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So for those of you who remember, I took on the challenge of live drafting for the Browns throughout the draft. Who I would take vs. who the Browns actually took. And the thread is on page 2 currently of this forum.
This wasn't a hindsight exercise. It was live on all three days.
My Real-Time Draft
Round 1
#4 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
#22 Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
Round 2
#37 -Cordy Glenn OT Georgia
Round 3
#87 Lamar Miller RB Miami
Round 4
#100 Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
#118 Jared Crick DT/DE Nebraska
#120 George Iloka FS Boise State
Round 5
#139 Marvin McNutt WR Iowa
#160 Cam Johnson DE Virginia
Round 6
#204 Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas
#205 Rishard Matthews WR Nevada
Round 7
#211 Alfanso Dennard, CB Nebraska
#245 Brad Smelley, FB Alabama
#247 Jeff Demps, RB/KR/PR
The Browns 2012 Draft
1 (3) Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
1 (22) Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
2 (37) Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
3 (87) John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati
4 (100) Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami
4 (120) James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada
5 (160) Ryan Miller, G, Colorado
6 (204) Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas
6 (205) Billy Winn, DL, Boise State
7 (245) Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona
7 (247) Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama
A year has gone by....
Which draft wins?
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/Heldawg/rgiii2.jpg)
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Legend
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Legend
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I will say I like you draft a lot.
However if everyone STILL gets fired and we still bring in Chud, then is Tannehill a fit anymore?
It's only a complete success if we do well enough that people keep their jobs...
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Dawg Talker
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My brain is toast at the office so let me help peeps out with some statistical waypoints...
4 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M- 3300 yrd, 58 %, 12 TD, 13 INT
#22 Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois- 15 tackles, 6 sacks
Round 2
#37 -Cordy Glenn OT Georgia- No stats but by all accounts, a pretty good season for Glenn
Round 3
#87 Lamar Miller RB Miami- 250 yards, 4.9 average, 1 TD
Round 4
#100 Brandon Boykin CB Georgia- 24 tackles, 5 PD, 1 sack. Started 4 games
#118 Jared Crick DT/DE Nebraska- 13 tackles
#120 George Iloka FS Boise State- No stats
Round 5
#139 Marvin McNutt WR Iowa- No stats
#160 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- No stats
Round 6
#204 Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas- IR as we know
#205 Rishard Matthews WR Nevada- 11 catches, 151 yards
Round 7
#211 Alfanso Dennard, CB Nebraska- 34 tackles, 7 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD
#245 Brad Smelley, FB Alabama- Browns pick.
#247 Jeff Demps, RB/KR/PR- No stats
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Legend
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Legend
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It almost doesn't look like you did much better really..
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Legend
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Legend
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Let's do it this way....
Your QB
#4 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M- 3300 yrd, 58 %, 12 TD, 13 INT
Our QB
1 (22) Bandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State - 3385 yrd, 57.5 % 14 TD, 17 INT
Your DE
#22 Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois- 15 tackles, 6 sacks
Our DT
3 (87) John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati - 34 tackes, 3 sacks
Your OT
#37 -Cordy Glenn OT Georgia- No stats but by all accounts, a pretty good season for Glenn
Our OT
2 (37) Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California - Could make pretty much the same statement, no stats but a good year at RT.. Glenn played LT
Your RB
#87 Lamar Miller RB Miami- 250 yards, 4.9 average, 1 TD, 45 yards receiving
Our RB
1 (3) Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - 950 yards, 3.6 average, 11 TDs, 367 yards receiving, 1 TD
Your CB
#100 Brandon Boykin CB Georgia- 24 tackles, 5 PD, 1 sack. Started 4 games
Our CB
7 (245) Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona - 17 tackles, 1 PD
Your DT
#118 Jared Crick DT/DE Nebraska- 13 tackles
Our DT
6 (205) Billy Winn, DL, Boise State - 26 tackles, 1 sack
Your OLB
#204 Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas- IR as we know
Our OLB
6 (204) Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas - same
Your WR
#205 Rishard Matthews WR Nevada- 11 catches, 151 yards
Our WR
4 (100) Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami - 18 catches, 298 yards, 2 TDs
Your FB/TE
#245 Brad Smelley, FB Alabama- Browns pick.
Our FB/TE
7 (247) Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama - same
Picks for which there is no straight up comparison
#211 Alfanso Dennard, CB Nebraska- 34 tackles, 7 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD
4 (120) James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada- 36 tackles
#247 Jeff Demps, RB/KR/PR- No stats
5 (160) Ryan Miller, G, Colorado - played in 8 games, no starts
Picks given up
#120 George Iloka FS Boise State- No stats
#139 Marvin McNutt WR Iowa- No stats
#160 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- No stats
Obviously this doesn't take into account the value of where a player was drafted just straight up position by position, it also doesn't take into account what situation (other team) the guy played for.
