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The forum kinda seems more like the Tailgate forum than the Pure Football forum. I thought it might be fun to take a look at the AFC contenders and talk a little football.
The AFC is loaded. It is far, far superior to the NFC. I can think of multiple AFC teams that might be the favorite if they were in the NFC. This is an early look and I make no claims that it is entirely valid. After all, there is no way I would have considered the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at this time last year.
East:
Buffalo: I consider them the best team in football. The main reason why is that Josh Allen is a superior qb. If I were to start an NFL franchise today, he would be #1 overall pick. I didn't like the guy before the draft. It demonstrates what a dart throw it is in evaluating collegiate qbs. This guy has grown tremendously as a passer. He is a great leader who is beloved by his teammates. He is an outstanding runner who keeps many drives alive when the play breaks down. I think they should try and harness in his running, though. He takes and delivers way too many big shots. Save that stuff for the playoffs. The D is pretty good and Von Miller will be a good leader for them. They have decent skilled players. The one concern I have is coaching and maybe generating a pass rush even though Miller will help. Totally blew the kickoff against KC and then allowed KC to score w/13 seconds left due to poor planning on D. They are still my favorite as best team.
Miami: They are all in. Have a pretty good D. Their OL was horrible last year, but Armstead will help. They have upgraded the skill positions and brought in a Shanny guy. I question Tua in regards to his ability to be a difference maker. The AFC is loaded with elite qbs and if you don't have one, you are on the outside looking in. They brought in Shanny's OC. He might be bright, but many coordinators fail in the HC role. I say........improved, but probably not a playoff team.
New England: They have the greatest coach of all-time. However, they have digressed talent wise from last season. They have the worst WR unit in the NFL. Out of the playoffs.
Jets: LMAO.......NO.
North:
Bengals: Burrow is the real deal. He is a natural born leader. Very accurate. Stays cool and resilient despite being hammered by the pass rush. They have a lot of talent and I think they have upgraded the league's worst OL, but I worry Joe might get hurt. He takes too many shots. If he goes down, they have no chance. They do have excellent skill players on O and some playmakers on D, but the D is somewhat inconsistent. I think they are a true contender, but I have a feeling they might take a step back this year.
Pittsburgh: Their OL is awful. They have good WRs, but Claypool is a head case. Najee is a good back, but makes some baffling decisions at times. Stop bouncing everything outside. The D is the D. Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league. Trubisky was hampered by the idiot Nagy in Chi-town, but I am not sold on him and if you don't have a top flight qb in the AFC, you are doomed. I think they miss the playoffs.
Baltimore: No team had worse luck than Baltimore last year. They lost so much. Harbaugh is an excellent coach and Lamar is a gamer. They have a good secondary if healthy. The WRs aren't very good. The OL regressed. They should not be good, but they find ways to win. Hard to count them out even if the mind tells you they don't belong.
Browns: Huge upgrade at qb. Maybe the best OL in the league. Great RBs. Very good HC. Excellent OL coach. Lost their excellent WRs. The negative energy surrounding Watson could get heavy on the team's psyche. A suspension would be devastating to their chances. However, unlike many Baker fans, most people know the Browns have one of the best rosters in then entire league. They have a shot.
South:
Tennessee: Overlooked every year, yet they still win. Vrabel is a good coach. Tough as nails and so is his team. Their D was terrible two years ago but improved last year. Great running game. Tannehill is pretty good at times, but laid a huge egg in the playoffs. This is a weak division. They have a shot to win division, but I don't think they go far in playoffs.
Indy: This is the team Baker wanted to go to. I knew they wouldn't trade for him because they did not want to replace one emotional midget [Wentz] w/another. Ryan is steady, but he is 38 {I think} and past his prime. They have a good team, but desperately need a LT. Their WRs are questionable and lost their TE to retirement. They need an Edge guy. Solid team that could challenge for the division, but not a real threat in the playoffs.
Jags: No.
Houston: LOL
West:
KC: While I like what they did in the trading of Hill, there is no one player that can replace the Cheetah. He changes the way DC's game plan. Their D is pretty weak and they are losing Mathieu. Their OL is solid, but not as good as at least one analyst thinks. They still have a great qb, but he showed some signs of vulnerability last year. They do have the most established coach in the division.......by far. I won't be surprised if they represent the conference in the Super Bowl or miss the playoffs.
