DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2019 NFL Season NFL Post Season 2019 A couple thoughts about the Patriots game

Since the Saturday game thread was locked...

- When did Belichick become so bad at 4th down strategy? Years ago, he was one at the forefront of being one of the league's most aggressive on 4th downs. Since then, he has actually regressed while most of the league has gotten more aggressive, to the point where he is actually now worse than average in this category.

Given the more consistent nature of punting, you rarely have the immediate sort of feedback that leads to criticizing coaches when they punt instead of making a better decision of going for it.

So going off memory here a couple days later, there were 2 situations where Belichick punted on 4th and manageable while trailing in the 4th quarter. First one was earlier in the 4th quarter, I think 4th and 4 but slightly past midfield, where you'd clearly go for it in a neutral game situation, and all the moreso when trailing in the 4th quarter. That was Punt the game away call #1

Punt the game away call #2 was 4th and 3, I think with 3:11 or so left in the game. It was in Patriots territory but losing with that little left in the game on a manageable 4th down, punting is just excruciatingly bad. What exactly are they hoping for? Derrick Henry to bulldoze his way to a first down and an easy win? Hope for a 3 and out and get the ball back the same position but with less time and none of your timeouts?

Note that these were objectively bad decisions, regardless of what ended up happening in the game. "But Belichick did it so it must be smart" is a silly counterargument though I expect to hear it anyway. There was some rain that day and more of a defense/special teams component to the game than usual, but not enough to justify those decisions.

- So the Patriots did end up getting the ball back... down by 1 point, at their own 1 yard line, with 15 seconds left on the clock.

Was an intentional safety a legitimate possibility? Just snap the ball out of the endzone; no time would be lost.

The Patriots could then attempt an "onside kick" on the safety punt and try to recover the ball down 3 with at least somewhat reasonable field position. It would be a long shot but possibly better than trying to score from your own 1 yard line with 15 seconds left? Of course, they threw a pick 6 which led to other interesting possibilities.

IDk maybe having a defense that outscored entire offenses 5 games through the season was a reason.

I would suspect he had more faith in his defense at that point then his offense to convert.

Having faith in the defense basically just means a somewhat higher chance to get the ball back for the offense to score in a worse position - with less time and timeouts. (edit: And even that's going on a handful of regular season performances, not the reality of the game where Derrick Henry ran for 182 yards. How is voluntarily giving the ball away there not considered a massive risk in itself??)

Statistics and anecdotes like the ones you posted don't change a whole lot in regards to how bad it is to punt the ball on 4th and manageable, while losing, with 3 minutes left in the game.

i think it was mainly to do with the offense not being good the last half of the season. Brady still got it but its a noticeable drop in play, but there's just not that much talent on that side of the ball outside White and Jules.

the problem is that jules is also not as good. he's old, beat up, and also led the league in drops this season, such as the MASSIVE drop he had in the 4th that wouldve gotten them the 1st down.

No reliable TE's, no reliable WR's, and the only consistent weapon you have is White, who can run and catch. defenses can just stack the box against the patriots and actually force Brady to beat them through the air.

i think the problem isn't BB's strategy. i think its BB being a cheap ass when it comes to talent that finally caught up to him this season.

It's a headscratcher when you have a RB that's been absolutely owning you all game.

But I think it just came down to an offense that has been nowhere near the Patriots usual standard, and a defense that was absolutely manhandling opponents at times throughout the season.

With all the issues, they were still a middle-of-the-road offense, and very capable of picking up 3-4 yards or more.

The Patriots were going to have to trust their offense under the very-good scenario of getting the ball back anyway... even if they force a 3 and out, they'd still get the ball back in similar field position, but with less time and timeouts.

There's always the freak chance that the punt returner muffs the punt, or Henry fumbles, or the Titans throw an errant pass or whatever (though unlikely TEN passes as Henry was running over the Pats all game) but realistically, their best chance was just to go for it, especially on the Punt the game away call #2. Convert there and the Pats would actually be in pretty good shape, with timeouts remaining and about 3 minutes to play. In 4 down territory and only needing a FG to win, that's a pretty good spot to be in.

It's like they are so used to playing with the lead that they forgot the sense of urgency needed when they are losing with the clock ticking down in the 4th quarter.

I think the Pats lack of trust in their playmakers and OL dictated an awful lot ... they didn’t seem the same the whole season

I think they lacked actual playmakers. I like Edelman, but he's not a WR1. Sony Michel is pretty good too, but he's not a bell-cow RB. They also missed Gronk very much this year.

Belichick makes mistakes all the time. He is still the greatest head coach of all time. Every coach makes mistakes. Lombardi made tons of them. Paul Brown made some real head-scratchers. Being a great coach doesn't make you infallible.

I am actually surprised that Belichick and Brady haven't both come out and announced retirement. They should have done that after last years SB win.

Yeah, for once the Browns out drafted the Pats. They took Sony Michel and then we took Chubb. I'll take Chubb over SM all day every day. Too bad the guy that drafted Chubb was run out of town for doing a great job.

