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Mock Draft: Version 2.0

A top-flight early entry makes his way into the top 10. Wes Bunting
January 30, 2012


Our newest mock draft of the season…

1. Indianapolis Colts: Stanford QB Andrew Luck
With news coming out this past weekend that the Colts possibly have already made up their mind on QB Peyton Manning, Luck is looking more and more like a slam dunk.

GriffinICONRG3 moves up to number two.

2. -TRADE- Washington Redskins via St. Louis Rams: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III
RG3 is the kind of athletic quarterback that would be an ideal fit in the Washington offense. He can make plays outside the pocket, throw on the run and create second lives with his legs.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Southern Cal OT Matt Kalil
Quarterback Christian Ponder has shown flashes in year one, but he needs to stay healthy. Therefore, bringing in the top offensive tackle prospect in the draft who has a chance to mature into a Pro Bowl-caliber lineman seems like an easy selection at three.

4. Cleveland Browns: Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon
Quarterback is the biggest missing piece in Cleveland. However, if they can’t land RG3, getting one of the best offensive weapons in the draft is a nice consolation prize.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LSU CB Morris Claiborne
Tampa Bay has done a great job over the past two drafts improving the overall talent along its defensive line. Therefore, adding a playmaking corner who can capitalize on all the potential pressure is a must for this defense to take that next step.

6. –TRADE- St. Louis Rams via Washington Redskins: LSU DT Michael Brockers
As bad as the Rams need to add talent on the outside at receiver, they are also in need of some talent inside at DT. Brockers has the talent to develop into an All-Pro caliber lineman for the Rams and they can always add a receiver with their additional picks from the Redskins later in the draft.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alabama CB Dre' Kirkpatrick
Kirkpatrick adds a physical element to the Jaguars secondary. He’s got the ability to press off the line, make plays in zone and consistently tackle the ball carrier. Plus, he has the size to handle some of the bigger wideouts in the AFC South.

8. Carolina Panthers: Penn State DT Devon Still
The Panthers need a big body inside who can anchor on contact, push the pocket and find the football. Still isn’t a dynamic pass rusher and there are some other linemen on the board with a little more talent. But he has the size to fend off blocks inside and in my mind is one of the safer defensive tackle prospects in this year’s draft.

9. Miami Dolphins: Iowa OT Riley Reiff
Who knows how the Dolphins offensive line is going to look after free agency. They have some potential holes looming and bringing in a talent like Reiff who can play both inside and out gives the Fins another talented blocker who eventually should win in both the run and pass game.

10. Buffalo Bills: Stanford OT Jonathan Martin
Martin is a finesse tackle with good feet, natural range and the ability to mirror in space. He has some holes in his game, but offers the Bills a better athlete than anyone playing their tackle spots now.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Stanford OG David DeCastro
The Chiefs need to improve at a number of spots up front on their offensive line and DeCastro is by far the best prospect still on the board.

12. Seattle Seahawks: North Carolina DL Quinton Coples
The Seahawks have a real unique blend of athletes on the defensive side of the ball and because of that it makes me think Coples would be able to fit right in and fill a number of roles at both DT and DE. Plus, Pete Carroll seems like the kind of coach that could get the most out of Coples’s talent.



13. Arizona Cardinals: Southern Cal DE/OLB Nick Perry
Finding a long term complement for OLB Sam Acho this offseason is becoming more and more of a need for the Cardinals. Perry is a little tight, but has a great first step, is learning to use his hands better and can cleanly turn speed into power off the edge.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Wisconsin OL Peter Konz
Center and guard are both needs in Dallas and the idea of adding a potential blue-chip lineman who has the skill set to play either spot is simply too good to pass up even at 14.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Boston College ILB Luke Kuechly
A tackling machine with good size, natural instincts and knowledge to fend off blocks and find the football. Is the kind of talent the Eagles need inside to improve their struggling linebacking corps.

16. New York Jets: Alabama OLB Courtney Upshaw
Upshaw is a thick, powerful kid who can line up all over the Jets 34 front and get after the passer. He’s got the power to win consistently on contact vs. both the run and pass game.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Alabama RB Trent Richardson
Running backs always seem to fall on draft day and the Bengals get a steal at 17. Richardson has the ability to be the workhorse back in Cincinnati for the next 5-7 years and gives the Bengals another talented young skill position player.

RichardsonICONThe Bengals get a great value at pick 17.