LA Chargers: Great qb. This guy would be my second overall pick after Allen. Big, strong, gun, mobile, good attitude. He has it all. Chargers loaded up on D to really improve that unit. OL is still a bit of a concern. Very good WRs. My issue w/them is their HC. Dude lost them several games last year. As a former coach, I hate coaches who want to be the show. Your job is to facilitate the players and put them in the best position to succeed. It's about the players......not you and your arrogant, stubborn self. Going for it on your own 18 yard line w/the playoffs on the line. Calling TO in that same game that allowed the Raiders to kick the winning FG. Countless times when you chased points. Hard to overcome incompetent coaching. It's a shame, because this roster is loaded. They still have a shot due to that talent, but someone needs to slap some sense into their HC.
Denver: Talented roster. Excellent D. Good RBs and WRs. Lost Fant at TE. Wilson was a huge get for them, but I wonder about him. I was kinda hoping the Browns would go for him, but he really isn't that great from the pocket. He drifts too deep due to his short stature and takes on sacks that the OL gets blamed for. He is a great creator, but seems to fade later in seasons.......at least for the last 3 years. I'd rather have Watson than him. Their HC is bright, but he is another first-time HC and you don't know what you will get. They have a true shot, but I say they miss out because they are playing in what might be the best division in the history of the NFL.
Las Vegas: I think McDaniels is one of the better offensive minds in football. The team improved their roster significantly. Carr is pretty good, but did anyone else notice how long he held on to the ball in the playoff game. That is a no-no. Very good team, but the division is too tough.
Anyone want to participate?
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Legend
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I'm going to put them in the order in which I think they will finish in their division.
East -
Buffalo - Josh Allen is the real deal. He would not be my number one overall pick if starting a franchise today. That would be Mahomes for me, but he's up there. Way up there. He'd probably be the second guy on my list for all the reasons you state. Total package.
New England / Miami - these teams are interchangeable to me. I don't think either QB is very good.
Jets - Zack Wilson might have played some of the worst quarterback I've ever seen in my life last year. He was 10 times worse than Deshone Kizer. I just can't see a big jump here.
North -
Baltimore - the worst luck I've ever seen a franchise have with regards to injuries. I agree Harbaugh is a superior coach. I also think Lamar comes back with a vengeance. Coaching, quarterback play, defense. They will be the class of the north next year.
Cleveland / Cincy - Torn on these two. I am in the minority that thinks Burrow is overrated. His pop gun arm is not sustainable. The number of hail marys he throws up every game is not sustainable. Watch every single playoff game and you can't convince me he was the reason they were in the Super Bowl. Very average. Everything broke right for them including staying incredibly healthy. For the Browns, if Watson gets suspended it will be a wasted season. If he doesn't, I have some reservations on how good a coach Stefanski can be with an elite QB.
Pittsburgh - Tomlin has never had a losing season. I think he gets his first.
West -
KC - Still the class of the AFC, imo, with the best quarterback.
LAC - I was a late adopter on Herbert. Can't deny his talent. Total package. I would probably list the best QBs in the league as Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert.
Denver - How much does Wilson have left?
LV - They still have Derek Carr. I've never seen a QB play so hot and cold in the same season. I don't think it was a coincidence he saw his first playoff action in like 8 or 9 seasons.
South -
Tennesse - Class of the south. Don't see that changing.
Jags - Trevor Lawrence takes a huge step forward.
Indy - Matt Ryan is an awful QB. Just awful. Indy will end up wasting a pretty decent roster.
Houston - several years away.
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Legend
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At this time, it's way up in the air, I'd say start by removing a team, out of contention than put one in, because there are so many teams in the AFC in position to do real well. Broncos, -minus, they won't win it all or even their div. imo, because a new Qb will take adjusting time.
Browns - for the same reason, not only new QB, but new Wr's, it's just going to take some time and continuity, which hurts their chances in 2022.
Colts, I think removing the colts, and returning that the Titans will run away with that div. is at least partly or more than 55% likely.
The AFC East, to Remove the Dolphins is not something easy to do, but I will, I'll take the Dolphins again out of contention because even though I'm looking at a big draft haul, I think they have a lot of picks, they will be first year guys, but bottom line, even though they are doing so much right Dolphins bottom line, if I had any faith in Tua , Which I don't, in fact I think tua is a Shoe-in? to blow things with bad play. If they had a real Qb they'd be much more dangerous.
So in the East it comes to the Bills and Patriots, and I think the Patriots make it close and get a WC, but the Bills win that div.