Good points and I agree.

The 4th downs I pointed out are particularly head-scratching because the scenarios can largely be laid out ahead of time, and then adjusted somewhat based on current game conditions. And it just shows you that even the greatest coach of all time still flubs these decisions... they were almost McCarthy-esque.

I posted a lot about this past off-season. My hope was the Browns would be on the forefront and gain that advantage but it ended up being the Colts and Ravens, unfortunately (though Freddie was still pretty aggressive and certainly better than most in this one area.)

That's the same guy that drafted Corbett instead of him, and wouldn't have had the pick to draft him if wasn't for someone else

For the record, I had not looked at any sites regarding Belichick's decisions this weekend before making this thread. I do have a general 4th down model in my head that would be considered aggressive by the vast majority of NFL fans and that is roughly in line with (and largely based on) what the numbers say.

So without further qualifiers: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...loss-to-titans/

--

Bill Belichick got ultra-conservative on fourth downs in loss to Titans
Posted by Michael David Smith on January 8, 2020, 9:53 AM EST

One of the most surprising aspects of the Patriots’ wild-card round loss to the Titans on Saturday was that Bill Belichick twice decided to punt on fourth-and-short while trailing in the fourth quarter.

Down 14-13 with 12:52 to play, the Patriots faced fourth-and-3 at the Titans’ 47-yard line. Instead of trusting Tom Brady and the offense to pick up three yards, Belichick decided to punt. Thanks to Mike Vrabel using a Belichick clock management tactic against him, the Titans’ ensuing possession took up most of the fourth quarter: By the time the Titans punted, they had run more than eight minutes off the clock.

After that Titans punt, the Patriots gained 20 yards on their first play but then stalled and faced fourth-and-4 from their own 37-yard line with just 3:17 left in the game. Again, Belichick decided to punt. That time the Titans ran a long enough possession to force the Patriots to use all three of their timeouts, and by the time New England got the ball back they were in a basically impossible position, at their own 1-yard line with 15 seconds left.

The analytics site EdjSports.com uses a model to judge coaches’ fourth down decisions and said that Belichick had the second-worst game of any coach all season in terms of how much his fourth down decisions set the Patriots back. (The EdjSports.com model also dinged Belichick for a fourth-and-3 field goal in the first quarter, a fourth-and-goal field goal in the second quarter and a fourth-and-1 punt in the second quarter, although it was the decisions in the fourth quarter that were most costly.)

Belichick famously made one of the most aggressive fourth down calls in NFL history when he went for it on fourth-and-2 at his own 28-yard line late in a 2009 loss to the Colts. He was widely criticized by fans and the media for that, but the analytics community said it was the right decision, even though it didn’t work. Belichick could have used more of that aggressiveness on Saturday.

More detailed breakdown here: https://edjsports.com/articles/risky-business-wild-card-weekend/

The thing about play calling is it isn't a one size fits all that some would like to make it out to be. The vast majority of it is based on your team and your roster.

Do you have the beef up front in those short yardage situations? How has your team faired in those situations over the course of the season? In such situations do you favor depending on a strong defense to get the ball back or do you depend on a weaker offense in that situation?

BB didn't forget how to coach.

Of course you can adjust this based on game situation, personnel, strength of your team, weather, etc.

However, the decision to punt on 4th and 4, from the Patriots 37, down 1 with 3:17 left in the game-- even with all timeouts remaining-- is staggeringly bad. No realistic confluence of factors could justify that. That this is even up for debate among smart people is evidence of how bad football coaches have mangled this strategy over the years. Decisions like this are seen as almost normal, because that's the way it has always been done. Add in something something about field position (what about keeping possession and scoring, when you are down late in the fourth quarter?) and fears of doom and gloom when you fail to convert.


More discussion: https://edjsports.com/articles/risky-business-wild-card-weekend/ (GWC stands for game winning chance.. i.e. the calculated probability to win the game.)

As usual it boils down to a debate over analytics and decision making by a HC.

I'm going to stick with one of the greatest HC to have ever coached a team in the NFL.

I agree he is one of the greatest HC over-- probably the best in fact-- but still think it was a terrible decision. Actually multiple terrible decisions, the last one discussed here being the worst of them all.

There's a good chance that Belichick already recognizes his error(s) in that game and realizes he should have gone for it at least on the more obvious ones that game. Good luck getting him to admit it, though.

He will have to adjust or slowly, but surely, lose his spot at the top of the game. This is something us Browns are going to have to deal with as well. I'm not sure people understand how difficult it is going to be to contend with that Ravens offensive juggernaut, all the advantages that brings, with a head coach that understands proper 4th down strategy.

The Ravens success this year wasn't some fluke. It was figuring out what the inefficiencies in the league were and doing them better.

They did what many Coach's refuse to do . Put a round peg in a round hole and a square peg in square hole. Built their O around their personel , not visa versa ..

Agreed. There are many lessons to be learned there. I wish it wasn't the Ravens.