DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Making My Own Case from An Analytical Perspective

Ref's I tried to place this in the What Analytics is thread but it error's out as inaccessible on my system. If you feel it does not warrant its own thread feel free to move it.

I use analytics on a fairly regular basis in the medical field to, develop reports, chart and graph data, and then drill down to identify the who, what, why, and/or how of both adverse and improved patient care issues occur. I am on an extended leave so I thought I would put my analytics to work here as I follow this forum fairly regularly and enjoy all of (well, most all of) your comments.

Analytics is not just about the numbers. The numbers only get you to the Hypothesis. The hypothesis I would have is this;

"We can become playoff competitive within 2 years by drafting the best player available. Thereby, significantly improving our roster without overpaying or reaching for a specific position".

Nuts right? Well every person is entitled to their own opinion, and most have the fragrance of a freshly fertilized cornfield, however, you are under no obligation to read any further.

Now, you have to define and explain your hypothesis which, I will try to do and allow all of you, who are willing to take the time necessary to review this all the way through, to make your own argument pro/con.

As I mentioned, I use a lot of analytical approaches in my every day work (as many of you likely do even if you don’t realize it). An example is medical documentation; I am not a Doctor however, I have been formally trained in how to read and break down the elements of medical documentation and determine if the clinical provider answered all of the key elements of a patients visit and whether it is written clearly enough to allow all of the personnel who use this documentation to perform their function. Only then can the patient be assured that s/he is receiving the best possible care at the most accurate cost. In every hospital I have been to, there are always a range of providers from questionable to exceptional. Some of the questionable providers can talk and write very well but not provide the highest quality service, then there are those that provide exceptional service who document very poorly. One of my tasks is to provide recommendations for approaching each. In order to do this, like the situation with the Browns, there are specialists that can identify to help either attempt to educate the clinician who provides poor service to provide a better service to the patient as well as individuals who can educate the provider documents poorly, how to improve his/her documentation. If either is unsuccessful, after training and reviewing their performance over a period of time, they are removed (or reassigned depending on the individuals’ overall value to the hospital) and we hunt for the next provider to fill the slot. Life goes on.

Is this really any different than how we run our everyday lives or how the Browns Front Office will “likely” approach their task? I believe it is.

I’m going to stop there for now. If anyone cares to review what I have developed beyond this, let me know and I will continue to post the rest of my information. I will admit there is a lot of information to take in. However, I think I can present it in a way that will allow all of us to break the roster from the numbers side. Again I see analytics as simply a tool that, like any tool, when used correctly and in conjunction with; film study, player evaluation, and scouting input, can anyone develop a long and successful team. I personally do not see us having as bare a cupboard as many others do. It might not be the Fine China, but sometimes paper plates, cups, and plastic ware will do until your ready to showcase.

BLW- "Go Browns"

I have serious doubts as to its effectiveness in football. I am intrigued by it but I just dont know of how much benefit it will truly be beyond the scouting reports we use now. Honestly to me it seems it would be more beneficial to having depodesta as an assistant coach providing info to the coach than it would in scouting players lol

Very good post, informative. I hope you continue to build upon it. I'm anxious to hear more.

Unfortunately, this doesn't always work either.

You have to figure in team needs as well, or you could wind up with the deepest, most talented, 5 deep Center roster in the NFL. (as an example)

If the most talented player available at #2 is a RB, for example, and you know that the average RB has an NFL lifespan of 3 years or so, then do you take the RB at #2? I think that I would be hard pressed to make that argument. (especially in light of the Trent Richardson debacle, where many had him as a top 3 talent .... but *bust*)

I think that you have to evaluate players and have them on a board by position, cross referenced by overall value. If you really need a QB, for example, and the only one left is your 2nd rated QB, but your top ranked CB is available, which do you take? Bear in mind that you really need a QB. Desperately. What if you have a superior and exceptionally deep secondary already?

I have been a proponent of drafting great players, because I do think that great players find the field. However, it does have to work within the overall scheme and makeup of the team at large.

If you had the funding to hire one doctor, for example, and you really needed a urologist, it would not really matter, at least not immediately, if the top ranked brain surgeon came onto the market. Maybe after you find your urologist, then you might see if it was feasible to add the brain surgeon, but it would probably not be your 1st move. (just as an example) Maybe your hospital doesn't have a brain surgery program. Maybe that eliminates the brain surgeon, or maybe you find an economically feasible way to start a brain surgery program. However, you have to place that talent within the overall structure of the medical facility.

