DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum NFL Trade Value Rankings - Part I

To note: I highly encourage you to read the story on the Grantland website due to editing, pics and footnotes. I'm only grabbing the majority of the text below to facilitate discussion.

Grantland Article - Part I

NFL Trade Value, Part 1
Bill Barnwell delivers his annual ranking of the NFL's top 50 most valuable assets, with a few notes from The Sports Guy
By Bill Barnwell on July 22, 2013

new asset class was delivered to the NFL in 2012, as a crop of young, cheap, and extremely talented quarterbacks emerged to be the most valuable set of rookies in league history. With the new NFL CBA inducting rookies into the league at a fraction of their former price, teams like the Colts and Seahawks were not only able to get Pro Bowl production under center at a fraction of the market rate, they were able to use the millions of dollars they saved to go splurge on veteran talent during free agency.

And ever since the Gang of Four began to emerge, I've had people hounding me with one question: Where are they going to fall on the Trade Value Chart? Hell, I've been wondering about it myself for the better part of nine months now. Could it take as few as seven regular-season starts for a player like Colin Kaepernick to become the most valuable commodity in all of football?

So, of course, we had to bring the NFL Trade Value rankings back for a second season. "We," of course, again being a two-man crew. Just as we ran it last year, I'll be joined in this space by the man who spawned the NBA Trade Value rankings years ago, Grantland grand pooh-bah Bill Simmons, who will be offering up a running commentary in the footnotes. Simmons took it pretty easy on me last year, but that was before the Patriots' depth chart at receiver made Simmons don the Celtics Press Conference face.1 This year, the standard is tougher and the stakes are higher.

I would say last year's trade value rankings, one year later, get a B-. (You can see those rankings here and here. Simmons and I stumbled onto some right moves and had a few good ideas, but there were a few too many missteps to be grade-A work. I'll just put this one Simmons comment down as the guide to our report card:

Also, Barnwell will rue the day that Aaron Hernandez wasn't included on this list. My Top-Three Come-Back-to-Haunt-Barnwell's-List-This-Season Predictions: Hernandez, Matt Kalil, and … (wait for it) … Russell Wilson.2
In all fairness, that could very well be construed as my boss looking out for my personal safety while living in Boston. And, of course, you'll be seeing more of Mr. Wilson later on. But since this is the second edition of these rankings, we now get to go through my favorite part of the NBA Trade Value rankings: the sad list of players booted out of the top 50.

Victor Cruz (49th on the list last year) hooked up with Hov and got a new deal that takes him from the bargain basement up to that club from the "Can I Get a … " video … Rob Gronkowski (31st) is going to try to spike a ball in October and have his arm just fall off …3 Mike Wallace (24th) attracted such little interest from the Steelers that nearly the entire league realized something was probably rotten; fortunately, Jeff Ireland was actually sneezing into a hundred-dollar bill when everybody was sniffing around Wallace … Michael Vick (17th) would still be on the list if this were the trolling Michael Vick's old coaches rankings … and Philip Rivers (15th) has lost nearly two full yards per attempt over the past two years, which is weird, because checkdown machines don't normally cost $17 million.

Larry Fitzgerald, Rivers, and Brandon Flowers each came close to making this list again, but the rest of those guys were a ways away from the top 50.4 These next players, though, were the ones who came up just short of cracking the charts. Starting with the easier cuts and working our way down to the toughest …

Anthony Castonzo, Lavonte David, Russell Okung, Trent Richardson, and Jabaal Sheard are the five young guys I can't put on this list but who I am simultaneously worried will make me look bad for not doing so. Richardson is this year's guy in fantasy football who is either going to be taken 10 picks too early or 10 picks too late in every draft, and nobody has any idea which side it will be.5

Andy Dalton is one of nine quarterbacks since the merger to start a playoff game during each of his first two seasons in the NFL. That's cool, because it's a list that includes John Elway, Joe Flacco, Dan Marino, and Ben Roethlisberger. On the other hand, the other guys on that list are Pat Haden, Bernie Kosar, Shaun King, and Mark Sanchez. Which side of the list do you think Andy Dalton fits in with?6

Roddy White has averaged a 94-1,296-8 line since the offseason training light went on for him before the 2007 season, and somehow he's the third-most notable receiver in his own offense. It was a little suspicious that the Falcons didn't offer White a new contract this offseason, since he has only two years left on his six-year deal, and the Falcons could have taken some of his $9.125 million cap hit and pushed it into the future, but he'll continue to be productive and probably have a Derrick Mason–like run in his thirties.

Matt Schaub got a big contract extension before the season, so the Texans are basically all-in with him and Gary Kubiak for the next three years. Schaub's numbers are fine, but has anybody ever stood across the field from the Texans and been terrified of Matt Schaub stepping onto the field? Will anyone ever be scared?7

Cameron Wake received a glowing write-up in the All-22 series, and he's a great pass rusher, but that time in the CFL means that he's already 31. He also has the beginnings of a Saberhagen odd/even year thing going on, and this is the bad year in that cycle. Can we just call that a Saberhagen from now on? And does a Saberhagen sound vaguely dirty to anybody else?8

Jason Witten caught 110 passes last year. No, really. The only players who have more catches than Witten since 2007 are Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, and Roddy White. He has fumbled five times in 10 years. He can block. And at the position where everybody gets hurt, Witten has only missed one game in his 10-year career. Not only is he a Hall of Famer, he might even be able to retire today and make it to the Hall of Fame. Nobody realizes this, so his trade value isn't as high as it should be.

Alfred Morris plays with Robert Griffin in the zone read behind a zone-blocking offensive line, so even though he ran for 1,613 yards and cost the Redskins just over $400,000 last season, he's not about to help the Redskins reverse the emotional ledger of the Clinton Portis–for–Champ Bailey trade. On the bright side, he made a lot of money for anybody who bet that there wouldn't be a professional athlete with the name "Alfred" in the 21st century who didn't go by "Al" instead.9

Matt Kalil and Andrew Whitworth are both very good left tackles who narrowly miss out on this list solely by virtue of there being a lot of young, talented left tackles in the league right now, with a handful more who just showed up in this year's offensive line–heavy draft.

Chris Long is the best defensive lineman in football that nobody ever seems to think about, but he's on a massive second contract by virtue of his status as a top-five pick before the old CBA. His partner at end, Robert Quinn, had 10.5 sacks last year and just turned 23 in May. I have the feeling one of them is going to have a monster season this year, but I also have no idea which one it will be.

