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Had a post about this in the predict the Browns record thread, so here is one for the whole league. http://www.grantland.com/story...-best-nfl-statsCliffs: The theory is this- Points For ^ 2.37 / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37) = Expected win percentage So, based on last years point differentials and the table which shows the average regression to the mean for teams that over/underperformed their win totals here are the very, very rough, devoid of any other context predictions for this year: AFCE Patriots 12-4 Dolphins 7-9 Bills 6-10 Jets 5-11 AFCN Bengals 10-6 Ravens 9-7 Steelers 9-7 Browns 7-9 AFCS Texans 10-6 Colts 8-8 Titans 4-12 Jaguars 4-12 AFCW Broncos 12-4 Chargers 9-7 Raiders 4-12 Chiefs 2-14 NFCE Giants 11-5 Redskins 9-7 Cowboys 7-9 Eagles 4-12 NFCN Bears 11-5 Packers 10-6 Vikings 8-8 Detroit 6-10 NFCS Falcons 11-5 Saints 9-7 Buccaneers 8-8 Panthers 8-8 NFCW Seahawks 13-3 Niners 11-5 Rams 7-9 Cardinals 5-11 The biggest wild card will probably be the Colts, who were one of the luckiest teams in history last year regarding win total.
Proud fan of the Pulaski Academy football strategy.
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Thanks for taking the time to extrapolate the data. It actually looks roughly like what I would expect to see save a handful of teams.
The teams that I think are more than 2 wins off +/-
Chiefs: They do have talent. Now they have a competent level QB and Coach. I actually think they're a .500 team this year.
Bears: I think they'll probably be a .500 or under team. Lovie gone, offensive guy, Trestman in. Urlacher retired. Age catching up with them. OL still bad. Cutler makes or breaks them...I think he breaks them.
I couldn't find any others where I'd feel comfortable betting the swing is more than 2 wins +/-.
Steelers tempt me...I'd be selling that stock if it was me but I'm not confident enough to bet they'd be 6-10 or worse.
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Legend
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I think that both the Chefs and Bears will be 7-8 win teams this year. The Chefs have the advantage of playing the Raiders twice this year, and that should be a pair of wins. I am not sold on Smith being a difference maker at all. He is far better than Quinn, who KC started last year, but how much better is still open to debate. He has been at his best when the offense and reads have been simplified for him. The WCO is not the simplest offense. He does have a great RB to hand off to though. That will help him immensely.Bowe will probably be the best WR Smith has played with as well. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts. The Bears are such an up and down team that it's ridiculous. The past 6 years they have gone 10-6, 8-8.11-5, 7-9, 9-7, and 7-9. I think that the pendulum swings down this year. I'm not sold on Trestman as an NFL Head Coach. Lotta question marks on that team. They would scare me as a bet. It is hard to project though, until we see teams hit another team at least once or twice. That said, I really don't see the Bengals reaching 10 wins. I think that the Steelers might.I don't see the Jags or Raiders winning more than 2 or 3 games each. The Colts are a really hard team to project. They lost their inspirational leader in Arians, but got back the reason for the inspiration. They got a lot of lucky/fortunate plays to win games last year that have a way of evening out. They could very well be a better team this year and win only 6 or 7 games. I think that we will win somewhere between 6-9 games. I'll be more specific after training camp.  lol
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Good stuff. I know this doesn't take in all factors, but this hits close to my feeling we will win 9 games. My feeling is Shurmer was worth 2 extra losses. If Chud can prove to be better than Shurmer, we gain the 2 games to the predicted 7. 
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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Quote:
If Chud can prove to be better than Shurmer...
I'd like to see the over/under on that! It should be interesting to see how Pat will work out with Kelly in Philadelphia this coming season.
