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Yes, and I get that they add extra reads to those core plays, but that is still miles away from Pro concepts. So are most of the "pro" offenses that college teams run. The point is that Goff is going to be in film room until he knows what to do. And then after that he will still be in the film room to master what he knows. "Spread" QBs have been succeeding in the NFL for years. Just multiply the plays by about 100 and complicate the reads by a factor of 5 and you'll go from this system to a pro system. Again I'm not faulting Goff he thrived in the system that he was in. But reading that doesn't make me think he is more capable of starting right away, it just makes me worry more. Why can other spread QBs succeed in their first year, but not Goff? I am not saying that he can't. I am saying that the odds aren't good if you are expecting it.
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Yes, and I get that they add extra reads to those core plays, but that is still miles away from Pro concepts. So are most of the "pro" offenses that college teams run. The point is that Goff is going to be in film room until he knows what to do. And then after that he will still be in the film room to master what he knows. "Spread" QBs have been succeeding in the NFL for years. Just multiply the plays by about 100 and complicate the reads by a factor of 5 and you'll go from this system to a pro system. Again I'm not faulting Goff he thrived in the system that he was in. But reading that doesn't make me think he is more capable of starting right away, it just makes me worry more. Why can other spread QBs succeed in their first year, but not Goff? I am not saying that he can't. I am saying that the odds aren't good if you are expecting it. What are your odds based on?
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I've been trying to read these with Don Knotts' voice. It's not easy. 
1. #GMstrong
2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb
3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa
4. ClemenZa #1
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Yes, and I get that they add extra reads to those core plays, but that is still miles away from Pro concepts. So are most of the "pro" offenses that college teams run. The point is that Goff is going to be in film room until he knows what to do. And then after that he will still be in the film room to master what he knows. "Spread" QBs have been succeeding in the NFL for years. Just multiply the plays by about 100 and complicate the reads by a factor of 5 and you'll go from this system to a pro system. Again I'm not faulting Goff he thrived in the system that he was in. But reading that doesn't make me think he is more capable of starting right away, it just makes me worry more. Why can other spread QBs succeed in their first year, but not Goff? I am not saying that he can't. I am saying that the odds aren't good if you are expecting it. What are your odds based on? The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good. The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse. I could go on but I think you get the general idea.
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I've been trying to read these with Don Knotts' voice. It's not easy. It helps if you imagine him as a football coach 
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The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good.
The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse
The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse
The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse.
I could go on but I think you get the general idea. Sounds like you are using generalizations for something that should be judged on a case by case basis. It's cool. I like Goff and think he will succeed from day one. You don't. The best part is that we will get to see who is right (eventually).
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I guess somebody forgot to tell Carolina to pass on Cam Newton
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The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good.
The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse
The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse
The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse.
I could go on but I think you get the general idea. Sounds like you are using generalizations for something that should be judged on a case by case basis. It's cool. I like Goff and think he will succeed from day one. You don't. The best part is that we will get to see who is right (eventually). All I can do is generalizations at this point. I can't see him make a 5 step drop yet. I can't interview him and show him a pro play and ask him to explain the concept on the white board. I can't explain 3 plays to him quickly and ask him to explain it back to see what he picked up on. One thing the coaches and scouts won't even see is him make any pro style reads, because you can't simulate that in the combine or on a Pro Day. They will have to guess on that and find out if they are right on the practice field. All I can say on based on what others have done his odds are not good starting from day one. I can't be sure without all the info. I just don't understand how so many other guys are so positive he will be without the same info. I will say this, I was about as sure that Johnny wasn't a first year starter and although he might not have impressed me as being as smart as Goff, he has a better arm and more athletic ability. How did Johnny do in his first year?
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I guess somebody forgot to tell Carolina to pass on Cam Newton For every Cam Newton there are 3 Vince Youngs.
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The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good.
The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse
The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse
The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse.
I could go on but I think you get the general idea. Sounds like you are using generalizations for something that should be judged on a case by case basis. It's cool. I like Goff and think he will succeed from day one. You don't. The best part is that we will get to see who is right (eventually).
