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#554702 12/31/10 03:26 AM
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So with seeing several coachs fired this season and many more on the hot seat this made me think. This is way to fickle of a league. So I decide to do some research to see what I would find. Also this is relevant to us as Browns fans.

2008 Coaching Changes

Mike Smith-Atlanta Falcons
John Harbaugh-Baltimore Ravens
Tony Sparano-Miami Dolphins
Jim Zorn-Washington Redskins

Midseason Replacements

Jim Haslett- St Louis Rams
Tom Cable-Oakland Raiders
Mike Singletary-San Francisco 49ers

7 total new coachs by the end of 2008(7 out of 32 teams)

2009 Coaching Changes

Eric Mangini-Cleveland Browns
Josh McDaniels- Denver Broncos
Jim Schwartz-Detriot Lions
Todd Haley-KC Chiefs
Jim Caldwell-Indianapolis Colts
Rex Ryan-New York Jets
Steve Spagnuolo-St Louis Rams
Tom Cable-Oakland Raiders(Kept as HC)
Mike Singletary-San Francisco 49ers(Kept as HC)
Jim Mora-Seattle Seahawks
Raheem Morris-Tampa Bay Bucs

Midseason Replacement
Perry Fewell-Buffalo Bills

12 new coachs by the end of 2009, 2 were kept replacements. (12 out of 32)

2010 Coaching Changes

Chan Gailey-Buffalo Bills
Mike Shanahan-Washington Redskins
Pete Carroll-Seattle Seahawks

Midseason Replacements
Jason Garrett-Dallas Cowboys
Leslie Frazier-Minnesota Vikings
Eric Studderville-Denver Broncos
Jim Tomsula-San Francisco 49ers

7 total new coachs in 2010. 7 out of 32. Several more on the hot seat this season too. I expect to see 3 more replacements if not more.

Final Stats
In the last 3 seasons there have been 26 different men as head coach of a team.

The following teams have had a head coach change:

Falcons,Ravens,Dolphins,Rams,Redskins(2x),49ers(2x),Raiders,Browns,Broncos(2x),Lions,Chiefs,Colts.Jets,Bucs,Seahawks(2x),Bills,Cowboys,Vikings

Thats 18 out of the 32 teams changing coachs And 4 changing twice!

I don't think that is enough time to build a winner. As we as Browns fans know 4 regimes in 10 years has been awful for us.

So I wanted to look at some Coachs who had longevity and how it turned out.

Bill Cowher-Made Playoffs 1st six seasons. 1st two years lost the first playoff game. Now a days people would get upset(Marty in San Diego). Then had 3 losing seasons in a row 98-2000. Overall went to two Super Bowls and won one. 10 play off years in 15 seasons. Also helped build Mike Tomlin's Super Bowl teams.

Bill Belichick-Not that this needs stated but 4 losing seasons and 1 play off year as Browns coach. Went 5-11 1st year as Pats coach. 8 Play off teams in next 10 seasons after that. 3 Super Bowl wins and 4 appearances. Note worthy, the two non playoff seasons were 11-5 and 9-7 teams. Both better than our best seasons in recent memory.

Tony Dungy- 1st season as Bucs coach went 6-10. Overall 4 playoff appearances in 6 seasons for Bucs. Next season Jon Gruden wins super Bowl with Bucs. As Colts coach made playoffs all 7 seasons. Wins one Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell takes team to Super Bowl the season after Dungy retires.

Jeff Fisher-6 playoff appearances in 15 seasons. 1 Super Bowl appearance. 5 of non playoff teams were 8-8. So close but no cigar. Went 1st four seasons without the playoffs then made the Super Bowl

Mike Shanahan-7 playoff appearances in 14 seasons. 2 Super Bowl wins. 1st season was 8-8. Was fired after 1 1/2 seasons as Raiders head coach.


Moral of the story. Building a franchise takes time. We need to stop rebuilding. I would rather reach the end of the rope with Mangini than fire him prematurely.


Sorry for the long read. Hope it was somewhat thought provoking.

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Quote:


Moral of the story. Building a franchise takes time. We need to stop rebuilding. I would rather reach the end of the rope with Mangini than fire him prematurely.





You may be right, but I don't think the evidence here is particularly strong, to be honest. Of the five examples of long-term coaches you listed, four were in the playoffs in either their first or second year. Dungy did it twice. Like it or not, the NFL is a results-based league. Those coaches showed measurable progress (i.e. wins and playoff appearances) early enough to buy themselves that time.