I guess my conclusion would be that Heckert wins but not by much. I'd really like to have one of your CBs though.
yebat' Putin
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Legend
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Legend
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Quote:
#4 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M- 3300 yrd, 58 %, 12 TD, 13 INT
1 (22) Bandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State - 3385 yrd, 57.5 % 14 TD, 17 INT
wash
#22 Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois- 15 tackles, 6 sacks
3 (87) John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati - 34 tackes, 3 sacks
Heldawg by a lot
#37 -Cordy Glenn OT Georgia- No stats but by all accounts, a pretty good season for Glenn
2 (37) Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California - Could make pretty much the same statement, no stats but a good year at RT.. Glenn played LT
Heldawg
#87 Lamar Miller RB Miami- 250 yards, 4.9 average, 1 TD, 45 yards receiving
1 (3) Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - 950 yards, 3.6 average, 11 TDs, 367 yards receiving, 1 TD
Heckert by a lot
#100 Brandon Boykin CB Georgia- 24 tackles, 5 PD, 1 sack. Started 4 games
7 (245) Trevin Wade, CB, Arizona - 17 tackles, 1 PD
Heldawg by a lot
#118 Jared Crick DT/DE Nebraska- 13 tackles
6 (205) Billy Winn, DL, Boise State - 26 tackles, 1 sack
Heckert by a lot
#204 Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas- IR as we know
Our OLB
6 (204) Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas - same
wash
#205 Rishard Matthews WR Nevada- 11 catches, 151 yards
4 (100) Travis Benjamin, WR, Miami - 18 catches, 298 yards, 2 TDs
Heckert
#245 Brad Smelley, FB Alabama- Browns pick.
7 (247) Brad Smelley, FB-TE, Alabama - same
wash
Picks for which there is no straight up comparison
#211 Alfonso Dennard, CB Nebraska- 34 tackles, 7 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD
4 (120) James-Michael Johnson, LB, Nevada- 36 tackles
Heldawg
#247 Jeff Demps, RB/KR/PR- No stats
5 (160) Ryan Miller, G, Colorado - played in 8 games, no starts
wash
Picks given up
#120 George Iloka FS Boise State- No stats
#139 Marvin McNutt WR Iowa- No stats
#160 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- No stats
Heldawg
I guess my conclusion would be that Heckert wins but not by much. I'd really like to have one of your CBs though.
Giving +1 to one guy for a win and +2 for a win "by a lot", I have Heldawg +2 here under my opinion.
I don't think either QB is the answer.
Mercilus had six sacks as a backup learning a new position. I thought he was better suited for 4-3 RDE so I think his production would have been better with us or another 4-3 team than it was in Houston.
I like Schwartz, but Glenn was moving people off the screen last year, and he's more athletic and able to continue his blocks downfield. Schwartz is a good player, but Glenn will be a Pro Bowler... even playing in Buffalo.
Even though I have harped on Richardson's dismal YPC average, I think it doesn't quite tell the whole story just via the eye test. Richardson is a better player than Miller.
Boykin is a terrific player.
Billy Winn had a very nice rookie year and was a good fit for his role in the defense that drafted him.
Benjamin started really coming on at the end of the year. I like him.
While I gave the Dennard pick to Heldawg, the guy had just punched a cop and was responsible for starting a couple fights in college on the field. He's a good player though and would probably be a starter for us.
I think Demps and Miller are both wasted picks.
I gave Heldawg a win for not trading and taking a shot on three more guys. Cam Johnson is another guy who is a 4-3 DE only, even moreso than Mercilus, who was taken by a 3-4 team. He's talented but I've read is not a great effort guy. I liked what i saw from him, though... which was a game vs. Miami and his Senior Bowl stuff.
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I will give Heldawg credit for one other thing.. he was right on point with the positions we needed to fill, though Heckert had a slightly different order to fill them..
I think Heckert did a good job of securing out DL for a long time (at least under the 4-3 that we were running).. and he did it at the expense of the secondary.. but you can't have everything in a year.
Overall I think both drafts were pretty good... would be neat to bring this back up 2 or 3 years from now..
yebat' Putin
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I give Held a lot of credit, and this is a good example that in a way backs my belief that picking/evaluating players is over rated.
I know Held. A good solid fan, a smart guy, but not someone who holds a vast knowledge of the prospects. He has very limited information compared to a GM.
I think where GM's make their mistake is they get bogged down in the information and end up falling in love with a player or starts thinking he can start switching guys around and starts projecting this and that.
Held on the other hand went by what he saw... A limited number of looks at various players by watching games, etc, maybe a draft guide or two, and reviewing scouting sites for a few hours here and there. He didn't interview players, see them in their underware, or anything else.
He made common sense picks, a lesson all GM's should heed.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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Legend
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i agree with those assertions.
also, i hate that GMs (and scouts) go and see some players live and others on film. live and film play completely differently.
I think you should have some scouts that ONLY go and see people play live and some that ONLY watch film. mixing the two is a dangerous combination and leads to biases IMO.
#gmstrong
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Quote:
i agree with those assertions.
also, i hate that GMs (and scouts) go and see some players live and others on film. live and film play completely differently.
