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#1086936 03/07/16 07:44 PM
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This is somewhat premature and wide open to speculation, but let's have some fun here. We have the first pick of Day 2 this year, and it is generally believed that we should be receiving a lot of calls from teams looking to move up to acquire this pick. Teams have had overnight to absorb what transpired in the first round, realign their priorities/needs, etc, and who has fallen due to injury or character flaws and will present a potential "steal".

There are different scenarios that present themselves, namely:

- We drafted a QB in the first round,
- We did not draft a QB in the first round,
- We retain the #32 pick,
- We trade the #32 pick.

Post your scenario and pick...


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I'm starting with the observation that almost every draft, someone with first round talent, even high first round talent, slips into the 2nd. We need play-makers, not just more bodies, so I would be inclined to use that pick to get the BPA. And, we have SO MANY areas of need, it barely matters what position. I'm not going to pretend I can predict who that will be.

If we took a QB at #2, then straight up BPA
If we didn't, and one of the top 3 QB's is still on the board, you have to give that player serious consideration.
If we retain #32, BPA.
If we trade...it better be for more value than the BPA.


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- We drafted a QB in the first round (we retain #32):
It depends on who is available. It won't, but if the top 31 of the CBS board were all taken I'd pick either Josh Docton or Jaylon Smith. Smith if the medical report is good.

- We did not draft a QB in the first round (we retain #32):
If one of the top 3 QB's is still on the board, take him. If not, then it depends on who we took at #2. Again, if the top 31 of the CBS board were all taken I'd pick either Josh Docton or Jaylon Smith. Smith if the medical report is good.

- We drafted a QB in the first round (we trade #32):
To trade, it'd take one of two scenarios - someone offers a 2017 1st rounder and no worse than a 3rd this year (won't happen) or LA Rams offer up #43 and #45 - I'd give them our 4th rounder as well. At 43 and 45 assuming the top 42 of CBS were taken - I'd probably (at the risk of being called a homer) take Michael Thomas and Joshua Perry.

- We did not draft a QB in the first round (we trade #32):
I only could see this happening if either someone offered way too much or if none of the top 3 QB are around. It'd depend on who we picked in round 1...but if not WR or LB, it'd be Michael Thomas and Joshua Perry.

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Originally Posted By: clwb419
...I'd pick either Josh Docton or Jaylon Smith. Smith if the medical report is good.


JD would be a good pick whether or not we draft a QB at #2. With Smith, everything hinges on his medical. He could easily go 1st round or drop significantly depending on the report. Could Noah Spense drop this far due to his character issues and the reported poor interview at the Combine?

I'm not particularly interested in Paxton Lynch, but if we do not draft a QB at #2, could he drop this far and be in play here? Man, a lot of "dust" to settle before the picture becomes clearer...


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I think Lynch will be there at 32 and i hope we pass on him if he is.


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Well taking Wentz at #2 - number 32 I would hope defense. Ragland ILB, Ogbah OLB, Fackrell OLB.
OT. Spriggs should be there.

Any 20-31 BPA talent that drops hopefully will be in consideration.

Top 60 for WR is not a good class to invest. I think there will be some bang for buck in the later rounds!

btw I mentioned a couple I liked in the WR thread and there are no responses.

I just seriously doubt we will reach for a WR in this draft, odds are BPA at #2 or 32 being WR is slim to none.

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Originally Posted By: eotab
Well taking Wentz at #2 - number 32 I would hope defense. Ragland ILB, Ogbah OLB, Fackrell OLB.
OT. Spriggs should be there.

Any 20-31 BPA talent that drops hopefully will be in consideration.

Top 60 for WR is not a good class to invest. I think there will be some bang for buck in the later rounds!

btw I mentioned a couple I liked in the WR thread and there are no responses.

I just seriously doubt we will reach for a WR in this draft, odds are BPA at #2 or 32 being WR is slim to none.

jmho


Spriggs won't make it past 20. Ogbah showed some scheme versatility at the combine so I bet he's gone, too. I think it's more likely Floyd is there at 32 than Ogbah.

I disagree with your opinion on the WRs (Shocker, I know)... I think Treadwell, Doctson, and Shepherd are the clear top guys with a significant drop off for the rest of them and I think all three are locks to go in the top 40. I kinda like Cooper and lots of people like Boyd, but both those guys are expected to be gone before 65, too.

JMO of course.

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I try to be realistic...but usually guys I like end up going earlier that what could be.

But all I know after 15 and around 20+ things go in many possible directions and are not easy to predict...Somebody expected to go first round is there 20 picks into the 2nd.

WRs yeah for a smart guy I don't get your position on them...lol laugh

The kid Treadwell I thought he was by far the best WR in this draft. Shepherd would be a big time upgrade on Benjamin.. Just Treadwell is not a #2 and no way he comes close to 32. So I just don't see him as a Brown - Shepherd I like him but just don't see him being BPA at #32.

