DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum 2009 Draftees: Their rookie seasons

Maclin, Mack, Harvin, Oher, Matthews, Wells, Nicks, and Britt were among the best rookies this year and all taken at pick 19 or later. Most of the first half of the first round wasn't close to as good except Cushing, Orakpo, and Crabtree. It would be something if the 2nd half of the first round ended up having more studs than the first half considering this was a year that most people said the difference in talent between pick one and pick 32 wasn't as great as in most years.

Nd what does the relative success of the back half of the first round compared to the first half have to do with the teams picking them?

Toad
I am now very happy with the Mack pick. He had no business being the starter this year but he seems to have progressed enough for me to be confident that he will be a very solid player.

I would have loved to get Clay but it was based on my love of his dad. I get very weary of taking a guy at a position where there were so many are standouts on the team. I think AJ Hawk and Carpenter are a good examples. Most people said that USC guys were legit, and they were right.

If Davis had picked Crabtree I think no one would be questioning him anymore. The fact that he acted like such an ass only enforces people's opinion of him. Happy to see Macklin working out since he is a local boy.

Overall I think Mangini was smart to trade back the way he did. We saved a lot of doe by bringing in role players from the Jets and by not drafting a high pick that could have been a bust. It is the right thing to do if you are in rebuilding mode....wait for it...wait...Like you said all along.

I think Ammo again blew it.He said Robiskie was a bum (because his high school team stopped him ) but changed his attitude when we picked him. He was right (and so was I) that he was a waste. Rookie season or not I'm going to proclaim he will be a bust. Thgat's right, I actually came of the fence for once.

Hey Overtoad thanks for the read bro. We have our differances but this was a cool thing to write up for us bunch of football hacks. LOL. Thanks man really enjoyed it.

I'd say Matthews and Cushing both have Barwin beat as pass rushers.

Just clicking

Toad,, nice work on your post..

Unlike some, I'm not ready to call guys like Robo or Veikune a bust.. haven't seen them play or play enough to know. to say they are a bust is pure speculation.

I remember when we drafted Mack, I wasn't at all excited about it that day. Did some research on the guy after and yeah, he's a solid player.. But dang it, did we really really need a center.

But hindsight being what it is, I see that it was a good move. Mack is going a pretty darn good job.

Not as flashy as some guys we could have drafted.. but you need trench guys that become your foundation.. so, I'm good with it..

For further proof that Massa is exactly what he looks like to my (and Rish's) eye....and that he hasn't even remotly outperfomed his draft slot (actually, I think the following will strengthen my point that indeed he's been worse)

- Massa is 10th in rookie WR catches in the league

- Massa is 7th in rookie WR yards....he was the 8th WR taken in this draft, the 7th, as we know, being Robo

that's already NOT looking too good for him...but it gets worse:

Massa has been targeted 91 times so far, making 33 catches...that's just horrible....I know we have QB's with accuracy issues but even if you give him 10% (which is genorous) more because of that, it's still pretty bad...like....really bad

Here are those #s for other rookie WR:

Collie: 86 targets, 59 catches
Harvin: 81/53
Maclin: 83/52
Nicks: 73/46
Crabtree: 78/45
Knox: 80/45
Britt: 74/41
Wallace: 69/37
Murphy: 87/28


2nd tier guys:
Thomas: 53/41 (I know why I liked him....JAX WR with most targets lately btw)
Hartline: 52/29
Stroughter: 58/31
Gibson: 62/31
Edelman: 39/27
DHB: 40/9
Dillard: 8/6

Robo: 21/7

source:http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/receiving/sort/receivingTargets

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Now does he pass they eye-ball test? He body-catches at times and he runs rough routes at times. Those are legitimate concerns.

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aren't they also rookie mistakes that can be coached?

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... there are too many factors to accurately judge some of these players.

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There are too many variables to judge any player by stats alone.

What does "targeted" mean by definition? If a WR has a ball thrown a yard-and-a-half over his head is he still considered targeted? If it hits the ground in front of his feet is that targeted as well? Because to be targeted 91 times and catch only a third of them there would have to be a history making number of drops and many, many more bouncing off a WR's hands. I don't think an uncatchable ball should count as targeted but I'll bet it does. So of what value is that stat?

