The forum kinda seems more like the Tailgate forum than the Pure Football forum. I thought it might be fun to take a look at the AFC contenders and talk a little football.
The AFC is loaded. It is far, far superior to the NFC. I can think of multiple AFC teams that might be the favorite if they were in the NFC. This is an early look and I make no claims that it is entirely valid. After all, there is no way I would have considered the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at this time last year.
East:
Buffalo: I consider them the best team in football. The main reason why is that Josh Allen is a superior qb. If I were to start an NFL franchise today, he would be #1 overall pick. I didn't like the guy before the draft. It demonstrates what a dart throw it is in evaluating collegiate qbs. This guy has grown tremendously as a passer. He is a great leader who is beloved by his teammates. He is an outstanding runner who keeps many drives alive when the play breaks down. I think they should try and harness in his running, though. He takes and delivers way too many big shots. Save that stuff for the playoffs. The D is pretty good and Von Miller will be a good leader for them. They have decent skilled players. The one concern I have is coaching and maybe generating a pass rush even though Miller will help. Totally blew the kickoff against KC and then allowed KC to score w/13 seconds left due to poor planning on D. They are still my favorite as best team.
Miami: They are all in. Have a pretty good D. Their OL was horrible last year, but Armstead will help. They have upgraded the skill positions and brought in a Shanny guy. I question Tua in regards to his ability to be a difference maker. The AFC is loaded with elite qbs and if you don't have one, you are on the outside looking in. They brought in Shanny's OC. He might be bright, but many coordinators fail in the HC role. I say........improved, but probably not a playoff team.
New England: They have the greatest coach of all-time. However, they have digressed talent wise from last season. They have the worst WR unit in the NFL. Out of the playoffs.
Jets: LMAO.......NO.
North:
Bengals: Burrow is the real deal. He is a natural born leader. Very accurate. Stays cool and resilient despite being hammered by the pass rush. They have a lot of talent and I think they have upgraded the league's worst OL, but I worry Joe might get hurt. He takes too many shots. If he goes down, they have no chance. They do have excellent skill players on O and some playmakers on D, but the D is somewhat inconsistent. I think they are a true contender, but I have a feeling they might take a step back this year.
Pittsburgh: Their OL is awful. They have good WRs, but Claypool is a head case. Najee is a good back, but makes some baffling decisions at times. Stop bouncing everything outside. The D is the D. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league. Trubisky was hampered by the idiot Nagy in Chi-town, but I am not sold on him and if you don't have a top flight qb in the AFC, you are doomed. I think they miss the playoffs.
Baltimore: No team had worse luck than Baltimore last year. They lost so much. Harbaugh is an excellent coach and Lamar is a gamer. They have a good secondary if healthy. The WRs aren't very good. The OL regressed. They should not be good, but they find ways to win. Hard to count them out even if the mind tells you they don't belong.
Browns: Huge upgrade at qb. Maybe the best OL in the league. Great RBs. Very good HC. Excellent OL coach. Lost their excellent WRs. The negative energy surrounding Watson could get heavy on the team's psyche. A suspension would be devastating to their chances. However, unlike many Baker fans, most people know the Browns have one of the best rosters in then entire league. They have a shot.
South:
Tennessee: Overlooked every year, yet they still win. Vrabel is a good coach. Tough as nails and so is his team. Their D was terrible two years ago but improved last year. Great running game. Tannehill is pretty good at times, but laid a huge egg in the playoffs. This is a weak division. They have a shot to win division, but I don't think they go far in playoffs.
Indy: This is the team Baker wanted to go to. I knew they wouldn't trade for him because they did not want to replace one emotional midget [Wentz] w/another. Ryan is steady, but he is 38 {I think} and past his prime. They have a good team, but desperately need a LT. Their WRs are questionable and lost their TE to retirement. They need an Edge guy. Solid team that could challenge for the division, but not a real threat in the playoffs.
Jags: No.
Houston: LOL
West:
KC: While I like what they did in the trading of Hill, there is no one player that can replace the Cheetah. He changes the way DC's game plan. Their D is pretty weak and they are losing Mathieu. Their OL is solid, but not as good as at least one analyst thinks. They still have a great qb, but he showed some signs of vulnerability last year. They do have the most established coach in the division.......by far. I won't be surprised if they represent the conference in the Super Bowl or miss the playoffs.
LA Chargers: Great qb. This guy would be my second overall pick after Allen. Big, strong, gun, mobile, good attitude. He has it all. Chargers loaded up on D to really improve that unit. OL is still a bit of a concern. Very good WRs. My issue w/them is their HC. Dude lost them several games last year. As a former coach, I hate coaches who want to be the show. Your job is to facilitate the players and put them in the best position to succeed. It's about the players......not you and your arrogant, stubborn self. Going for it on your own 18 yard line w/the playoffs on the line. Calling TO in that same game that allowed the Raiders to kick the winning FG. Countless times when you chased points. Hard to overcome incompetent coaching. It's a shame, because this roster is loaded. They still have a shot due to that talent, but someone needs to slap some sense into their HC.
Denver: Talented roster. Excellent D. Good RBs and WRs. Lost Fant at TE. Wilson was a huge get for them, but I wonder about him. I was kinda hoping the Browns would go for him, but he really isn't that great from the pocket. He drifts too deep due to his short stature and takes on sacks that the OL gets blamed for. He is a great creator, but seems to fade later in seasons.......at least for the last 3 years. I'd rather have Watson than him. Their HC is bright, but he is another first-time HC and you don't know what you will get. They have a true shot, but I say they miss out because they are playing in what might be the best division in the history of the NFL.
Las Vegas: I think McDaniels is one of the better offensive minds in football. The team improved their roster significantly. Carr is pretty good, but did anyone else notice how long he held on to the ball in the playoff game. That is a no-no. Very good team, but the division is too tough.
I'm going to put them in the order in which I think they will finish in their division.
East -
Buffalo - Josh Allen is the real deal. He would not be my number one overall pick if starting a franchise today. That would be Mahomes for me, but he's up there. Way up there. He'd probably be the second guy on my list for all the reasons you state. Total package.
New England / Miami - these teams are interchangeable to me. I don't think either QB is very good.
Jets - Zack Wilson might have played some of the worst quarterback I've ever seen in my life last year. He was 10 times worse than Deshone Kizer. I just can't see a big jump here.
North -
Baltimore - the worst luck I've ever seen a franchise have with regards to injuries. I agree Harbaugh is a superior coach. I also think Lamar comes back with a vengeance. Coaching, quarterback play, defense. They will be the class of the north next year.
Cleveland / Cincy - Torn on these two. I am in the minority that thinks Burrow is overrated. His pop gun arm is not sustainable. The number of hail marys he throws up every game is not sustainable. Watch every single playoff game and you can't convince me he was the reason they were in the Super Bowl. Very average. Everything broke right for them including staying incredibly healthy. For the Browns, if Watson gets suspended it will be a wasted season. If he doesn't, I have some reservations on how good a coach Stefanski can be with an elite QB.
Pittsburgh - Tomlin has never had a losing season. I think he gets his first.
West -
KC - Still the class of the AFC, imo, with the best quarterback.