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
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The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good.
The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse
The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse
The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse.
I could go on but I think you get the general idea. Sounds like you are using generalizations for something that should be judged on a case by case basis. It's cool. I like Goff and think he will succeed from day one. You don't. The best part is that we will get to see who is right (eventually). I like him too PastorMarc. I'm just saying asking him to start right away is probably asking too much. I know everyone hates bad news but these guys are trying to sway me from what I believe to be true. Perhaps a sermon on Psalms 122:6-7 would help. I could use the support. LOL
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~ Legend
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Actually I'm just debating some bunk math and logic used to predict future NFL success. I really don't care what you believe. I just want the bunk "analytics" and sweeping generalizations to stop.
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I guess somebody forgot to tell Carolina to pass on Cam Newton For every Cam Newton there are 3 Vince Youngs. What does this even mean? Are you saying first overall picks who are QBs are only successful 25% of the time? Spread QBs? Black QBs?
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Actually I'm just debating some bunk math and logic used to predict future NFL success. I really don't care what you believe. I just want the bunk "analytics" and sweeping generalizations to stop. You don't know what you are debunking. You didn't even know Goff was a spread QB, till a little while ago. You can take up what you think is bunk analytics with foxsports and the author. I didn't write it and your arguments against it don't seem to make sense. I guess somebody forgot to tell Carolina to pass on Cam Newton For every Cam Newton there are 3 Vince Youngs. What does this even mean? Are you saying first overall picks who are QBs are only successful 25% of the time? Spread QBs? Black QBs? I didn't say anything about first overall picks. Wasn't Young like 3rd or 4th overall? I certainly didn't say anything about black QB's. What are you grasping for? I didn't even say anything about percentages. I just tried to put forth that for every QB that starts right away and is successful that a bunch aren't.
Last edited by DeputyDawg; 01/25/16 12:33 AM.
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I just tried to put forth that for every QB that starts right away and is successful that a bunch aren't. That is all I was looking for. And the same goes for the other way.
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I just tried to put forth that for every QB that starts right away and is successful that a bunch aren't. That is all I was looking for. And the same goes for the other way. Yes for the bunch of QB's that aren't successful when they start right away, some actually are.
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The law of averages says eventually we should get a good QB..
..right?
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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~ Legend
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Actually I'm just debating some bunk math and logic used to predict future NFL success. I really don't care what you believe. I just want the bunk "analytics" and sweeping generalizations to stop. You don't know what you are debunking. You didn't even know Goff was a spread QB, till a little while ago. You can take up what you think is bunk analytics with foxsports and the author. I didn't write it and your arguments against it don't seem to make sense. Please. No need to act so haughty. Goff, really isn't a "spread" QB, by today's standards. I know the formation is technically a spread offense, but again, most don't see it that way. His offense resembles much more of Kentucky's Tim Couch than it does of Auburn's Cam Newton (The "Spread QB" archetype). But yes, I did make the mistake of not taking you so literal. I think the Report that you listed cutting out a gigantic chunk of QB's is very telling of their "analytics" and their morals.
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~ Legend
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The law of averages says eventually we should get a good QB..
..right? Only if we sit them their entire career. That's the only way.
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I just tried to put forth that for every QB that starts right away and is successful that a bunch aren't. That is all I was looking for. And the same goes for the other way. Yes for the bunch of QB's that aren't successful when they start right away, some actually are. And for the bunch of QBs who aren't successful when they don't start right away, some actually are. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/113472...ams-coaches-gms"All I know is had I not thrown the ball as much as I did that year, and I've always kind of felt this way when people ask, I wouldn't have learned what I did," Manning has said. "I wouldn't have learned what you couldn't get away with playing against the good corners. ... And there's just no way I could have made the jump that I did in that second, third year without playing that much that year. The only way to find out is go out there and push it a little bit, see what works, see what doesn't, but you can't lose that ability to keep going in that situation." "I think the answer, it depends on what your internal perspective of your team is and what your evaluation of the temperament of your quarterback is," he said. "Not skill. I don't want to confuse skill in this. They're all talented enough.