Muhammad Wilkerson is a versatile, occasionally dominant 3-4 defensive end for the Jets who is currently a very poor man's J.J. Watt. When I sent my list around to a number of close NFL observers inside and outside the league, Wilkerson was the guy whom more people told me to add than anybody else. That means he was destined to end up just short of the list and have a monster 2013. I'm doing this for you, Muhammad.10

Doug Martin ran for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns behind an offensive line that lost one Pro Bowl guard before the season (Davin Joseph) and the other (Carl Nicks) after seven games. Martin gets both those guards back this year. He fumbled only once on 368 touches, was often Josh Freeman's best underneath receiver, and had a cap hit of merely $1.2 million. He's not in the top 50 because there isn't a market for running backs in 2013, but guess who is …

Group I: Top 25 or Bust

50. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay

It's Jaaaaash! I simultaneously don't know how Josh Freeman can be on this list and how I could keep him off this list, which is a bad sign with 49 players to go. I can make a pretty strong case for him. It seems like he's been around forever, but Freeman turned only 25 in January; he's actually two months younger than Colin Kaepernick. He's had one genuinely great season, the 2010 campaign, when he averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and threw more than four touchdowns for every interception. He was having a second great season in 2012, and then, over the last five games of the year, this happened:

Games Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Yds/Att TD INT
1 through 11 199 349 57.0% 2,761 7.9 21 7
12 through 16 107 209 51.2% 1,304 6.2 6 10
Without warning, Freeman stopped making big plays downfield and started throwing ducks. He threw four picks against the Saints in Week 15, and followed up with four more interceptions against the Rams a week later.

That latter game is the key to unlocking the Freeman puzzle. He was sacked five times, the only time all season he was sacked more than twice. Ron Jaworski noted in his quarterback rankings that Freeman was terrible under pressure; only Mark Sanchez was worse, and he's a quarterback only in the same sense that Gustavo Fring was a fried-chicken magnate. Remember what I said earlier about Martin getting two Pro Bowl guards back in the lineup? Freeman gets those guys back, too. And when you consider that his wideouts are a pair of downfield threats (Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams), Freeman needs as much time as possible for those guys to get downfield and make plays.

I'm inclined to think the offensive line or some sort of hidden injury were most of Freeman's problem, but then again, the organization basically sold Freeman out this offseason. Greg Schiano actually suggested that Mike Glennon would compete with Freeman for the starting job, and GM Mark Dominik didn't even begin negotiations on a long-term deal with Freeman's agents. That's damning in and of itself. In any case, Freeman won't be in this spot again next year. He'll either be up in the mid-twenties after a big season or nowhere near the list at all, having failed to live up to the lofty promises of 2010.11

Group II: A New England

49. Nate Solder, LT, New England

Solder moved over from the right side to protect Tom Brady's blind side last year and didn't miss a beat. He took only three penalties for a total of 20 yards all season, allowed 3.5 sacks (per STATS), and was a capable one-on-one pass protector against just about anyone he came across. Not bad for less than $2 million, and he's got two more years at a total of right around $5 million to come. Solder also allowed the Patriots to push Sebastian Vollmer to right tackle, where he's a Pro Bowl–caliber player. If the Patriots really do move toward a more conventional run-based offense this year, Solder's going to be an even bigger part of the picture for the Patriots.12

48. Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina

I've been hard on Marty Hurney in the past, but the now-deposed Carolina general manager was very wise to go Best Available Player and take Kuechly with the ninth pick in the 2012 draft. The Boston College product became the heart and soul of the Carolina defense as a rookie, especially after he was moved from the weak side to middle linebacker. He also entered the draft at 21, so having turned 22 in April, he's 13 months younger than the top linebacker from this year's draft, Dion Jordan. He plays like Ray Lewis, so I think he should go all-out and steal Ray Lewis's introduction and dance and deer-antler spray gimmick and see where it takes him.

Group III: The Able Veterans

47. Brian Orakpo, LB, Washington

Missed nearly the entire season after tearing his pectoral muscle in Week 2. Beginning to wonder whether there's going to be any more production out of Orakpo than what we've seen so far; he looked like a stud pass rusher when he racked up 11 sacks during his rookie campaign, but he has now amassed a total of just 18.5 sacks over the ensuing three seasons. This is the last year of his rookie deal, so if you believe in contract years, Orakpo should be about ready to have one.13

46. Joe Staley, LT, San Francisco

Staley was a very good right tackle who was eventually pushed over to the left side out of sheer desperation, but he's become one of the best left tackles in the league while working in lockstep with the NFL's best starting five. The 49ers also absorbed the vast majority of the cap hit on his contract back when they were terrible, so his deal is a joy to behold: Staley will make $2.8 million this year, $3.4 million next year, and just over $6 million per year over the final three seasons of the deal. Now the 49ers just need to mind-trick him into not forcing a renegotiation.

45. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit

Some guys peak during their rookie season. Ndamukong Suh may very well be one of those guys, because he was unblockable for most of 2010. He's become a symbol of the "dirty" Lions for stomping on Evan Dietrich-Smith in 2011 and kicking Matt Schaub in the groin last ye … actually, can we stop and watch that kick again?



I don't know whether that was intentional. I'm also pretty sure that tackling a defensive player is illegal, though, and I'm 100 percent positive that Suh is being dragged down by a Texans offensive lineman on that play. (The hold went uncalled.) Point being: Suh's really good. He does everything you would want a defensive tackle to do. When the Lions are winning, people will describe the extracurricular stuff as "nasty." When they're losing, people will call it "dirty." Whatever it is, it's not as dirty as what Warren Sapp did to Chad Clifton, and Warren Sapp gets to say stuff like "Simeon [Rice] was a better rusher than Michael Strahan any day of the week" and get paid for it! So, let's chill on Ndamukong Suh.14

44. Eric Weddle, S, San Diego

A few years ago, it seemed like Eric Weddle was going to be perennially underappreciated in the AFC, with a host of Hall of Fame–caliber safeties standing in his way. Now, Bob Sanders is retired, Ed Reed has slipped dramatically, and Troy Polamalu can't stay healthy. That leaves Weddle as the best safety in the conference, and while he can't match those guys at their peaks, he's a versatile safety who does everything well. Weddle is exactly the sort of player who would be revered nationally if he played for the Patriots, but doesn't attract a peep of attention because his team has spent the last three years battling home blackouts and Norv Turner.15

43. Haloti Ngata, DT, Baltimore

Networks mercifully moved on from the "Did you know Haloti Ngata played rugby?" packages during Ravens games last year, so Ngata went back to actually being a little underrated again. The Ravens really missed him in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl, but the knee injury he suffered on Frank Gore's touchdown run shouldn't bother him next year. Oh, and by the way, he's another guy noted analyst Warren Sapp doesn't like!

42. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

Tony Romo is the NFL's walking contradiction. He's almost universally regarded as a quarterback who can't handle the big moments and the pressure-packed situations, and yet Romo led the league with five fourth-quarter comebacks last season. He had a sixth comeback from 14 points down with five minutes left to force overtime in New Orleans, and a seventh comeback against the Ravens in Baltimore fell short when Dan Bailey missed a would-be game-winning field goal. Over the past five seasons, when the game has been within one score in the fourth quarter, the only guys with a higher passer rating are Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees. Dude gets after it when the game's on the line, I promise you, but his reputation is awful enough in those situations that even "Stone Cold" Steve Austin doesn't think Tony Romo has what it takes there. (In all fairness, Austin was 5-2 at WrestleMania, so he might be qualified to evaluate Romo's clutch performance.)

Romo's never going to change: He's an incredible improviser capable of making both brilliant plays and absolutely abysmal decisions on the fly.16 The team around him will have to get better if the Cowboys are going to make a push toward a Super Bowl. And as the massive contract Romo just leveraged his way into begins to take hold, it will be harder for the Cowboys to acquire the sorts of surrounding talent they need to satisfy their fans' thirst for a title.

Group IV: The Promise of Stardom

41. Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay

At this point, Cobb is a Percy Harvin starter kit without the vast majority of the injury issues that have slowed Harvin's career. Harvin just got a six-year deal that guaranteed him $14.5 million, with $11 million more coming if he's on the Seahawks roster in 2014. Cobb has two years and a total of about $1.9 million left on his deal. He's also about to turn 23 in August, so he's only about seven months older than Tavon Austin, the top-selected wideout in this year's draft. Keep in mind that Cobb had 80 catches without even serving as a full-time wideout last season; he caught a pass once for every 7.9 offensive snaps he saw last year, which was the third-highest rate in the league. The guy who caught passes most frequently on a per-snap basis? Percy Harvin.

40. Mike Iupati, G, San Francisco

The bulldozing guard at the heart of San Francisco's dominant running game, Iupati is the best young interior offensive lineman in football. He's also the prototypical Niner: a massively strong, hyperathletic ass-kicker with above-average technique. He's also making right around $2.75 million per year for the next two years. The left side of the San Francisco line, with Iupati alongside the aforementioned Staley, could be the best side of any line in football for the next several seasons. Also, he's got a great name for a mauling guard, right?

39. Tyron Smith, LT, Dallas

Dallas has been pretty lucky with left tackles the past few decades: Outside of spare years by the likes of George Hegamin and Doug Free, they've lined up Mark Tuinei, Flozell Adams, and now Tyron Smith, who seems ready to fill the position for the next 10 years. After allowing 9.5 sacks at right tackle during his rookie season, Smith moved to the more demanding left side and allowed just three takedowns of Tony Romo during a Pro Bowl–caliber season. Like Cobb, he also entered the league at 20, so the players from his birth year are just joining the league; Smith is less than one month younger than first overall pick Eric Fisher.17

38. NaVorro Bowman, LB, San Francisco

It's close to impossible to get a true read on Bowman's level of ability because he's surrounded by Pro Bowlers on all sides. He plays alongside Patrick Willis, who is almost universally regarded as the best middle linebacker in football, and Willis made both Takeo Spikes and Aubrayo Franklin look great before they left town and failed to impress elsewhere. Bowman sure looks great, though, and he's doing something that nobody expected: taking snaps away from Willis. There were times last year when Bowman, not Willis, lined up in five– and six–defensive back sets, and Bowman actually played 17 more defensive snaps than Willis during the regular season. I still think Willis is the better player, and Bowman does genuinely benefit from the players around him, but I'm of the opinion that he's a significant asset in his own right.

37. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland

Cleveland, not Oakland, is the black hole. There are a few great players there, but unless you're an absolute football junkie, you don't see them or hear about them.18 Joe Haden could change his name to Chris Gaines, grow a soul patch, and perform an adult alternative pop album at halftime every week and we wouldn't hear about it for a month. When he's not suspended, Haden is as close to a shutdown corner as there is in football, although he was more consistent in 2011 than he was in 2012. He's also just 24 and has two years left on an old-CBA rookie deal that pays him a manageable $7 million or so per year.

36. Ryan Clady, LT, Denver

35. Trent Williams, LT, Washington

Pick one. Clady's been the better player at each of their respective peaks, but he just got a brand-new contract that pays him something close to full market value, is two years older, and is one of the many NFL players to suffer a serious injury playing basketball, having torn his patellar tendon before the 2010 campaign. He didn't return to his previous level of form until Peyton Manning showed up, and it was fair of Grantland colleague Robert Mays to wonder whether Clady's resurgence had something to do with the quick release and flawless footwork of Manning. Williams isn't as refined of a pass blocker, but he excelled as a downfield run- and screen-blocker last year in a Washington offense that requires a ton of energy. I'd want him over the next five years as opposed to Clady.19

Group V: This Isn't It?

34. Clay Matthews, LB, Green Bay

You can see a superstar inside Clay Matthews's numbers, but you have to play around a bit with the timing. Look at him on a season-by-season basis and you see the steady churn of a very good if not dominant pass rusher: He had 10 sacks as a rookie, then 13.5, an off-year with six, and 13 last season. Start finessing the numbers a bit, though, and you can locate a truly great player. Add his excellent work in the playoffs, where he has 7.5 sacks in eight games (and spent most of Green Bay's Super Bowl win as a decoy and spy on Ben Roethlisberger). Ignore his slow start as a pro, when he wasn't playing full-time. If you don't start at the beginning of a given season, you can find a stretch of 16 consecutive games in which Matthews recorded 18.5 sacks, and a 14-game stretch dating back to the beginning of last season in which he recorded 16 sacks. He's an excellent player with some nagging injury issues, and I still don't think we've seen his best full season of football.

33. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago

Josh Freeman has about $25 million in guaranteed money riding on his success this season, which is maybe more than anybody else in football. Jay Cutler is just behind him. I wrote last year that we should stop waiting for Jay Cutler to change into some drastically different quarterback, but if Jay Cutler ever was going to change and take a sustained step forward, this would be the year. He'll have the best offensive line he's seen since his days in Denver, with first-round pick Kyle Long slotting in at guard and free-agent tackle Jermon Bushrod finally pushing overwhelmed left tackle J'Marcus Webb to the right side. He'll have a tight end who can actually catch, Martellus Bennett. And he'll finally have a head coach who has experience working with quarterbacks, former Montreal Alouettes head coach Marc Trestman. In the final year of his contract, Cutler has the best cast around him that he's had during his time in Chicago.