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
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Rookie
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i think 10-6 is a real possibility this year. i think PAT held this team back so much in the past 2 years, along with MIKE. those two dudes were STEALING from randy and the browns. i love our coaching staff. chud is a cleveland guy, he gets it. norv is one of, if not the best, OC in the NFL. horton is young and hungry. reminds me of mike tomlin in background and demeanor. and tabor is one of the best in the biz with special teams. add in the FA's (kruger, bryant, bess, campbell, hoyer, groves) and draft picks (mingo, mcfadden) and this team has a chance to make a real splash. 10-6 is REAL fellas!!!!!!!!!
here's to you here's to me, browns fans we'll always be. but if by chance we should disagree, to heck with you and here's to me!
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Legend
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7-9 I view as our Worst Case Scenario. Not the Realistic prediction.
There always is the X factor of New O n New D how soon will we gel into it. That is where I see most of the Worst n Best case Scenarios revolving around.
JMHO
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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The Browns at 7-9 won't make everyone happy. I doubt it makes anyone happy, but it would demonstrate progress.
But to me it's about how they win and how they lose. Close loss to a great team probably equates to decisive win over a respectable team. "PROBABLY"
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Legend
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Quote:
The Browns at 7-9 won't make everyone happy. I doubt it makes anyone happy, but it would demonstrate progress.
But to me it's about how they win and how they lose. Close loss to a great team probably equates to decisive win over a respectable team. "PROBABLY"
Like when we won decisively over very good New Orleans and New England teams a few years ago? (and I am not trying to offend, but I see this as a major fallacy fans hold dear)
Win games. That's what matters. Win games, make the playoffs, and play for the whole ball of wax. Then follow that up by winning the next year. Everything else is lip service.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Dawg Talker
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7-9 is a good year for us, and if we actually went 7-9, people would be calling for banner's head. but seriously, 7-9 is an improvement!!
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I know its a crap record in comparison to other teams but I'd taki it
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I had Surmy at 3 losses IMO (conservative) so I see us at 10, maybe more if offense roars, like a pair? This was quite an interesting extrapolation. Thanx fer the post. Seemed to be about right for a number of teams to me. 
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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Agreed, win games. Early. Often. Regularly. But underneath it is what has ground my corn since the Return: 1) win at home — hardly our friendliest venue for wins, and it is not al fans; 2) beat the teams you are supposed to — we had a number of games where we they didn't win as much as we lost it, and did so in a horribly creative variety of ways; and, 3)surprise a few better than you — the "Any Given Sunday" principal. The last one has two edges unfortunately. True, your team can beat any other AGS, but the opposite is also true: You can get beaten by anyone, and we seem to have let that happen too often for a parade of reasons IMO. Good stuff for us please. 
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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Legend
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Quote:
The Browns at 7-9 won't make everyone happy. I doubt it makes anyone happy, but it would demonstrate progress.
But to me it's about how they win and how they lose. Close loss to a great team probably equates to decisive win over a respectable team. "PROBABLY"
7-9 won't make me "happy" because it won't get us into the playoffs and that's really the end game, get to the playoffs and compete with the big boys...... but depending on how it occurs it could make me "content" that we are headed in the right direction.
yebat' Putin
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Quote:
Like when we won decisively over very good New Orleans and New England teams a few years ago? (and I am not trying to offend, but I see this as a major fallacy fans hold dear)
Win games. That's what matters. Win games, make the playoffs, and play for the whole ball of wax. Then follow that up by winning the next year. Everything else is lip service.
Exactly!
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Legend
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Quote:
Quote:
The Browns at 7-9 won't make everyone happy. I doubt it makes anyone happy, but it would demonstrate progress.
But to me it's about how they win and how they lose. Close loss to a great team probably equates to decisive win over a respectable team. "PROBABLY"
Like when we won decisively over very good New Orleans and New England teams a few years ago? (and I am not trying to offend, but I see this as a major fallacy fans hold dear)
Win games. That's what matters. Win games, make the playoffs, and play for the whole ball of wax. Then follow that up by winning the next year. Everything else is lip service.
Thus the word "PROBABLY" there are no certains.. Just best guesses.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Legend
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You play to win the game!  
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Legend
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Quote:
You play to win the game!