"He's going to make some knucklehead mistakes, but [can the coach say] we're good enough to make up for it [on defense]. Or we're good enough at receiver to get open. Or we're good enough in the offensive line and running game that we can be a ball-control team and pick our spots when to throw. If that's your perspective then you can say, 'We can play a young quarterback.'" In trying to figure out whether a redshirt year actually helps a rookie quarterback, I sorted each of them by the combined Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value they had in their second and third seasons. The goal was to see whether most of the better quarterbacks in Years 2 and 3 started a majority of their games as rookies.
The results were mixed. Daunte Culpepper, Cam Newton, and Carson Palmer were all tied at the top with 32 AV combined in Years 2 and 3. Newton and Palmer were both primary starters as rookies. Culpepper spent his first season backing up Jeff George. Eli Manning, Kaepernick, and Donovan McNabb were all first-year backups who finished among the top 10, while Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan are still two of the best arguments for throwing rookies into the fire. There are a few examples that skew the results a bit. Andrew Luck has played only two seasons, but if he matched his Year 2 total next year, he’d be in the top five. Philip Rivers wasn’t a starter until his third season, but that season was one of the best debuts by any quarterback in NFL history.
The point is that based on performance, there’s really no straight answer to which route ends up making for better quarterbacks. Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn are tied near the bottom with 3 AV each. Leinart got the reins as a rookie. Quinn didn’t. The numbers there are about as helpful as they are with individual quarterbacks — so, not very. Since 1999, the teams that have sat their first- or second-round rookie quarterback for a majority of their games have won an average of 7.32 games. Teams that start theirs have won 7.16. It’s not a considerable difference, and each group has its share of extreme examples that might push the numbers one way or the other. It isn’t the most exciting conclusion, but I’d say that from these examples, it looks like a quarterback is going to succeed independent of whether he starts as a rookie. Situation seems to have more of an impact than time spent on the bench. Daunte Culpepper walked on to a team with Cris Carter and Randy Moss. That probably mattered more than learning the professional ropes from Jeff George. Carson Palmer went from 60.9 percent completions and a dead-even touchdown-to-interception ratio as a rookie to 67.8, 32 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his second year. In his case, spending 16 games getting a feel for professional football apparently helped.
There isn’t a right choice, and as teams do their best to spin the one they make over the next three months, that’s worth remembering. Whether Manziel, Bortles, and Carr are ready to start as rookies is one thing. Knowing there’s no defined path that will turn them into quality, long-term starters is another. You pretending you have some magic answer. No one knows.
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So, do we have any actual evidence to playing a QB actually hindering a player in a bad way from learning?
You can teach a player all you want on the practice field, but if it all falls apart on the playing field, then it doesn't matter.
People argue that there are a ton of QB's that fail after being thrown into the fire. Yeah. That's not a shock. There are maybe like 17-20 good NFL QB's, of course there is going to be a large majority of QB's who fail at first.
The point is, pick the right guy, and play him right away. If he is the right guy, he'll figure it out and likely it'll be better for him to start right away.
you had a good run Hank.
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The odds of finding a long term QB in the draft - Not Good.
The odds if you start him too early - Even Worse
The odds if you start him too early and have to teach him to drop back from center. - Even worse
The odds if you also have to teach him pro concepts and are still starting him too - Even worse.
I could go on but I think you get the general idea. Sounds like you are using generalizations for something that should be judged on a case by case basis. It's cool. I like Goff and think he will succeed from day one. You don't. The best part is that we will get to see who is right (eventually). Deputy talks about not expecting year one success and he's right. All the best didn't have year one success. You can expect that. Less than 60% completions is to be expected along with a pretty high int %. Year 2 we could expect into the low 60's completions and fewer int's. Year 3 is when the best take off and go above 65% and single digit picks. YPA increase proportionately. It's the nature of the beast. Of course those numbers can fluxuate. The ones with the mental make-up to fight through it are the ones that succeed. Keeping the offensive scheme in tact helps immensely. God Manning was lucky having the same coordinator for years. And we may just be set up for this to happen in Cleveland with Hue. Take Goff and don't look back. Kid has crazy work ethic.