LAC - I was a late adopter on Herbert. Can't deny his talent. Total package. I would probably list the best QBs in the league as Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert.
Denver - How much does Wilson have left?
LV - They still have Derek Carr. I've never seen a QB play so hot and cold in the same season. I don't think it was a coincidence he saw his first playoff action in like 8 or 9 seasons.
South -
Tennesse - Class of the south. Don't see that changing.
Jags - Trevor Lawrence takes a huge step forward.
Indy - Matt Ryan is an awful QB. Just awful. Indy will end up wasting a pretty decent roster.
At this time, it's way up in the air, I'd say start by removing a team, out of contention than put one in, because there are so many teams in the AFC in position to do real well. Broncos, -minus, they won't win it all or even their div. imo, because a new Qb will take adjusting time.
Browns - for the same reason, not only new QB, but new Wr's, it's just going to take some time and continuity, which hurts their chances in 2022.
Colts, I think removing the colts, and returning that the Titans will run away with that div. is at least partly or more than 55% likely.
The AFC East, to Remove the Dolphins is not something easy to do, but I will, I'll take the Dolphins again out of contention because even though I'm looking at a big draft haul, I think they have a lot of picks, they will be first year guys, but bottom line, even though they are doing so much right Dolphins bottom line, if I had any faith in Tua , Which I don't, in fact I think tua is a Shoe-in? to blow things with bad play. If they had a real Qb they'd be much more dangerous.
So in the East it comes to the Bills and Patriots, and I think the Patriots make it close and get a WC, but the Bills win that div.
In the North I think it will come down to the Ravens and Bengals, and just out of history and league bias' I have to believe it's going to be the Ravens' as div winners, and who knows what the bengals will do.
In the West, I have mad respect for the Chargers QB, but, there is always something that the Chargers do to not win the Div, but, I think, there is a good probability that the Chiefs, have their worst year in 3 or 4 years.
That leaves the Raiders, and the Raiders are going to ... well the Div will come down to the Chiefs and Raiders imo, the only question is will they both have 11(12)+ wins or both have closer to 10 or less wins.
To give the strongest reply, I think the Browns, Colts, Dolphins, and Broncos will be the least likely to gain a playoff berth, at this point.
Buffalo: I think Josh Allen is a little overrated only because most people as in Browns fans wanted a bigger QB then what was handed to them in Baker. I think some simply used Josh Allen as an attempt to not accept Baker. Josh seems inconsistent except for the 2020 season.
Miami: I had them for the sleeper team last season, Tua doesn't look like the QB that can lead a team, and there seems to be a dark cloud over the skies of Miami.
New England : Had one heck of a mid to late run, Bill's time is nearing like Coach K's from Duke. Will Pat's play for a last season championship to send off the goat ? Who knows and who knows if this is his last season.
Jets : This is the team that just may be the surprise of the East. I think Joe Douglass is putting together a fairly good team. Signing Daniels,Diggs,Williams,Peppers, Howard,Richardson,Hooker,Phillips and Higgins. may not be great,but mostly improved .
Bengals: I believe Joe Burrows loving the deep pass will eventually catch up to him. I also believe they will take a step back, due to the deep pass.
Steelers: I agree with all you stated. If they do pick up Baker as stated under the right conditions by the Steelers or Media, then I predict them having less than a stellar year.
Baltimore : I can't agree with them having the worst luck of any team, (see Browns )
Browns : I agree with all except for the loss of excellent receivers, I do agree that the Browns should be top in the AFCN, Thought that last season.
I have to bail on the rest of the post, will try to get back on the rest. I like this thread Vers good job posting it ! Good football ball talk. Thank you !
Bills. There is alot to to like about this team. Brandon Beane is one of the best GMs In the NFL. He has quietly built a powerhouse crew around Josh Allen. They have real emerging WR in Gabriel Davis. Adding Von Miller already adds to A solid front 7. Tra'Darious White returns at CB. Not alot of weaknesses on this team
Jets. Robert Saleh has a plan. Zack Wilson has more firepower around him.on offense This year. People forget, they beat the Bengals year. They could finish around 9-8 or 8-9 Depending on Wilsons growth
Pats. This team may not win 6 games in 2022. They let their best olinemen go in FA Mac Jones has the tools to be solid QB. But his WR room looks like Manginis WR room With the Browns. No Josh McDaniels will affect the offense
Dolphins. Huge expectations with all these new faces on offense. Tyreek Hill might be slapping Tua like Will Smith slapped Chris Rock. Tua isnt Mahomes. Already their new HC will be Expected to win right out the gate.
AFC South Colts. Another year another washed up QB brought in. The Colts choked down the stretch This division is weak so it.comes down to which QB is playing the best in the last half Of the season. I think this team will go as far as Ryan takes them Taylor is the best RB in the.game but RBs dont put teams in the playoffs
Titans Mike Vrbal is a good coach. But how patient will the Adams family be? Titans window is closing. Tanneyhill simply is the lesser QBs of 2 in the playoffs. Titans should win the South. But they were exposed by the Bengals in the playoffs
Jags. Quick fact. No.team has spent more $$$$ in FA since 2016 than the Jags. And that approach has failed. But I.think Better days lie ahead. Lawrence will finally get some solid coaching around him. No drama. But everything is dependant on his growth. Still not a playoff team
Texans. This could be a sleeper team in 2023. There is no pressure to win now Davis Mills played really good in the last half of 2021. The Texans have 5 picks in the 80. If they can get some home run picks In this draft it bids well for the future.
AFC West Chargers. One of the best rosters in the AFC. Herbert is a future HoF. He does everything well as a QB. Vision, anticipation, leadership, rocket arm He is everything Mayfield isnt. Resigning Williams was huge. Adding Jackson and Mack Was incredible. To go with Bosa and James. SB contender
Raiders. Watchout. This team is ready make noise. Carr is going to really lightup The scoreboard with Adams, Waller, Renfro and Jacobs
Broncos . Pairing Wilson with a great running game should bode well. A healthy Jerry Jeudy should really help open things up. Patrick really came on Last year. Broncos have rock solid defense to compliment the offense Should make Wildcard
Chiefs. Hard to believe this team might miss playoffs in 2022. They will score points But can they stop anyone? Hardeman is really to take over as #1-WR. But Kelce will find out his role just got harder with no Hill.
AfC North. Bengals. The surprise team of 2021 just got better with the oline additions. Hard to believe but JaMarr Chase can get better. Tee Higgins is legit. And Joe Burrow can concentrate on his growth and not rehab now The Bengals,D didnt lose anyone other than Ogenjobi. Plus they get edge rusher Ossai back. Come draft day they can draft BPA I got them and L.A in AFC title game
Ravens. A healthy Ravens team is a playoff team. They have the best secondary In the AFC. Their oline gets Staley back. And they get their starting backfield back Bateman needs to emerge at WR this year. Andrews is the best TE around
Browns. On paper the Browns look like terrors. But that has been said for 3 years Now. Its a myth the Browns have the best oline in the NFL. New center. Willis is Inconsistent. The Browns dline needs help. So both sides of trenches need help Watson brings a legit arm to the offense. And KS doesnt have to rely on designed Boots or rollouts in order to get the ball past 25 yds The Browns defense is very good. But can it shut down guys like Hebert and Allen ? The Browns should be a wild card team this year. But dont surprised if it misses The playoffs again
Steelers. A Mike Tomlin team is always well prepared. But OC Matt Canada and Trubisky Need to get in sync. I think the offense will do enough to score 20 a game But again its the defense that will be asked to be the identity of this team Somehow Tomlin has this team in the playoff conversation sach year
I think they might be better than the forecast. While Ryan is getting older, he might be entering that new prime.