In the North I think it will come down to the Ravens and Bengals, and just out of history and league bias' I have to believe it's going to be the Ravens' as div winners, and who knows what the bengals will do.
In the West, I have mad respect for the Chargers QB, but, there is always something that the Chargers do to not win the Div, but, I think, there is a good probability that the Chiefs, have their worst year in 3 or 4 years.
That leaves the Raiders, and the Raiders are going to ... well the Div will come down to the Chiefs and Raiders imo, the only question is will they both have 11(12)+ wins or both have closer to 10 or less wins.
To give the strongest reply, I think the Browns, Colts, Dolphins, and Broncos will be the least likely to gain a playoff berth, at this point.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Buffalo: I think Josh Allen is a little overrated only because most people as in Browns fans wanted a bigger QB then what was handed to them in Baker. I think some simply used Josh Allen as an attempt to not accept Baker. Josh seems inconsistent except for the 2020 season.
Miami: I had them for the sleeper team last season, Tua doesn't look like the QB that can lead a team, and there seems to be a dark cloud over the skies of Miami.
New England : Had one heck of a mid to late run, Bill's time is nearing like Coach K's from Duke. Will Pat's play for a last season championship to send off the goat ? Who knows and who knows if this is his last season.
Jets : This is the team that just may be the surprise of the East. I think Joe Douglass is putting together a fairly good team. Signing Daniels,Diggs,Williams,Peppers, Howard,Richardson,Hooker,Phillips and Higgins. may not be great,but mostly improved .
Bengals: I believe Joe Burrows loving the deep pass will eventually catch up to him. I also believe they will take a step back, due to the deep pass.
Steelers: I agree with all you stated. If they do pick up Baker as stated under the right conditions by the Steelers or Media, then I predict them having less than a stellar year.
Baltimore : I can't agree with them having the worst luck of any team, (see Browns )
Browns : I agree with all except for the loss of excellent receivers, I do agree that the Browns should be top in the AFCN, Thought that last season.
I have to bail on the rest of the post, will try to get back on the rest. I like this thread Vers good job posting it ! Good football ball talk. Thank you !
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AFC East
Bills. There is alot to to like about this team. Brandon Beane is one of the best GMs In the NFL. He has quietly built a powerhouse crew around Josh Allen. They have real emerging WR in Gabriel Davis. Adding Von Miller already adds to A solid front 7. Tra'Darious White returns at CB. Not alot of weaknesses on this team
Jets. Robert Saleh has a plan. Zack Wilson has more firepower around him.on offense This year. People forget, they beat the Bengals year. They could finish around 9-8 or 8-9 Depending on Wilsons growth
Pats. This team may not win 6 games in 2022. They let their best olinemen go in FA Mac Jones has the tools to be solid QB. But his WR room looks like Manginis WR room With the Browns. No Josh McDaniels will affect the offense
Dolphins. Huge expectations with all these new faces on offense. Tyreek Hill might be slapping Tua like Will Smith slapped Chris Rock. Tua isnt Mahomes. Already their new HC will be Expected to win right out the gate.
AFC South Colts. Another year another washed up QB brought in. The Colts choked down the stretch This division is weak so it.comes down to which QB is playing the best in the last half Of the season. I think this team will go as far as Ryan takes them Taylor is the best RB in the.game but RBs dont put teams in the playoffs
Titans Mike Vrbal is a good coach. But how patient will the Adams family be? Titans window is closing. Tanneyhill simply is the lesser QBs of 2 in the playoffs. Titans should win the South. But they were exposed by the Bengals in the playoffs
Jags. Quick fact. No.team has spent more $$$$ in FA since 2016 than the Jags. And that approach has failed. But I.think Better days lie ahead. Lawrence will finally get some solid coaching around him. No drama. But everything is dependant on his growth. Still not a playoff team
Texans. This could be a sleeper team in 2023. There is no pressure to win now Davis Mills played really good in the last half of 2021. The Texans have 5 picks in the 80. If they can get some home run picks In this draft it bids well for the future.