All you've really shown here is that winning leads to longevity. It doesn't necessarily follow that longevity leads to winning.


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It's a brutal business. It's an impatient sport. No one wants to build a team consistently.

There are times where a coach is clearly outmatched. Romeo Crennel was obviously outmatched as a head coach. He was a great coordinator, but not a great head coach. At least he got 4 years to fail.

However, and I'll use something I have read lately on the board as an example.

"Mangini is obviously a coach who can build a solid team, but what if he isn't the one to take it from there?".

However, no one knows if this is the case, but people are willing to err on the side of "start over again" than to have a little patience and see what he builds.

What if Mangini is the coach to take this team all the way ..... and we make a change again ..... then maybe we can make another change 2 years from then ...... and maybe another 3 years from there ..... and we can remain a team in flux as opposed to being a team with consistency that is trying to build the team the right way.

We'll have to see what happens ..... but I have a feeling that we'll hear "we had to tear things down and start over defensively" if we hire another head coach ..... then maybe 2 years from now we can be back to being "on the right track" again.


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Some of those coaches really needed to be gone.. there isn't any doubt but, not all of them

We live in a "gameboy"/"fantasy league" world where you push a button, and everything works better than it did the day before.

That's the mentality of the fans today and the league is catering to them. Not that catering to the fans is a bad thing, but they go to far with this I think.

Most of the malcontentedness stems from the Media however.. all the speculation, all the chatter, all the BS starts most often with the media.. They like to stir the pot...

So it's really no wonder that this happens.


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Of the 18 teams that have had a coaching change, 5 of them are in the playoffs this year so far (Rams would make 6), 3 others could be on the right track. Then it's possible Cowboys and Vikings could bounce back next year. 9/18 teams seem to be doing ok after a coaching change. The argument that a coaching change leads to turmoil isn't exactly true. Given the data here, I'd say changing coaches is 50/50 chance at things improving or getting worse.


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Hey! Who stretched the thread?

There is a lot to like about Mangini. There is a lot of bonehead in him as well.

I do think his plan, his "process" if you will, is a good philosophy in building a team. To a degree it seems to be working. Though I'm not so sure sometimes if his 4 step process of bringing in the right type of players, to playing tough and physical, to learning to win, then learning to win consistently is a philosophy so much as an observation Still, knowing what stage your team is in and focusing the coaching on improving that stage is huge in building a contender.

His offensive philosophy of planning to the strengths of his own team and against the weakness of the opponent, making each game's plan an individual effort rather than doing the same thing vs. every opponent with only minor changes, is sound as well. I don't think he's been good at implementing this but it is a good philosophy.

I'm in agreement with his defensive philosophy of running a 3-4 although the 3-4 that we are running is not necessarily that which he would run so much as what Rob Ryan runs. Mangini's defensive background is not the attacking style that Ryan prefers. It is more of the Romeo Crennel bend-but-don't-break version. Still, I like that he sticks with the 3-4.

His philosophy of building a very strong special teams unit is sound too. As we've witnessed many games are decided by close scores and it is often the special teams units that come up big in those games.

He seems to handle his players well. Some of that is due to his efforts in bringing in the sort of characters who do not rock the boat, though perhaps at the expense of talent sometimes. I appreciate that we no longer have the soap opera crap we had here for so long. Notice that we no longer have to deal with either the prima donnas or overly outspoken idiots that infested our team previously.

The players all seem to be on the same page or at least work together as if they were. Given enough time to build an entire roster of highly talented players of this ilk would go a long way toward building a dynasty. But in todays NFL is there enough time for that? If he has a shortcoming in this area it's that he is not a strong personality so he avoids dealing with the strong personality. But often in sports as in business, it's the strong personality who excels.

He is willing to work with his superiors in a harmonious manner to implement team philosophies and seems to work hard at being on the same page with them. At times I wonder if that is simply a means to an end in trying to retain his position as head coach but so far he looks to be buying into Holmgren's plan.

There are probably more positive points in his favor that I'm not thinking of at the moment but a look at this list would make it a no-brainer to retain him as head coach as he has the team as a whole heading in the right direction and deserves credit for much of that. It would be very different if a new head coach was installed who lacked in these important areas of head coaching.




Though those are positives most of which are philosophies regarding off the field, non-game time issues, you still have to game plan and coach the team on game-day. I'm sorry, but I don't see as many positives in that regard and that's where I see more negative issues than not.