The guy is in good shape, still has a good arm. and while listed as a good QB, the change in scenery might get him back in to the very good range. He was called Matty Ice for a reason, and I don't think that goes away. I think it will get better with age.
While LT might be a question mark, they still have a very good OL, a solid run game always helps a QB, and IMO a QB makes receivers as much as talent makes receivers, so I expect to see the receivers look much better with the addition of Ryan over having Wentz tossing them the ball.
The D, while unspectacular is still a solid unit. I think they can make some waves.
As for the Browns, chemisty is always important, but I think Watson is going to being the right elements to the O. The key will be how we fare if/when Watson is suspended. The key is how we hold up with Brissett at QB for however long, if in fact he does have to play. I'd say we need to play at least .500 ball, if not a game over.
If Watson is suspended 6 games and we are 2-4, I don't know how realistic it is to expect we win 9-10 games the rest of the way. There is bound to be a bit of a transition period involved once he comes back. I guess how long that transition takes will tell the story. If we win 9 we are probably good. If we win 7, probably not. 8 leaves up hoping someone loses the last game of the season.
And there you go again. Vers has been telling us all how Pure Football looks like the Tailgate lot. It's becoming a trend. The fact you ignore that is your business. Somehow you think I give a damn what you think about my posts. I don't. You keep doing you.
Right now I see us behind Cincy, Buffalo, the Chargers, and Denver.
Cincy's biggest weakness was their OLine and they shored that up by signing Karras, Cappa, and Collins. If they can improve their defense some more I think they can very well be the team to beat in the AFC.
Buffalo is very good, I just think they lack the offensive fire power Cincy has.
The Chargers with the additions of Khalil Mack and JC Jackson have one scary defense and I think Herbert is a very under-rated QB.
Denver I always thought had a lot of talent, they just lacked at the QB position. If Wilson can return to his old self and put 2021 behind him I think that makes Denver an instant contender in the AFC.
Some very good replies. Many of us see it in similar ways, w/a few differences of opinion. All I know, it's going to be crazy in this conference this year.
Cincy is a contender, but I can't see them doing as well next year even with an improved O-line. They were one of the healthiest teams last year, if not the healthiest. I expect a regression to the mean on that front next year.
I said the same thing about Tampa Bay last year, even though they brought everyone back, and look how that turned out.
The forum kinda seems more like the Tailgate forum than the Pure Football forum.
Thank God you came back to fix it.
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
Originally Posted by Ballpeen
Trolling once again.
And there you go again. Vers has been telling us all how Pure Football looks like the Tailgate lot. It's becoming a trend. The fact you ignore that is your business. Somehow you think I give a damn what you think about my posts. I don't. You keep doing you.
I'm continually amazed how quick you can go from snark to fake outrage.
As for the earlier question, our path to the playoffs (now more than ever) runs through our division. The AFC is stacked, and there are going to be very good teams not getting in, so it becomes that much more important for us to take care of our own division. I don't see Cinci as a threat as I think we will continue to match up extremely well against them (but I was also crapping on them all last year pretty much up until the SB... so what do I know?). I think Burrow should come back to Earth a bit, if for no other reason than he got hit a ton last year. He escaped another injury-shortened season on by the grace of Mary. I don't see their investment in the Oline as being much of a mitigation in that regard, but I'm still hoping that we end up with a solid interior Dline. Our DE's will still eat their tackles for lunch, and our secondary is only going to get more solid with time in the system. Baltimore will be an issue, IMO. While we had crazy injury issues last year, Baltimore made us look healthy comparison. I expect them to come out of the gate on fire. Pittsburgh will scrap together wins like they always do. I expect their D to re-solidify and they're going to feature Najee, which will make life tough for us when we play them, but I still don't expect them to be in the mix.
Denver: up for sale, that may affect the season for them. New owner could come in with their views of what they want. Could happen could not .
Raider Nation ! I love them ! Carr had Renfrow (2021 pro bowl) , Waller (2020 pro bowl) as WR and TE. Now he has Adams along with Robinson. I feel he won't be holding onto the ball as long, better coach better players, I see them competing for the AFC Championship.
Carr is also one of three QB's that had three back to back seasons with over 4000 yds. The other two were Mahomes and Rodgers.
No sense in me running down the AFC team by team, others have done a better job, nice overviews despite the different opinions.
It was a refresher for me. I was so disgruntled by the end of the season, it was a chore to watch the Super Bowl... especially with the Bengals playing.
A few things come to mind with the AFC:
The "Arms Race" is in full gear. I think the Browns did well to land their ace. Should be exciting.
Any Given Sunday became a little "top heavy" as the season went on. We can talk about all these great QBs, but they basically watched things even out as they all beat the crap out of each other... with no real rhyme or reason to the who, what, where, when, how.
For all the great, or seemingly great teams and QBs, only three teams finished better than 10-7. One of those teams had Ryan Tannehill behind center. Again, the upper-tier teams cancelled each other out record-wise.
AS for me as a Browns fan; not afraid of the Bengals, laughing at the Steelers, and looking forward to the Ravens imploding (my opinion). Jackson's history of checking out mentally/ not controlling his emotions is not good. I think the injury bug will bite him again this year as well.
I'm predicting a six game suspension for Watson, although I'm not actually sure if that will take place this season. If so, we need to go 3-3 and not 2-4 to have a puncher's chance at the division.
Funny that you mentioned the Ravens' bad luck. Lamar's injury was devastating, but they also won at least three games early in the season that should have never been won.
Not too many people have mentioned the obvious in relation to them losing their last six games. It was a JOK sack that put Lamar down for the count. Nothing dirty either... he was a guided missile. Lamar will always know where he is on the field. Pretty cool that we all echoed what the FO was thinking in drafting him -- "the answer" to Lamar Jackson. What a difference maker.
I heard on the radio yesterday (so take it with a grain of salt) that there were rumors of Brady getting traded to Miami. I have no idea how credible, if at all, that is. But if it happens, geez. The AFC is an ever-escalating arms race.
AS for me as a Browns fan; not afraid of the Bengals, laughing at the Steelers, and looking forward to the Ravens imploding (my opinion). Jackson's history of checking out mentally/ not controlling his emotions is not good. I think the injury bug will bite him again this year as well.
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
2. Projected win totals for all 32 teams
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for the 2022 NFL season and in news that probably won't surprise you, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL. The Bucs have an Over/Under of 11.5 wins, which is tied with the Bills.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals. Lowest totals. The Falcons, Jets and Texans all have an Over/Under of five wins or less, which is the lowest in the NFL. The Texans are in Year 2 of a rebuild and the Jets are the Jets, so it isn't that surprising to see them so low. As for the Falcons, they just traded away their long-time franchise QB, so the oddsmakers in Vegas clearly aren't expecting much from them this year.
