DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Underestimated or Overestimated

Right with you there.

I was excited. I mean, really, expecting Baker to play like he had the previous season, with Chubb and Hunt, with Landry, and Beckham........my thoughts were "no one can stop us. Our d might need some help, but our O will overcome that."

Turns out, I was wrong. Again.

I overestimated them last year. Kool-aid OD (again). I am a fan, but have dialed it back. Surprise me. Win.

We have better talent to take on our division IMO. Not sure we have enough to take them down. We were lousy despite some favorable matchups last year. This year will be tougher.

Wait and see. I am not crazy fired up this year. That can happen when I see more. Less Freddie should mean more scoring and more wins.

Just win, baby!

I was overestimating last year ... I felt like we finally had a FQB and a generational type offense (and we still might)

This year it’s wait and see ... I am optimistic that our offense will be improved tho

Last year I thought we would be better and win 9 games. I was wrong and disappointed like everyone else. I'll stick with the 9 wins again this year and an outside shot of the playoffs.

Last year I said we would be good if Baker was good. He wasn't and the Browns weren't.

The NFL isn't some big mystery. Owner, coach, QB. If those three are good, you'll be good and in contention every year.

There's not much hope for Haslam. Let's hope Stefanski and Baker can make it 2 out of 3.

I will also add that I believe the Ravens take a step back this year. They are really playing with fire with Lamar as well. It would not surprise me if he got hurt. I saw him take multiple really crushing hits last year. That is not sustainable.

And I think Burrow is being way overrated. I have no concerns about the Bengals one iota. Should be 2 wins there.

I hope Stefanski and Baker prove to be the answers as well ... and I agree about Haslam haha

Freddie got 6 wins as a coach that no one on the team, players and other coaches, believed in.

Stefanski honestly just has to not be a moron and the Browns should win 10 games. Actually I've never seen an easier schedule. If Stefanski is good we might win 12. If Lamar gets hurt we are probably playing KC in the AFC championship.

I was happy earlier in the year when the national sentiment was "same old Browns." But recently the media has started the hype for Stefanski bringing in the Vikings O scheme because it's the 'perfect' fit for Baker...plus the free agent and draft results being great for the O. Shut up already!

I'm from Missouri, just Show Me.

I think we need three things. They are the same three things I said last year.

1. At least average play by our qb.

2. Our coaching staff has to be at least average, as well.

3. Team chemistry needs to mesh in a positive manner early and not fall apart if #s 1 and 2 falter again. Also, it's probably even more important for the team's chemistry to get off to a good start. We can't start off 1 and 3 or 2 and 4 and expect the chemistry to be good.

With no off-season programs and installs, it's going to be difficult for a new coaching staff to win right away.

What's the question?

I don't think we're either.

I think that with the challenges of this offseason, pretty much every team everywhere is simply focused on itself right now.

Until the record proves otherwise, this is the same 4-12, 5-11 team it's been for years. I refuse to buy into the hype this year.

I feel this year is a one off. Nothing normal. If the nfl has anything resembling a normal season I will be surprised.

Well, I'm just about as confused as I've ever been. I wanna be optimistic, I'm trying to be.

So here are my + and -

+ Baker will come back,, better coaching will help
+

I think once the new coaching staff effect has stabilized, we'll find that our defense will be holding us back quite a bit. We have some talent, but there are big holes (or at least question marks) in that unit that will show when we're playing against better teams.

I'm thinking/hoping that our offense won't also be holding us back.

j/c

I expected 8-8 last year and have the same expectation for this year.

I've re-watched the Bills and Dolphins games from last year - don't ask me why...I don't really have an answer. The Bills game is especially interesting to me...and frustrating. It was sort of a picture of the entire year.

We did a lot of good things in that game...some very good. We stunk at a lot of things in that game. We were very inconsistent. Chubb, Hunt and Landry simply do their jobs...and do them very well. Baker makes some outstanding throws...and had a few really bad throws. OBJ dropped so many passes I lost count...and made a couple GREAT catches. The defense was pretty good...until it wasn't. The herky-jerky flow to our performance summarized our entire season.

I'm posting these comments here because I can't help but think while watching these games that we were not so far from being a good, competitive team...while being light years away from being a good, competitive team.