Further, every team says that they want to draft the BPA, and miraculously every player was their top ranked player at the time they were taken, but no team is going to draft 4 RB, even if they are all the top ranked players on their board when they are on the clock. As I mentioned earlier, no one can carry 5 deep at the Center position, no matter how good the players are. The players have to fit within the structure of the team, and the needs the team has.

I think any draft board more or less reflects the needs of the team who set the board.

Thanks everyone for your valued input and I will apologize up front as I have not quite figured out configuring the formatting to make the statistics line up allowing it to be easier to read.

I am skeptical as well Mourg. Even though "I" know how to apply analytics to get the most right answer in my job. It doesn't mean just anyone can. Sasha and John can run all the statistical data they want and be 100% correct and still fail miserably if the scouts, coaches, and people who do the hands on part fail to do their part of the work correctly. The same is opposite if the hands on people do everything right and Sasha and John misread or run a report incorrectly, they can miss a major issue about a player and never know it. I've seen both extremes in my work.

You are correct Ytown, in the same sense that a 3/4 D minded coach isn't going to pick, Cleveland Browns excluded, a 4/3 DL even though the best OLB is graded lower. A lot of this intrigue that started me looking into this more were the mock draft games I was playing around with that allowed these outrageous trades. I noticed patterns start to develop that made no sense but actually got me thinking about how teams react when a particular position seems to be going on a run/fire sale. All of a sudden I saw teams taking players marked for 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round in the 2nd. It was all one quick run on Tackles. Once the run was over, the teams start falling back in line with something that resembled a normal position/player value.

DDUB and Ballpeen, I look forward to hearing your thoughts on some of the posts. Who knows, we may be able to use this as a way to gauge a little better than an educated guess as to what the FO is going to do at Draft time.


Ok, let’s look at the what the Browns have accomplished to this point;

Identified and established what appears to be a solid Coaching Leadership foundation consisting of:

Hugh Jackson- Head Coach and Senior Offensive Coordinator
Offense; Pep Hamilton – Associate Head Coach/ Offense (Quarterbacks Coach)
Al Saunders – Senior Offensive Assistant/Wide Receivers,
Bob Saunders – Offensive Quality Control/Assistant WR Coach
Kirby Wilson – Running Backs/Run Game Coordinator
Rock Cartwright – Offensive Quality Control/Assistant Running Backs Coach
Hal Hunter – Offensive Line Coach
Mark Hutson – Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Greg Seamon – Tight Ends Coach

Defense; Ray Horton – Defensive Coordinator
Robert Nun – Defensive Line Coach
Ken Delgado – Assistant Defensive Line Coach
Johnny Holland – Inside Linebackers
Ryan Slowik – Outside Linebackers
Louie Cioffi – Defensive Backs Coach
Cannon Matthews – Assistant Defensive Backs Coach
Eric Saunders – Defensive Quality Control

Special
Teams; Chris Tabor – Special Teams Coordinator
Shawn Mennenga – Assistant Special Teams Coach
Stan Watson – Special Teams Quality Control

Strength and
Conditioning; Adam Beard – Director High Performance
Derik Keyes – Assistant Strength and Conditioning Coach

Ok, now we need to review the roster, break it down, and delegate responsibilities. This is mere speculative opinion based on positions but at least gives you a sense of how the process begins to take shape for the physical hands on personnel to start reading film, studying the players, conducting background checks for both negatives and positives, reviewing, re-reviewing hours upon hours of scouting information from eyes on scouting such as; what were they doing on the sidelines when the team was down at different points of a game;

Offense; Pep Hamilton – Associate Head Coach/ Offense (Quarterbacks Coach)
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Davis, Austin QB 6'2" 221 26 5
McCown, Josh QB 6'4" 218 36 14
Shaw, Connor QB 6'1" 210 24 2

Al Saunders – Senior Offensive Assistant/Wide Receivers
Bob Saunders – Offensive Quality Control/Asst. WR Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Gabriel, Taylor WR 5'8" 167 25 3
Hall, Rannell WR 6'1" 200 24 1
Hartline, Brian WR 6'2" 200 29 8
Hawkins, Andrew WR 5'7" 180 30 6
Jennings, Darius WR 5'10" 169 23 1
Moore, Marlon WR 6'0" 190 28 7
Pryor, Terrelle WR 6'4" 233 26 4