No respect for Super Bowl teams. The two Super Bowl teams from 2021 aren't getting much respect. The Rams (10.5) are tied for the fourth-highest projected win total while the Bengals (9.5) are tied for the 10th highest total.
No respect for 2021 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an Over/Under lower than nine and those four teams are the Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Eagles (8.5) and Steelers (7.5). The Steelers make sense because they just lost Ben Roethlisberger. The Raiders win total is low because they play in the toughest division in the NFL, but as for the other two, the numbers for Philadelphia, and especially New England, feel low. I might just go ahead and bet the over on the both the Eagles and Patriots right now.
Oddsmakers are high on the AFC West. There are nine teams with an Over/Under of 10 or more wins and the most notable part of that fact is that three of those nine teams are from the AFC West with the Chiefs (10.5), Chargers (10) and Broncos (10) all having a double-digit win total. With an Over/Under of 8.5, the Raiders are the only AFC West team that didn't crack double digits.
Here are the all win totals for all 32 teams from highest to lowest (win totals via Caesars Sports Book): Bills (11.5), Buccaneers (11.5), Packers (11.5), Chiefs (10.5), Cowboys (10.5), Rams (10.5), Broncos (10), Chargers (10), 49ers (10), Bengals (9.5), Browns (9.5), Colts (9.5), Ravens (9.5), Titans (9.5), Cardinals (9), Dolphins (8.5), Eagles (8.5), Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Vikings (8.5), Commanders (7.5), Saints (7.5), Steelers (7.5), Giants (7), Bears (6.5), Jaguars (6.5), Lions (6.5), Panthers (6), Seahawks (6), Falcons (5.5), Jets (5.5), Texans (4.5).
Tyler Sullivan put together a list of best bets for these win totals and you can check those out by clicking here (Spoiler alert: He likes the Jets going over 5.5 wins).
Cincy is a contender, but I can't see them doing as well next year even with an improved O-line. They were one of the healthiest teams last year, if not the healthiest. I expect a regression to the mean on that front next year.
I said the same thing about Tampa Bay last year, even though they brought everyone back, and look how that turned out.
Odds simply say they won't make the SuperBowl. As for winning the division, no matter how we look at it, they are the champs. I still think the ravens are the ones we will need to beat.
As many of us have mentioned, the AFC is loaded w/very good qbs. I want to bring up the playoff game between Buffalo and KC because I was not an active member of the board when the game was played. That was the most entertaining game I have ever witnessed. Every time I counted Buffalo out, Josh Allen would lead them to another improbable score. I remember not wanting the Browns to draft the dude and many experts felt the same way about him, but damn, this guy is awesome!. Truth be told, I didn't think Mahomes was all-that in college, as well. It's proof that evaluating how excellent collegiate qbs will translate to the NFL is a crap-shoot.
Josh Allen is as tough as nails. He was willing his team to victory. If there ever was evidence in the phrase "heroic in defeat," Allen was the epitome of that in that playoff game. I also remember texting w/several family members during the game and at one point, I jokingly texted that Buffalo gave Mahomes too much time. I think it was 13 seconds. Well, the dumb-ass coaching staff did not squib the kickoff and their shell defense was a huge blunder. Mahomes and Reid came up big in the clutch and tied the game. Incredible.
Sorry, I just wanted to talk about that game w/some of you guys. I remember thinking we had no shot of ever beating teams w/qbs like Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs w/the qb we had. I do think Watson can compete w/those guys so we have a shot if we can restore the talent on our roster to where it was two years ago. We lost key pieces in OBJ, Landry, and Tretter. We also need a DE. Hopefully, Berry will continue to build the roster.
and to think Allen could have and should have been a Brown.
Another case of "The King" screwing the pooch.
To be fair, a lot of the experts had concerns with Allen. A lot of ability, but raw. Buffalo took a gamble on him and it paid off. I read somewhere that every off-season Allen identifies a part of his game to improve and works with an expert to do so. Him recognizing that he needs to improve and then finding someone who can help him do that has really paid off. You see the improvement in his play.
They say that hindsight is 20/20 but sometimes it doesn't appear so. In his last two years at Wyoming he completed 50% and 50.3% of his passes. And that's against very poor competition. Most all people questioned his rawness and accuracy. It was a huge gamble to project him into becoming the QB he is now. But never mind all of that.
First off - it was 56% and 56.3% in his last 2 years, not 50% and we have been through this before. Players with less than 60% completion percentage in college:
1. Brett Favre 2. Dan Marino 3. Russell Wilson 4. Carson Palmer 5. The list goes on...
As for the level of competition - another fallacy in determining things: Roethlisberger, Wentz, Flacco, Lance, Warner, any QB facing Big 12 defenses, etc.
Allen - 6'5" 240 lbs, great athleticism with a missile arm, intelligent, competitive, and hard working. Hindsight, my ass. It's called projection and Allen projected well above anyone in that draft, in my opinion. Well worth the risk for a team coming off 1 win in 2 years - "experts" - please. Dorsey wanted him some Mayfield before he was even hired. All he could say was he was a "Leader of Men". How'd that work out for the Browns.
Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair.
Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair.
Then I won't remind you that in 2017 we could have had Garret and Watson as the first rounders, instead of Garret and Peppers. O wait, they did pick up Njoku with the last of the 3 number one round picks at 29.
At the time the Browns had Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan as QB's, but to get even better the Browns got lucky because DeShone Kizer fell to them in the second round ! Oh my !
I think the 3rd round pick of Larry Ogunjobi was my second favorite pick other than Myles.
Going down the heart break lane or draft bust failure lane !!!
I love the kid. It will be fun to watch him progress and become a better QB. I think he will. I don't think we'll see him do that in Cleveland. I don't think our FO see themselves in the position to take the risk.
"Inconsistent and not accurate", yes... but not as bad as people make it seem. Most also agree that he can be much more efficient with something as simple (and coachable) as proper footwork and balance.
TBH, I question the few points of completion percentage being some "kiss of death". Trade 2-3 completions per game for a QB that can throw any pass, to any part of the field, at any velocity? And runs like Gronk in the open field?? Sign me up.
I hope he lands in a good position to grow as an NFL QB... I just hope it's not with a different team in the AFC North.
I was a huge proponent. Argued with just about everyone on here about drafting him. Biggest mistake in Browns draft history. Everybody was way to hung up on his completion percentage and couldn't see the forest through the trees. They missed the part where he threw with touch OR through a brick wall, missed the part (which many argued with me about) that he already played at NFL speed... worked through progressions as well as any college QB I've ever seen.
We screwed the pooch because we were afraid of the risk... and thought we made the "safe" pick in Mayfield.
Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair.
Then I won't remind you that in 2017 we could have had Garret and Watson as the first rounders, instead of Garret and Peppers. O wait, they did pick up Njoku with the last of the 3 number one round picks at 29.
At the time the Browns had Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan as QB's, but to get even better the Browns got lucky because DeShone Kizer fell to them in the second round ! Oh my !