AFC West Chargers. One of the best rosters in the AFC. Herbert is a future HoF. He does everything well as a QB. Vision, anticipation, leadership, rocket arm He is everything Mayfield isnt. Resigning Williams was huge. Adding Jackson and Mack Was incredible. To go with Bosa and James. SB contender
Raiders. Watchout. This team is ready make noise. Carr is going to really lightup The scoreboard with Adams, Waller, Renfro and Jacobs
Broncos . Pairing Wilson with a great running game should bode well. A healthy Jerry Jeudy should really help open things up. Patrick really came on Last year. Broncos have rock solid defense to compliment the offense Should make Wildcard
Chiefs. Hard to believe this team might miss playoffs in 2022. They will score points But can they stop anyone? Hardeman is really to take over as #1-WR. But Kelce will find out his role just got harder with no Hill.
AfC North. Bengals. The surprise team of 2021 just got better with the oline additions. Hard to believe but JaMarr Chase can get better. Tee Higgins is legit. And Joe Burrow can concentrate on his growth and not rehab now The Bengals,D didnt lose anyone other than Ogenjobi. Plus they get edge rusher Ossai back. Come draft day they can draft BPA I got them and L.A in AFC title game
Ravens. A healthy Ravens team is a playoff team. They have the best secondary In the AFC. Their oline gets Staley back. And they get their starting backfield back Bateman needs to emerge at WR this year. Andrews is the best TE around
Browns. On paper the Browns look like terrors. But that has been said for 3 years Now. Its a myth the Browns have the best oline in the NFL. New center. Willis is Inconsistent. The Browns dline needs help. So both sides of trenches need help Watson brings a legit arm to the offense. And KS doesnt have to rely on designed Boots or rollouts in order to get the ball past 25 yds The Browns defense is very good. But can it shut down guys like Hebert and Allen ? The Browns should be a wild card team this year. But dont surprised if it misses The playoffs again
Steelers. A Mike Tomlin team is always well prepared. But OC Matt Canada and Trubisky Need to get in sync. I think the offense will do enough to score 20 a game But again its the defense that will be asked to be the identity of this team Somehow Tomlin has this team in the playoff conversation sach year
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Legend
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I will comment on one "other" team, Indy.
I think they might be better than the forecast. While Ryan is getting older, he might be entering that new prime.
The guy is in good shape, still has a good arm. and while listed as a good QB, the change in scenery might get him back in to the very good range. He was called Matty Ice for a reason, and I don't think that goes away. I think it will get better with age.
While LT might be a question mark, they still have a very good OL, a solid run game always helps a QB, and IMO a QB makes receivers as much as talent makes receivers, so I expect to see the receivers look much better with the addition of Ryan over having Wentz tossing them the ball.
The D, while unspectacular is still a solid unit. I think they can make some waves.
As for the Browns, chemisty is always important, but I think Watson is going to being the right elements to the O. The key will be how we fare if/when Watson is suspended. The key is how we hold up with Brissett at QB for however long, if in fact he does have to play. I'd say we need to play at least .500 ball, if not a game over.
If Watson is suspended 6 games and we are 2-4, I don't know how realistic it is to expect we win 9-10 games the rest of the way. There is bound to be a bit of a transition period involved once he comes back. I guess how long that transition takes will tell the story. If we win 9 we are probably good. If we win 7, probably not. 8 leaves up hoping someone loses the last game of the season.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Legend
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Legend
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The forum kinda seems more like the Tailgate forum than the Pure Football forum. Thank God you came back to fix it.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Legend
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Legend
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If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Legend
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Legend
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And there you go again. Vers has been telling us all how Pure Football looks like the Tailgate lot. It's becoming a trend. The fact you ignore that is your business. Somehow you think I give a damn what you think about my posts. I don't. You keep doing you.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Right now I see us behind Cincy, Buffalo, the Chargers, and Denver.
Cincy's biggest weakness was their OLine and they shored that up by signing Karras, Cappa, and Collins. If they can improve their defense some more I think they can very well be the team to beat in the AFC.
Buffalo is very good, I just think they lack the offensive fire power Cincy has.
The Chargers with the additions of Khalil Mack and JC Jackson have one scary defense and I think Herbert is a very under-rated QB.
Denver I always thought had a lot of talent, they just lacked at the QB position. If Wilson can return to his old self and put 2021 behind him I think that makes Denver an instant contender in the AFC.
#gmstrong
Live, Love, Laugh
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Legend
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Some very good replies. Many of us see it in similar ways, w/a few differences of opinion. All I know, it's going to be crazy in this conference this year.
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All Pro
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Cincy is a contender, but I can't see them doing as well next year even with an improved O-line. They were one of the healthiest teams last year, if not the healthiest. I expect a regression to the mean on that front next year.