Greg Seamon – Tight Ends Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Barnidge, Gary TE 6'6" 250 30 9
Bibbs, E.J. TE 6'2" 258 24 2
Hamlett, Connor TE 6'7" 266 23 1
Telfer, Randall TE 6'4" 250 23 1

Kirby Wilson – Running Backs/Run Game Coordinator
Rock Cartwright – Offensive Quality Control/Assistant Running Backs Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Johnson, Malcolm FB 6'1" 231 23 2
Crowell, Isaiah RB 5'11" 225 23 3
Johnson Jr, Duke RB 5'9" 210 22 2
Mostert, Raheem RB 5'10" 195 23 2
Watson, Terrell RB 6'1" 242 22 1
Winston, Glenn RB 6'2" 220 26 3

Hal Hunter – Offensive Line Coach
Mark Hutson – Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Boffeli, Conor G 6'4" 304 24 1
Erving, Cameron OG 6'5" 313 23 2
Johnson, Kaleb OG 6'4" 316 23 1
Bitonio, Joel OL 6'4" 305 24 3
Bowie, Michael OL 6'5" 320 24 4
Gerhart, Garth OL 6'1" 310 27 2
Greco, John OL 6'4" 318 30 9
Pasztor, Austin OL 6'7" 308 25 4
Thomas, Joe OL 6'6" 312 31 10
Ladson, Erle OT 6'6" 346 24 1
Miller, Darrian OT 6'5" 307 22 2
Bailey, Alvin T 6'3" 320 24 4
France, Dan T 6'5" 315 24 1


Defense; Ray Horton – Defensive Coordinator
Eric Saunders – Defensive Quality Control

Robert Nun – Defensive Line Coach
Ken Delgado – Assistant Defensive Line Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Johnson, Cam DE 6'3" 260 25 3
Bryant, Desmond DL 6'6" 310 30 8
Hughes III, John DL 6'2" 320 26 5
Meder, Jamie DL 6'3" 308 24 2
Cooper, Xavier DT 6'4" 300 24 2
Wynn, Dylan DT 6'2" 283 22 1
Shelton, Danny NT 6'2" 339 22 2

Johnny Holland – Inside Linebacker Ryan Slowik – Outside Linebackers
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Bryant, Armonty LB 6'4" 265 25 4
Carder, Tank LB 6'2" 235 27 5
Kirksey, Christian LB 6'2" 235 23 3
Kruger, Paul LB 6'4" 270 30 8
Mingo, Barkevious LB 6'4" 240 25 4
Solomon, Scott LB 6'3" 260 27 5
Tuggle, Justin LB 6'3" 249 26 4
Orchard, Nate OLB 6'3" 255 23 2

Louie Cioffi – Defensive Backs Coach Cannon Matthews – Assistant Defensive Backs Coach
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Ekpre-Olomu, Ifo CB 5'9" 194 22 1
Gaines, Charles CB 5'10" 180 23 2
Baker, Sean DB 6'0" 209 27 2
Desir, Pierre DB 6'2" 206 25 3
Gilbert, Justin DB 6'0" 202 24 3
Haden, Joe DB 5'11" 195 26 7
Jones, Don DB 5'11" 205 25 4
Poyer, Jordan DB 6'0" 191 24 4
Scott, Tim DB 5'11" 195 23 1
Whitner, Donte DB 5'10" 208 30 11
Williams, K'Waun DB 5'9" 183 24 3
Williams, Tramon DB 6'0" 192 33 10
Moore, Rahim FS 6'1" 195 26 6
Campbell, Ibraheim SS 5'11" 208 23 2

Special
Teams; Chris Tabor – Special Teams Coordinator

Shawn Mennenga – Assistant Special Teams Coach
Stan Watson – Special Teams Quality Control
Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Age Exp.
Coons, Travis K 6'1" 200 24 2
Hughlett, Charley LS 6'4" 248 25 2
Lee, Andy P 6'1" 185 33 13

Coaches and Coordinators begin their first OTS’s on April 4th, a full 3 ½ weeks before the Draft. While the coaches are initiating the very first of many hundreds of hours of mental and physical grind for the players, before the final selections more than 4 months away, the behind the scene guys will be crunching the statistical numbers to get to as quick a determination of the “paper” roster before the Draft as possible. We will delve into that beast next. I hope you all find this interesting and maybe even useful while we wait for the Cleveland Browns annual Super Bowl at Draft Day.

Stay tuned Browns Backers!