Funny but true
I don't want close losses or to be happy with 7-9
I want at the very least a winning record and really want to be in the playoff hunt late in the season!
We fans deserve a winner
<><
#gmstrong
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WAY to early ... 
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
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All Pro
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7-9 can easily turn into 9-7 with the new attack offense, at any rate the over 5.5 wins is a great bet.
GO BROWNS!
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All I'll say is this: If the math mattered in any way at all, they wouldn't play the games.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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256 wins, vs 256 losses. Just checking. The AFC is 118 and 138... While the NFC is 138 and 118. The computers don't like the AFC. I have an idea. How many times does the Browns offense score 4 td's in a game? and How do they beat the Dolphins in week 1? 
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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2nd String
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Unfortunately, both Norv and Chud are good at racking up Pythagorean wins, but not very good at racking up actual wins. First we have this gem of an excerpt: " As we chronicled in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, Norv is perhaps the least fortunate head coach in NFL history, as his teams have consistently underperformed their Pythagorean win projections. His career record is 114-122-1, while his by-season cumulative Pythagorean record is 124.6-112.4. Over fifteen seasons of coach, that's underachieving by about two-thirds of a win each year. Only once in his career, when the 2009 Chargers went 13-3 with 11.3 Pythagorean wins, did his team overachieve their Pythagorean record by more than one win. By way of comparison, six teams did that in 2012." http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2013/norv-turner-all-starsThen we have the fact that since Chud became the Carolina offensive coordinator, their teams have won less games than their Pythagorean win total suggested. 2011: Pythagorean Record: 9-7 Actual Record: 6-10 2012: Pythagorean Record: 8-8 Actual Record: 7-9 And then there's stats like Cam Newton being 2-14 in fourth-quarter comeback drives and 2-15 in game-winning drives opportunities in his two years in the league. Or Rivers not having a fourth-quarter comeback or game-winning drive since the first game of the 2011 season. Both of these coaches have been extreme underachievers in the past. Lots of close games and lots of close losses. Their teams and units can put up points, but they don't come through in the clutch and usually make silly mistakes. I can only hope for Browns fans that you aren't subject to the headbutts, fumbled snaps, missed field goals, blocked punts, and other ridiculous ways of losing that I've been subjected to as a Charger fan... But either way, a lot of close losses for this team wouldn't surprise me at all and that's what I'm personally projecting. 8-8 and lots of close losses, with a slow start and a strong finish.
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Quote:
I can only hope for Browns fans that you aren't subject to the headbutts, fumbled snaps, missed field goals, blocked punts, and other ridiculous ways of losing that I've been subjected to as a Charger fan...
Hey Cleveland wrote the book on ridiculous ways of losing. All other teams just plagerised it. If there's a ridiculous way of losing, Cleveland not only did it, they did it first and in more devastating fashion.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Legend
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Quote:
I can only hope for Browns fans that you aren't subject to the headbutts, fumbled snaps, missed field goals, blocked punts, and other ridiculous ways of losing that I've been subjected to as a Charger fan...
If we didn't, we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves.
I know the chargers have had many infamous losses, the most prominent which comes to mind is vs ed hochuly and the donks. We lost a game because a guy took off his helmet after he thought the game was over, only to give the chiefs an untimed down to kick a chipshot field goal after an offensive lineman carried a fumble 20 yards downfield. We lost a game because the pro bowl longsnapper snapped the go-ahead field goal off the shin of the guard. I still don't really understand how that happened. We lost an AFC championship game when our running back fumbled basically untouched at the one yard line late in the fourth quarter.
I'm pretty sure our players slap a sign with Murphy's Law written on it before taking the field.
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3 1/2 months till the season begins  It's way, way, way to early to call.
I AM ALWAYS RIGHT... except when I am wrong.
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Quote:
I think that both the Chefs . . . The Chefs have the
Great googly moogly.
Proud fan of the Pulaski Academy football strategy.