Even though he has shown that he can game plan successfully as witnessed by a couple of wins and our close scores vs. top competition, the consistent manner in which this team plays up or down to the level of the competition make me wonder exactly what is his approach and mind-set vs. any given team.

It seems we go all out vs. the really good teams yet play timid and afraid to lose vs. the bad teams. This does not make sense to me. If he would plan for and coach vs. the bad teams in the same manner in which he does vs. the really good teams then I believe it would have shown in a much improved record overall. Why is he obviously not doing this? And it is obvious if you get the chance to watch the games.

The "no talent" card cannot be played in these instances. Talent enough to go toe to toe with New Orleans, the Pats, the Jets, but lacking in enough talent to do the same vs. one and 2-win teams? Here is where I throw the BS card on the talent issue. Those games vs. the lesser teams are being planned differently and it makes no sense.

His game day decisions, particularly in stressful situations is questionable and it has been questioned by fans and media alike.

The end of the game vs. the Jets when it seemed he was not sure if he wanted to run out the clock or play for the win. That was obvious as we were backed up in our own territory and he called a series of plays that at first made it look like he was going for a win, then like he gave up on that and was willing to settle for a tie, then went right back to a call that was again playing for the win.

I'd have been good either way, but it was that 2nd down play that appeared he gave up on winning that made the 3rd down play a last resort destined to not work. If you are going for the win then all three downs need to be plays of that approach. If you are going for the tie then all three plays need to be plays that run time off the clock for the tie. But the way he mixed them up was detrimental to either approach. Is that sound coaching?

That series resulted in neither getting us a first down in our quest for a win nor did it run enough time off the clock for the possibility of a tie. So what happened was we gave the Jets the ball with enough time to score for a win.

Never mind blaming the defense for giving up the play. What about the decision, or lack of decisiveness that put them in that situation in the first place?

Vs. the Bills we drive down the field on nothing but Hillis, and a 5 yard run by Bell, completely dominating the Bills' defense and are facing the opportunity to score on 4th and 1. With Hillis, at the time, being the best back in the league at getting that 1 yard we don't run him again. Nor do we run any other type of play that could possibly result in a TD opting instead to take the three points.

It's not like it was crunch time and we had to get that 3 points or face a loss. that drive only took 4:49 off the 60 minute game clock. We had virtually the whole game to still to play even if we hadn't scored. I'm no NFL coach, but it seemed the perfect time to take chance. Had we scored we would have set the tone and to a degree made them feel we could kick their ass. If we don't there's still 55:11 to play and we let them know that we're playing to win.

Instead, we give the Bills defense a ton of momentum because we backed down, (yeah, they would have had momentum if we'd not scored at all but at least they'd have come away knowing they were in for a fight. But we backed down basically telling them we didn't think we could beat them), we also gave a vote of no confidence to our offense who I'm sure were chomping at the bit to go for it.

We weren't playing the Steelers where you'd better get your points when the opportunity arises. We were playing a 2-win team.

These kinds of coaching decisions can be game changing in favor of or against us.


Horrible clock management at the end of the half vs. the bengals.

Brutal clock management at the end of the half vs. the Rats and questionable decision to begin the second half. In the red zone facing an opportunity to score a TD he was more concerned with stopping the Rats from scoring. He admitted as much. Does that make sense? Of course the time you leave on the clock is important, but he made it more important than our own scoring and as a result robbed us of an opportunity.

He mismanaged the clock so severely that it impeded McCoy on his second down throw, (as he knew he had to make a quick decision and throw to leave time for the field goal), and also lost us a shot at a TD on third down as we didn't have enough time and had to take a field goal on third down. That lost us a play from the red zone because Mangini didn't want to risk, and risk is an important work in this scenario, that the Rats might haven an opportunity to score.

Then, completely reversing his philosophy of not wanting to risk a scoring opportunity for the Rats he calls an onside kick to begin the second half. Yes, had it worked it would have been genius.

But what concerns me is how you go from losing a down and a scoring opportunity for your own team because you are afraid to risk giving the opponent 30 seconds to score on a 60 to 80 yard drive, to taking such a risk as to call a play that is 50/50 at best and knowing that if not successful your opponent will have the opportunity to score on a 40 yard drive with 30 minutes to do so?

Does not anyone else see this as questionable thinking, undecided in the approach, Jekyl & Hyde risk management and simply a bad decision both at the end of the 1st half and at the beginning of the 2nd? Do good head coaches make decisions like this? And especially, do they do it back to back?