I said the same thing about Tampa Bay last year, even though they brought everyone back, and look how that turned out.
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Legend
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Legend
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The forum kinda seems more like the Tailgate forum than the Pure Football forum. Thank God you came back to fix it. And there you go again. Vers has been telling us all how Pure Football looks like the Tailgate lot. It's becoming a trend. The fact you ignore that is your business. Somehow you think I give a damn what you think about my posts. I don't. You keep doing you. I'm continually amazed how quick you can go from snark to fake outrage. As for the earlier question, our path to the playoffs (now more than ever) runs through our division. The AFC is stacked, and there are going to be very good teams not getting in, so it becomes that much more important for us to take care of our own division. I don't see Cinci as a threat as I think we will continue to match up extremely well against them (but I was also crapping on them all last year pretty much up until the SB... so what do I know?). I think Burrow should come back to Earth a bit, if for no other reason than he got hit a ton last year. He escaped another injury-shortened season on by the grace of Mary. I don't see their investment in the Oline as being much of a mitigation in that regard, but I'm still hoping that we end up with a solid interior Dline. Our DE's will still eat their tackles for lunch, and our secondary is only going to get more solid with time in the system. Baltimore will be an issue, IMO. While we had crazy injury issues last year, Baltimore made us look healthy comparison. I expect them to come out of the gate on fire. Pittsburgh will scrap together wins like they always do. I expect their D to re-solidify and they're going to feature Najee, which will make life tough for us when we play them, but I still don't expect them to be in the mix.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
-PrplPplEater
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Legend
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I'm continually amazed how quick you can go from snark to fake outrage. You've obviously never seen me outraged. ![rofl rofl](/images/graemlins/default_dark/rofl.gif)
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Denver: up for sale, that may affect the season for them. New owner could come in with their views of what they want. Could happen could not .
Raider Nation ! I love them ! Carr had Renfrow (2021 pro bowl) , Waller (2020 pro bowl) as WR and TE. Now he has Adams along with Robinson. I feel he won't be holding onto the ball as long, better coach better players, I see them competing for the AFC Championship.
Carr is also one of three QB's that had three back to back seasons with over 4000 yds. The other two were Mahomes and Rodgers.
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Legend
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No sense in me running down the AFC team by team, others have done a better job, nice overviews despite the different opinions.
It was a refresher for me. I was so disgruntled by the end of the season, it was a chore to watch the Super Bowl... especially with the Bengals playing.
A few things come to mind with the AFC:
The "Arms Race" is in full gear. I think the Browns did well to land their ace. Should be exciting.
Any Given Sunday became a little "top heavy" as the season went on. We can talk about all these great QBs, but they basically watched things even out as they all beat the crap out of each other... with no real rhyme or reason to the who, what, where, when, how.
For all the great, or seemingly great teams and QBs, only three teams finished better than 10-7. One of those teams had Ryan Tannehill behind center. Again, the upper-tier teams cancelled each other out record-wise.
AS for me as a Browns fan; not afraid of the Bengals, laughing at the Steelers, and looking forward to the Ravens imploding (my opinion). Jackson's history of checking out mentally/ not controlling his emotions is not good. I think the injury bug will bite him again this year as well.
I'm predicting a six game suspension for Watson, although I'm not actually sure if that will take place this season. If so, we need to go 3-3 and not 2-4 to have a puncher's chance at the division.
Funny that you mentioned the Ravens' bad luck. Lamar's injury was devastating, but they also won at least three games early in the season that should have never been won.
Not too many people have mentioned the obvious in relation to them losing their last six games. It was a JOK sack that put Lamar down for the count. Nothing dirty either... he was a guided missile. Lamar will always know where he is on the field. Pretty cool that we all echoed what the FO was thinking in drafting him -- "the answer" to Lamar Jackson. What a difference maker.
HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
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Legend
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Here are teams who I think have a chance to make the Super Bowl from the AFC:
Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland Buffalo Kansas City LA Chargers Las Vegas Denver Indianapolis Tennessee
Ours is solely dependent on Watson being suspended of course. If he’s not, we’re in the top half of those teams
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I heard on the radio yesterday (so take it with a grain of salt) that there were rumors of Brady getting traded to Miami. I have no idea how credible, if at all, that is. But if it happens, geez. The AFC is an ever-escalating arms race.