Last edited by kwhip; 01/25/16 07:56 AM.
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j/c:
Man, this thread is yet another example of people wanting to win "the debate" rather than learning something.
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Nip It
You've got to nip it in the bud
Ask any coach out there and they are in favor of bud nipping
I like Wentz
#gmstrong
A smart person knows what to say.
A wise person knows whether or not to say it.
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I've been trying to read these with Don Knotts' voice. It's not easy. No, it's not. This is kind of reminding me of certain FPS games I used to play. When the graphics were smooth and responsive and my character was moving at a good clip I would sometimes feel something like vertigo. It was explained to me that is was mixed signals to the brain. My eyes, watching the realistic game play, were telling brain that I was in motion, while the rest of my body knew I was not in motion. The brain was not always able to reconcile the contradiction. Some people have it reverse when doing something like reading in the car. The body senses the motion but the eyes, concentrating on the book, are thinking the body is stationary. When I read Deputy's posts, I see the Barney Fife pic and automatically get a preconceived notion of what I am going to read, and hear it in Fife's voice. Then my brain sees the depth of knowledge, impressive vocabulary, etc. and has a hard time pairing that up with ol' Barn. Oh, and Dep, a while back towards the end of the season I compared giving Farmer the #1 pick in the draft to giving Barney Fife a rocket launcher, or something like that. Was not aimed at you!
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The law of averages says eventually we should get a good QB..
..right? LOL, actually we probably should have already, but yes. There are lots of good choices in this draft. None are sure things, but hardly any QB prospects are.
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Actually I'm just debating some bunk math and logic used to predict future NFL success. I really don't care what you believe. I just want the bunk "analytics" and sweeping generalizations to stop. You don't know what you are debunking. You didn't even know Goff was a spread QB, till a little while ago. You can take up what you think is bunk analytics with foxsports and the author. I didn't write it and your arguments against it don't seem to make sense. Please. No need to act so haughty. Goff, really isn't a "spread" QB, by today's standards. I know the formation is technically a spread offense, but again, most don't see it that way. His offense resembles much more of Kentucky's Tim Couch than it does of Auburn's Cam Newton (The "Spread QB" archetype). But yes, I did make the mistake of not taking you so literal. I think the Report that you listed cutting out a gigantic chunk of QB's is very telling of their "analytics" and their morals. He's A freakin spread QB! Stop reaching to prove your point. I get that you like him and news flash, Tim Couch was a spread QB too! A spread QB that we also put on the field too early. He actually had the skills to be a franchise QB, but was too beat up before we built a team around him for us to find out. As far as that article. Please point out 1 guy in that "big chunk" that wasn't good enough to start 5 games in a season that would have made a difference. Then take it up with Fox Sports and show them your math. I think that not starting week 1 is a far cry from not starting for his career. Your plan is like the toddler pulling on the power cord to the TV set and his dad saying "Let him drop it on his head a few times. He'll learn."
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I just tried to put forth that for every QB that starts right away and is successful that a bunch aren't. That is all I was looking for. And the same goes for the other way. Yes for the bunch of QB's that aren't successful when they start right away, some actually are. And for the bunch of QBs who aren't successful when they don't start right away, some actually are. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/113472...ams-coaches-gms"All I know is had I not thrown the ball as much as I did that year, and I've always kind of felt this way when people ask, I wouldn't have learned what I did," Manning has said. "I wouldn't have learned what you couldn't get away with playing against the good corners. ... And there's just no way I could have made the jump that I did in that second, third year without playing that much that year. The only way to find out is go out there and push it a little bit, see what works, see what doesn't, but you can't lose that ability to keep going in that situation." "I think the answer, it depends on what your internal perspective of your team is and what your evaluation of the temperament of your quarterback is," he said. "Not skill. I don't want to confuse skill in this. They're all talented enough.