18. San Diego Chargers: Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower
ILB Takeo Spikes will turn 36 next season and adding a physical body inside like Hightower will go a long way in improving their front seven. Hightower is a “plus” run defender who can be used as a blitzer inside or a pass rusher off the edge.

19. Chicago Bears: Ohio State OT Mike Adams
You have to think after the struggles the Bears have had at left tackle this season, drafting a guy like Adams who has the size and athleticism to handle premier NFL pass rushers is a must for them this off-season.

20. Tennessee Titans: South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore
With starting CB Cortland Finnegan potentially leaving via free agency, getting a tall, physical defensive back who displays a natural feel in zone and can go get the football could become a pressing need in Tennessee.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins
Jenkins is a bit undersized and he does have some character concerns. However, he’s a fluid kid with a “plus” initial burst and when motivated he’s about as tough as any corner in the draft to separate from.

22. Cleveland Browns: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill
The Browns missed on their quarterback in the top ten. However, they get a good athlete in Tannehill who can throw on the move, create with his legs and has as much upside as any prospect at the position outside of RG3.

23. Detroit Lions: Georgia OL Cordy Glenn
The Lions need to improve both their tackle and guard spots on the offensive line and Glenn has the talent to play either spot. He’s a gifted athlete for his size with natural movement skills and if he can ever put it all together he has the skill set to play at a high level in the NFL.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers Iowa State OG Kelechi Osemele
The Steelers have a ton of holes up front, but adding a talented body who can play some guard or right tackle like Osemele is a solid value at the end of round one.

25. Denver Broncos: Georgia TE Orson Charles
NFL teams are looking for mismatch tight ends who can play with their hand on the ground, split out into the slot and play in the backfield as well. The Broncos don’t have much in the terms of dynamic skill position guys and Charles can mature into a real safety blanket for QB Tim Tebow down the line.

26. Houston Texas: Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd
Floyd is a good value at this stage and would give the Texans a legit number two threat to take pressure off WR Andre Johnson in the pass game.

27. New England Patriots: Alabama SS Mark Barron
New England has had to piece together their secondary this year, but in terms of talent they could certainly use an upgrade at a number of spots. Barron is a smart, instinctive safety with good ball skills, can play in the box and be effective bumping/running with tight ends underneath.



28. Green Bay Packers: South Carolina OLB/DE Melvin Ingram
Finding another pass rusher off the edge is becoming more of pressing need for the Packers and Ingram has the ability to reach the QB in a number of ways off the edge.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Arizona State ILB Vontaze Burfict
If Burfict is going to end up going in round one, a team like the Ravens would be an ideal situation for him. He’s got a great role model to look up to in Ray Lewis and can be brought along slowly under him.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Baylor WR Kendall Wright
Wright might be the draft’s top vertical threat and has the ability to open up a lot of options for the 49ers offense down the field.

31. New York Giants: OLB Zach Brown: North Carolina (6-2, 230)
Brown’s a gifted run and hit athlete who adds some much needed range to the Giants linebacking core. He should be able to come in and make an impact on special teams early on as well.

32. New England Patriots: Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus
Age is creeping up on the Patriots at the defensive end position and Mercilus has the type of measurables to really move up draft boards with a solid post-season.

I think it's interesting that you and DinD continue to use the "not enough film on Flynn...defenses will figure it out once he plays more..." reason for not wanting Flynn ... yet you guys are fine with giving up draft picks to draft a guy who has zero NFL film on him being that he has never played a down in the NFL.

At least Deep watched a game and gave some reasons why he didn't want him.

If you are going to go with the higher ceiling on Griffin as your reason why ... that's fine. But we better be damn sure he's legit if we are giving up picks. Damn sure. Else the whole trade with Atlanta was for nothing.

If I had a choice between Flynn or Griffin, I would probably take Griffin too ... I just don't want to give up any picks for him. Get him at #4 ... best possible scenario.

And I can't believe I'm saying this because we live in the same camp ... no QB, means no chance. But your making it out like Griffin is a slam dunk. I'm not sure that's the case.

Flynn not only has no real NFL film ... he has no real college film either.

Matt Flynn, in his college career, threw a whopping 437 passes.

That's one year for many college QBs.

After that, he has moved on to an NFL career. He has thrown 132 NFL passes, 9 TD and 5 INT.

So his combined NFL and college career consists of 569 passes.

That's it.