I think the roster has gotten better...maybe much better. I can only hope that the coaching will be better as well.

I think the key to success in 2020 will be left to how the coaches handle the team and games. A close second will be the play of Baker - which will depend in-part on how the coaches handle the team and game planning.

I'm less worried about the LB room than I am how the coaches do their jobs. We were close - but far - last year. The roster got better...the coaching got changed...again.

I think we will be largely underestimated as I don't think the national talking heads are nearly as tuned-in to the team as are Browns fans. What I'm driving at is that we were a better collection-of-players last year than we actually played. Something was holding us back...and I don't think it was entirely the players...even those who have already been upgraded since last year.

When you meld new coaches and systems with new OTs and have new Ss and young LBs...and a virus shutdown...I don't see how anyone can get so optimistic to the point of over-estimating the results.

J/c

One big concern from last year ... our defense was bad and/or folded once Myles was gone. The games at Arizona and against Cincy were pretty bad performances ... that was a sign of a team with no chemistry or unity.

Maybe it was just the culmination of a tough year and a bad coach ... well find out

The offense absolutely got better.

The defense absolutely got worse.

Defense, how so?

We added Billings, Clayborn & Elliott. On paper, these are solid depth additions to stop the run & help the pass rush.

Garrett, full season & should be even better with an extra year of strength & experience.

Ogunjobi, playing for a new contract, can't hurt, while Richardson back playing inside is solid.

I feel when healthy, Vernon is a plus player. If he's not in the cards, look for a high profile replacement.

I'll give you the question at LB. They need to step up & show development. Besides, I don't think the Browns are done there yet. Once things get rolling, we might see a few veterans come in for physicals. I can also see a trade or cut pickup if the staff don't feel comfortable.

I like our secondary. Ward, Williams, Mitchell & Johnson look to be a very good foundation with some new faces that could surprise.

Joseph can tackle, Delpit can cover, with Sendejo's experience can't hurt. I'm still on the fence with Redwine though.

I also like how SF's D looked last year. I'm willing to bet we look very much better & organized.

My biggest concern would be Team Tackling, hopefully. this will be the coaching group that will make it a priority.

Overall, there are many on the D that should be motivated & focused for a variety of reasons. As long as the injury bug doesn't hit us hard, I feel we have a good chance at respectability.

There are a lot of things that go against us this year. Things that are actually out of anyone's control. Things that give established teams with established systems a big advantage while giving teams with new HC's a distinct disadvantage.

This virus takes away valuable time that teams with new HC's and staffs need to install new systems. Established teams do have new players on their rosters, but those teams have many players that were on the roster last year and prior years. Those players already know the current system and have the ability to work with those new players. Stefanski has never been a HC before and as such, we have zero players that have played within his system with which to lean on to teach any of the other players.

The contract between the NFL and the NFLPA limit practice times and the amount of time coaches can work with the players. The longer these virus restrictions play out, the further behind teams with new HC's will become in working to install these new systems. That puts teams such as ourselves at a huge disadvantage.

As such, Stefanski and his staff are certainly behind the eight ball here through no fault of their own. As per usual, I'll be looking much closer at the second half of the season than the first half. Why? Because as per usual we have an entire new regime. And under the virus restrictions, I consider it unrealistic to expect much in the first half of the season.

With any new regime, installing new systems on both sides of the ball takes time. Under the current circumstances, the time it will take will be even longer. I would look at 8-8 as a very successful season under the circumstances.

Some will say I'm giving Stefanski and company a built in excuse, when the fact is, with the coronavirus it's the built in reality.

Just don't go expecting us to have their results, at least not right away.

I'd expect something between the 2018 and 2019 49ers Defense... .which, is pretty much middle-of-the-road.

TQI WDYAM FQB, POC, BA and nicknames, nobody knows WYM;
Whether it's VG,TT, JFF, RAC, PP who is JJ, or Dropcutt, if it's going to take me 5 minutes to figure out WTAM, then just type it.

A= ackronym(s)

The Browns are a 4, 5, or 6 win team, and 2 of those are probably because Myles and Baker or Chubb, ie, the players stud out that week.