"He's going to make some knucklehead mistakes, but [can the coach say] we're good enough to make up for it [on defense]. Or we're good enough at receiver to get open. Or we're good enough in the offensive line and running game that we can be a ball-control team and pick our spots when to throw. If that's your perspective then you can say, 'We can play a young quarterback.'" In trying to figure out whether a redshirt year actually helps a rookie quarterback, I sorted each of them by the combined Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value they had in their second and third seasons. The goal was to see whether most of the better quarterbacks in Years 2 and 3 started a majority of their games as rookies.
The results were mixed. Daunte Culpepper, Cam Newton, and Carson Palmer were all tied at the top with 32 AV combined in Years 2 and 3. Newton and Palmer were both primary starters as rookies. Culpepper spent his first season backing up Jeff George. Eli Manning, Kaepernick, and Donovan McNabb were all first-year backups who finished among the top 10, while Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan are still two of the best arguments for throwing rookies into the fire. There are a few examples that skew the results a bit. Andrew Luck has played only two seasons, but if he matched his Year 2 total next year, he’d be in the top five. Philip Rivers wasn’t a starter until his third season, but that season was one of the best debuts by any quarterback in NFL history.
The point is that based on performance, there’s really no straight answer to which route ends up making for better quarterbacks. Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn are tied near the bottom with 3 AV each. Leinart got the reins as a rookie. Quinn didn’t. The numbers there are about as helpful as they are with individual quarterbacks — so, not very. Since 1999, the teams that have sat their first- or second-round rookie quarterback for a majority of their games have won an average of 7.32 games. Teams that start theirs have won 7.16. It’s not a considerable difference, and each group has its share of extreme examples that might push the numbers one way or the other. It isn’t the most exciting conclusion, but I’d say that from these examples, it looks like a quarterback is going to succeed independent of whether he starts as a rookie. Situation seems to have more of an impact than time spent on the bench. Daunte Culpepper walked on to a team with Cris Carter and Randy Moss. That probably mattered more than learning the professional ropes from Jeff George. Carson Palmer went from 60.9 percent completions and a dead-even touchdown-to-interception ratio as a rookie to 67.8, 32 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his second year. In his case, spending 16 games getting a feel for professional football apparently helped.
There isn’t a right choice, and as teams do their best to spin the one they make over the next three months, that’s worth remembering. Whether Manziel, Bortles, and Carr are ready to start as rookies is one thing. Knowing there’s no defined path that will turn them into quality, long-term starters is another. You pretending you have some magic answer. No one knows. If Nobody knows, what is your "start him week one" plan based on? Don't you think picking Peyton Manning, (a guy everyone thought should have started week one) as an example for your argument as kind of cherry picking a bit? Daunte Culpepper is a perfect example of wasting a high draft pick and starting him too early. The guy had all the physical tools in the world and NFL size and was throwing to the two best WR's in the NFL in a dumbed down offense tailor made to make it easy for him. When he washed out of the NFL he still couldn't make a Pro style read. There is a right answer. If he has the basics down, play him. If he doesn't, work on those before you throw him out there. You don't want to hear that though. You shouldn't be wasting time arguing with me, you should be busy trying to organize your "Start Goff now!" email campaign.
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So, do we have any actual evidence to playing a QB actually hindering a player in a bad way from learning?
You can teach a player all you want on the practice field, but if it all falls apart on the playing field, then it doesn't matter.
People argue that there are a ton of QB's that fail after being thrown into the fire. Yeah. That's not a shock. There are maybe like 17-20 good NFL QB's, of course there is going to be a large majority of QB's who fail at first.
The point is, pick the right guy, and play him right away. If he is the right guy, he'll figure it out and likely it'll be better for him to start right away. Yes, lots of evidence that playing a QB too early hurts his development. Spread QB's come in at a disadvantage https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/re...5f65_story.htmlFive years ago, Bradford went to Shea seeking help with his mechanics in advance of the NFL draft. Bradford had succeeded in Oklahoma’s spread-based college offense, which emphasized quickly getting the ball to designated receivers rather than throwing mechanics and reading defenses. For six weeks, Shea, a longtime college and professional coach, instructed Bradford to throw almost no passes. Instead, Bradford spent each day working on footwork and balance.