Most, if not all, teams have Vertical and Horizontal boards. I'm not sure, but I think a lot of this was started by Ron Wolf, the old Packer GM. Belichick and the Browns did a great job of "perfecting" these boards way back in the '90s.

The vertical board lists all the players from 1 through whatever... These boards are typically comprised by your scouting department and personnel guys. Think BPA.

The horizontal boards are where where teams grade and compare the players in the draft w/the guys they currently have on the roster. This obviously takes a lot of time. Think BPA combined w/need and depth of your current roster.

Teams generally want to follow the Vertical board and use the Horizontal board for trades and to move a guy a 2-3 spots at most. For example, you don't want to move a guy from 24 to 18 just because you are weak at WR. And this is why trades occur in the NFL. "Hey, we are pretty sure we can get our guy if we move down to...."

Teams get into trouble when they don't follow that logic and move a guy up the boards to force a pick by leaning too far on the Horizontal board. I think the Brandon Weeden pick is a good example of that.

I enjoy reading your posts. However, I do not think that comment is logical or reasonable. The Browns roster was already substandard. New holes have been created. Two years of draft picks isn't going to make this team a playoff contender.

I don't think he means it to be that dogmatic regarding picking BPA. It's that you set your board according to BPA. When your turn comes up you look at the highest ranking BPA on your board, that's your guy. If it's a Center, for example, and you don't need one then you look at the next BPA on your board.

A quandary: Say the next two players on your BPA board is a CB and then a RB. You feel like you have a need at CB but you really want the RB. Now you have to decide if you're going to follow your strategy to draft BPA or switch-up and draft the RB you want. I think this is where sticking to the strategy you set you take the CB. If you're only going to follow your strategy when it's the easy choice but stray away from it based on needs then why did you bother setting a strategy in the first place. You may as well wing it all the way.

Setting a strategy and sticking to it means everyone knows what's happening and no one guy can upset the apple cart, (Sashi in this case, Holmgren/Farmer in other cases). Deviation just serves to confuse everyone else and places doubt in their minds regarding what's going on.

It's hard to buy in when you've understood your responsibilities according to the set strategy and you've stayed in your lane in a team effort to make it successful and then the guy in charge second-guesses the strategy and does something else. That guy loses credibility in your mind and you are now doubtful of the plan. If that happens enough the organization can end up with a building full of people who don't know what's going on from one day to the next. Dysfunction ensues.

If the dysfunction continues throughout the next season as well then blow it up and bring someone in who can get it right. The problem around here is that no one has been able to get it right in the time alloted them.

That's why I think DePodesta sets those strategies proven to work and Sashi sees to it that the football side follows the strategy by keeping everyone aligned. After major decisions have been made and results return then DePodesta can tweak the strategy if needed.

I agree. I tend to be a BPA supporter. My comment was aimed at comments about having 5 centers on the team. Teams have the ability to take that in to account and raise or drop players.

I'm gong to disagree here and not simply to be confrontational. Key word used was "playoff contender." If I can create one dominating force on both side of the ball, I can dictate.

By that I mean create a strong DL stopping the run game and apply pressure. Create a strong secondary minimizing the passing game. On offense, established 3-4 yards per carry run game. Or, have enough receivers over whelming the defense sustaining long drives.

If we look at the last several years at different playoff teams, you find each have established an identity. Obviously, teams who excel in several areas go further in the playoffs.

I think the key component is coaching. Browns made many attempts using rookie coaches. My theory also assumes one can draft well over a two year period. I don't think you can make a playoff team simply picking players out of a hat.

I think it is vital using the strength of a draft to fix or elevate a part of a team. Two good examples are Houston and Cincinnati. Both established pressure defenses and run game. Seattle stated their run creating a shut down secondary and run game.

Whatsup Lonewolf,
Thanks for taking the time to approach this from a different perspective. I’d really like to see something that will help me regain some of the passion I’ve lost for this team.


You started by establishing credibility and then stated your claim. However, instead of supporting your hypothesis, you chose to support your claim for credibility. I don’t need superfluous details to respect your opinion. I want to know why you believe the Browns are playoff bound in two years. I know you plan to utilize a series of posts to support your opinion, but maybe you could provide a preview of what’s to come.


I’m always interested in what gets someone’s thought train rolling. Did your experience with simulated draft scenarios move you to examine how this has played out in a past draft? Perhaps a reputable sites big board cross-referenced with the actual picks and position runs therein. Using a draft from a few years ago, where the players have had a chance to bust or blossom, would provide some evidence to substantiate or contradict your claim.

