This storm looks to become a major hurricane tomorrow. NHC just put out on twitter that they are expecting to start issuing Hurricane Watches tomorrow night. Taking aim at major metropolitan areas (general area around Philly) in the Northeast United States as of this morning. Still a few days out.
Hurricane Joaquin Prompts Warnings in Bahamas; U.S. East Coast Landfall Possible
Published Sep 30 2015 11:56 AM EDT
Jaquin vs Sandy: Similar or Different?
Meteorologist Bonnie Schneider describes the differences between Sandy and Joaquin.
Hurricane Joaquin became the 2015 Atlantic season's third hurricane Wednesday morning, and hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for the Bahamas while we nervously eye its potential to affect the U.S. East Coast.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft measured sufficiently strong flight-level winds and low surface pressure to prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Joaquin Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters found a 55-mile-wide eye, but it was open on its north side – meaning that robust thunderstorms had not fully encircled the Joaquin's center of circulation.
Hurricane Joaquin continues to intensify slowly, as wind shear – harmful to the intensification of tropical cyclones – lessens, and a complicated atmospheric pattern makes its future track – including any potential landfall on the U.S. East Coast – extremely difficult to forecast.
Hurricane Joaquin Information
Hurricane Joaquin Information
The latest statistics as provided by NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
Residents along the East Coast of the U.S. should pay close attention to the forecast now through this weekend. It's a particularly difficult forecast that hinges on the behavior of several different atmospheric features over North America and the North Atlantic Ocean.
Computer forecast models – and the meteorologists who rely on them for guidance – are grappling with a complex interaction between Joaquin, a cold front near the East Coast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, a strong bubble of high pressure aloft over the North Atlantic Ocean, and a potentially strong area of low pressure aloft digging into the southeastern U.S. later this week.
Ensemble Forecast Model Tracks
Ensemble Forecast Model Tracks
The lines on this graphic represent several of the many ensemble track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but models such as these are often used as guidance for creating the projected path for a storm.
Joaquin's future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players – not to mention its own strength. Strong wind shear had kept most of Joaquin's thunderstorm activity (convection) south or east of its center of circulation, but that changed Tuesday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms developed closer to its circulation center.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Visible Satellite
Visible Satellite
During daylight hours, you will see the clouds more or less as they would look to the naked eye from space. At night, it's too dark to see the clouds, so this image will display infrared satellite data instead.
Because Joaquin is strengthening and drifting ever closer to the Bahamas, the government of that country has issued a hurricane warning for many of its central islands, and hurricane watches for several others. Specifically: •A hurricane warning is in effect for Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador. •A hurricane watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island.
Watches, Warnings
Watches, Warnings
This map shows any watches and warnings in effect. Warnings mean those conditions are expected in 36 hours or less. Watches mean those conditions are possible in 48 hours or less.
Joaquin is expected to slowly churn toward the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. The extent of the effects on those islands will depend heavily on how close it gets and how much time it spends nearby before making the anticipated northward turn.
Although computer model simulations run Tuesday evening had the advantage of ingesting high-resolution real-world data from the Air Force reconnaissance flight earlier in the day, it doesn't seem to have brought them any closer to a consensus.
The American GFS model forecast showed Joaquin making an alarming northwestward turn, slamming it right into Virginia and Maryland this weekend. Meanwhile, the European ECMWF model showed Joaquin staying well away from the U.S. East Coast, and eventually curving out into the North Atlantic well off the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada.
It is simply too soon and the uncertainty is too high to determine any impacts from Joaquin itself for the U.S. East Coast at this time.
The National Hurricane Center's official forecast cone is below. The official forecast remains a compromise between the competing scenarios from the computer models. Note that the official intensity forecast now brings Joaquin to Category 3 strength on Saturday morning, which by definition would make it a major hurricane.
(MAP: Track Hurricane Joaquin with our New Interactive Storm Tracker)
Projected Path
Projected Path
Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin's path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding. Click the link below for more information on that story.
Some of the atmospheric forces at play over eastern North America and the western Atlantic Ocean Friday through this weekend.
In summary, here's what we know about Joaquin as of Wednesday's 11 a.m. EDT advisory: •Tropical Storm Joaquin's center is located about 215 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas. •Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph, a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. •As wind shear over the storm lessens, Joaquin should strengthen further the next 2 to 3 days. •This system is moving slowly to the west-southwest and this is expected to continue through Thursday before turning north Friday into Saturday. •Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for parts of the Bahamas. Nassau and Freeport are under a hurricane watch. •Joaquin may directly or indirectly affect the East Coast late this weekend or early next week, and a landfall cannot be ruled out. •Moisture and/or energy associated with Joaquin could enhance rainfall along the cold front in the Northeast late this week. Regardless, the East Coast will see significant impacts from the larger scale weather pattern taking shape.
I have been asked, a lot of times, "Why do you stick around Youngstown? You could move to Florida, where you have relatives, or you could have moved to NYC right out of school. Why are you here?"