RG3 has a great deal of college film. Griffin has thrown almost twice that many passes in just gis college career. (1192 passes) He has played against a lot more teams. He has seen a great deal more game action. He has thrown many different passes. He has faced different situations. he has played with different players. He has played a wide variety of competition. he has been the QB who has helped turn the Baylor program around. He has the arm, accuracy, mobility, and intelligence that teams look for in a QB.

In short, he has all of the things that Flynn did not have coming out of college ..... and Flynn has barely added to his resume as a pro. That's not his fault. He has played behind a great, and durable QB. However, that fact should not artificially inflate his value either.

There's no way to perfectly predict who will succeed and who will fail ..... but there is a pretty good indicator called the 26/27/60 rule. It states that a QB should have at least 26 starts, a 27 score on the Wonderlik, and at least a 60% completion rate in college. Meeting these 3 criteria tremendously increases that QB's chances of success.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html

If we accept that RG3, with his double degrees and his accepted level of intelligence will blow away a 26 type score on the Wonderlik, then he will reach, and greatly surpass all 3 criteria.

Just as a comparison, Colt McCoy met the starts and completion percent. he fell just short on the Wonderlik score.

Anyway ...... I don't see any track record on Flynn, and guys with no track record worry me ..... especially at the QB position.

Quote:

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RG3 has a great deal of college film

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What does that have to do with projecting what he will be at the next level?

Did he play in a pro style offense? No.

He most definitely never read a pro defense.

So basically every part of his game at this level is projection.
We wish that we could draw a conclusion based on his College play, but wishing doesn't make it so.

Should we draw a conclusion based on what Cam Newton was able to do as a rookie? I should hope that has nothing to do with our evaluation of Griffin.

I just don't think his selection is as much of a foregone conclusion as nearly everyone has us taking him either at 4 or by trading up.
I'm pretty confident that we will hedge our bets at the position, but I don't think that there is only one absolute direction we can take in filling that need and if we back ourselves into that corner we might just come up with BQ all over again.

I've been following the draft longer then it's been televised and it never fails to amazes me how high of a pedestal some prospects are put on every year ... as if anyone could ever be 100% sure of anyone coming into the League especially at the QB position.

Imo Griffin's private workouts will be more important to a team that selects him then any of his said College film.

He will be asked to do things he never had to do at College and I hear that he is pretty bright, so I can speculate that he probably has a private Coach to help him prepare for those workouts not unlike Tim Tebow did and many others.

Quote:

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There's no way to perfectly predict who will succeed and who will fail ..... but there is a pretty good indicator called the 26/27/60 rule. It states that a QB should have at least 26 starts, a 27 score on the Wonderlik, and at least a 60% completion rate in college. Meeting these 3 criteria tremendously increases that QB's chances of success.

Just as a comparison, Colt McCoy met the starts and completion percent. he fell just short on the Wonderlik score.

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The 26-27-60 rule ???....

So, meeting these 3 criteria tremendously increases a qb's chances of success?

SAYS WHO?

WHO made that stupid rule?

Some say, rules are made to be broken..or in this case this one should be "ignored"...especially the wonderlic score.

Terry Bradshaw blew the wonderlic standard...blew chunks...scored a 15.

...so did Dan Marino, Randall Cunningham, Jim Kelly (all scored 15) and Donovan McNabb had a 14 on his wonderlic.

Colt McCoy had a 25..Tim Tebow a 22..Mark Sanchez had a 28..Jay Cutler a 26..Carson Palmer 26..Ben Roethlisberger had a 25.

I find this one very funny, Peyton Manning barely qualified for the 26,27,60 rule, scoring a 28 on the wonderlic.

The wonderlic might tell us "something" about a qb's potential...but looking at those qbs with 15 or less on the wonderlic...one thing is clear...the 26,27,60 rule can be tossed in the trash.

I dont think Tannehill has to worry about the wonderlic, kid is working towards a career as a surgeon after football.

No college player has ever read an NFL defense, so that's irrelevant.

Every player coming from college is drafted based on projection. That's why so many never make it. It's a huge jump to make, even for the absolutely best players.

I liked your 2.0 draft Mourn. Blackmon @ 4 and Tannehill @ 22. Sounds perfect. As much as I like RG3 this might be better. RG3 seems a little fragile and weak but there is nothing bad you can say about his arm and speed.

With Blackmon, a new RT and a coach that hopefully learns some clock management and play calling we will improve alot.

Let's attempt to keep this thread about the draft and not mudslinging against other posters or turning this into yet another Colt McCoy thread.