There have been many other questionable in game decisions. Most of them put our players in less than the best situation to succeed. A lot of them were made from the offensive side of the ball which brings up the next bullet point...


His offensive philosophy is designed for a team with great talent. Instead of playing to the strengths of his own team he stubbornly game plans the offense to be something it cannot be, which is namely a smash-mouth running offense who can ride the back of one man (Hillis) for 16 games. It seems that by design this offense is geared to running the ball and throwing to the running back and TE almost exclusively. In my opinion, and maybe it's only me, but somehow the offense has to be more creative than that. Teams have discovered, duh, that if you stop Hillis and double Watson we got nothing else going for us.

With a full training camp and a 16 game schedule Mangini had done little to incorporate much else into our offense, other than some trick plays, to help the offense grow. The reason I think Robo is coming on as of late is because with Hillis hurting we've had no other choice but to throw the ball to a WR once in a while. Had this been part of the plan all along Robo's insurgence may have happened in game 8 instead of taking so long. Maybe by now Mass might be making some contributions.

No creativity and fear of taking any other risk since Hillis was doing so well has gotten us in a situation where we can't do much of anything now since he's been hurt.

I will say that being forced to play 3 quarterbacks in rotation throughout the season is not an easy thing to overcome. It does address a high hurdle. We can all think of a million ways this is detrimental to an offenses growth. I can give him a bit of a flyer on this as should anyone. But it doesn't answer all of the problems with the issues that make this offensive so unproductive.

With a lot more talent he could win a lot more games. But then again, with a lot more money I could buy a lot more things. The proof is in what you do with what you got.


I tire of this. You're probably tired of reading it if you got this far.

In summary I'll say that Mangini has done a ton of good for this team in his philosophy of building a team. We now play tough, to the whistle and to the end. For these reasons I can see a very good team being built and would like to keep Mangini as head coach.

I'll say too that his in-game decisions are very questionable, verge on outsmarting himself all to often, are inconsistent in the approach and generally display an inexperience in being willing to attack the opponent in quest of a win. He is a close-to-the-vest type game manager which, with him, results in close losses. I'm afraid he will always be that guy, close losses.

So what will Holmgren do? He hired on to turn this team around. Keeping Mangini for 2010 did the team a lot of good if you're not looking at the record. Does he see Mangini as a head coach who can manage the team on game day and continue to improve in that area? Or does he think that even with a stellar OC that Mangini will still mismanage the clock and make curious decisions at important moments?

My crystal ball broke years ago.


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Eric Mangini is believed to be on the hot seat for three good reasons. First, team president Mike Holmgren inherited Mangini after the 2009 season. Second, the Browns have not had a successful year. Third, neither Holmgren nor owner Randy Lerner have taken a page from Dean Spanos’ playbook and declared that Mangini will be back.

So will he be?

The lockout factor could help, including the fact that Lerner has been buying out more contracts than the producers of the Spider-Man musical. And it would be awkward, to say the least, for Holmgren to fire Mangini, interview a bunch of candidates for the job, and then declare himself the best fit.

Other possibilities include Jon Gruden and, assuming the Millen stink has worn off, Marty Mornhinweg.

For now, it’s simply not clear what Holmgren will do — and the outcome likely depends in large part on the true quality of the relationship between the two men.

pft

I don't remember if PFT is permitted or not. But I posted this as it doesn't really create a rumor, rather only some well known facts, an observation or two and an opinion.


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Quote:

So I wanted to look at some Coachs who had longevity and how it turned out.



Bill Cowher - Had a winning record in his 1st year.

Bill Belichick - Deserved to be fired after putting up one winning season in 5 years. Went back to being a coordinator, learned and changed his ways serving under Parcells. Had a winning record in his 2nd year.

Tony Dungy - Had a winning record in Year 2 with the Bucs, had a winning record in Year 1 with the Colts.

Jeff Fisher - Took his team from a 1 win team in 1994 to a 7 win team in 1995 and was .500 or better for half a decade after that.

Mike Shanahan - Was fired after going 7-9 and 1-3 with the Raiders. Coordinated under George Seifert and the great 49ers team and learned while waiting for his next opportunity. With the Broncos, went .500 in his 1st year and had a winning record his 2nd year.

Do you see what these guys have in common? It's not longevity that made them what they are... They either improved/succeeded right away or were fired when they weren't ready, spent time as coordinators learning some more, and then came back and improved/succeeded right away.