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
#gmstrong
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AS for me as a Browns fan; not afraid of the Bengals, laughing at the Steelers, and looking forward to the Ravens imploding (my opinion). Jackson's history of checking out mentally/ not controlling his emotions is not good. I think the injury bug will bite him again this year as well. Agreed.
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Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
2. Projected win totals for all 32 teams The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for the 2022 NFL season and in news that probably won't surprise you, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL. The Bucs have an Over/Under of 11.5 wins, which is tied with the Bills.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals. Lowest totals. The Falcons, Jets and Texans all have an Over/Under of five wins or less, which is the lowest in the NFL. The Texans are in Year 2 of a rebuild and the Jets are the Jets, so it isn't that surprising to see them so low. As for the Falcons, they just traded away their long-time franchise QB, so the oddsmakers in Vegas clearly aren't expecting much from them this year.
No respect for Super Bowl teams. The two Super Bowl teams from 2021 aren't getting much respect. The Rams (10.5) are tied for the fourth-highest projected win total while the Bengals (9.5) are tied for the 10th highest total.
No respect for 2021 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an Over/Under lower than nine and those four teams are the Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Eagles (8.5) and Steelers (7.5). The Steelers make sense because they just lost Ben Roethlisberger. The Raiders win total is low because they play in the toughest division in the NFL, but as for the other two, the numbers for Philadelphia, and especially New England, feel low. I might just go ahead and bet the over on the both the Eagles and Patriots right now. Oddsmakers are high on the AFC West. There are nine teams with an Over/Under of 10 or more wins and the most notable part of that fact is that three of those nine teams are from the AFC West with the Chiefs (10.5), Chargers (10) and Broncos (10) all having a double-digit win total. With an Over/Under of 8.5, the Raiders are the only AFC West team that didn't crack double digits.
Here are the all win totals for all 32 teams from highest to lowest (win totals via Caesars Sports Book): Bills (11.5), Buccaneers (11.5), Packers (11.5), Chiefs (10.5), Cowboys (10.5), Rams (10.5), Broncos (10), Chargers (10), 49ers (10), Bengals (9.5), Browns (9.5), Colts (9.5), Ravens (9.5), Titans (9.5), Cardinals (9), Dolphins (8.5), Eagles (8.5), Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Vikings (8.5), Commanders (7.5), Saints (7.5), Steelers (7.5), Giants (7), Bears (6.5), Jaguars (6.5), Lions (6.5), Panthers (6), Seahawks (6), Falcons (5.5), Jets (5.5), Texans (4.5).
Tyler Sullivan put together a list of best bets for these win totals and you can check those out by clicking here (Spoiler alert: He likes the Jets going over 5.5 wins).
Last edited by steve0255; 04/01/22 04:19 PM. Reason: spelling
Just "KICKING THAT CAN DOWN the ROAD"
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Funny they have us and cincy as projected the same
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Cincy is a contender, but I can't see them doing as well next year even with an improved O-line. They were one of the healthiest teams last year, if not the healthiest. I expect a regression to the mean on that front next year.
I said the same thing about Tampa Bay last year, even though they brought everyone back, and look how that turned out. Odds simply say they won't make the SuperBowl. As for winning the division, no matter how we look at it, they are the champs. I still think the ravens are the ones we will need to beat.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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As many of us have mentioned, the AFC is loaded w/very good qbs. I want to bring up the playoff game between Buffalo and KC because I was not an active member of the board when the game was played. That was the most entertaining game I have ever witnessed. Every time I counted Buffalo out, Josh Allen would lead them to another improbable score. I remember not wanting the Browns to draft the dude and many experts felt the same way about him, but damn, this guy is awesome!. Truth be told, I didn't think Mahomes was all-that in college, as well. It's proof that evaluating how excellent collegiate qbs will translate to the NFL is a crap-shoot.
Josh Allen is as tough as nails. He was willing his team to victory. If there ever was evidence in the phrase "heroic in defeat," Allen was the epitome of that in that playoff game. I also remember texting w/several family members during the game and at one point, I jokingly texted that Buffalo gave Mahomes too much time. I think it was 13 seconds. Well, the dumb-ass coaching staff did not squib the kickoff and their shell defense was a huge blunder. Mahomes and Reid came up big in the clutch and tied the game. Incredible.
Sorry, I just wanted to talk about that game w/some of you guys. I remember thinking we had no shot of ever beating teams w/qbs like Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs w/the qb we had. I do think Watson can compete w/those guys so we have a shot if we can restore the talent on our roster to where it was two years ago. We lost key pieces in OBJ, Landry, and Tretter. We also need a DE. Hopefully, Berry will continue to build the roster.