When you've got Favre, Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees, etc., "targeting" you then you are going to have a much better targeted to catch ratio. If you've got BQ or DA targeting you, well, good luck with your career numbers.

This is but one reason that stats are for losers. Stats cannot be reliably counted on as a measuring stick for anything other than the offense as a whole. The OL can't block then the RB has low yardage. Stats blame the RB. Since it's so hard to stat the OL then it can only be considered as a running game stat and not all on the RB.

MoMass is not playing like a #1 receiver picked in the first round. But then he was not expected to ever be that guy due to his lack of breaking speed, nor was he picked that high. He does body catch more than he should even though he seems to have good hands. That shows a lack of confidence. Success builds confidence. Hopefully as the future unfolds he'll improve.

He stands out a bit on this team as we have so few playmakers. If he played equally as well on a much better team he wouldn't stand out so much. But then on a much better team he'd likely be put in a better position to succeed and "stat out" much better than he does here.

The same thing applies to some other players as well. Who knows how well Robo would have done had he not set while the failed Cribbs at WR experiment was going on? Personally I think Cribbs would be a YAC demon if he knew how to get open and someone could throw him a good ball in stride. (If we had ham we could have ham & eggs if we had eggs). Who knows how much better our QB's could have played if the right side of the OL had been better and Harrison had started playing sooner?

There is ALWAYS too many variables to use stats as a measuring stick or as a comparison to other players at the same position on other teams. There's 10 other guys who can make a big difference, good or bad, in those numbers.

ddub, Toad

1st off...read my 1st sentence of my post "further proof"...my opinion of Massa, the WR, stems from what I saw of him in College and now with us....I don't think he's any good to be honest...then....looking up those stats I was like "wow, here are some numbers to STRESS my point"

the "what is targeted" rhetoric is that, rhetorical excuse....every WR in the league will have targets thrown over his head or at their feet....the QBs are, as I already admitted, an argument...but DA and Quinn are maybe 5-12% less accurate (statistically) than others, hey...you know what, I'll give you 20% and Mass still has a horrible 40% ratio...

As often as the QB being inaccurate or making wrong decisions it's the WR doing the same...so the blame is to share....those other WR I listed are rookies too....they aren't finished or perfect by any means too....yet they are at least around league average in this category

Massa has most targets (opportunities) and is the 10th WR in catches (rookies)....that, imho, speaks volumes....and targets-to-catch ratio IS a pretty good indicator of a WR reliability...BE sucked here too (and still does in NY) and I always pointed it out, even after his PB season when I wanted to trade him...remember?...

and Massa was supposed to be a poss-WR ...and we run a very conservative Offense with lots of short routes on top....any way I look at this he doesn't come out any good

I really disliked Mass out of College, he was all potential with littlle to nothing of production until his last 6 games as a senior, when he probably realized that he can make some money with his size and exposure of a Top5 QB throwing his way...Mangini was the fool that took the bait....meanwhile Collie did nothing but catch passes his entire College career and drops all the way to round 4 and now is one of Peyton's fav targets already

As Attack calls em...Massa's a "complementary player"....he doesn't look like he wants to be the go to guy and I severly doubt he has the athletical skills it takes for it anyway...he's basically a nicer but less talented version of BE

He was very inconsistent (and that's being nice, he was a flat underachiever) his college career and now his rookie season as a Brown...I don't expect this to change much going forward

Don't let Django"s over-inflated opinion of his football knowledge bother you. He's all right, just one of those stat lovers, except when the stats favor someone he doesn't

Keep ignoring facts....and if you still don't get that I stressed that this is just proof for my opinion then you'll probably never get much of anything....and if your problem is that of differing and strong opinions...you know what? There are a lot of sects out there

but I'll throw another bone your way:

Winslow 149/82 in 2007, 81/43 in 2008

Jurevicius 81/50 in 2007

They had the same QBs, even younger and less experienced, than Massa, right? Even BE managed 154/80 in 2007...