It's dysfunctional, and it's not realistic to think a new coach is going to have the instant rapport and respect of his key personalities he coaches, neither realistic to think the same coach will have a shared vision (100%) with what the previous group had for the plan of using personel and gameplans,
To the point it's unrealistic to think you'll get any of your 3 must haves Vers until they decide to stick with a plan for continuity.

And Rishuz, the Ravens are probably much improved over last year, wouldn't be surprised to see em win the Super Bowl this year, except for if you look at Pat Mahommes' abilitys to make things happen,
and Andy Reids long term experience, it's like 2 things that are peaking and really hard to overcome.

I still think Bill Bellichic is the smartest man in football at the moment, #2, Tony Dungy isn't coaching #3, may still be Bill Cowher imo, don't know haven't given it much thought but the Patriots could be right back in the Super Bowl even without Gronk, Brady, they don't need their 2 receivers either,
It's possible the Patriots could be back there in a jiffy.

And the AFC South, For 2 years running, when the season got into crunch time of the regular season, the last 7 weeks of the regular season, all 3 of whoever wasn't in the basement of that division race suddenly became juggernaughts to beat, to the point to make me believe 3 of those franchises are in a position of determination and continuity
to really make a run

... Browns are a 4,5, or 6 win team, Unless Stefanski is lightning in a bottle or gets ligntning out of a bottle,
IMO, if they were going to go with Berry and Stefanski, might as well have kept Freddie and Dorsey,
Actually? Should have kept Pettine and Farmer, would have been coming up on their 8th year, plus continuity,
has anyone since then been notably, far and above, better than Pettine and Farmer would have been, with continuity? Maybe Dorsey, ehh what's the point of arguing.

j/c and a bit of a rant, but this is probably the best thread for it...

Building a great team:

1. Building a front office and coaching staff that understands and agrees on the protocol and time-table for the task at hand.
2. Drafting, acquiring and cultivating talent.
3. Designing a scheme that fits the talent and experience of the players you put on the field. Adjusting the scheme for injuries, opponents and miscalculated probabilities of success.
4. Creating a culture and depth of talent that bridges the gap between "good", on any given Sunday, and "plug and play" (i.e. the Patriots and their never ending list of average players that over-achieve).

For two decades we've been stuck on #1 and #2.
For two seasons we've been stuck on #3.
Now we've (again) put the cart before the horse and returned to #1... Hoping that #1 and #3 will work itself out because of #2.
Certainly not the ideal way to accomplish the goal.

"Great expectations" at the end of 2018 led to the entire sports world overestimating the team's success in 2019.

"Shell-shock" had led to many underestimating the team's success in 2020.

And then the curve ball... Trying to install an entirely new FO, coaching staff, and scheme, in a world where people are freaking quarantined in their own homes.

So even if #1 is what is required for this recipe, and assuming #2 is a given, #3 requires repetition, experience and a lot of ongoing adjustments and layers of "nuance" before it is successful... Because of Covid, we'll be doing it on the fly and flying by the seat of our pants (as usual).

If our "install" resembles anything from last season (infighting and arguing about the process mere weeks before the season) we're in big trouble - and probably staring down the barrel of 6-10.

If we are able to KISS (keep it simple, stupid), start off on the right foot, get a few lucky breaks, and see coherence from the top down - 10-6 and playoffs are possible.

I'll split the difference and say we are probably an 8-8 team. Anything above that will be above my "expectations".

What I do know, and what anyone worth their salt in our organization had better know, is that success in the long term means we better be well into #4 before we start signing these high-dollar, long-term contracts.

I'm optimistic not unrealistic.

A move in the right direction is what I'm looking for. It would be great if Woods could improve on that.

I'll take slightly better than middle of the road for starters.

Again, just being a better tackling defence would improve our chances over past seasons.

J/c

I’ve wondered this out loud before ... maybe just half seriously, but in today’s NFL world would it be better to just put like 80% of your assets/cap geared towards Offense ... OL, depth, TEs, etc ... because the league is so geared towards offense anyways with penalties ... a defense is at such a disadvantage as it is.

Might as well just try to control the game on O and make them out score you without making mistakes

I think history shows that plan can work in the regular season, but when playoffs come, you have to be able to stop good offenses. There's an old saying; offense wins games, defense wins championships.