Please don’t take my comments as an attempt to dishearten you from your endeavor. I want a reason to feel.

Great feedback everyone,

I'll try to answer each of your questions,

VarmitKong,

I was piddling around with the mock draft game site called First-Pick. I was planning on targeting a RT to add depth to the OL and every time I replayed the game, I kept seeing this same thing happen where tackles were being picked early in the draft that, by the Big Board, should not be going until much later. This triggered a memory of a commentator, I think it was Mike Mayock, stating I bet you will see a run on Cornerbacks here shortly. I decided to see if there was any data to back it up and found this on the NFL website;

Historical NFL Draft Tracker and

Also NFL Draft - just different format easier to group

I did not go into any significant research but saw almost immediately that there were occasions that you can see quick successions of various positions being taken. Take a look at last years Draft in the late 2nd and early 3rd. Between picks 52 and 72 there are 8 OL taken. It's actually a pretty intriguing site when you get to see the number of starter and "make an NFL roster" graded talent who go undrafted.

Hi Bugs, Good to see you here.

You are you are exactly right! The team needs to establish an "IDENTITY". Which, leads back to my hypothesis. I believe this new organization "will" establish an identity, by the end of this year which, will carry over to the 2017 season and the Browns being positioned to truly compete for a playoff position.

Hey ya Vers and Peen,

Here is the next instalment of my Hypothesis data presentation;

Ok, now I look at the breakdown of player age, experience, and historical performance and health record data to help determine potential/durability.


The following data is my rough analysis of each players value to the team and organization. In some cases, I really cannot make a final definitive decision on keeping the individual based solely on the analytics. This is where the information is brought before a review group comprised of the leadership of both the analysis personnel and coaching leadership to present and compare data and come to a conclusion on the usefulness of the player to overall organizational goal which is, winning football games;

Players 30+ years old (only 10 on the team):

Name----------------Pos.---Ht.---Wt.---Age---Exp.

McCown, Josh-------QB---6'4"---218---36---14

Lee, Andy------------P---6'1"---185---33---13

Williams, Tramon---DB---6'0"---192---33---10

Thomas, Joe---------OL---6'6"---312---31---10

Barnidge, Gary------TE---6'6"---250---30---9

Bryant, Desmond---DL---6'6"---310---30---8

Greco, John---------OL---6'4"---318---30---9

Hawkins, Andrew---WR---5'7"---180---30---6

Kruger, Paul--------LB---6'4"----270---30---8

Whitner, Donte-----DB---5'10"---208---30---11


1) Josh McCown – In 13 years of playing he has never completed a season healthy. He is going to cost 5Mil against the CAP and only 1.7Mill if cut post June 1 (If I am reading this CAP contract cost spreadsheet correctly) saving the Browns 3.375Mil towards the CAP. My recommendation, shop him or cut him. I know some feel we need a veteran QB on the team, I say "NUTS"@.

2) Andy Lee – Lee needs to improve based on the numbers. He finished 21st out of the 35 activated Punters last year. The cost is a bit high and I think the team needs to consider going younger with less expensive talent@.

3) Tramon Williams – From a stats perspective I see a CB who is beginning to really show he is losing a step. From the analytic point of view, we take a 3.8Mil hit to the Dead Money CAP but we save 3.2Mil. However, again, we will need the coach and trainer’s perspective. We have sufficient starting/roster caliber corner backs with Haden, Desir, Gaines (serviceable), and we have Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, the consensus 1st rounder the Browns took in the 7th round last year, coming back. Anticipating to be at 100% by training camp and cannot wait for OTA’s from resent reports, Williams is prime for using as trade bait or cutting@.

4) Joe Thomas – For me it’s a tough call on Joe, I respect his sacrifice to this organization, regime after losing regime, and would give him whatever choice he wishes to have. He, of all the players coming through this Browns organization, deserves a Championship ring. Lay out the plan and ask him if he wants to tough it out again or, ask if he wants the organization to work a trade for him to a team that’s in the hunt*.

5) Gary Barnidge – just signed a new contract played in all 16 games and adds both veteran presence and quality game play*.

6) Desmond Bryant – The majority of DB’s contract is already paid and runs through 2017. Granted, there is a really money value in cap savings to dead money here, by 5Mil. However, this is one of those players you need all of the information on to make a decision. He is a solid starter and veteran in the locker room. If he continues to be a major contributor, he may prove to be worth resigning, or using for trade with a team that needs a high contributing veteran to get them over the top in 2017 where we can still save 7Mil against the CAP*.