I think the 3rd round pick of Larry Ogunjobi was my second favorite pick other than Myles.
Going down the heart break lane or draft bust failure lane !!!
SMH !!!!!!!
Someone posted a tweet reflecting on the 2012 (I think?) draft. He was a draft twitter guy looking back at an old bad take. Then they asked how people felt about their team's 1st round. I felt like I wanted to throw my phone.
Well, my team traded up to number 3 for an RB. His name was Trent Richardson, and he seemed to have a deathly fear of Mack truck-sized holes. Same year we used another first rounder on an octogenarian (okay, okay, he wasn't quite that old) QB that couldn't find his way out from under a flag named Brandon "Flipping" Weeden. Russell Wilson went 53 picks later. Bleh, all the studs in that class and those were the two we ended up with.
Baker is done. I supported him the whole time he was here. I was even on the "excuse train" for a while because I had seen what he could do at his best. I still always knew it was a mistake to pick him over Allen but it wasn't hard to roll with Baker. I also knew that the league was all-in on athletic QBs that could make things happen with their legs... and the days of prototypical drop back QB were about over.
Watson is our QB now, therefore he is "my QB" now. I'm a football fan. It's not that I just wave a hand at all his bs off the field, it's creepy as hell. He's got a lot of work to become a better person. Hopefully, after the legal bs is over he can at least apologize for being a pervert. I doubt that he will, but in the end, actions speak louder anyway.
None of that ^ makes me feel any better about passing on Allen. If the football gods were to cast the perfect QB from a mold it would be Josh Allen... and the tools; the athleticism, size, strength, arm, toughness, attitude, etc, etc... those things are simply un-coachable. Looking back at 2018 and my excitement for the draft, I saw the perfect answer to shifting the power balance in the AFC North -- Big Ben on his way out and the Steelers having to find an answer to Paul Bunyan at QB in Cleveland. Still will never understand how experts just swept all of that under a rug over two/ three "inaccurate" passes per game.
One of the bigger problems with evaluating QBs in the draft is that it's hard to predict growth and development or the environment they'll end up in. I liked Lamar, but I had no faith in Hue to maximize his abilities/utilization. Rosen went to the Cardinals with a first time HC in Wilkes, Leftwich took over as a 1st time OC partway through the season, and his entire OL except for his rookie center missed half the season. His number 1 receiver was Larry Fitzgerald, but it was a 35 y/o Larry. His 2nd and 3rd receivers were fellow rookie Christian Kirk and Chad Williams. He then went to Miami with another defensively minded 1st time HC in Flores and 1st time OC in Chad O'Shea. Josh Allen had a slightly more stable start. Sean McDermott was in his 2nd year in Buffalo coming off a winning season. Daboll had been an OC 4 years in the pros and 1 year at Alabama. Allen still only went 5-6 his rookie year with a 10-12 td-int ratio. He did get to stay with the same HC/OC combo for 4 years, and they brought in Diggs for him.
Fit and support are important in the success or failure of QBs, particularly young ones. A QB's willingness to fit might also play a role. I don't know if that was part of the Baker/Browns breakdown or not.
Pffft... not even close. In a sense, you have to get lucky, look at the track record of NFL top picks at QB... look at the Browns track record! Remember Manning and Leaf? 1a and 1b, right??
Allen was easy, you just had to get past the media driven narrative that fans turned into "can't hit the barn-side of a broad".
We (they) do that with high profile draft prospects every year. When the media is belaboring that one, glaring hole... it's usually a good sign to look past it and deeper.
Where is your list of the thousands of QB's that DIDN'T make it when throwing for less than 60%? A hand full verses thousands doesn't make for a very good argument.
Fate, if it makes you feel better I don't think Allen would have made it to his 3rd year here. His first two years his stats and play weren't good enough for our fans and media. It's amazing what happens when you allow someone to grow.
Fate, if it makes you feel better I don't think Allen would have made it to his 3rd year here. His first two years his stats and play weren't good enough for our fans and media. It's amazing what happens when you allow someone to grow.
Not being confrontational, but I don't agree w/that. Allen was wild when we first saw him in the league, but the physical ability just jumped off the screen. The guy also won over his teammates and has really worked on his game. Additionally, most of the fan base and local media have given Baker more credit than I thought he ever deserved. Once again, it's really hard to evaluate collegiate qbs because the transition is so great.
The best talent evaluators in the football world struggle to project how these high-flying qbs will do in the league. Think about it. Goff and Wentz have been so disappointing. Baker and Darnold went before Allen. Rosen went way before Lamar. Tua ahead of Herbert. Trubisky ahead of Mahomes and Watson. LOL.......it's crazy. And I haven't even mentioned guys like Jamarcus Russel, RG III, Daniel Jones, etc.
I agree, unless the QB comes out of the gate performing like a 10-15 year established QB the fans and media will crucify the player. I've been watching it for decades and it certainly would have happened to Allen. It's going to happen to Watson too. The expectations are too high for him not to fail. Would it be acceptable to make the playoffs - win 1 game - then be eliminated? If so, where's the upgrade since Mayfield already achieved that goal. The margin for error for a 230M QB is going to be a lot smaller and the negative feed back will be greater.
I think the market for Watson and Baker speaks for itself in regards to upgrade. I have no problem w/you liking Baker, but Watson is a far superior qb.
Not to be over-looked is the situation(s) that players were drafted into...Mahomes went to a perfect situation...Allen and Jackson to very solid situations...Mayfield and Darnold to terrible situations.
Goff and Wentz are even more disappointing when considering their drafted-into situations. I don't remember the Texans prior to drafting DW.
People act like Cleveland is some pressure cooker that is unique to the market. There are way more harsh environments for QBs. People won’t quit Baker because he “won” a playoff game and opened up beer fridges. If a QB has any modicum of success with the Browns the city will fall all over itself to love him. People on here thought Brian Hoyer was a franchise QB because he had a winning record.
Fate, if it makes you feel better I don't think Allen would have made it to his 3rd year here. His first two years his stats and play weren't good enough for our fans and media. It's amazing what happens when you allow someone to grow.
Not being confrontational, but I don't agree w/that. Allen was wild when we first saw him in the league, but the physical ability just jumped off the screen. The guy also won over his teammates and has really worked on his game. Additionally, most of the fan base and local media have given Baker more credit than I thought he ever deserved. Once again, it's really hard to evaluate collegiate qbs because the transition is so great.
The best talent evaluators in the football world struggle to project how these high-flying qbs will do in the league. Think about it. Goff and Wentz have been so disappointing. Baker and Darnold went before Allen. Rosen went way before Lamar. Tua ahead of Herbert. Trubisky ahead of Mahomes and Watson. LOL.......it's crazy. And I haven't even mentioned guys like Jamarcus Russel, RG III, Daniel Jones, etc.
I don't agree either. It was an easy thing to latch onto as we watched his inconsistency early on.
And yes, exactly what I was eager to type as I read through the rest of the comments... JUMPED off the screen. Despite the learning curve, Buffalo knew they made the right move as soon as he took the field, and teammates knew they had a leader in the locker room.