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and to think Allen could have and should have been a Brown.
Another case of "The King" screwing the pooch.
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and to think Allen could have and should have been a Brown.
Another case of "The King" screwing the pooch. To be fair, a lot of the experts had concerns with Allen. A lot of ability, but raw. Buffalo took a gamble on him and it paid off. I read somewhere that every off-season Allen identifies a part of his game to improve and works with an expert to do so. Him recognizing that he needs to improve and then finding someone who can help him do that has really paid off. You see the improvement in his play.
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
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They say that hindsight is 20/20 but sometimes it doesn't appear so. In his last two years at Wyoming he completed 50% and 50.3% of his passes. And that's against very poor competition. Most all people questioned his rawness and accuracy. It was a huge gamble to project him into becoming the QB he is now. But never mind all of that.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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First off - it was 56% and 56.3% in his last 2 years, not 50% and we have been through this before. Players with less than 60% completion percentage in college:
1. Brett Favre 2. Dan Marino 3. Russell Wilson 4. Carson Palmer 5. The list goes on...
As for the level of competition - another fallacy in determining things: Roethlisberger, Wentz, Flacco, Lance, Warner, any QB facing Big 12 defenses, etc.
Allen - 6'5" 240 lbs, great athleticism with a missile arm, intelligent, competitive, and hard working. Hindsight, my ass. It's called projection and Allen projected well above anyone in that draft, in my opinion. Well worth the risk for a team coming off 1 win in 2 years - "experts" - please. Dorsey wanted him some Mayfield before he was even hired. All he could say was he was a "Leader of Men". How'd that work out for the Browns.
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Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair.
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I am not pretending Dorsey sucked. He did.
To be fair however, Sashi sucked too for not drafting Watson given the chance.
So did Davis for not drafting Pig Pen
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Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair. Then I won't remind you that in 2017 we could have had Garret and Watson as the first rounders, instead of Garret and Peppers. O wait, they did pick up Njoku with the last of the 3 number one round picks at 29. At the time the Browns had Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan as QB's, but to get even better the Browns got lucky because DeShone Kizer fell to them in the second round ! Oh my ! I think the 3rd round pick of Larry Ogunjobi was my second favorite pick other than Myles. Going down the heart break lane or draft bust failure lane !!! SMH !!!!!!!
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3/19/18
I love the kid. It will be fun to watch him progress and become a better QB. I think he will. I don't think we'll see him do that in Cleveland. I don't think our FO see themselves in the position to take the risk.
"Inconsistent and not accurate", yes... but not as bad as people make it seem. Most also agree that he can be much more efficient with something as simple (and coachable) as proper footwork and balance.
TBH, I question the few points of completion percentage being some "kiss of death". Trade 2-3 completions per game for a QB that can throw any pass, to any part of the field, at any velocity? And runs like Gronk in the open field?? Sign me up.
I hope he lands in a good position to grow as an NFL QB... I just hope it's not with a different team in the AFC North. I was a huge proponent. Argued with just about everyone on here about drafting him. Biggest mistake in Browns draft history. Everybody was way to hung up on his completion percentage and couldn't see the forest through the trees. They missed the part where he threw with touch OR through a brick wall, missed the part (which many argued with me about) that he already played at NFL speed... worked through progressions as well as any college QB I've ever seen. We screwed the pooch because we were afraid of the risk... and thought we made the "safe" pick in Mayfield. I'm going to go puke now.
HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
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I truly don't understand where you stand. Your kind of off on your feelings. you support DW and BM or not ?
Your confusing me my friend ! Where do you stand on this ?