“How I remember him — he was so good; his feet were working like pistons,” Shea said of Bradford in a telephone interview Tuesday morning. “I don’t see that as much anymore.”
Bradford, for better or worse, is representative of his generation of NFL quarterback: talented and largely capable, but lacking in some basic quarterback skills — throwing mechanics, footwork, reading defenses — that weren’t emphasized in their high school or college programs. “A lot of these quarterbacks now just play,” said Whitfield, who this past offseason worked with top pick Jameis Winston on draft prep and has done the same with Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel and Andrew Luck. “It’s not just the talent gap; it’s the knowledge gap in between it. And it’s widening.
“It’s not that these kids aren’t smart. It’s just what they’re exposed to. They’re not ready mechanically; they’re not ready schematically.” Shea, who also worked with Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III before the 2012 draft, said Griffin ran an offense at Baylor in which he threw to a specific receiver, in a particular part of the field, no matter the defensive alignment. He almost never read the defense because in Baylor Coach Art Briles’s system, that’s not the quarterback’s job.
“They’re in the shotgun, the pistol; they’re able to get by with lazy feet at times, and sometimes that’s not an issue,” Shea said, and indeed, players and coaches and programs have learned to win this way.
“You just know you’re going to spend more time at level 1,” Whitfield said. “You’ve just got to.”
Late in Monday’s game, Shea watched as Bradford — whom the St. Louis Rams selected with the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2010 — led the Eagles on a comeback attempt. Bradford dropped back hastily, his feet barely coming set before throwing toward Jordan Matthews; because Bradford’s mechanics were off, the pass was too high. The ball bounced off Matthews’s hands and into the arms of Falcons safety Ricardo Allen. For all QB's http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/7/24/9017021/quarterback-gurus-why-making-changes-is-so-difficultYou hear it a lot: This quarterback will need development. QB play is both physical and mental. Not to say other positions aren’t as well, but for a QB to truly be great they not only need good technique but also a clear mind when in the pocket taking crushing blows. There’s a lot to learn between the college game and the pro game. More often than not when QBs are drafted, they are expected to sit so they can develop. The reason is to get rid of bad habits and work on correct form and posture as well as get the offensive mindset flowing freely in their brains. There’s a huge difference in speed of the game in college and pros. Certain things like stance and release can help in the college game, but they won’t hinder you near as much as the professional level. A good example of this is Aaron Rodgers. If you’ve seen any of his tape at Cal, you’d notice he’s an entirely different looking QB. Promising and NFL ready, yes, but compare the Rodgers in Cal to the one in Green Bay and you’ll definitely see some differences. One of the more obvious differences was brought up in a prior post; how he holds the ball. At Cal, he dropped back similar in style to Peyton Manning, with the ball held just above his shoulders in a ready position to zip out. In Green Bay, he holds it closer to his chest in a relaxed position. It almost looks at times like he’s kicking back watching the action unfold in the pocket. In Rodgers’ first year, he struggled. He said in an interview with the Journal Sentinel that he had no idea what he was doing. Credit to Mike McCarthy for the calm QB you see today. After his first year, head coach Mike Sherman was fired and Mike McCarthy took over. Rodgers became his project and McCarthy put him through his "Quarterback School" where Rodgers worked for several hours a day learning McCarthy’s offense, and playing quarterback the way McCarthy wanted it. Rodgers had three years of practicing, fine-tuning, and getting ready to go. This might have been a bit too much, but there was no rush with Brett Favre as your starter. By the time Rodgers was starting, he had everything ground into him that was needed. Kaepernick wasn’t so lucky. I’m not saying he started too early. Starting as early as he did can be beneficial, but as the seasons wore on, he displayed a few things that drove fans nuts: Staring down his receivers, the cannon of an arm, and this year: phantom pressure. As Jim Harbaugh himself said in a video I posted last week, "It takes 1,000 reps to break a single bad habit." That’s just to break it, not to do it efficiently. Think about brushing your teeth, cutting back on alcohol or cigarettes, just making your bed. You have to do a lot of reps before you’re religious about it. We all can attest to how hard it was breaking a bad habit in our lives. The same can be said for the way you throw a