The difference between Freeman and Cutler is, the latter has a much higher ceiling.20 If Cutler has a disappointing season and the Bears don't re-sign him, he'll still attract plenty of attention in free agency and get $15 million or so in guaranteed money. If Freeman has a disappointing season, he's more likely to get a Kevin Kolb sort of contract with a few million dollars guaranteed. At 30, this might also be Cutler's last chance to get a megabucks long-term deal, so he has everything to play for in 2013.

Group VI: NFC East Crossroads

32. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas

31. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants

Sometimes we get overly caught up in career sequencing and make too much out of what a player did last year. These two guys are a perfect example of that issue because they're eerily similar. Both Bryant and JPP are 24-year-old first-round picks from the 2010 NFL draft who play in the NFC East. They each exhibited flashes of brilliance in situational roles during their respective rookie seasons. They've each had one disappointing year as a full-time starter and one dominant season that seemed to deliver on all the promise they exhibited coming out of college. The difference is that JPP's breakout season came during his second year in the league, and Bryant's phenomenal campaign was last year, during his third season. Because Bryant's career path was more conventional, though, I get the feeling that folks are expecting a lot more out of Bryant than they are from JPP. That seems too robotic. Players are subject to so many whims, and the sample size of the NFL season is so small, that we only get a small window into what they are and what they can do each year. Pierre-Paul hasn't stagnated and Bryant hasn't broken out; they're just two really talented players who did a better job of exhibiting their brilliance at different points in their careers.21

COMING WEDNESDAY: NFL Trade Value, Part 2

A few takeaways for me:

Nice to see a few of our players get some airtime here such as Honorable Mentions Trent Richardson and Jabaal Sheard. As well as a high ranking for Joe Haden.

A player I was particularly fond of pre-draft last year made Honorable Mention as well: Lavonte David. Pretty unbelievable year from him. One of the highest tackle totals for all OLBs in the league. Helped the Bucs go from #32 in rush defense to #1 in ONE year.

Joe Thomas has to be in the Top 30. No doubt. I'd like to see him around #15 but not holding my breath.

I'm watching Dez Bryant's career with interest. Now that he's turned the corner as an elite star will he remain there for the next 5-8 years? Or will something else happen. Probably 50/50 proposition for me.

Doug Martin is going to beast next year with those two Guards returning. Almost forgot about that. Him and CJ2K I predict will surpass the 1.5k mark. One of them may hit 2k.

Great as he is, I really, really doubt Joe makes the list.

Probably about halfway through his career, and has a massive contract. This isn't just about how good someone is, it is about how cheap they are right now.

it's about how valuable they are and the best pass protection LT in the game is valuable.

Interesting article.

It would be cool to sit down w/the guy and some other fans and debate it. For instance, I have a problem w/Romo and Freeman on the list and guys like Witten and Doug Martin are not on the list.

I am not really criticizing the guy, because lists like that are very hard to do. It would just make for good debate.

I think Joe makes the list.

Romo and Freeman are on the list because QBs are so much more valuable than any other position.

Barnwell gives super high importance to LTs as well though. I wouldn't be shocked if Thomas is on there. Skill vs contract I think are right in line with value.

Again...don't read this here...click the link below to read on the Grantland website for more info than is contained below

Grantland Article - Part 2

NFL Trade Value, Part 2

Bill Barnwell completes his ranking of the NFL's top 50 most valuable assets, with a few notes from The Sports Guy
By Bill Barnwell on July 24, 2013

If you missed Part 1 of the NFL Trade Value rankings, CLICK HERE. As he did on Monday, Grantland grand pooh-bah Bill Simmons added notes to the rest of Bill Barnwell's list. Now, on to Part 2.

Group VII: NFL MVP

30. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota

There were two players that were far harder to slot on this list than any others. I'll talk about the other one a little later, but Adrian Peterson is one of the two.

The real difficulty in evaluating Peterson's trade value is that there are at least three distinct flavors of Adrian Peterson, and we have no idea which version is going to show up. If we get the 2012 league MVP version, well, that guy is obviously incredibly valuable! Despite his hefty contract and advancing age, if you could guarantee that Adrian Peterson will carry the ball 21 times a game and average six yards per pop, you would put him ahead of all but the very top quarterbacks in football in these rankings.

If you get the 2007-10 version of Adrian Peterson — the guy who was the league's best running back, not the league's best player — you get a player who averaged 1,446 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 300 carries. That's a very talented player, but it's essentially what Doug Martin did last season, and at a $13.9 million cap hold with some penalty for aging, it's not an incredibly valuable contract. You might slot Peterson somewhere in the 40s with that deal, since a fair amount of the league's teams wouldn't want to (or be able to) commit that much money to a running back. And if you get the 2011 version of Adrian Peterson, who missed time with a high ankle sprain before suffering a catastrophic knee injury, well, you've spent $14 million to get disappointed. And in terms of evaluating Adrian Peterson's value in a trade going forward, that 2011 season is just as meaningful as his 2012 campaign.

I'm not going to put any cap on what Adrian Peterson can do. I'd feel stupid, and it's way more fun to think about a dominant running back making defenders look like children than it is to envision a guy being carried off the field. If you're an NFL general manager, though, part of your job is to mitigate risk and not lose sight of the bigger picture. The attrition rate for running backs who have been worked as hard as Adrian Peterson through their twenties is scary high, and the chances that even a legendary player will produce record-setting numbers in consecutive years are very low. The guys ahead of Adrian Peterson on this list are the cream of the crop: elite quarterbacks, dominant players at more important positions that are scarcer with talent, and young players on exceedingly team-friendly contracts. If I were trying to win one game in 2013, Adrian Peterson would be one of the five most valuable players in football. If I were trying to win one Super Bowl in the next five years, Adrian Peterson would slot in right around here.1

Group VIII: Conversations in a Waiting Room

29. Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos

28. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Five questions with regard to a comparison between two very dissimilar players at different points of their careers …

1. What would Megatron's numbers look like if Peyton Manning had been his quarterback for the past four years? Include a year in which Manning is hurt all year and Megatron has to play with Curtis Painter.

2. How far could Matthew Stafford throw the ball in the thin air of Denver with the wind behind his back? Because I'm basically picturing that Michael Vick Powerade commercial.

3. Would Matthew Stafford be a better player if a Taser zapped him every time he tried to pull that sidearm .?

4. What are the odds that Peyton Manning was snapping every one of those Johnny Manziel photos during that night out at his passing camp?

5. What are the odds that a drunk Dirk/Nash photo exists of the Manning brothers?

Oh, and a bonus question …

6. What are the odds that Dirk Nowitzki thinks about how Dallas broke up a championship-winning team and saved their cap space for Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis and starts wanting to get that drunk again on a regular basis?