7) John Greco – I tend to worry less about Guards and Centers when it comes to age than I do Tackles. That said, Greco proved to hold his own last year, even at 30*.

8) Andrew Hawkins – Ultra inexpensive, at 1Mil even, and this is his showcase year as he is under contract until 2017 (1.8Mil). His last 2 years with the team were subpar catching only 50% of his targets compared to his 65% average with the Bengals. With his former Offensive Coordinator taking over as Head Coach I would recommend keeping him through OTA’s and training camp and let the coaches and evaluators make the final call on him. If for nothing more than very serviceable depth*.

9) Paul Kruger – With the drop off in production from 2014 to 2015 I would recommend only keeping him until the coaches determine if he is worth the 7.7Mil he will be due to make this year. From a cost point of view, regardless of when we cut ties with him, he only hits the CAP for 1.2Mil and the Browns save 6.5Mil. With him on contract through 2017, he is on his make it or break it season as well and may blow it up trying to showcase his worth to be given an extension or new contract*/@.

10) Donte Whitner – Of 180 SS in the AFC, Donte is listed as the 8th best. His contract is pretty fair based on comparable veteran Safeties. He is also under contract through 2017. Therefore, this is also a showcase year for him as well. With the consideration of his veteran leadership, for the younger players, tenacity on the field, and potential positive PR of the home sown Safety who came to beleaguered Cleveland to help build a Dynasty with the new owner and front office, I would recommend letting it ride*.


Current CAP space $41Mil. With identified personnel cuts from this section review the Browns can go into the Draft with a couple of high caliber veterans who might be used as trade bait or as the veteran presence in the locker room and a CAP space room of $54+Mil.

This research is taking longer to write out than it does to read and come to my own conclusions. So, rather than keeping everyone waiting for me to try and complete a review of each player from my point of view, I will go ahead and put information I am using, to present my hypothesis relevance tomorrow hopefully. As you will see, we currently have 7 I consider starting or roster depth quality players and 1 that is depth quality however, is too expensive, and 2 that should be cut. The following information will show that we have a very young “core” of players. I am using the following Special Characters to identify keep or cut considerations. Most do not seem to realize how young our team really is or just how many of those very young players are who are key contributors to the team as either starting or backup.

* - Keep
@ - Cut/Trade

Your effort and thoroughness is outstanding.

Pardon me if I'm being dumb, but all I see is information. Where is the analytics showing how this information is used to produce a conclusion?

I believe this is an ongoing piece. Be patient, grasshopper.

OK I've been doing math on worker's since the mid seventies. When I was a second yr apprentice I started running work. Mason. I kept records who performed on the wall and who performed at everything.
I was building the waste
water treatment in Oregon Ohio and I had one of my best worker's washing down.
The owner came out and questioned me. I said I need this down today. You put your best people on it. If he was on the wall his average would be no different than anyone else.
I need this done and I'm going to make sure it is. He never questioned me for the next 15 yrs.

I agree! This is very interesting.

Great Job... Now, after the draft and camp, you'd have to figure out the impact ratio of each player. You can monetize it with the comparative analysis of salary to impact, or in comparison of position analysis via league rankings, or in overall position utility as a part of the teams production.

This should be fun... geek it out.

So far, some of this I agree with and some I do not. I don't think that just looking at age/performance/salary is analytical enough to be a good gauge for our actions. There are more factors in play that need consideration. I'd like to add a little to what you have posted.

First overthecap has a good starting point. They have an offseason team page for every team. You can find it here.

I have included a section from them that talks about expected contract terminations. Keep in mind that they don't take into consideration whether a team is rebuilding or in a playoff hunt.


As you can see, a few of the guys at the bottom of that list have already been released.

I'll start by saying that the key to rebuilding is getting extra draft choices, so there are players that I might not cut, but would trade if it gets us extra picks.

I'm now going to offer my opinions on our over 30 guys that you listed above.

McCown, Josh

Josh's cap hit is $5,041,666 and ranked 30th in the NFL right now. It doesn't get much cheaper than this as far as price/performance. I have no idea why you made the statement about him never being healthy as he has only had 3 seasons in 13 where he has been hurt. (In 2007, 2009, and 2015) That is actually pretty amazing for a QB. He is ranked by sportsinjurypredictor.com tied for have the lowest injury risk with Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers of all NFL QB's.