I think you should have some scouts that ONLY go and see people play live and some that ONLY watch film. mixing the two is a dangerous combination and leads to biases IMO.
That's a pretty good idea. I am going to steal that thought, that in time I will take credit for as my own idea. 
I can see how things might differ. 
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Legend
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Legend
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feel free to steal it. i'll always know it was mine first 
#gmstrong
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I think it's still too hard to tell.
We just don't know enough about both of our first round picks, and both of Tom's.
We think T-Rich is going to be awesome, but we need to see it first. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, because he played banged up most of the year. Come September, we need him healthy, and productive. That's only fair out of the #3 pick. A full training camp should help, so should a few preseason carries. If he's still running into 2 yard runs all the time, or is hurt again next year, count me in as worried about it.
With Weeden, he gets a little bit less of the benefit of the doubt. He played in a bad offense, poorly coached. He has 2 very good offensive minds helping him now, as well as 2 good playcallers. Some have made the argument that because he's 29 he can't develop any more. Maybe not physically, but scheme wise, recognition wise, why can't he? It's not like he's 80 and his mind is going. I think at this point next year we can make a very good assessment on him.
Same goes with your guys, Tannehill and Mercilius. I definitely need to see more, especially with Mercilius who did not play very much.
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Hall of Famer
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OP
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Quote:
I give Held a lot of credit, and this is a good example that in a way backs my belief that picking/evaluating players is over rated.
I know Held. A good solid fan, a smart guy, but not someone who holds a vast knowledge of the prospects. He has very limited information compared to a GM.
I think where GM's make their mistake is they get bogged down in the information and end up falling in love with a player or starts thinking he can start switching guys around and starts projecting this and that.
Held on the other hand went by what he saw... A limited number of looks at various players by watching games, etc, maybe a draft guide or two, and reviewing scouting sites for a few hours here and there. He didn't interview players, see them in their underware, or anything else.
He made common sense picks, a lesson all GM's should heed.
Absolutely.
I'm simply a fan of football and have been solidly for the last 30 years. While there are athletes that endear themselves to me with their passion for the game or their excellence on the field, I watch it much more from a strategic perspective.
Later in my childhood I took to learning chess. I've read probably a half dozen books on it and have become over the years a pretty decent player. And that's probably the best way to describe how I view the game.
Couple that with definitely too much time watching it, with some research going in...and I come to my own conclusions.
I will say that I use GBN Report more than any other service and I have used them for more than a decade. What I typically do is review their future mock prediction and make notes on games to watch the upcoming season. The 2014 mock is not up yet but will be later in the year.
From there I check it out...and check out youtube highlights of prospects and develop a feel for guys.
And then when I'm watching I'll focus on those players every so often apart from the football and see what they're up to.
And quite often another player jumps off the TV and makes their presence known. That was the case with Jason Pierre-Paul a few years ago. They had a really good pass rusher with big stats the previous year, George Selvie. So I DVR'd a game of theirs and ended up very impressed with JPP.
Anyway I could go on and on...but it's how I ended up keying on guys like Lavonte David last year.
But yeah I'm just a fan like everyone else. I probably watch the game a little differently than most. So sometimes I'll have out of consensus viewpoints...and I don't mind when I do.
The biggest one for me is Devin Taylor, DE Gamecocks being a low 3rd rounder right now. His teammate Jadevon Clowney is a straight megabeast the likes of we haven't seen since maybe Julius Peppers or Jevon Kearse (I actually think he's freaky-er than both those guys though.) But Taylor pops too from play to play.
Maybe he's too inconsistent but he's got elite tools. I would be surprised if he isn't a late first rounder by the time all is said and done.
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Legend
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Quote:
The biggest one for me is Devin Taylor, DE Gamecocks being a low 3rd rounder right now.
I agree. I think he's the most-underrated-by-the-internet guy right now.
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If I were grading the two drafts...knowing what I know today...I'd probably call it a push. I know I'd be real comfortable with the personnel on the defensive side of the ball, especially at CB. And I love Cordy Glenn. I couldn't take my man Lavonte David with Glenn still on board simply because of positional value and our absolute vacuum at RT. Honestly I would have found a way to jump back into the second round and take David later.
But almost all of Heckert's pick grew on me. Schwartz, Hughes, Benjamin, Winn all played much better than I expected. I'll add Weeden to that list as well.
The only one that really didn't was Richardson, but I was really low on him going into the draft compared to most people anyways. He played just like I expected him to play this past year.
But I'll give Heckert credit. I think a year later that he did a fine job and I'd give his draft overall a solid B+.
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Legend
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We will have to play chess some day. I love the game. I am not as accomplished as some, but I can usually match up pretty well with accomplished players. I can at least stretch them and keep them thinking defense late in the match
It's the best board game ever.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Next time we're in Cleveland for a game then! It is a great game. One that I'm going to teach my daughter early.
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Rookie
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Quote:
It almost doesn't look like you did much better really..
LOL 
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Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Heldawg vs. Heckert
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