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Evaluating college QBs is really tough. NFL offenses are much more complex and it's hard to know whether or not these guys will successfully transition to the NFL. Some people still can't let the Sashi/Dorsey thing go. Dorsey gets criticized by some and those same people never mention that Sashi passed on Watson by trading the pick away. It would have been nice to have drafted Watson w/the 12th overall pick instead of giving up the draft compensation that we eventually did. I really didn't want to bring that up because the past is the past. But pretending Dorsey sucked isn't even close to being fair. Then I won't remind you that in 2017 we could have had Garret and Watson as the first rounders, instead of Garret and Peppers. O wait, they did pick up Njoku with the last of the 3 number one round picks at 29. At the time the Browns had Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan as QB's, but to get even better the Browns got lucky because DeShone Kizer fell to them in the second round ! Oh my ! I think the 3rd round pick of Larry Ogunjobi was my second favorite pick other than Myles. Going down the heart break lane or draft bust failure lane !!! SMH !!!!!!! Someone posted a tweet reflecting on the 2012 (I think?) draft. He was a draft twitter guy looking back at an old bad take. Then they asked how people felt about their team's 1st round. I felt like I wanted to throw my phone. Well, my team traded up to number 3 for an RB. His name was Trent Richardson, and he seemed to have a deathly fear of Mack truck-sized holes. Same year we used another first rounder on an octogenarian (okay, okay, he wasn't quite that old) QB that couldn't find his way out from under a flag named Brandon "Flipping" Weeden. Russell Wilson went 53 picks later. Bleh, all the studs in that class and those were the two we ended up with. That was a dark day.
![[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]](https://i.ibb.co/fkjZc8B/Bull-Dawg-Sig-smaller.jpg) You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
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Frustrating isn't it? gets to all of us. Dang !
Weeden had the prettiest spiral I've ever seen, a great arm and a stupid brain .
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I'm not sure what you mean by "support".
Baker is done. I supported him the whole time he was here. I was even on the "excuse train" for a while because I had seen what he could do at his best. I still always knew it was a mistake to pick him over Allen but it wasn't hard to roll with Baker. I also knew that the league was all-in on athletic QBs that could make things happen with their legs... and the days of prototypical drop back QB were about over.
Watson is our QB now, therefore he is "my QB" now. I'm a football fan. It's not that I just wave a hand at all his bs off the field, it's creepy as hell. He's got a lot of work to become a better person. Hopefully, after the legal bs is over he can at least apologize for being a pervert. I doubt that he will, but in the end, actions speak louder anyway.
None of that ^ makes me feel any better about passing on Allen. If the football gods were to cast the perfect QB from a mold it would be Josh Allen... and the tools; the athleticism, size, strength, arm, toughness, attitude, etc, etc... those things are simply un-coachable. Looking back at 2018 and my excitement for the draft, I saw the perfect answer to shifting the power balance in the AFC North -- Big Ben on his way out and the Steelers having to find an answer to Paul Bunyan at QB in Cleveland. Still will never understand how experts just swept all of that under a rug over two/ three "inaccurate" passes per game.
HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
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Fate, you sure as heck are better at evaluating college qbs than I am. I favored Josh Rosen, for crying out lout!
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One of the bigger problems with evaluating QBs in the draft is that it's hard to predict growth and development or the environment they'll end up in. I liked Lamar, but I had no faith in Hue to maximize his abilities/utilization. Rosen went to the Cardinals with a first time HC in Wilkes, Leftwich took over as a 1st time OC partway through the season, and his entire OL except for his rookie center missed half the season. His number 1 receiver was Larry Fitzgerald, but it was a 35 y/o Larry. His 2nd and 3rd receivers were fellow rookie Christian Kirk and Chad Williams. He then went to Miami with another defensively minded 1st time HC in Flores and 1st time OC in Chad O'Shea. Josh Allen had a slightly more stable start. Sean McDermott was in his 2nd year in Buffalo coming off a winning season. Daboll had been an OC 4 years in the pros and 1 year at Alabama. Allen still only went 5-6 his rookie year with a 10-12 td-int ratio. He did get to stay with the same HC/OC combo for 4 years, and they brought in Diggs for him.
Fit and support are important in the success or failure of QBs, particularly young ones. A QB's willingness to fit might also play a role. I don't know if that was part of the Baker/Browns breakdown or not.
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Pffft... not even close. In a sense, you have to get lucky, look at the track record of NFL top picks at QB... look at the Browns track record! Remember Manning and Leaf? 1a and 1b, right?? ![rofl rofl](/images/graemlins/default_dark/rofl.gif) Allen was easy, you just had to get past the media driven narrative that fans turned into "can't hit the barn-side of a broad". We (they) do that with high profile draft prospects every year. When the media is belaboring that one, glaring hole... it's usually a good sign to look past it and deeper.
HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
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Where is your list of the thousands of QB's that DIDN'T make it when throwing for less than 60%? A hand full verses thousands doesn't make for a very good argument.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Fate, if it makes you feel better I don't think Allen would have made it to his 3rd year here. His first two years his stats and play weren't good enough for our fans and media. It's amazing what happens when you allow someone to grow.
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