Josh has an important job because he is the guy that needs to eat snaps until our rookie QB is ready. He has proven that he is more than capable in this role. He has also proven that he is willing to mentor a young QB. In today's market we would be hard pressed to find a QB as cheap with the same performance. The only way I would get rid of Josh is if a QB needy team approached us with an offer of a decent draft choice. Would Denver or maybe the Jets give up a 3rd rounder?

Lee, Andy

Again, I'm not sure where your going with a statement. You have him as finishing 21st as a punter in what exactly? To me, Net Average is probably the most important stat and the Browns were tied with the Ravens at 6th. (46.7 yds) His cap hit is $3,433,000. 4th highest among punters, but again I would only trade him for picks. I wouldn't cut him because the production is there. We would still need to sign another punter and would maybe save a million if we are lucky.

Williams, Tramon

Cap hit is $6,981,250 22nd in the NFL. This is too high for our #2 CB. I'd try the trade market and get what I could, but we may have to cut him. The savings isn't great either way. The dead money would be $3,800,000 and savings would be $3,181,250. the big concern is how healthy Haden is at the start of the season. If we wait one more year with Williams the 2017 dead money is only $500,000 with a cap savings of $7,000,000.


Thomas, Joe

I pretty much agree with you and let him decide if he wants to stay here. If we do trade him, We need to get more than a first rounder and we will need to use a first rounder on a LT. Getting our QB killed is not going to help the rebuilding process.

Barnidge, Gary

We have already made a decision on him. Nothing I need to add

Bryant, Desmond

Cap hit $7,000,000, Dead money $2,000,000, Cap Savings $5,000,000. If you can get a 3rd round or better, you have to trade him and use the 3rd rounder on a DE. He was productive and we already need a DE on the other side, but 3-4 D-lineman do not age well and it's better to get something now before he starts to decline. I don't see anyone giving us a 3rd rounder though unless we wait till after the draft and by that time it's too late to get his replacement. I would not cut him unless we wind up with multiple DE's in the draft and even then I'd try to trade for a pick in next year's draft.

Greco, John

Too much turmoil on the line to even think about losing him this year. His cap hit is only $2,925,000 this year and amazingly it drops to $975,000 next year.

Hawkins, Andrew

$1,000,000 cap hit. Not much more than the minimum. He's worth that for depth.

Kruger, Paul

$7,700,000 cap hit. 7th highest of all 3-4 OLB's. The problem is that nobody else comes close to replacing him. I think that if we get an Edge rusher high in the draft we might still need to bite the bullet and get rid of him this year. We should be able to trade him for a decent pick as Edge rushers are always in demand.

Whitner, Donte

$8,450,000 cap hit. I don't knock the guy's performance as much as some did this year, but I've seen enough promise in Campbell that it's time to see him full time and see what he has. Someone should bite on a trade for Whitner right now, who still has plenty left in the tank in my opinion.




Other guys not mentioned that could be gone...

Justin Gilbert- trade him for a kicking tee for all I care. Someone else will think they can turn around the former first rounder. We have wasted too much time and he is wasting a roster spot.

Barkevious Mingo- I actually think that Horton plans on moving him inside. Given his coverage ability, that might be a better spot for him. If not It may be time to see what we can get for him.

Brian Hartline- I really like Brian's attitude and what he brings to the team, but we will be drafting a WR that will need reps. Brian's cap hit is $3,750,000 and that is too much for a 29 year old bench player. His contract would entice a playoff team needing a one year rental possession WR. Carolina comes to mind.

I love the effort put forth so far and please keep it coming.

Good post Dep.

A couple of comments...

Josh McCown. Not only has he not been injured much, neither has he played as much as your typical 36 year old QB. He's probably running around in a 30 year old body. Maybe not but certainly doesn't have the mileage on him.

Desmond Bryant. I agree with you on trading him. I'd hate to lose him because he is productive. But he's exactly the kind of player you get something for him while you can. If we weren't rebuilding I'd reconsider that.

Paul Kruger. As much as everyone is looking for an edge rusher I'd think his money would make teams think twice in a trade. Not sure a team would give much of a pick for him and the money too. That would be a hard choice.

Donte Whitner. Same as Kruger regarding the pick + money.


I'd be good getting rid of Gilbert and Mingo.