football. I’m not saying another year on the sidelines would have helped Kaepernick’s case, but in the seven days between games, you only have enough time to game plan for the other team, execute what your offense is going to allow, work on the chemistry with your receivers, watch film, and make basic adjustments. There is so much you have to work on, you just can’t go in and change everything. On the flip-side, backup quarterbacks drafted with intentions to get the keys or even veterans with some talent are given a more hands on approach. Backup quarterbacks usually emulate the other opponent’s starters, but they are also taking reps with less focus on how they are going to play on Sunday and more on getting themselves in a position to play. This, of course varies team to team, but it gives you some good insight on how productivity is done. The coaches can afford to break down mechanics on a player. Unless you’re a Jason Campbell or Drew Stanton, the coaches see a young backup as a potential project to really work on. Take Tim Tebow. The original idea was to put him in some game-day packages to give him some playing time doing what he was comfortable with, but keep him on the sidelines working more on fundamentals and QB play so he could later lead the offense. Of course once John Fox came in and Kyle Orton went down, the grooming was over. Why? Because they don’t have time to focus on Tebow’s QB play, they had to figure out how Tebow as a quarterback was going to win games for them every week. Once Kaepernick took the starting job, his development was turned down. Not that they weren’t working with him (Harbaugh is the best there is with QBs, according to several sources), but now he wasn’t a project. He was leading a team. He was watching film, game-planning, taking first team reps. It’s a different atmosphere. He obviously had been groomed enough in the system he could be a competent starter, but they also added the pistol to his repertoire as they needed to find a way to win with him. If you watched the Bears and New England Patriots contests of that season, you see a different QB a lot of the time. He scanned the field and didn’t stare down receivers as much. But like any sport, bad habits do happen. I bet every QB in the NFL is working hard on trying to fix whatever was nagging them the previous season. Kaepernick definitely developed some bad habits. You get to keep doing this until A: You decide to go back to what you were doing and hope it works, or B: You get comfy and realize it helped you in the long run. This was a process that began at the start of the offseason; there is no way Kaepernick could get this coaching in a training camp, or during the season. Plus, it’s one thing to be working on things from a list, and another to have someone living and breathing right there to tell you if you’re doing it right, wrong, or throwing another ball to just do it again. Not every QB can come right out of college like Andrew Luck or (sorry guys) Russell Wilson and set the world on fire and even then they are always striving to get better. Some of them just need to get a bit of work. Kaepernick got it, and realized there were a lot of things he could still work on, so he’s back to the grind on his fundamentals. Starting too early doesn't speed up your development. It slows it down. You can't adjust footwork or throwing motion during the season. You have to be comfortable with it if you are playing on Sunday. You can't work on it during the week if you are starting because all of that time needs to be used to game plan to win Sunday's game. If you are the back-up, that stuff can be worked on while the starters are working on the gameplan. I know most of you don't want to hear it, but it is common sense.
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I've been trying to read these with Don Knotts' voice. It's not easy. No, it's not. This is kind of reminding me of certain FPS games I used to play. When the graphics were smooth and responsive and my character was moving at a good clip I would sometimes feel something like vertigo. It was explained to me that is was mixed signals to the brain. My eyes, watching the realistic game play, were telling brain that I was in motion, while the rest of my body knew I was not in motion. The brain was not always able to reconcile the contradiction. Some people have it reverse when doing something like reading in the car. The body senses the motion but the eyes, concentrating on the book, are thinking the body is stationary. When I read Deputy's posts, I see the Barney Fife pic and automatically get a preconceived notion of what I am going to read, and hear it in Fife's voice. Then my brain sees the depth of knowledge, impressive vocabulary, etc. and has a hard time pairing that up with ol' Barn. Oh, and Dep, a while back towards the end of the season I compared giving Farmer the #1 pick in the draft to giving Barney Fife a rocket launcher, or something like that. Was not aimed at you! 