What, you want actual analysis? OK. Here are the prorated 16-game numbers for Manning and Stafford through the first four seasons of their respective careers:2

Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Yds/Att TD INT
Stafford 396 662 59.8% 4,554 6.9 28 19
Manning 339 556 61.0% 4,104 7.4 28 20
Group IX: Texas Road Graders

27. Duane Brown, LT, Houston

You have to really start picking nits to find something wrong with Duane Brown. He's the sort of athletic left tackle that a zone-blocking scheme needs to cut guys on the backside of a stretch play, but he's also got enough size to hold up at the point of attack if the Texans want to run right behind him. The former college tight end can get to the second level and run down a linebacker or a safety, but he also has the technique to create time for Schaub on one of Houston's many play-action pass attempts. He's also 27 and signed to a team-friendly deal that leaves him as merely the 10th-highest-paid tackle in football. It's also always exciting to see dudes named Duane in professional sports. We were really at a high in the late '80s with Duane Ward and Duane Sutter, but the sports world was pretty much down to Duane Starks for a while, and mentioning Duane Starks sends Simmons into a frenzy.3

26. DeMarcus Ware, DE, Dallas

The bloom's off the rose a bit. Ware has never missed a game and he's still productive, but he's 31 and in the middle of a contract so demanding that the Cowboys are perpetually trying to renegotiate it to create cap space. Dallas is also switching to a 4-3 this offseason, which will move Ware from his traditional perch as an outside linebacker to a defensive end's role for the first time. There are some advantages — Ware won't have to worry about dropping back in coverage, for one — but there are certain players who don't handle this switch very well, and we won't know whether Ware is one of those guys for a couple of seasons.

Group X: NFC West Fistfight Edition

25. Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco

24. Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle4

23. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle

22. Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco

In discussions of these rankings with league observers, Aldon Smith was a hugely divisive player. On one hand, you can't really argue with 33.5 sacks through two seasons; that's more than anybody else in league history. Sack totals don't stretch back through league history, but they go back far enough that we can put Smith ahead of Reggie White, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, and every other pass rusher since 1983 in terms of his production at this point in his career. That's already booked. On the other hand, everybody remembers Aldon Smith's disappearing act after Justin Smith went down with a torn triceps tendon and came back at far less than 100 percent. There's a reasonably significant portion of those league observers who think that Aldon Smith is merely a Justin Smith puppet show, and the evidence certainly raises some questions. That puts him at the back of this pile.

Earl Thomas moves like Richard Sherman talks, and I'm complimenting each of them in saying so. Thomas is already the best safety in football and he's just 24 years old, so if he stays healthy, we could very well be looking at a guy who is a lock for the Hall of Fame by 30. Sherman's upside isn't quite as high, and he's not quite as good as his world-class .-talking might suggest (I remember that Falcons game, too), but he's a very good cornerback who fills in admirably in run support and who will have a cap hit of $600,000 this year and less than $700,000 next year. Both benefit from the presence of Pete Carroll, who is regarded as a wizard with defensive backs.

If Thomas plays at this same level for four more seasons, he'll be Patrick Willis, who is as sure a bet for the Hall of Fame at 28 as anyone has been besides Tom Brady.5

Group XI: Last Stop for Veterans

21. Joe Thomas, LT, Cleveland

The last offensive lineman on the list! The numbers side of me just cried out with happiness. Remember when we were talking about Ryan Clady earlier and I mentioned the Mays piece that suggested how Clady benefited from the presence of Peyton Manning behind him? Well, during his career, Joe Thomas has been the left tackle for Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Bruce Gradkowski, Ken Dorsey, Brady Quinn, Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy, Jake Delhomme, Thaddeus Lewis, and Brandon Weeden.6 It's as if we took the T-800 from Terminator 2 and assigned him to protect Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Bruce Gra … you get the idea. Anyway, if you see him, give Joe Thomas a hug and a decent quarterback if you know one.

20. Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati

He was overshadowed a bit by the J.J. Wattquake, but Atkins deserves attention in his own right as the best 4-3 defensive tackle in football. As an undersize rush tackle capable of penetrating into the backfield for quarterback pressures and tackles for loss, he brings up comparisons to, well, Warren Sapp. (Warren Sapp is the Arrested Development Season 4 ostrich of this list.) His dominance is such that he managed to pick up 12.5 sacks as a defensive tackle and make the ends on either side of him look great, which is why Carlos Dunlap just got a $40 million contract after starting all of two pro games across three seasons. It's Atkins's turn to get paid next, as he is in the final year of his rookie contract, making a paltry $1.5 million. I would suspect the Bengals will slap the franchise tag on him next year and pay him around $8.5 million on a one-year deal, mainly because they are and always will be the Bengals.7

19. Darrelle Revis, CB, Tampa Bay

Revis tears his ACL, misses virtually the entire season, and he only falls from sixth to 19th? That seems fair to me. We just got a glimpse into his market value at its absolute lowest, as the Jets had no leverage and Revis hadn't reestablished his health, and Revis was still worth a mid-first-round pick and a third-rounder next year. He also got a six-year, $96 million deal with no guaranteed money, but one that will almost surely pay him at least $32 million over two years before the Bucs would consider getting rid of their newly acquired star cornerback. Atkins would fetch more in a trade, but he's healthy and will get a smaller contract.8 I don't see any reason to think thaB Revis will lose a noticeable step from the torn ACL, and by midseason he should be back to his previous form. Then again, I thought Nnamdi Asomugha was going to move back to the outside and become the best cornerback in the NFC last season, so let's actually check back in on this one at midseason to ensure that I'm not as wrong as I was last year.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

He doesn't get to bring the Super Bowl trophies with him. If you acquire Ben Roethlisberger, you're trading for a guy who has played exactly one full regular season through age 30, who misses an average of two games per season, whose ineffectiveness after a high ankle sprain knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs in 2011 and unavailability with a shoulder injury prevented Pittsburgh from making a run into the playoffs in 2012. The production's still there when Roethlisberger is in the lineup, but does anybody want to make a big bet on a guy who gets hit as frequently as Roethlisberger playing deep into his thirties?9

17. Von Miller, LB, Denver

Miller has 30 sacks to Aldon Smith's 33.5 over their respective first two seasons in the league, but Miller is regarded around the league as a superior player. He's considered to be a better all-around talent, taking on more responsibilities in coverage and accomplishing almost as much as Smith with much less talent around him. Almost everyone I've talked to considers Miller to be the superior player to Smith, and I'm inclined to agree.