Well, besides a really low cost of living, even in really nice parts of town, we don't get hurricanes, monsoons, I don't sweat all year round. We might get snow a couple of times/winter, and have an occasional tornado, but for the most part, the weather is moderate. We don't get the plagues of locusts some places get ..... there are no huge snakes lurking. (at least not the reptile kind)
I'll stay in Youngstown, thank you very much.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
Oh man, I wonder how flooded my property will be if it makes its way here. The Tuscarawas runs through my property. This was last spring when the snow all thawed out in the span of a day or two. I'm standing in my driveway, and the water you see may not look bad but it's easily 5x wider than normal. Most of the water is over parts of the yard I mow...
Between this and the severe ice/slush I've been looking to upgrade my Saab 9-3 to either a Ford FX4/Raptor or Ram Power Wagon. The Saab got stuck many times. And you may say "oh just get anything with 4WD you'd be fine" well we once called a tow truck to get the saab out, and the tow truck needed to call a tow! That's how bad our driveway gets. So I want something with at least a locking differential and locking tcase in addition to 4WD
I doubt that it'll end up being anything significant at all.
Right now it still doesn't even have a well formed eye and it could quite easily turn full north & east and head back out to sea and never even come close to the east coast, much less have its outer bands touch us (if it even gets big enough for that).
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
I doubt that it'll end up being anything significant at all.
Right now it still doesn't even have a well formed eye and it could quite easily turn full north & east and head back out to sea and never even come close to the east coast, much less have its outer bands touch us (if it even gets big enough for that).
Yeah, but that doesn't lend itself very well to "Hurricane!!! It's coming!!!"
I doubt that it'll end up being anything significant at all.
Right now it still doesn't even have a well formed eye and it could quite easily turn full north & east and head back out to sea and never even come close to the east coast, much less have its outer bands touch us (if it even gets big enough for that).
Yeah, but that doesn't lend itself very well to "Hurricane!!! It's coming!!!"
Maybe there's a bit more seriousness to it than I thought:
Dear IRONMAN Maryland Athletes, Due to projected flooding from abnormally high tides, heavy rain, wind, and the expected impact of Hurricane Joaquin, IRONMAN Maryland will not take place this Saturday. Given the severity of the expected weather conditions, which may – depending on the path of Joaquin – require the evacuation of certain coastal regions on the Delmarva peninsula, we can not guarantee that public safety officials will able to provide the support necessary for the safe execution of our event. The safety of our athletes, volunteers, spectators, and staff is our number one priority. We are asking all athletes to not travel to Maryland since forecasts expect heavy weather impact in the area. We are tentatively planning and have tentative approval to have the race take place on Saturday, October 17; however, no final decision can be made until the effects of the storm are fully assessed. We appreciate your understanding and will be in further communication with you by 6 p.m. EST next Tuesday.
I do not think that with the blocking high out in the Atlantic, that this will go out to sea.
000 WTNT41 KNHC 302055 TCDAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory intensity is now 75 kt.
The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours, taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the guidance.
There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours, possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear, cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and the start of extratropical transition.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.
2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.
3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings.
4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend.
5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening.
6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.
Oh man, I wonder how flooded my property will be if it makes its way here. The Tuscarawas runs through my property. This was last spring when the snow all thawed out in the span of a day or two. I'm standing in my driveway, and the water you see may not look bad but it's easily 5x wider than normal. Most of the water is over parts of the yard I mow...
Between this and the severe ice/slush I've been looking to upgrade my Saab 9-3 to either a Ford FX4/Raptor or Ram Power Wagon. The Saab got stuck many times. And you may say "oh just get anything with 4WD you'd be fine" well we once called a tow truck to get the saab out, and the tow truck needed to call a tow! That's how bad our driveway gets. So I want something with at least a locking differential and locking tcase in addition to 4WD
Instead of buying a new car elevate your driveway so that its a non issue. a few truck loads of gravel can be a heck of a lot cheaper than a new car. then just put a concrete edge to it so the gravel stay in place and it keeps the water out.
You can't fix stupid but you can destroy ignorance. When you destroy ignorance you remove the justifications for evil. If you want to destroy evil then educate our people. Hate is a tool of the stupid to deal with what they can't understand.
The weather is so sensationalized these days. Growing up, a thunderstorm was no big deal. Today, they act like you'll die if you go outside during a thunderstorm.
They want to compare this thing to Sandy, I'll believe it when I see it.
It's supposed to be hard! If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. The hard... is what makes it great!
Instead of buying a new car elevate your driveway so that its a non issue. a few truck loads of gravel can be a heck of a lot cheaper than a new car. then just put a concrete edge to it so the gravel stay in place and it keeps the water out.
