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Happy rainy Saturday to all.
Whilst wasting away on this dreary Saturday and watching entirely too many cut-ups I decided to take a gander at the recent history of 1st round QB's and the mysterious 60% completion floor that many expect from college QB's, the results were, shall we say....consistent?
Anyway...
As it turns out, there are only 6 QB's drafted this century who failed to eclipse the 60% completion floor within their last two full seasons of starting in college and still went on to become 1st round draft choices. That list is as follows:
Micheal Vick- 57.7% and 54%
Joey Harrington- 52.8% and 58.8%
Patrick Ramsey- 58.9% and 57.1%
Kyle Boller- 49.3% and 53.4%
JP Losman- 57.4% and 59.5% (so close)
Jake Locker- 58.4% and 55.4%
An impressive list no doubt...and all fall between 2001 and 2011 (so they all have had ample time to either 1) come into their own or 2) play their entire career).
Then I just looked at the last single year of production:
Rex Grossman- 57.1%
Jay Cutler- 59.1%
Josh Freeman- 58.6%
Matt Ryan- 59.3%
Matty Ice! wow! Did not see that coming. Then again his previous year at Boston College he was at 61.6%. But I'll take it! 1 for 10! Booyah!
And, no, I don't want to here about how 1 for 10 is even worse than the success rate of the other 21 quarterbacks taken within that same span (2001-2011), clearly this 60% floor is a myth, my friends, and I have no reason to believe that Josh Allen (56% and 56.3%) could possibly struggle at the NFL level.
People ask me what I do in spring when there's no football. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for fall
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Joined: Feb 2015
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Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
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So...we can mark you down for Allen with the #1 overall?  
1. #GMstrong
2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb
3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa
4. ClemenZa #1
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Joined: Mar 2013
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Legend
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Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
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Hall of Famer
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I think Matt Stafford also fits into your group.
But what is the specific comp% myth you are addressing?
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Joined: Sep 2006
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Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
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completion% is just a stat. A stat can be a flag for you to take a look further. Look at the games.
You might find that the QB makes a lot of deeper throws or his WRs have a propensity to drop balls. Posibally the protection is inferior send QBs out of pocket and throwing the ball away.
Some however you can watch n see too many passes that are complete n are no where near the hands of the WR n yet its a completion.
So stats are useful but when a scout reports that a QB is inaccurate usually it is independant of stats.
Jmho
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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Joined: Sep 2006
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Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
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Eyeball test, 60 is a number.
![[Linked Image from i28.photobucket.com]](http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c201/shadedog/mcenroe2.jpg) gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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Legend
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Legend
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 17,475 Likes: 136
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 17,475 Likes: 136 |
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 891
All Pro
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Legend
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Legend
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Completion percentage is a reference point.
It is important to look at. But to a degree it can be viewed almost like the height of a quarterback.
It is a good rule to follow. However, you still must look harder to find if here is an exception.
Allen is a guy that you have to look at very hard. I stated that in my initial analysis of Allen.
First Wyoming is hardly the hot bed of college talent. Second the good receivers that were there left.
With Allen you have to see why were the passes incomplete. You can not just look at the stat sheet.
Allen with his raw talent may be one of those exceptions. He could benefit greatly from NFL coaching and NFL talent around him.
So the 60% rule is a good one but you have to be aware that there could be exceptions.
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Dawg Talker
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Montana, Marino, Stafford, Favre, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, and Ryan - all under 60%. Not the be all end all, in my opinion.
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To be fair, Palmer's comp percentage his last year in college was 63.2% and Stafford's was 61.4% and McNabb's was 62.5%. So I don't think they fall into the list of recent Qb's that ended their college careers with 2 straight sub 60% completion before entering the NFL. The closest I could find was the aforementioned Ryan who at least ended his last year in college at under 60%. That said, there were quite a few QB's that went to college in the 70's and 80's who would definitely break the "rule" If I didn't know better, I'd think this site didn't appreciate sardonic humor.
People ask me what I do in spring when there's no football. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for fall
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Joined: Jan 2017
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Dawg Talker
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Most on the list also played 3 or 4 years and got progressively better with that additional years.
Allen has only played 2 years, for the most part. Maybe he would have gotten closer to 60% if he remained in college for another 2 years.
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DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft An Exploration of the 60% Rule for
QB's
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