There's just one thing I have to mention, though. You know how Aldon Smith might appear to be a product of Justin Smith? Well, Von Miller doesn't have a Justin Smith playing in front of him, but he did have a very good pass rusher playing on the other hashmark during his first two years: Elvis Dumervil, who was farcically cut this offseason and is now in Baltimore. Denver replaced Dumervil with Shaun Phillips, who is three years older than Dumervil and already a less effective player. Will the absence of a Pro Bowl–caliber partner slow Miller down? We'll find out soon enough.10 One more thing, Miller might even have been higher on this list — like number 14 — before he received a four-game suspension.

Group XII: The Perennial Competition

16. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta

15. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati

These guys are basically going to line up year after year until one significantly separates from the other. At the moment, it's pretty staggeringly close: Green has averaged 77.6 receiving yards per game, while Jones is at 74.4 yards per tilt. They each have 18 receiving touchdowns. Jones is eight months younger than Green, which is almost enough to tip the scales in his favor, but the real advantage with Green here is that his production comes while needing to be the absolute man in Cincinnati. Green has to get his numbers with Andy Dalton at quarterback and Mohamed Sanu on the other side of the field. Jones gets his with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. Certainly seems to me like an easier life for Jones. Let's check in next year.11

Group XIII: Oh No, Not Joe Flacco

14. Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Joe Flacco was the other guy I knew I would find impossible to rate. Where on earth do you put him? Where do you even start?

It's entirely possible that Joe Flacco could retain a fair amount of his gains from the postseason. Eli Manning did it after his first postseason run. He won't post an 11-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio every four games like he did during the playoffs, of course, but a full season with Jim Caldwell at coordinator and Bryant McKinnie at left tackle should help. On the other hand, the Ravens also gave away Anquan Boldin and didn't replace him, which makes Flacco's job a bit harder.

I think Flacco's most valuable asset is his health, actually. Compare him to Roethlisberger, who most observers would say is the better player in a vacuum and who produces better numbers. If it were 16 games of Roethlisberger versus 16 games of Flacco, I'd choose Roethlisberger, but it's never 16 games of Roethlisberger. It's 14 games of Big Ben and two of Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich or somebody else of that caliber, and that's a notable drop-off. Factor in the aggregate health impact of Roethlisberger's assorted injuries and Flacco's reliable standard of health, and there's more of a case for Flacco than it might have seemed.

On the other hand, there are now 80 regular-season games that paint Flacco to be an average NFL quarterback against four playoff games that say he's a superstar, and the Ravens were forced to give him a contract that pays him like he's the guy from those four playoff games. The goal of every contract should be to obtain excess value, to get more than what you bargained for. The best-case scenario for the Flacco deal is that he lives up to the performance level implied from his six-year, $120 million contract; it's almost impossible to imagine him playing better than a $20 million-per-year quarterback, though, and that makes this a very unpalatable contract.12

Group XIV: A Home for the Last Mortal Non-Quarterbacks

13. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

A sneak peek into the production of this article: Before I put together the top 50, I go team by team rating about 150 players across the NFL on a 1-20 scale in five categories: age/place on career path, player health, expected level of production, contract status, and positional value. Eli, who hasn't missed a game as a pro or really come all that close, is one of the three players who made the list to get a perfect 20 in health, alongside Flacco and Ware.13 There were seven 20s for production (Peterson, Peyton Manning, Willis, Revis, Megatron, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers), none for age, and one for contract (Russell Wilson). All quarterbacks automatically get a 20 for positional value.

Last year was almost literally an average season for Eli. These are his average numbers over the past five seasons after the first Super Bowl win as compared to his 2012 line:

Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Yds/Att TD INT
Eli 2008-11 325 530 61.3% 4,028 7.6 27 16
Eli 2012 321 536 59.9% 3,948 7.4 26 15
That's still a pretty valuable player, and it seems like Eli will age well. He never gets hurt, he was sacked on a league-low 3.4 percent of dropbacks last year, and both his father and brother were able to make it to 35. At the same time, Eli's currently occupying a monstrous $20 million in cap space, and the extension he's going to get to drag him through his thirties is going to be for something in the $16 million-per-year range. If that completion percentage slips a bit more and he gets under seven yards per attempt, the Giants might end up with an average quarterback being paid like a superstar. I don't want to scare our legions of Eli fans, but it might make sense for the Giants to run Manning's existing contract out through his age-34 season and either let him go then or work with him on one-year deals after that.

12. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona

As everyone expected, teams stopped giving Peterson juicy punts to return, which meant that he didn't take four punts to the house in 2012, while his return average was cut in half. On the other hand, Peterson was the anchor of the league's second-best pass defense per DVOA, intercepting seven passes while breaking up 10 more and often lining up against the opposition's best receiver. And that was on a team whose best pass rusher was a middle linebacker, so it wasn't like there was a dominant rush forcing bad throws. Even if Peterson permanently cedes return duties to the Honey Badger,14 his work as a cornerback can be enough to justify his elite status. On top of that, Peterson still has two years left on his team-friendly rookie deal and just turned 23 in July; he's younger than four of the top 10 picks in this year's draft.

11. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit

It's hard for a non-quarterback with an enormous contract to rate any higher than this in 2013, so cut me some slack if you feel like this is too low for Megatron, because he's just about the perfect player. The injuries that nagged him a few years ago haven't stuck around the past couple of seasons, which was the last concern for his peak. The garbage-time arguments thrown around when he set the receiving record last year were, well, garbage. Even if his next few seasons look more like 2011 than 2012, the 2011 Megatron is still a player who will rank in the top 20 for the next three years. Oh, and don't read into those five touchdowns and the seemingly endless run of plays to the 1-yard line as anything more than an absolute fluke. There have been 18 instances since the merger of a receiver producing five touchdowns or fewer as part of a 90-catch, 1,000-yard season. Only one receiver, Wes Welker, pulled off the feat in consecutive seasons, and only Andre Johnson's done it twice. Calvin's touchdowns will be coming back.15

Group XV: The Second Tier of Quarterbacks

10. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina

Cam unfairly gets kept out of all the "Gang of Four" articles I'm writing because he was drafted a year earlier and doesn't fit into my narrative about players with virtually no pro experience suddenly taking over the league. Also, then I'd have to call the group "Five Guys," and we would lose Subway as a sponsor.16

The other thing is that Cam's passing production really isn't on par with those guys. He has better numbers than Andrew Luck did during his first season, but Cam can't make the same winners' argument that's spurring Luck into the group right now. Two years in, Cam's completing only 58.9 percent of his passes; he's averaging a robust 7.9 yards per attempt, which is impressive, but Russell Wilson and RG3 can do that while completing 64-65 percent of their throws. Cam could use a possession receiver to work across from Steve Smith, but the Panthers keep adding deep threats like Ted Ginn. If Domenik Hixon could stay healthy, he could be that guy, but Domenik Hixon refuses to even consider staying healthy for any stretch of time.