One question...I really like the kid Canaan from Virginia he wasn't even invited to the Combine and is like 50+ on most sites WR boards. I can't figure out whats wrong with the kid for that much none respect.


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Originally Posted By: eotab
... after 15 and around 20+ things go in many possible directions and are not easy to predict...


That can be quite true, eo, particularly if you start to get a "run" on WR, CB's, etc...


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This might be an oversimplification, but if we didn't like any of the QBs enough to select them at 2 or with a trade down, and we came out of round 1 without a QB, then it makes sense to me that we would trade for an additional 1st for next year (plus whatever else to make the trade work).


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I disagree tab. I seriously think Docston is on the BROWNS radar at 32! Then defense the rest of the way would be ok with me . Thoughts?


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Originally Posted By: oobernoober
This might be an oversimplification, but if we didn't like any of the QBs enough to select them at 2 or with a trade down, and we came out of round 1 without a QB, then it makes sense to me that we would trade for an additional 1st for next year (plus whatever else to make the trade work).


With the goal of drafting (or using the extra picks to move up for) one in the 2017 draft? If we cut Manziel loose, we absolutely have to find another QB somewhere. Are you thinking that we may keep Johnny?


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Originally Posted By: bbrowns32
Originally Posted By: oobernoober
This might be an oversimplification, but if we didn't like any of the QBs enough to select them at 2 or with a trade down, and we came out of round 1 without a QB, then it makes sense to me that we would trade for an additional 1st for next year (plus whatever else to make the trade work).


With the goal of drafting (or using the extra picks to move up for) one in the 2017 draft? If we cut Manziel loose, we absolutely have to find another QB somewhere. Are you thinking that we may keep Johnny?


Why must we absolutely have to find a qb this year?

Do you think the Browns can contend for a Super Bowl this year if they get that qb? Who do you think is the best qb in the league? Rodgers, Brady, Ben, Cam? Do you really think the Browns could contend for a Super Bowl w/any of them?

I don't.

So..............here is the quandary that the Browns face: Do the inexperienced decision makers of the Browns force a pick because they have a need? You know, just like many of the posters on this board would?

Or, do they realize that they should honor their board and take the best available vertical talent while still considering the horizontal aspect of the board?

Are they intelligent and experienced enough to know that their qb can be obtained in a different year because there is no possible way they are going to win it all this year anyway?

Will they understand that drafting a qb because "you absolutely have to" as opposed to "being the best pick" will only set them back further because they won't even dare admit that they made a mistake for a minimum of 3 years and probably 4 years.

I want you all to think about that. Draft the wrong guy this year w/the second overall pick and if he is the wrong guy.....we won't even try to improve the position for 3-4 years.

Sorry, but I think that all of the qbs in this class are very risky. I am not saying they suck. I am saying they have holes in their game. I am saying they are more risky than guys like Carr, Bortles, Teddy, and even RGIII.

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Devil's advocate; what if you're wrong Vers? What if, as you want, they don't pick a QB with the #2, and 4 years from now Wentz is the starter for Dallas, Goff the starter for Rams and both are rated among the top 16 QBs in the league (better than average.) Meanwhile, the Browns are STILL in search of an answer to their perpetual QB problem.

I am not advocating taking a QB just to take one. But if Jackson, Hamilton, and Saunders are agreed that they can develop one of these guys, then they absolutely SHOULD draft him.

You keep talking about how all the QBs in this draft have holes. Most QBs coming out of college have holes. Period. The question isn't which one of these guys is NFL ready, it's can any of these guys, with good coaching, become a reliable starting QB in the NFL? We don't need a top 5 stud. What we need is a better than average starter who can stabilize the position. A Dalton/Smith type is better than we have had in years.

You're absolutely right, no QB can come in and make the Browns a contender in 1 year. The Browns are so devoid of impact players, that they will need a MINIMUM 3 years of real improvement of the talent level. So if, for example, Goff is a guy who the coaching staff feels they can turn into a better than average NFL QB in about 3 years, that puts them on the right time table.

If, however, they don't address the QB problem in this draft, but instead address some of their many other problem areas, when they do get a QB, it will again most probably be a guy who will need about 3 years to get up to speed. At which point, if the other improvements have gone well, the QB talent will once again be lagging behind the rest of the team.


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Quote:
Devil's advocate; what if you're wrong Vers? What if, as you want, they don't pick a QB with the #2, and 4 years from now Wentz is the starter for Dallas, Goff the starter for Rams and both are rated among the top 16 QBs in the league (better than average.) Meanwhile, the Browns are STILL in search of an answer to their perpetual QB problem.


Obviously, that would hurt the Browns. However, they could still get their qb.

Btw---------I am not saying I am right. It's an opinion. Nothing more.