Quote:

Moral of the story. Building a franchise takes time. We need to stop rebuilding. I would rather reach the end of the rope with Mangini than fire him prematurely.




No, the moral of the story is that regardless of whether the guy is capable of being a good head coach or not, he needs to be prepared for the opportunity. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all time but I'll tell you right now... if he went straight into another head coaching job after we fired him instead of learning more under Parcells, we wouldn't be talking about him in that light.

I don't think hiring a young Mangini straight off of a Jets firing helped Mangini learn. He's still clearly deficient in a few key areas and needs more time and seasoning. Putting him out there doing what he knows for a couple more years isn't going to change that. He needs to learn again and the best way to do that is on someone else's staff. He might become someone else's Belichick after learning for a few years as an assistant, but it's not going to happen if he keeps doing the same things for years here.


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Quote:

Moral of the story. Building a franchise takes time. We need to stop rebuilding. I would rather reach the end of the rope with Mangini than fire him prematurely.






26...Holmgren will decide where this rebuilding project goes next...

...Mangini may have already reached the end of his rope.

Whatever Holmgren decides is ok with me.




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Bill Cower: Are you kidding me? He took over a perennial playoff contender. The Steelers went 9-7, 9-7, and 7-9 in Noll's last 3 seasons. They weren't exactly dragging bottom.

Tony Dungy? His 2nd year (10-6) was Romeo Crennel's 10-6 season. He followed up 10-6 with 8-8. He also lost to the top team in his division in the playoffs. (Packers) He DID turn the psychology of that team around, and turned a team that had never won into one that won consistently (after falling back to 8-8 after the playoff season) so this is really your best evidence. As far as the Colts, a winning record with Peyton Manning isn't exactly rocket science ... so .... I'm not sure what your point there was. That was Manning's 5th season, and the Colts had gone 13-3, 10-6, and 6-10 in the previous 3 seasons.

Fisher took over a team that had parts. The Oilers went 11-5, 10-6, and 12-4 before dropping to 2-14 under Pardee. (with Fisher as interim coach after Pardee was fired) Fisher started out 7-9 ... then had 3 consequtive 8-8 seasons. Yeah ... convenient that .500 or better part ..... because there were tons of questions about whether or not he was the coach for that team. That was around the time when the team was in process of bolting Houston.

The Patriots went 10-6, 9-7, and 8-8 before Belichick's 5-11 season. Then he went on to do the best ever coaching job in league history. If you want to say that Mangini isn't on pace for that, I'll agree. Show me one other coach who is.

Shanahan inherited a Denver team that, again, wasn't horrible. They got Elway with a great deal of experience, and the team had gone 8-8, 9-7, and 7-9 in the 3 years prior to Shanahan taking over. He took them to an 8-8 record in their 1st year, and then 13-3. The biggest thing he did was find Terrell Davis, and give Elway a complimentary back to go along with Elway's passing.

Do you see what these guys had in common? They took over team that had struggled while not completely sucking ..... and added a few pieces to the puzzle. In most cases they had the QB in place and established. Many of them broke teams out of mediocrity rather than rebuilt them. There is a difference. We weren't a team laboring along, stuck between 7-9 and 9-7 records for years. We weren't a team with many of the key positions in place. I admire the time and thought you put into this, but you chased a false premise, that being that every coach faces exactly the same circumstances when taking over a new team. That simply is not the case.


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Some of these coaching changes were necessary via retirement or poor performance of the coach they replaced. Mike Singletary is one helluva motivational speaker and he is good for sound bites but he was terrible managing a game and team. Caldwell for Dungy. Mora for Holmgren.

Jim Mora wasn't ready, Josh McDaniels started out great then it was all down hill from there and he replaced a guy you laud but couldn't win without John Elway. Brad Childress completely lost the team. Wade Phillips lost the team.


Also, look at some of the organizations you have listed. Seattle, Washington, Oakland, Buffalo . . . Miami had three coaches, remember Nick Saban's hasty retreat? And you have teams that struggle to put talent on the field or have fickle owners or just plain struggled as of late. (Dallas)

I don't think it's the NFL per se, its teams having the right front office first. Something we lacked till now. Look at how well organized the winning teams are and how solid they are in the front office. Baltimore, Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England, Atlanta.

I agree, it seems head coaches have a short shelf life, but you have to ask yourself, are they, the coaches, setting themselves up to fail or were they set up to fail?

Nice post by the way. Nice to see it laid out that way.

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I actually like Mora. I may be a little biased though being from Atlanta.


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