The other thing holding Cam back a bit is that he is already through the first two years of his guaranteed four-year deal, meaning that the Panthers really have only one more year of Cam at a team-friendly price before they get to his mammoth second contract. Having three years of team control on a rookie contract is significantly more valuable than having two years, and that comes into play for another young quarterback I'll get to in a moment.17

9. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

From 2009 to 2011, Drew Brees completed 69.9 percent of his passes. Those three individual seasons included both the first- and second-best completion percentages in league history (and the 19th, you slacker). That's otherworldly. Last year, Brees was down to 63.0 percent, which was his lowest rate in eight years. His yards per attempt fell from 8.3 to 7.7. He led the league in interceptions, although he also threw nearly 42 passes per game, so his interception rate wasn't all that bad. Brees's value is derived from throwing all those passes; with 690 attempts on the year, he threw nearly twice as many as the likes of Russell Wilson or Robert Griffin (each at 393). Brees never gets sacked and is rarely hit because of his quick release, so when he's completing 70 percent of his passes, he's just too consistent moving the ball to really stop. When he's back at 63 percent, Brees is still good, but he's far easier to control.

Where did the catches go? Mostly, his wideouts got way worse:

Player 2011 Catch % 2012 Catch %
RB 79.7% 73.2%
WR 70.3% 59.9%
TE 65.1% 63.2%
There's no one wideout who it affected, either, which is odd. One of two things are about to happen, though: Either Sean Payton is going to come back and restore Drew Brees to that near–70 percent level,18 and the Saints are going to be a terror to stop in 2013, or Brees won't hit that level of accuracy again, and he'll struggle to offer a return on his record-breaking contract.

8. Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco

Because Kaepernick was drafted in 2011 (as opposed to the other three members of the Gang of Four, who were drafted in 2012), he also has only two years left on his contract. Unlike Newton, who's making an average of over $5 million per year, Kaepernick's contract as a second-rounder pays him only $5.1 million over the entire four-year deal, so it's a much friendlier contract.

On the other hand, Kaepernick is nearly 18 months older than Newton and has started just 10 professional games to Newton's 32, so there's not as big of a gap between these two as you might have thought. Kaepernick's going to greatly enjoy a full year of first-team reps while working with Jim Harbaugh, but he's also going to be without his best receiver, Michael Crabtree, for most of the 2013 season. If Anquan Boldin plays like the regular-season Anquan Boldin of the past three seasons and not the playoff version of Anquan Boldin, this group of receiveËs begins to get pretty hairy. It's enough to temper our enthusiasm about Kaepernick just a tiny bit, bumping him down to no. 8 for now.

7. Tom Brady, QB, New England

This is partly unfair, because Brady left money on the table to help try to build a winner in New England; if he got traded, I suspect he would want to grab that money off the table, so I'm factoring that in.

Brady's numbers unquestionably dipped last year. His completion percentage was 63.0 percent and he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt; both are the lowest figures he's hit since Moss and Welker arrived in 2007. Those are still excellent figures, of course, but they're not the greatest-of-all-time figures from 2007 or 2010. At age 36, it's safe to say those days are gone. His interception rate was an unsustainably low 1.3 percent, so he'll add a few more picks next year, and this is all before we consider the drastic overhaul in his receiving corps and what that's likely to do to his performance. The odds are against Brady ever being this high again.19

6. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta

Ryan's lack of a contract extension both helps and hurts his value. On one hand, he isn't tied into an enormous deal with tons of guaranteed money if he were to get hurt this season; on the other hand, you're basically stuck paying him franchise tag money or forced to shell out an enormous up-front signing bonus in giving him a new long-term deal.

In terms of his 2012, you saw what happened: Atlanta moved away from Michael Turner and went pass-happy; Ryan completed nearly 69 percent of his throws, kept his yards per attempt high, and won a playoff game to get those dudes off his back. If he sustains all of those 2012 gains, he's a top-five quarterback in the prime of his career. If he drops back to his pre-2012 levels, he's a good quarterback, but one who is likely to be overpaid by virtue of a market-value deal.20

One thing to note: I talk a lot about how teams can't consistently win a large percentage of those games that are decided by seven points or fewer, but there does seem to be an exception for great quarterbacks who are particularly effective at managing the clock and creating extra possessions for themselves at the ends of halves. This comes up for three people: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan, who is 27-11 in one-score games since arriving in the league. Normally, Atlanta's 7-2 record in one-touchdown games in 2012 would inspire fiery calls for regression toward the mean. I don't think they will go 7-2 again, but I'm skeptical that their performance in those games is totally random in the way that it is for other teams. If Ryan can pull out a disproportionately high percentage of those close games, he's worth millions more than his other numbers indicate. Like, a few dozen millions more.

5. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington

RG3 was the best young quarterback in football a year ago. His level of play was unprecedented for rookies, and he outplayed everybody else in and around the Gang of Four. If I could guarantee that he would play 16 games without getting injured, I'd put Robert Griffin at the top of this list.

I can't guarantee that, though, and I see a guy who gets into dangerous situations where injuries are a continual possibility. I can almost forgive him for slipping and sustaining a concussion near the sidelines against the Falcons, but a few weeks later, he was diving headfirst in the middle of the field at the end of a comfortable loss to the Panthers. More people who had tickets to that game heard about that on the radio trying to leave the parking lot than did actually sitting in their seats inside the stadium. He would eventually suffer a knee injury against the Ravens, make it worse by trying to play on it, and reaggravate the injury in the playoffs against the Seahawks. I really hope Robert Griffin proves me wrong, but I don't have a lot of faith in his knee or his team's ability to keep his competitiveness in line, and for players who are this valuable, a ding like that is enough to move a guy down a tier.21

Group XVI: Mutants

4. J.J. Watt, DL, Houston

I mean, you saw the dude play. He's like a video-game boss stuck into the middle of a football game. He does the same stuff all the other football players do, but when he does it, it hurts a lot more. And then, when you hit the reset button and try again, he does the same thing until you cheat to beat him. He also looks like Britt Daniel ate Henry Rollins, which is even more off-putting.

What's the difference between Watt's unprecedented level of production from last year and, say, Adrian Peterson's? For one, we have only two years of information on Watt and six or so on Peterson. We have much more evidence suggesting that Adrian Peterson is a 1,500-yard back than we do implying he's going to regularly hit 2,000 yards. That evidence doesn't really exist with Watt. What we have seen is a rookie year with some flashes of brilliance and then a second year with 20.5 sacks and 16 knockdowns. Peterson's also 28 with a lot of miles on his tires; he's at an age where we would expect even a Hall of Fame–caliber running back to begin declining. Watt is 24. By all accounts, he should be getting even better. I'm not really sure how that could happen, but if it does, that might be proof he has some adamantium in there somewhere. That's what Rollins is made out of, right? Wouldn't Brady-for-Watt be the perfect escape route from the Brady era for the Patriots? If the Patriots had a legitimate backup quarterback (they don't now), I really think Bill Belichick would go for it. Watt's on a rookie contract, he's the most destructive lineman in a generation, and Brady's 36 years old. My guess is that Belichick treats Watt's game tape like porn.22 I also think the Texans would trade Watt for Brady if they had let Matt Schaub go this past offseason, but they would have to spend more time thinking about it than the Patriots would.