I talked about this a while back..I kind of like this idea and adding a second this year and a 3rd in 2013. Adding Trent Richardson and Kendall Wright plus having two 2nd round picks this year sounds very tempting.

Mock

I think a lot of those 8-8 and 9-7 type teams are thinking, hey we are 1 GREAT player away from contending. Well if you want that 1 Great player, you have to go up and get him. Unless we get a really good offer, we will take whomever we see as that guy and be happy doing it but I think there will be several teams that are looking to move up on draft day.

If you want to see a real auction house environment on draft day let Blackmon run a sub 4.5 forty.

That mock draft has us dropping from #4 to #14 for a 2nd this year and a 3rd next year. I don't make that trade. I definitely want more in return. To drop that far I want their next year's number 1.

I think I take that trade down if and only if RGIII, luck, and Blackmon are gone.

Do we get Abe Elam again?

I'd make the trade even if Blackmon is there. As much as I like Blackmon, he is sort of the same as Greg Little, who I think is going to get better and be a fine player. I'd like a little more speed at the position. I'd take Wright at 14. Most drafts show us getting him at 22, but something tells me he is a teens player. If we get snookered and lose Wright, Sanu at 22 is realistic.

As for compensation, I'd want a 2nd next year, not a 3rd. A first is unrealistic.

jc

I noticed in many mocks lately that the Broncos 6th rounder is "owned" by the Eagles who got that pick in another conditional trade...that means the Broncos are "due" to pay 2x6ths but only own 1 (they do have 2x5ths)...I think we could get lucky here and land their 5th for Quinn this draft, take a look at this:

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Broncos.htm

it says the 2012 pick owned to us was a conditional 3rd to 6th and our trade was made before the Eagles trade....anybody knows how this plays out? When is the official draft order released anyway?

nice catch. hope we get the 5th and Heckert can work his magic.

Looks like we will have 13 draft picks, 4 of them comp picks (believed to be 2x6th, 2x7th)

Only questions remaining are:

1. do we get a 5th or 6th from DEN? My guess is we get their 5th

2. do we have to give up our 6th or 7th to Minny for Mitchell? Looks like it's our 6th

If it plays out like this we have 8 (tradeable) picks in the top 5 rounds (2x1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2x4th, 2x5th) and 5 very late "flyer" picks (200 overall+)

Imho this draft isn't very strong at the top...it's better at the VERY top than say the BE draft, which was weak all around, but still...after the top 10-15 guys it's just about scheme preference and there's a big "group" of guys who have 2nd/3rd round value imho...I would really look to trade #22 or #37 for (a) high future pick(s) and trade back into the 40-75 range OR burn those tradeable picks for our QB of the future

Even if we cut 3 of our 5 late picks, we're still looking at adding 10 rooks to an already VERY young roster which means at some point it becomes a numbers game come cut day. The more I think about it...it makes really sense to burn 2 of our top picks (+ maybe a 4th/5th) for RG3 and then either go BPA with the other or trade for future value since I'm confident we get decent value grabs with the multiple mid rounders and some bottom of the roster developmental guys (with 1 dimensional short term value) with our late rounders

lots of late picks for sure..

makes me think we trade a few of our 4th and 5th round picks to jump back into the 3rd round to snag a potential starter.

Heckert has been doing some dealing in the mid rounds as of late.

Everything i can find says that the Denver - Philly trade is an undisclosed 2013 pick so i would assume we still get Denver's 6th rnd pick.

The Bunkley trade? Yes...but they also traded fro LB Mays in 2010, look here again:

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Broncos.htm

You might be right then, the site i went to didn't list that trade.

jc

Just a follow up to further prove my suspicion that this draft doesn't offer many instant starters and isn't very strong at the top:

Here's PFW's rankings...of course it's not the bible and I disagree with lots of grades but generally speaking it shows a lack of top talent:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/prospects/rankings/?position=

- only 1 top 10 grade

- only 18 1st round grades (21 including 1-2 grades)

- 22-29 2nd round grades (22 clear 2nd round grades + 7 1-2 or 2-3)

- 42-61 3rd round grades

- 37-64 4th round grades

- 48-76 5th round grades

In terms of "value" it's not the best draft to own 3 top 40 picks reinforcing my point that we best either move up and get an elite player or trade 1 of the top picks for later picks and future picks...this draft won't have as many day 1 starters as last year imho, so don't expect another Taylor-Sheard like impact from this class for next season...it's filled with fringe, developmental NFL talent that will take time