I don't know. There's the whole Hue throwing any and everyone under the bus angle to consider. He'd have probably wanted the rookie to earn the spot/pay his dues and sit behind the earth-moving RGIII (although it was actually Tyrod in 2018) . A la Chubb and Hyde. Allen might have developed similarly here, but he might not have. We were a mess.
When Trubisky signed with PIT he mentioned that the top thing he learned in Buffalo was to play loose. I feel like Hue was the opposite and harped on not making mistakes. I don't know if that would have been a fit for Allen. ...and then there was Freddie....
I was listening to a radio show this weekend who talked about this topic. The consensus: Cleveland isn’t a contender because of the unknown surrounding Watson’s suspension
and to think Allen could have and should have been a Brown.
Another case of "The King" screwing the pooch.
To be fair, a lot of the experts had concerns with Allen. A lot of ability, but raw. Buffalo took a gamble on him and it paid off. I read somewhere that every off-season Allen identifies a part of his game to improve and works with an expert to do so. Him recognizing that he needs to improve and then finding someone who can help him do that has really paid off. You see the improvement in his play.
He was hot garbage his first couple years in the league, and that would've been right around the Freddie era (IIRC). There's is no way he would've survived the Browns, and vice-versa.
TLDR: Low overall ranking with some glaring issues. Good news/bad news, it was an improvement over his rookie year.
"[...] While these are positive steps for Allen, he was the lowest-rated playoff quarterback on the list. Of qualified signal callers, Allen was only ahead of Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Case Keenum, Mason Rudolph, and Kyle Allen."
He came into the NFL as a project. He had a rough go for the first couple years, which ended up fine since Buffalo has been a model of stability since getting McDermidt (sp?). The Browns, however, still had Hue going into the season Allen was drafted, then Freddie. It doesn't take a crystal ball to predict what would've happened here.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
I'm thinking the Titans could make some noise. I don't know if it is entirely unexpected. They're bound to have better injury luck. I think the Colts might regress (particularly on D with a transition to a new DC) and the Texans and Jags aren't very good. Healthy Derrick Henry and AJ Brown with a nice defense on the other side is kind of an outlier in what opposing teams are used to preparing/building for facing.
Baltimore is likely to rebound as well.
I think the Bengals might regress despite the OL upgrades. It looks like they should face a tougher schedule this year than last. They'll be the hunted and DCs will have the whole off-season to come up with plans to try to stop them.
I have no idea what the Dolphins will do. The D is back DC and all, and if the O reaches it's ceiling they'll be dangerous. Of course, the O could just as easily be a discombobulated mess.
Good football talk. I wasn't thinking of the Titans because they were the number one seed. Baltimore was devastated by injuries, so I agree w/you. The Dolphins could be a team to watch. I'm not too high on Tua, though. I guess Denver could make big strides now that they got Russ and Randy Gregory. Tampa Bay went from a 7 win team to winning the Super Bowl when they got rid of Jamis and lured Brady to Florida. The Browns could be a lot better than an 8 win team, but I think a lot of people recognize the talent they have.
I think it's going to be a really fun year. Of course, there were a lot of great games last year and things changed from week to week and the playoff games were the most exciting I've seen in all my many years.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
At this moment im looking at the Steelers as a sleeper team. In 2021 they had a oline decimated by injury and unproven starters. No cohesion. Defense was hit hard by no Tuitt to anchor the middle. LB play was inconsistent. Yet somehow Tomlin has this team in the playoffs. Trubisky took a lesser Bears roster to the playoffs. Najee Harris really came on strong toward the end of 2021. And not to forget. The Steelers beat the Bills in 2021. The AFC North has legit defenses. Ravens Bengals Steelers. Playmakers all 3-levels Watson went up against cupcake AFC South defenses in his tenure in Houston.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
At this moment im looking at the Steelers as a sleeper team. In 2021 they had a oline decimated by injury and unproven starters. No cohesion. Defense was hit hard by no Tuitt to anchor the middle. LB play was inconsistent. Yet somehow Tomlin has this team in the playoffs. Trubisky took a lesser Bears roster to the playoffs. Najee Harris really came on strong toward the end of 2021. And not to forget. The Steelers beat the Bills in 2021. The AFC North has legit defenses. Ravens Bengals Steelers. Playmakers all 3-levels Watson went up against cupcake AFC South defenses in his tenure in Houston.
You’re correct about Watson playing weak in division D’s while at Houston. Has anyone seen a breakdown of how Watson has played against the AFCN?
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
Denver with Wilson is an obvious choice. I think that Miami might surprise. Baltimore was 4th in the AFCN, and I think that they could contend. I really don't see much from the other "weaker" teams, that didn't make big off-season moves.
Jacksonville could surprise, with their additions and some improvement under Center .... who knows? Can Trevor Lawrence take that big a step forward?
Doing a little looking, Watson’s record against the AFCN… Bengals 1-1 Browns 2-1 Steelers 0-1 Ravens 0-2
I threw out the Browns’ games stats as I was only looking at common AFCN opponents. Watson’s stat line against the AFCN is as follows…
In the 5 games he’s plays our foes he’s gone 101/149 which is a 67% completion rate. He’s thrown for 1157 yards, equating to 231.4 yards per game. He’s thrown 6 TDs to his 3 interceptions.
Hmmm, and he's 1-4 against the competition. 231.4 yards per game fits right in with the Stefanski depress the pass offense. Imagine the posts here when the Browns lose games 20-17 or 17-14 with our 230M QB throwing for a little over 200 yards per game? This is not the AFC South or the NFC North, the AFC North plays defense.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
Denver with Wilson is an obvious choice. I think that Miami might surprise. Baltimore was 4th in the AFCN, and I think that they could contend. I really don't see much from the other "weaker" teams, that didn't make big off-season moves.
Jacksonville could surprise, with their additions and some improvement under Center .... who knows? Can Trevor Lawrence take that big a step forward?
I agree w/your choices, although I don't think anyone would be shocked if Denver or Miami excel. The Jags choice is kinda similar to what Cinci did this past year. The Browns had a losing record and w/the upgrade at QB, they could become an elite team, but again......much like Denver, no one will be overly surprised.
In the quest to win Championships, it is even more important to "keep the team together" than to build a team that can win a championship. Keeping the team together is even more important than executing on gameday.
It looks like 2022 is a rebuilding year for the Browns and rebuilding years rarely end with winning records, it could be a fun year coming up, if one is alright with losing.
The Dolphins, could have been a sleeper team, but then they changed their head coach, iirc.
We're not rebuilding. We're Building. Back. Better.
The 49ers are probably another team to watch. They were successful last year, but with all the big time moves elsewhere it feels like they are being slept on a bit. It'll be interesting to see if Lance can come out like Mahomes after the "redshirt" year. Though this is supposed to be an AFC thread, but I didn't want my droll humor to turn this political.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
Denver with Wilson is an obvious choice. I think that Miami might surprise. Baltimore was 4th in the AFCN, and I think that they could contend. I really don't see much from the other "weaker" teams, that didn't make big off-season moves.
Jacksonville could surprise, with their additions and some improvement under Center .... who knows? Can Trevor Lawrence take that big a step forward?