And then a question. Isn't there a limited amount of money we can spend on the rookie pool? Doesn't that limit the number of players we can sign? Am I overlooking the intent of using extra picks for moving up for players we want?

The rookie cap is based on the picks that you have. So when you trade for more picks, you have more rookie cap space.

Thanks!

That is an awesome effort. Thanks for putting so much work into that and for the knowledge. It's nice when posters try and educate others.

A really nice thought out post.

I might ask how McCown has not played 16 games in any season during his career. It is logical to think that he would not play 16 games this year again. We have to get a QB. I am more in the camp of draft and play the guy right away. I would be more than willing to trade McCown if someone made an offer for him. We have the Davis at QB and if Shaw comes back we have him as well.

I am still a Mingo fan. I think he has been misused his entire career. His rookie season was his best and I suspect this season will be leaps and bounds better than the last two.

When I read about how analytics is used. I suspect any player over the age of 26 who is not a difference maker on the field is not going to be retained. I suspect that is why Schwartz was allowed to leave. A right tackle is not a difference maker. The offensive line works as a team. Thomas may be an elite talent on a horrible team. What good does an elite LT do when the team is consistently a 3,4, or 5 win team. I would trade Thomas.

I think Thomas price is at least 2 picks and perhaps three picks. Thomas is worth a 1st Round pick just as a professional LT. Then you have to add the elite talent modifiers. I would accept a 4th as well in this years draft and a 2nd or 3rd in next years draft. His contract is team friendly and lengthy. All selling points.

Whitner, if not able to be traded, cut. He is dead weight on the roster. He is over 26 years old and not a difference maker.

Tramon Williams, cut if not able to trade. He is over 26 years old and not a difference maker.

I would consider trading Haden if I could get things to fall my way contractually and under the salary cap. I think that is nearly impossible though. I think that Haden is misused as well. I hear about shut down corners matching up with the other teams best receivers. Why? Why not put your shut down corner on the best second option for the opponent and scheme to take away the first option. Imagine having Antonio Bryant double and triple covered all the time. Haden should be able to cover any other receiver.

Analytics is the only thing not tried by the Browns since 1999. Time to try it. I am actually looking forward to the draft more than I have in years.

Voleur

I support Sashi.

Thanks DeputyDawg for taking up where I kind of fell off at. I wasn't trying to get overly fancy with the numbers rather to give everyone a slightly different perspective from a numbers point of view. We have 35 players between 22-24 years of age with 1-4 years of experience and another 23 players between 25-29 who have 2-8 years of experience. Most of these players have yet to have an established and seasoned "NFL" Head Coach, let alone a whole team of seasoned NFL coaches and assistants to teach them their respective positions. In addition, most of these players have at least some playing time filling in for injured players at some point last year, giving them a sampling of what NFL game speed is and just how hard the opposing team punches. (Think of them as Red Shirt Freshman)

DD laid out great points better than I think I could have done to show how the money side of the current situation actually favors Hue and company.

It also demonstrates, through the links both DeputyDawg and I provided, that a majority of the players I mentioned/listed, in my earlier post, have very small contracts with at least 2 years remaining. This gives Hue a huge opportunity to use this season to evaluate the talent he has and get, the ones he really wants to keep, signed to a reasonable contract extension, then continue to build from their.

With the latest addition to RGIII, I feel even more confident that there may be better days ahead. Not because I think RGIII is going to reclaim his rookie year form by any means however, it allows the FO to avoid the dreaded knee jerk reaction to jump at the first QB in the selection, and just take the BPA (QB if that's what they see as BPA) or trade if they are not sold on one of the first two or three QB's expected to go off the board.

I know "potential" isn't a word very well liked around here. However, there is a lot of coachable potential on the team, whether Hue and his cadre can whip it into shape is yet to be seen. Remember you have to take into consideration the extra time allotted to the first season head coach starting the first week of April, so he and the coaching staff will get a chance to at least take a quick look at the players up close and personal.

Face it, we are in the first months of silly season. There are going to be so many changes happening between now and the first Pre-Season game we may not even know most of the names on the roster.

Heck, maybe I've just been drinking to much lately and need to take my happy Aztec to bed.

Good night all and have yourselves a Happy Easter.

See you all around Draft Day!

This is a pretty cool interview with Tony Khan (he is the head of the Jaguars analytics department and the son of their owner, Shad Khan. He also worked extensively with Sashi Brown before we hired him):

http://nerdist.com/the-jonah-keri-podcast-16-tony-khan/