I would be on board with that! But I don't know if it's feasible. Half of our driveway is shared with a neighbor. It runs through a swamp on both sides, and I did speak with a few folks who do earth moving, who said that it would be difficult to keep anything permanent there. Hence gravel. It does look in places to have been asphalt at one time, but broke up into large pieces and then was laid over with gravel. Our house sits a good 50' or more above the river, so no worries on the house itself. We get flooding because there is a weir just downstream of our property, so anytime there is excess water, it backs up to us at the benefit of those downstream
Actually more than the flooding is the snow and ice in winter. Here was our `driveway` 9 months ago:
Having a 1500' long driveway is awesome until there's a foot of packed snow on it. Twice the Saab got stuck not because of ice on the tires, but because it high centered! I'm not going to buy a car this winter. If the mother in law buys a vehicle she will lend us her 4x4 Colorado and well buy her new tires. If that falls through, I'll put some snow tires on the Saab. If you have any more tips I'd love to hear em though
So you need to build an elevated wooden bridge driveway/walkway.
Think how cool that would be, lit up on both sides, maybe do sequential LEDs down the sides so it's like your on a runway when you are coming home.
And acquaintance of mine had like a 200ft driveway, with stone walls (1-2' high) on each side, he lined them with fiber optics, and had sensors on them. So when he drive down the driveway, the optics would light up light 25' in front of him, and darken behind him, following him down the drive.
It was the coolest looking thing.
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
If you have any more tips I'd love to hear em though
Move into civilation. You don't need Ted Kaczynski, and Grizzly Adams for neighbors.
One of the best parts of the house is how I get my privacy while living near the city. I'm only 3.4 miles from Home Depot, Walmart, IHop, Hibachi, Autozone, and many many other shops and restaurants. Downtown Akron is 11 miles away. A friend of mine from Chicago is coming in next month and wants to check out Rippers Rock House in Akron and that's only 8 miles from me.
Frankly I feel less isolated here than I did in high school when my parents lived in Medina. Akron was 30 minutes away and Cleveland 45 minutes away.
So you need to build an elevated wooden bridge driveway/walkway.
Think how cool that would be, lit up on both sides, maybe do sequential LEDs down the sides so it's like your on a runway when you are coming home.
And acquaintance of mine had like a 200ft driveway, with stone walls (1-2' high) on each side, he lined them with fiber optics, and had sensors on them. So when he drive down the driveway, the optics would light up light 25' in front of him, and darken behind him, following him down the drive.
It was the coolest looking thing.
When I pave my driveway, I'm not sure if I'll spring for the stone walls and lights, but I'll definitely spring for heating elements under the road, so it stays cleared off in winter time
So you need to build an elevated wooden bridge driveway/walkway.
Think how cool that would be, lit up on both sides, maybe do sequential LEDs down the sides so it's like your on a runway when you are coming home.
And acquaintance of mine had like a 200ft driveway, with stone walls (1-2' high) on each side, he lined them with fiber optics, and had sensors on them. So when he drive down the driveway, the optics would light up light 25' in front of him, and darken behind him, following him down the drive.
It was the coolest looking thing.
When I pave my driveway, I'm not sure if I'll spring for the stone walls and lights, but I'll definitely spring for heating elements under the road, so it stays cleared off in winter time
If you have the land to do it, you can do this relatively inexpensively with geothermal heating.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
So you need to build an elevated wooden bridge driveway/walkway.
Think how cool that would be, lit up on both sides, maybe do sequential LEDs down the sides so it's like your on a runway when you are coming home.
And acquaintance of mine had like a 200ft driveway, with stone walls (1-2' high) on each side, he lined them with fiber optics, and had sensors on them. So when he drive down the driveway, the optics would light up light 25' in front of him, and darken behind him, following him down the drive.
It was the coolest looking thing.
When I pave my driveway, I'm not sure if I'll spring for the stone walls and lights, but I'll definitely spring for heating elements under the road, so it stays cleared off in winter time
You should check out those new solar panels that you can drive on.. you could get the driveway done, they are self-heating so there would never be shoveling or ice, and you could cut your electric bill all year.. go for it.
yes, I've been anxiously watching that project to see if it gets funded... I'm a big fan of living off grid (or at least augmenting it)
They have been receiving funding from the internet, it's really fascinating. Heck, give them a call, tell them what it would cost to build your driveway out of asphalt and that is what you are willing to give them. If they will do it for that, they can use you as a test subject.
The weather is so sensationalized these days. Growing up, a thunderstorm was no big deal. Today, they act like you'll die if you go outside during a thunderstorm.
Yeah, any cloud cover automatically triggers a "Storm watch 2015" event on the Weather Channel or your local news. I don't know if they're doing it to raise awareness because they're truly concerned or it's simply to boost ratings, probably a mix of both with a heavy influence on ratings.
“...Iguodala to Curry, back to Iguodala, up for the layup! Oh! Blocked by James! LeBron James with the rejection!”
From what I'm hearing, the "hurricane" part of this (wind, lightning, tornadoes) is not supposed to be so bad.. but it is supposed to dump a crap load of rain, Raleigh area expecting upwards of 9" and I've heard some places like Charleston closer to 15".. I've heard that an inch of rain is about a foot of snow... so, yikes.
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