I agree w/your choices, although I don't think anyone would be shocked if Denver or Miami excel. The Jags choice is kinda similar to what Cinci did this past year. The Browns had a losing record and w/the upgrade at QB, they could become an elite team, but again......much like Denver, no one will be overly surprised.
I think the Jags are the only true "sleeper" team. If Lawrence makes a jump, they could make some noise.
As for Allen, I don't think his first two seasons were as bad as people are making it out to be. He had some blunders and some head scratching plays, but I've never seen a young quarterback look so comfortable in the pocket as I have Allen. He is the absolute best QB in the league at standing tall until the last possible minute. His pocket presence is second to none. And it's been that way since his second year in the league. He absolutely has no fear of the pass rush. With his height and frame, he can stand tall, survey the field, and deliver strikes.
We're not rebuilding. We're Building. Back. Better.
The 49ers are probably another team to watch. They were successful last year, but with all the big time moves elsewhere it feels like they are being slept on a bit. It'll be interesting to see if Lance can come out like Mahomes after the "redshirt" year. Though this is supposed to be an AFC thread, but I didn't want my droll humor to turn this political.
You are right. We certainly are not rebuilding.
I like SF a lot, too. I didn't talk about them because they are in the NFC. I do have my doubts about Lance. He looked like a fish out of water last year and his playing time actually decreased as the season progressed. The 49ers would probably be smart to keep Jimmy G, although he had surgery on his throwing shoulder and isn't even throwing yet.
I would like to take a break from the bickering, insults, and pettiness for a moment and ask a question that is relevant to the topic. Last year, the Bengals won their division and went all the way to the Super Bowl after seasons in which I believe they went 2 and 14 and 4 and 12. Does anyone have a sleeper team that might make some unexpected noise?
Denver with Wilson is an obvious choice. I think that Miami might surprise. Baltimore was 4th in the AFCN, and I think that they could contend. I really don't see much from the other "weaker" teams, that didn't make big off-season moves.
Jacksonville could surprise, with their additions and some improvement under Center .... who knows? Can Trevor Lawrence take that big a step forward?
I agree w/your choices, although I don't think anyone would be shocked if Denver or Miami excel. The Jags choice is kinda similar to what Cinci did this past year. The Browns had a losing record and w/the upgrade at QB, they could become an elite team, but again......much like Denver, no one will be overly surprised.
I think the Jags are the only true "sleeper" team. If Lawrence makes a jump, they could make some noise.
As for Allen, I don't think his first two seasons were as bad as people are making it out to be. He had some blunders and some head scratching plays, but I've never seen a young quarterback look so comfortable in the pocket as I have Allen. He is the absolute best QB in the league at standing tall until the last possible minute. His pocket presence is second to none. And it's been that way since his second year in the league. He absolutely has no fear of the pass rush. With his height and frame, he can stand tall, survey the field, and deliver strikes.
I think you are right about Jax being the only true sleeper team. No one would be that surprised if Denver, Cleveland, or Miami had great years.
Watching Josh Allen is something to behold. I marveled at him many times, but I will just use that KC playoff game as an example. You are right that he was standing in the pocket until the last second and then delivering strikes downfield in the most pressurized situations. The guy was not intimidated by the pressure of the pass rush or the pressure of the situation. He stands so tall in the pocket. Then he takes off and makes huge runs that result in first downs in bad down and distance situations. I can't help but think of how they were using one of those animated virtual simulators of how to design the perfect QB and how Josh Allen would be the end result.
As has been previously stated, a lot of the success of a QB being drafted has to do with the stability of the team, is the team rebuilding, transition, injuries, scheme, and coach. When you look at the QB's selected in 2017, the situation they were drafted into had a huge bearing on their success. Trubisky who went 2nd overall by the Bears had a two-year record of 9-23. QB wasn't the only issue the Bears had when they drafted Trubisky. Mahomes was next at #10 by KCC. The Chiefs were 23-9 the previous 2-seasons with 2 playoff appearances (1-2). Obviously, most of the pieces were in place before drafting Mahomes. Watson was next at #12 by the Houston Texans. The Texans were fresh off winning the AFC South in 2015 and 2016. The Texans were 18-14 over that time period with a 2-year playoff record of 1-2.
In the case of Mahomes and Watson, they both were drafted by playoff teams (each of the previous 2-years) and at a minimum had a winning team nucleus already built with stability at the head coach and FO. Trubisky was not so fortunate. The huge difference was Trubisky was drafted to carry the team and change its fortunes. Mahomes and Watson were drafted to hopefully upgrade the position on teams that were already established, stable, not rebuilding, played in a scheme that highlighted their skill set, and got a head coach that actually participated in drafting the player. Mahomes also got to sit his first year as KCC went 10-6 and won the AFC West again while going 0-1 in the playoffs. Watson played in Houston's first game after the benching of Savage. Watson proceeded to go 3-3 in his starts with the playoff Texans before tearing his ALC and being lost for the season. The Texans went 4-12 in 2017 but injuries outside Watson had a huge bearing in the team success. Watson was back in charge in 2018 with the playoff caliber roster now fully healed.
Mayfield was presented to an even worse situation than Trubisky. Coming off a 1-31 record the previous 2-years and a head coach whose seat was on blazing fire presented Mayfield situations the other 3 QB's have never experienced. Dealing with 4 head coaches in 4 years, stability was not something Mayfield was afforded as a Cleveland Brown taking over a 1-31 franchise.
A couple of things about Baker's circumstances. First of all, I don't buy how bad the team has been around him. I think the Browns had the best roster in the league the last couple of years. I thought they had a very good roster in Baker's second season. I think Baker has made his supporting cast worse rather than the other way around.
Secondly, NFL teams would recognize it if Baker's situation was as dire as his fanbase claims it to be. They would make a move to trade for him. Houston did not want him in the trade. They have Davis Mills at qb. Indy didn't want him. Atlanta didn't want him. No team has traded for him. People point to his salary, but his salary isn't even high for a NFL qb. Guys who make more have been traded.
It's going to be nice to not hear how bad the Brown's supporting cast is anymore. It's going to be nice to not have to listen to the insane blaming of the coaching.
It's not just my opinion........many football analysts have claimed the Browns have had the best roster the last couple of years. The question mark in their minds was always w/the qb. It's always amazed me how many Cleveland fans have blamed everyone but Baker for the team's shortcomings.
I think that was the sentiment prior to week 1. There was a healthy amount of assumption going into that (Higgins continuing to contribute, a motivated OBJ returning to form, etc.). Hooper was a disappointment, OBJ started the year "injured" and dropped a bunch of easy passes. Then there were the injuries.
IMO, injuries alone should put away any "best roster in the league" talk (since we're using hindsight here). But ignoring that, some assumptions didn't pan out (namely Higgins and OBJ).
JMHO, How'd OBJ work out for the Rams? Know he's still unsigned....injuries AGAIN, but he balled for Rams. Healthy, lots of folks said we were ready for SB? Didn't happen AND JMHO, big part Baker.....obviously, FO thought same thing....GO Browns!!!
I apologize cause I just don't have the fortitude to make an in depth post as I would like. The one thing I would like to add to this discussion.
