DawgTalkers.net Forums Thread Like Summary - Fact Check Team: The future of religion in the United States

Fact Check Team: The future of religion in the United States

Holy Week, Passover and Ramadan celebrations are happening around the same time this year; a rare occurrence that only happens three times in a century.

Christianity has consistently been the largest religion in the United States but things could be changing. According to a recent report from Pew Research Center, as of 2020, Christianity was still the most practiced religion. However, it has declined 26% from the early 1990s.

Another big group is people that don’t necessarily identify with any religion. This group is also referred to as “nones” and accounted for 30% of the U.S. population. Other religions including Judaism, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism made up around 6%.

The report also found respondents that who leave their Christian faith said they usually just become unaffiliated from religion, and 31% of people raised Christian become unaffiliated between the ages of 15 and 29.

The same report from Pew Research Center also lists four potential scenarios for what the future of religion could look like in the U.S.

Overall, it found that depending on whether switching between religions continues at recent rates, speeds up or stops completely, Christianity will drop from 64% in 2020 to between a third and just over half of Americans by 2070.

Here’s a breakdown of what each of the four scenarios could look like according to the Pew Research report:

"Scenario 1: Steady switching – Christians would lose their majority but would still be the largest U.S. religious group in 2070

Switching assumption: Switching into and out of Christianity, other religions and the religiously unaffiliated category (“nones”) continues among young Americans (ages 15 to 29) at the same rates as in recent years. Most significantly, each new generation sees 31% of people who were raised Christian become religiously unaffiliated by the time they reach 30, while 21% of those who grew up with no religion become Christian.

Outcome: If switching among young Americans continued at recent rates, Christians would decline as a share of the population by a few percentage points per decade, dipping below 50% by 2060. In 2070, 46% of Americans would identify as Christian, making Christianity a plurality – the most common religious identity – but no longer a majority. In this scenario, the share of “nones” would not climb above 41% by 2070.

Scenario 2: Rising disaffiliation with limits – ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not a majority

Switching assumption: Continuing a recent pattern, switching out of Christianity becomes more common among young Americans as each generation sees a progressively larger share of Christians leave religion by the age of 30. However, brakes are applied to keep Christian retention (the share of people raised as Christians who remain Christian) from falling below about 50%.3 At the same time, switching into Christianity becomes less and less common, also continuing recent trends.

Outcome: If the pace of switching before the age of 30 were to speed up initially but then hold steady, Christians would lose their majority status by 2050, when they would be 47% of the U.S. population (versus 42% for the unaffiliated). In 2070, “nones” would constitute a plurality of 48%, and Christians would account for 39% of Americans.

Scenario 3: Rising disaffiliation without limits – ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070

Switching assumption: The share of Christians who disaffiliate by the time they reach 30 continues to rise with each successive generation, and rates of disaffiliation are allowed to continue rising even after Christian retention drops below 50% (i.e., no limit is imposed). As in Scenario 2, switching into Christianity among young Americans becomes less and less common.

Outcome: If the pace of switching before the age of 30 were to speed up throughout the projection period without any brakes, Christians would no longer be a majority by 2045. By 2055, the unaffiliated would make up the largest group (46%), ahead of Christians (43%). In 2070, 52% of Americans would be unaffiliated, while a little more than a third (35%) would be Christian.

Scenario 4: No switching – Christians would retain their majority through 2070

Switching assumption: This scenario imagines no person in America has changed or will change their religion after 2020. But even in that hypothetical situation, the religious makeup of the U.S. population would continue to shift gradually, primarily as a result of Christians being older than other groups, on average, and the unaffiliated being younger, with a larger share of their population of childbearing age.

Outcome: If switching had stopped altogether in 2020, the share of Christians would still decline by 10 percentage points over 50 years, reaching 54% in 2070. The unaffiliated would remain a substantial minority, at 34%."

The report says that the third scenario of rising disaffiliation with limits best shows what would happen if recent trends in the US continue and overall seems to most closely fit the patterns observed in recent years.

https://ktxs.com/news/nation-world/...2WeIo2NlRV_opPiCze3JLIHnYnXxVIbziPdaVKZI

Fundamentally, there is a big difference between a belief in God, and the following of a religion.

I have come to believe in an observation made by my father. There are thousands of religions in the world, if you believe that there is only true religion, chances are that you may be disappointed.

Still a Christian and not baffled by any of it

One thing you quickly can see is that there was nothing written about the "Christian religion". I believe it would be hard on one hand to strictly adhere to the second amendment by claiming the forefathers could somehow see into the future to understand that citizens would be carrying rifles made for war with the capacity to fire 30 rounds before reloading and then turn around in the next breath and try to translate that they were talking about various Christian religions only. I think those that wish to use the literal context in one place should be willing to use the literal context everywhere.

And when it comes to morality I agree that a certain chosen moral standard of some isn't broadly taught. But you see morality is a complex thing. What you consider certain moral standards others do not. The Bible teaches what man has written in a book and some think that should be taught to everyone. Still others have a totally different moral standard they believe in. Some think that you are who you are. That you are either born gay or you're not. Some feel gay marriage is okay. Some consider that a sin. The Bible is nothing but a religious view of morality. Something that should not be compelled learning for anyone.

Some of what I consider very moral people are not Christian. In fact they are not religious at all. They give to a lot of charities, love their neighbors, are respectful to others and above all, are not judgemental towards others who choose a different lifestyle or believe differently than themselves. Many Christians I know are the same way and very good people. But there's good and bad in both. Nobody has the market cornered on morality and good people. You see, I don't believe in ostracizing people because they are different. I don't make excuses to take away their rights, call them sinners and call that being Christian.

I'm not trying to say that you do. But let's face it, the very people that claim to represent the Christian base in this country often do. They wear it as a badge of honor and use it for political gain. I think that has a lot to do with why Christianity is having trouble keeping and gaining it's younger crowd more and more. I don't see anything wrong with saying you don't share some of those views about gay marriage, or the gay lifestyle. But when it gets to the brimstone and fire parts of such a message I don't feel Christianity is doing itself any favors.

I believe that God and Jesus Christ are about love. And often times these days that's not the message I see a lot of Christians sending. It seems when it comes to the love part, it's only they that God loves.

I think it helps explain the "none's" part of the original post. They love the teachings of Christ and the Bible. They just feel that religion as a whole doesn't represent the Bible and it's most precious message. That's why they consider themselves Christians but refuse to attach themselves to organized religion.

Now I'm not trying to get you to agree with me. I'm not even trying to convince you to change your mind. I'm just presenting you with a different perspective.