I had VERY high opinions of both Schobert and Randall (not his attitude), and was very pleased with our SS play before guys started dropping like flies.

Long story short, I'm down on the defense because we lost some good to very good vets and replaced them with (IMO) middling vets and draft picks.

*I should've prefaced that by saying I rarely expect anything out of non-first rounder rookies. Double that for specific positions (defensive secondary being one).

So I think with the losses to our LB corps and safety positions, I expect our D to take a step back. Our line didn't change much, imo. We should be able to handle guys getting banged up with the upgraded depth, though.

It's impossible to properly rate the Browns since '99.

My mantra has been "It's not THAT we lose, it's HOW we lose."

Honestly the years we went 1-31 were the easiest for me as a fan. We stunk. We knew we stunk. We wanted to stink.

It's years like last two where we actually WERE good. Then the media overhypes us, we have in fighting between coaches leading to BOTH getting fired and a first time head coach gets promoted from RB coach, and then of course who can predict the Myles Garrett helmet hit???

Even if Garrett could've played we at least beat the Steelers probably, for the first sweep since '99 and the first time we beat every division opponent, and possibly even 8-8 and we move on building upwards.

In the past our issue has been talent only a few times, usually it's Drugs, Staph Infections, Helmet tosses, Bad Refs, etc and so on.

It's a fool's errand to try to predict the Browns success.

Losing Sho and Randall doesn't help anything, but I don't think it hurts all that much.

I read somewhere that Woods actually wants to transition in to a dime as our base D. Phillips might be the guy we are looking at to be the one backer on the field. Maybe not this year so much, but moving forward.

I've seen this story before
Browns hire 1st year HC. Team starts out 2-4
Or 1 and 5. Shows improvement middle of season
But finishes in 3rd or last.
The last Browns HC that had anykind of a winning
Record that fired in favor of a real Gomer
Of a HC.
Think about GW puts out a winning record
And he gets fired
I'm not buying into the Browns this year.
I think every game will be close.
But at the end of the day the North is just too
Darn talented.
And in this division it comes down to coaching
And since 1999 the Browns have never had the the
Best coach In the North or the best QB.
The Ravens are a playoff lock.
Big Ben has enough left in his arm to put
Points on the board.and a always great defense
And the Bengals have a franchise type QB to
Go along with a stacked offense.
Plus 2nd year under Taylor.
And the Browns. New coach new philosophy
And learning on the job.
Same story since 1999

I'm sitting here nodding my head in agreement and chuckling while reading that post. How many games have we lost and said something like..."well, that's yet another new and unique way to lose a game". It's maddening.

I think we could count on ONE hand the number of seasons where we were able to come away with a reasonable ability to rate the team...ever STR. Much of that comes from our disastrous track record on picking a QB...probably tied with the turnover from our disastrous track record of picking a HC+.

2019 was no exception because we STILL don't "know" what we have (exactly)...and the systems and many key players are new...again...and some guys we DID know on defense are now gone.

I think the difference (for me) when "rating" the 2019 season is that we clearly had a fair amount of talent. We could execute well at times...until we executed ourselves.

The OL got better talent...much better. The TE position got much better. Hunt will be a full year guy. The WR room is excellent. We have a QB who should be somewhere between good and great.

The DL line is crazy better...the LBs are scary...but we really only lost Shobert there (not a small loss)...the DBs are largely returning with (likely) better depth and the Ss look better/deeper or equal.

If the coaching is 25% better (pulling that # out of my rear) than last year...we should expect to be at least an 8-8 team...if we are in position in the 4th quarter in every game (which will require much better coaching than last year), I like our chances of even beating that record. Today? I'm sticking with 8-8...while not feeling like I'm low-balling or being pessimistic.

Honestly, as long as Baker doesn't struggle, I think the O will come along a lot quicker than that. The entire O revolves around the blocking and formations.... I think it will click pretty quickly, especially for guys like Bitonio that have already been in it previously.

Defensively....it's a mystery and I'm not as sold on guys like Greedy & Sendejo as some others may be. Greedy still has a lot to prove and Sendejo is clearly a short-term band-aid. If they, and Delpit & Joseph, work out as hoped, then this could be an All-Star secondary. If not, it could be Swiss Cheese.... and the defense will go the way they go.