2021 Browns I think were the most unluckiest team - We lost a lot starting with our QB who if you all remember set a record for the most accurate passer in the first 2 games of the season - I think it was top 3 and then the injury happened to the shoulder and it just got worse from there. But it was not just QB. Garrett was setting records and was on his way to demolish the sack record when he got hurt...he too played but no where close to his abilities. We lost our RT for most of the season and our LT played with a bad ankle sprain for most the season. Landry was another who was hurt but played on as damaged goods. We had a lot of key injuries and like so many teams who make it far in the post season those teams do so with very little injuries Yes other teams also had problems but I thought we had some very key and ill timed injuries to the team. Ward, Hunt our DTs our DE depth so its different cause we made the change at QB but if we did not we were going to be ahead of the game as we would be coming back with good health. I actually hope Baker stays and plays for the suspended DW it will be easier to trade him before the trade deadline - I'm sure he will have a chip on his shoulder and would want to do well...good for him and good for us. I'm sure DW will do well with all his problems behind him - we should not cut off our nose to spite the face. Use him, trade him and finish with DW and win a championship!
I apologize cause I just don't have the fortitude to make an in depth post as I would like. The one thing I would like to add to this discussion.
2021 Browns I think were the most unluckiest team - We lost a lot starting with our QB who if you all remember set a record for the most accurate passer in the first 2 games of the season - I think it was top 3 and then the injury happened to the shoulder and it just got worse from there. But it was not just QB. Garrett was setting records and was on his way to demolish the sack record when he got hurt...he too played but no where close to his abilities. We lost our RT for most of the season and our LT played with a bad ankle sprain for most the season. Landry was another who was hurt but played on as damaged goods. We had a lot of key injuries and like so many teams who make it far in the post season those teams do so with very little injuries Yes other teams also had problems but I thought we had some very key and ill timed injuries to the team. Ward, Hunt our DTs our DE depth so its different cause we made the change at QB but if we did not we were going to be ahead of the game as we would be coming back with good health. I actually hope Baker stays and plays for the suspended DW it will be easier to trade him before the trade deadline - I'm sure he will have a chip on his shoulder and would want to do well...good for him and good for us. I'm sure DW will do well with all his problems behind him - we should not cut off our nose to spite the face. Use him, trade him and finish with DW and win a championship!
jmho
You have a point. There's also an element of some QBs can better overcome bad luck, though. When things around Baker were good, he was pretty good. When he faced adversity, he was much less good. In the NFL, you're going to face adversity.
I apologize cause I just don't have the fortitude to make an in depth post as I would like. The one thing I would like to add to this discussion.
2021 Browns I think were the most unluckiest team - We lost a lot starting with our QB who if you all remember set a record for the most accurate passer in the first 2 games of the season - I think it was top 3 and then the injury happened to the shoulder and it just got worse from there. But it was not just QB. Garrett was setting records and was on his way to demolish the sack record when he got hurt...he too played but no where close to his abilities. We lost our RT for most of the season and our LT played with a bad ankle sprain for most the season. Landry was another who was hurt but played on as damaged goods. We had a lot of key injuries and like so many teams who make it far in the post season those teams do so with very little injuries Yes other teams also had problems but I thought we had some very key and ill timed injuries to the team. Ward, Hunt our DTs our DE depth so its different cause we made the change at QB but if we did not we were going to be ahead of the game as we would be coming back with good health. I actually hope Baker stays and plays for the suspended DW it will be easier to trade him before the trade deadline - I'm sure he will have a chip on his shoulder and would want to do well...good for him and good for us. I'm sure DW will do well with all his problems behind him - we should not cut off our nose to spite the face. Use him, trade him and finish with DW and win a championship!
jmho
I agree with most of your post, except playing Baker while DW is suspended (If he gets suspended). I just feel there would be to much tension in the locker room, I would trade Baker as soon as possible, if not before or during the draft, then before training camp, and most definitely before the season begins. Have you heard any support from his teammates about him since DW was signed (*Crickets*) , I believe he was not the team player he tried to project himself to be, not that I'm an OBJ fan but as soon as DW was signed he said he would come back to Cleveland and Landry wanted to redo his deal and stay here. I was a Baker Supporter I loved him and if DW wasn't signed I would have been excited to have Baker as our starter, and Oh by the way I am still torn with DW's situation, I will just wait and see and go by what our nations legal system is suppose to be for all of us ... "Innocent until proven guilty ... GO BROWNS
Eotab, we have had people ragging on baker since draft night five years ago. For some it was a continuous drumbeat. In that time Baker Mayfield led us out of the muck and mire of 1-31 and in three years he led us to a playoff win. From the night he came into the jets game we went from being a punchline to a joke to being seen seriously. I am very appreciative of what Baker did for the Browns. He was our qb and I supported him.
Dashaun is our qb now and I will support him. Hopefully he will lead us to the next level.I was very surprised at the way many fans turned against baker this year. We seem to have very short memories.
Baker has a very porous work ethic. He broke Mannings record and it went to.his head. I never heard anyone describe Mayfield as the 1st guy in , last guy out , ever. Talent is no good without the drive behind it. The chip on his shoulder narrative is so cliche and laughable in regards to.him
[quote]I was very surprised at the way many fans turned against baker this year. We seem to have very short memories./quote]
Then you must be flabbergasted that the Browns organization wanted to move on from him. You must be shocked that none of his teammates have supported him after they publicly supported OBJ. You must be astounded that not one team has wanted to trade for him despite him having a below average contract.
Baker has a very porous work ethic. He broke Mannings record and it went to.his head. I never heard anyone describe Mayfield as the 1st guy in , last guy out , ever. Talent is no good without the drive behind it. The chip on his shoulder narrative is so cliche and laughable in regards to.him
I have also never heard one single person who is close enough to the situation say that Baker doesn't put in the time and the work, ever.
Baker has a very porous work ethic. He broke Mannings record and it went to.his head. I never heard anyone describe Mayfield as the 1st guy in , last guy out , ever. Talent is no good without the drive behind it. The chip on his shoulder narrative is so cliche and laughable in regards to.him
I have also never heard one single person who is close enough to the situation say that Baker doesn't put in the time and the work, ever.
Anytime you come across a great QB, at.some point Phrases like "student of the game" "film room guy" "The most driven, hardest working" is very often associated With that QB. Fact, the year after Bakers rookie year,he admitted as much He didnt put in the time or extra work to improve. As he said " I thought the game would be so easy" Well fast forward to 2021,'his game has not improved one bit. In fact he has regressed. He was making rookie mistakes Last year. He simply does not have the work ethic of Burrow Herbert, and Allen. If so it would show on.the field.
The Steelers going from 20 years of Roethlisberger to Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett is perfect.
The fact so many analysts and people on twitter shun the Steelers for taking Pickett has me worried that he is going to end up good. That's usually how these things pan out.
I'm not saying it will end up like the Josh Allen story. But I am saying that those who make this sound like there will be a terrible outcome may not be correct. I'm not sure anyone has a good enough track record at projecting QB's at the next level to know for sure.
We saw people on this very board, many in fact, promote the Mayfield pick from draft day until just a very short time ago. Some still do. So as with all QB's drafted early, the story has yet to be written.