Robo and Massa are combined 112/40....

yeah, the reason our passing attack sucked are our QBs....the QBs are the same as in 2007 and 08....OC, TE and WR changed, get real folks

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1st off...read my 1st sentence of my post "further proof"...my opinion of Massa, the WR, stems from what I saw of him in College and now with us....I don't think he's any good to be honest...then....looking up those stats I was like "wow, here are some numbers to STRESS my point"

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I should have replied directly to you rather than to Toad. As I look at it now it appears that I was talking about you while you were sitting right here at the same table. We'll, I was, but I started out agreeing with Toad so replied to him.

I have no problem with your take on MoMass. You see what you see and I can't say I see him a lot differently. I don't typically watch college ball so missed out on anything he'd done there. I only know him from his time here with the Browns. In his time here I've seen the bad routes, drops, the chest catching. I get that. But I've also seen good hands, YAC and overall improvement. I feel what I see is the need to develop confidence and consistency. But it's an uphill battle when the whole offense lacks confidence and consistency.

Many, many rookie WR's have strugled early on. Some of the best have. And believe me, I'm not saying he has the potential to be another Jerry Rice just because Jerry Rice struggled in his rookie season too. That sort of argument is always absurd. But given another year, or maybe two if needed, some need that, he could be a valuable #2.

Holmgren is going to make sure that our WR's are being coached up as that is one of his own traits as a coach and I doubt he'll settle for less on a team in which he is the President. Maybe for the first time our WR's will get what they need from their WR coach whomever that will be. It's always been a sore spot with me that our WR's have always underachieved. Maybe they've all just lacked talent. You can't actually teach them to catch if they can't by now, but I'm suspect that none of them have ever run great routes and I blame their WR coach to a large degree for that.

So what I see in MoMass is a player with enough talent to become a valuable asset on this team. He needs time, he needs his QB to play with some confidence and consistency, he needs a professional OC to put him in the best position to succeed and he needs his WR coach to teach him to run routes. I think those are the minimum to ask of the team and with that I believe he will be fine.

I really don't believe you can fairly compare him to a guy like Collie who is playing in the Colts offense. There, Collie has all the things surrounding him that MoMass does not have here. It makes a difference I'm sure.

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... but DA and Quinn are maybe 5-12% less accurate (statistically) than others,

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There goes that "statistically" stuff again. It just doesn't fly. We've all seen what we get out of our QB's and it sure isn't 5-12% less than the others. Hell, that actually makes them sound pretty good. It would at least make them average but they both have one long way to go to be considered average.

You could be spot on about MoMass. That's yet to be determined. If he dropped every ball he'd suck and we'd all know it. If he caught every ball he'd be great and we'd all know it. But right now he's middle of the road and as such I may see one thing while you see another. But that's what opinions and discussions are all about.

I just don't feel that stats prove much of anything other than he is statistacally about as good as the rest of the offense. There's something very telling in that.

Fair is fair ddub, I really hoep he proves me wrong and at least becomes a decent #2 WR, which I think is his absolute best case scenario...

But over the last seasons I've learned that this particular stat is a vey telling one about WR "reliability" (not just ability...after all there are different types of WR, asked to do different stuff/run different routes etc)...I'm not saying Massa has 0 talent, he has...he had it in college...he's just been an underachiever his whole career and that's what I saw here out of him as a rook....some really nice catches and some boneheaded drops or lack of effort and hand-eye coordination = inconsistency

Overall, I just don't think he's part of the solution....Mangini now drafted 2 WRs high and WR is still one of our bigggest needs, especially a playmaker since the dolt drafted 2 identical slow footed poss-WR at that....since none of them will ever become a #1 WR (lack of ability/ceiling) pretty much by default we've drafted a bust since the other one will be a #4 poss-WR at best (none is a slot guy, I disagree here with Toad...I don't see Robo as a good fit as slot-WR....I like some speed there as most NFL teams do....see Wal¤ace in PIT or Harvin in MIN or Thomas in JAX)...right now, Robo looks like to be that default guy

Ughh. I wish there were a way to mute his quotes, too.

On the other hand, later, in a critical 3rd and long situation DA fires a strike to a well covered Mass who catches it and fights for a yard-and-a-half and gets the first down.

Targeted 1
Catches 1



MoMass has whiffed on a lot of catchable balls. But on this team with these two QB's a great many throws have not been catchable.