Group XVII: The Other Big Three

3. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay

The case for Luck over Wilson before the draft last year was built around Luck's height and arm strength. They might sing a different tune now, but before the draft, personnel evaluators told Adam Caplan that Russell Wilson reminded them of Seneca Wallace, which makes sense because … oh, no, wait, that makes no sense. He actually slid off some teams' draft boards because of his height, which is stupid, because teams should build draft boards that don't let the names of really talented football players slip off so easily.

Now that Russell Wilson has proven that his work ethic, intelligence, and heaping gobs of football ability translate to the NFL level, there's no reason to think that other stuff matters. And in terms of the skills that actually translate to pro performance, Wilson's every bit as good as Andrew Luck. He also has a far better performance record after one season and, by virtue of teams passing on Wilson 73 times between Luck's selection with the first pick and Wilson's arrival into Seattle at no. 75, Wilson's four-year contract will cost the Seahawks just $2.2 million, which is about half of what Luck will make in just one season of his four-year deal. And Luck's contract is a bargain!23

As great as Wilson's contract is and as wonderful as he played last year, though, I think the Seahawks would deal him straight-up for Aaron Rodgers if they could. Rodgers isn't the foolproof no. 1 he was a year ago, since he's a year older and signed a massive new contract in April, but his level of play is still so remarkable (and likely to stay that way over the next three years) that I think the Seahawks would make the deal and try to win now. And I don't think the Packers could trade Aaron Rodgers and live to tell the tale.

21 for Thomas and having him as the top offensive lineman overall is good and justifiable.

30 for Peterson...I mean come on now. He needs to be in the teens somewhere.

And Russell Wilson at 2 is junk. Bunk junk. He is small. He survived 2012 but I think he's an injury worry moving forward. He is supported by a Monster at RB. And he threw for exactly zero 300 games in the regular season last year. He didn't even throw for more than 160 yards in his first 4 games. There were significant whispers about him the first quarter of 2012!

He'd be in around 20 for me.

And Patrick Peterson is way way way too high at 12. Just because a guy is a supremely gifted athlete doesn't mean he's a supreme CB. That guy gets worked plenty.

Thanks for posting. Glad to see Joe getting more love.

I disagree w/you about Wilson. The guy reminds me of freaking Fran Tarkenton---I know I misspelled that. And no, I did not pimp him before the draft, but the cat can play.

he can play, but is he more valuable (including his contract) than all other players in the NFL except Aaron Rodgers?

Anyone is Seattle would say yes lol...

Kid can ball, no doubt about it... watching his highlights, he can virtually throw every pass and has great scoot and scramble abilities. Excellent moving around in the pocket too to buy himself a little extra time. Like I said, he can ball... I'd trade all three of our QB's for him, no hesitations...

Joe GOAThomas again. Also can't wait for Russell Wilson to have a soph slump, not a believer in him at all. People forget that they were debating benching him halfway through the year for Matt
Flynn.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000...play-matt-flynn

http://seattletimes.com/html/thebrewery/2019309355_seahawks_must_scrutinize_russe.html

that article does not help my trust of Michael Lombardi

I would take Luck over Wilson.

Why?

Yeah that's just off. I think part of it is that he outplayed his draft position significantly and may appear to be even better than he actually is. I think #2 in the NFL is laughable.

Anyway it's fun to see some of the close ones and chuckle. Can you imagine Arizona calling up the Giants to see about a trade of Patrick Peterson for Eli Manning.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

That phone would get hung up instantly. And if it was flipped Arizona couldn't say yes fast enough. Yet Peterson is at 12 and Eli is at 13.

Wilson really seemed to excel when things went into backyard football mode. Often times he was searching for it breaking the pocket early.

I think he is being way overrated and will have a sophomore slump. I really think teams will contain him this year and make him play from the pocket. There is a whole year of tape on him now.

I think Seattle is being way overrated in general.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Russell Wilson, but if you want to know the secret to his success, it's 315 carries for 1,590 yards with 11 TD's at a 5.0 clip.

Marshawn Lynch is the key to that offense.

Wow. Totally disagree w/this post.

Wison made that team go on offense. And I think Seattle is probably the second best team in the entire NFL right now, trailing only SF.

I have to say that I think the offense went through Marshawn Lynch too and that opened it up for Wilson. Lynch was a beast and kept chains moving. Wilson was great extending plays and making teams pay in scramble mode...a lot like Roethlisberger except for outside the pocket.

Just to have it out there....these are his weekly yardage totals:

153
151
130
160

Yikes nice 1st quarter of the year! Do you think Browns fans would have pitchforks or torches in their hands...they were 2-2 at the time so probably neither..but it'd be close!

221
293
122
236
173
188
224
293
148
205
171
250

TOTAL: 3,118 (26TDs & 10 INTs very good)

Just for comparison sake

Brandon Weeden (with one fewer game)

TOTAL: 3,385 (14TDs & 17 INTs not very good)

But it should be pretty obvious that Lynch is the guy that stirs that drink not the other way around.

i guess i'm a bit different in that I firmly believe their defense is what made that team go and what helped pile up the blowouts at the end of the year.

Wilson sure helped and more than Lynch. how many years did Lynch do better than 4.2YPC before Wilson? then, he jumps up to 5.0YPC w/ him. Wilson (and the spread) get some credit there.

j/c:

Did you guys watch Seattle last year? Lynch has always been a good back, but their record improved quite a bit. Wilson was a difference maker. I can't be swayed on that one.

With that said, their entire team is very good. The defense is outstanding. They just needed a pass rusher and I believe they signed Avril.

That team was built properly. They stunk just like we did and their new guys came in the same time H and H did. Look at them. Look at us. Bet Seattle fans our glad their management turned down The Big Show's very public campaigning to be rehired. Me, I wish they would have rehired the big, blustery ego maniac.

No I didn't see any Seahawks games.

I just wanted to put a fresh hot take out there. And I brought it strong.

Held, the thing about Wilson is that he has that magical "it" quality. He just makes plays when he needs to make them. He's a very bright guy. His personality is infectious. He has that magic about him that makes a difference in tight games.