However, almost everyone on this board who is talking about the draft keeps saying the Browns have to draft a qb at 2. I am presenting an alternative argument. That helps make it a debate, which in turn leads to a more balanced discussion that should aide in the learning process. Of course, that only pertains to those who want to learn. Those that feel the need to make sure everyone agrees w/their opinion probably get very annoyed w/my arguments.

Again, I am not saying I am right. I do feel that I bring some worthwhile considerations to the topic, though.

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I have said it before and will say several more times ( I'm sure ) There is not a QB in this draft that warrant's a number two pick ! As much as we NEED a QB , almost all here will admit there is a ton of talent in the top ten with no QB in sight ..

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
However, almost everyone on this board who is talking about the draft keeps saying the Browns have to draft a qb at 2.
I disagree. I see plenty of discussion about Bosa, Ramsey, Jack, Tunsil, Treadwell and others. What I also see is that throughout the football world, the consensus, right or wrong, is that the Browns will draft a QB at #2. And that's true of any team which doesn't have an established starting QB. The discussion on the board is simply reflecting the broader discussion.

We talk about the importance of having a good pass rusher, good DB, good OL, or good receivers; but at the end of the day, the QB position is the most important on the field. Always has been and probably always will be. So it's a natural consequence that if a team doesn't have a QB, obtaining one is very important. Yes, it tends to overvalue QBs in the draft, and yes, it creates situations where QB needy teams will reach for less than a sure thing. But that's the nature of the beast.

While taking the best available QB with your first pick is risky, gambling on someone else being there later is even more so; both because their chance of success is lower, and because they may not be there. And while taking questionable talent early is generally a bad idea, the importance of the position makes QB a special case.

I'm pretty sure nobody in the front office reads the board. (Well maybe some flunky with no voice is assigned to keep on top of what is being said online, and this is one of the many sites he tracks.) What I am pretty sure of is that they are going over all their options regarding fixing the QB problem. I'm sure they are talking, or have talked, about available FAs, a QB at #2, a QB later in the draft, and standing pat. But nobody here is party to those discussions. So we speculate and opine. And much of that, naturally, centers on the QB vacancy.


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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
... almost everyone on this board who is talking about the draft keeps saying the Browns have to draft a qb at 2. I am presenting an alternative argument.


Good! We should always keep our minds open to alternative approaches. I believe the majority think that we should draft a QB at #2. I also believe that nobody expects us to go into the season with McCown-Davis-Shaw as our QB;s. Throw Manziel into that mix if he is not cut or traded. The question, then, is accepting that we need to procure a QB, where do we go? The draft or FA? In FA, there is not much there and presents no long-term solution for us. All that is left is the draft with Goff and Wentz seemingly the best two prospects with the others significantly behind.

What is your alternative for this quandry? Please be specific as this is a sincere question...


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I really don't get what you are saying. Are you saying that the Browns can NEVER find a qb in the future if they don't draft one this year?

I already said that I don't care if you put Rodgers, Brady, or Cam on the Browns........they ain't making the playoffs or winning a Super Bowl next year.

Thus, I don't see it as imperative to force a pick when you aren't going to win the next year anyway.

The Browns have a plethora of needs. They should draft the best impact player on the board. If that happens to be a qb, then take him. However, forcing a pick on a position just because you need it will only compound the problem.

Not sure what is so hard to understand??????

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Quote:
I disagree.


That's fine.

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
I really don't get what you are saying. Are you saying that the Browns can NEVER find a qb in the future if they don't draft one this year?

I already said that I don't care if you put Rodgers, Brady, or Cam on the Browns........they ain't making the playoffs or winning a Super Bowl next year.

Thus, I don't see it as imperative to force a pick when you aren't going to win the next year anyway.

The Browns have a plethora of needs. They should draft the best impact player on the board. If that happens to be a qb, then take him. However, forcing a pick on a position just because you need it will only compound the problem.

Not sure what is so hard to understand??????


No, I'm not saying that. However, they will face the same challenge every year of trying to obtain a "franchise" QB. When do/should we bite the bullet? Are we ever going to be in a very favorable position as we find ourselves this time to take the best QB on the board? I hope it's before I'm on the wrong side of the grass. At some point you've got to pull the trigger...


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Well, prematurely pulling the trigger is not considered to be virtue.

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Well, prematurely pulling the trigger is not considered to be virtue.


True, but nobody in any draft comes with a guarantee. They all have flaws to a greater or lesser degree. This year we are in the most favorable position that we may find ourself for the forseeable future. Too bad that there is not an individual who stands head and shoulders over all others. Do your homework and go with your gut whichever way that may be...

Last edited by bbrowns32; 03/09/16 12:06 PM.

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32, that was actually a joke.

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
32, that was actually a joke.

that's what she said.

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