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That's my thing.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Hall of Famer
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Quote:
I can only hope for Browns fans that you aren't subject to the headbutts, fumbled snaps, missed field goals, blocked punts, and other ridiculous ways of losing that I've been subjected to as a Charger fan...
Since our return, we have actually lost two games where we were ahead when the clock ran out in the 4th quarter.
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
#gmstrong
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Legend
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Legend
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Quote:
Unfortunately, both Norv and Chud are good at racking up Pythagorean wins, but not very good at racking up actual wins.
First we have this gem of an excerpt:
"As we chronicled in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, Norv is perhaps the least fortunate head coach in NFL history, as his teams have consistently underperformed their Pythagorean win projections. His career record is 114-122-1, while his by-season cumulative Pythagorean record is 124.6-112.4. Over fifteen seasons of coach, that's underachieving by about two-thirds of a win each year. Only once in his career, when the 2009 Chargers went 13-3 with 11.3 Pythagorean wins, did his team overachieve their Pythagorean record by more than one win. By way of comparison, six teams did that in 2012."
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2013/norv-turner-all-stars
Then we have the fact that since Chud became the Carolina offensive coordinator, their teams have won less games than their Pythagorean win total suggested.
2011:
Pythagorean Record: 9-7
Actual Record: 6-10
2012:
Pythagorean Record: 8-8
Actual Record: 7-9
And then there's stats like Cam Newton being 2-14 in fourth-quarter comeback drives and 2-15 in game-winning drives opportunities in his two years in the league. Or Rivers not having a fourth-quarter comeback or game-winning drive since the first game of the 2011 season.
Both of these coaches have been extreme underachievers in the past. Lots of close games and lots of close losses. Their teams and units can put up points, but they don't come through in the clutch and usually make silly mistakes. I can only hope for Browns fans that you aren't subject to the headbutts, fumbled snaps, missed field goals, blocked punts, and other ridiculous ways of losing that I've been subjected to as a Charger fan...
But either way, a lot of close losses for this team wouldn't surprise me at all and that's what I'm personally projecting.
8-8 and lots of close losses, with a slow start and a strong finish.
Norvs got a couple of Superbowl rings.. I might add, while doing the job he's been hired to do here.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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2nd String
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Jimmy Johnson is considered to be one of the greatest motivators in NFL history...
He allowed Norv to work with the X's and O's to the greatest of his abilities, while he himself worked with the players.
Chud, meanwhile, has a similar, albeit less exaggerated track record than Norv. His units put up good numbers and metrics, but struggle to make the cruci_l plays that are the difference between winning and losing, and frequently make silly mistakes that cause them to lose games that they should have won. This, to me, suggests that Chud isn't a great motivator like the legendary Jimmy Johnson.
Don't get me wrong, this team is built for a Chud/Turner offense. Two great pass-protecting tackles, physical RB, talented deep threat, QB who was at least being called an accurate deep thrower back in college, etc.
If Weeden picks up the offense (which isn't a given), they'll be good. But having a good offense doesn't mean this team is going to win games and make the POs, even if Horton's defense plays well too.
This team can easily miss the POs despite having a good offense and defense if they have poor motivators at the helm, who struggle to help their team come through in the clutch and win close games.
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Quote:
256 wins, vs 256 losses. Just checking.
The AFC is 118 and 138... While the NFC is 138 and 118. The computers don't like the AFC.
I have an idea. How many times does the Browns offense score 4 td's in a game? and How do they beat the Dolphins in week 1?
To be honest, I didn't check those numbers because all I was interested in was checking the formula. Funny that it worked out like that.
As for those saying it is "to[sic] early" to predict these things, I disagree.
1. Too early for this would be when the data isn't available. I could have run these numbers after week 17 if I wanted to.
2. It isn't a hard and fast rule, just a prediction based on past occurrences. If I were saying that this is exactly what would happen, yeah, that'd be ridiculous.
3. Anything that can get discussion going on probabilities in football is good in my book. The fact that the study of deeper statistics in football is still in its infancy and constantly growing is a fascinating topic.
Proud fan of the Pulaski Academy football strategy.
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