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It turns out that 'common sense' isn't all that common.
1. #GMstrong
2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb
3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa
4. ClemenZa #1
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It turns out that 'common sense' isn't all that common. Apparently not. Show them examples and they argue "But this one guy did it!" Show them math and they argue "The math has to be wrong!" I don't know what else to do.
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Legend
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Legend
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Alabama's Waterboy in Ought Twelve. Sorry can't imagine him as a coach. Great pic, though! Still laughing.
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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Legend
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Legend
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And keep them out of Vegas . . .and bars . . .and cars. . . longer list of things than I thought.
PS Never mentioned unstable girlfriends either. Didn't bring it up.
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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~ Legend
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~ Legend
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As far as that article. Please point out 1 guy in that "big chunk" that wasn't good enough to start 5 games in a season that would have made a difference. Then take it up with Fox Sports and show them your math.
"There was no desire to look at the total failures, such as 2nd rd picks Brian Brohm, John Beck, Marques Tuiasosopo" Look, they intentionally skewd the numbers. The took out a group of "total failures" because of it. Hence the name "total failures". Including any of these probably dip the the numbers towards starting a QB early. I also see that they put Drew Brees into Group A (QB's who didn't play during their rookie season), but he did play in a game, and had a 97 passer rating that game. They also mentioned Chad Pennington in this group, he also played during his rookie year (127 passer rating). These incidents seems to violate their requirements... Possibly in an another attempt to skew numbers, but maybe a clerical error. It's hard to know with people who have such an overt agenda. But hey, cool "Analytics"
Last edited by CHSDawg; 01/25/16 02:02 PM. Reason: Added Chad Pennington
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Legend
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I really like this guy. Comes from a sports family with pedigree. He was well coached in HS and college. Plus we can pick him in the 2nd or 3rd round and take an DE, OL or WR in the first. http://www.gopsusports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/christian_hackenberg_857106.htmlFinished the 2014 season ranked first in 300-yard passing games (8), third in passing yards (5,932), attempts (876) and completions (501), fourth in total offense (5,770) and 200-yard passing games (15) and eighth in passing touchdowns (32) in Penn State history...One of only 10 Nittany Lions to amass 4,000 yards passing in a career and one of just eight Penn State quarterbacks to top the 5,000-yard mark...Owns the Penn State record for passing yards in a game (454; 2014), passing yards in consecutive games (773; 2014), pass attempts in a game (55; 2013), season completions (270; 2014 -- tied with Matt McGloin) and pass attempts in a season (484; 2014)...As a freshman, broke one Penn State overall passing record and 12 school freshman passing records, including the rookie marks for game and season passing completions, attempts, yards and touchdown passes...Set Penn State bowl game records for passing yards (371), completions (34) and attempts (50), and tied the record for passing touchdowns and touchdowns accounted for in a bowl game with four.
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." Thomas Jefferson.
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I think it all comes down to the individual. If they are willing to put in the work, they can start right away. Math has its uses, but the past is not necessarily indicative of what will happen in the future.
![[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]](https://i.ibb.co/fkjZc8B/Bull-Dawg-Sig-smaller.jpg) You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
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Legend
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Legend
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JC
If we draft a QB do we have to start him immediately? If he's ready, yes. If he's not, then no. Why decide now to dogmatically lock yourself into a course of action?
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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~ Legend
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~ Legend
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JC
If we draft a QB do we have to start him immediately? If he's ready, yes. If he's not, then no. Why decide now to dogmatically lock yourself into a course of action? Because I want to talk about Goff  I don't think we should start or even draft Lynch or Wentz.
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Hall of Famer
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As far as that article. Please point out 1 guy in that "big chunk" that wasn't good enough to start 5 games in a season that would have made a difference. Then take it up with Fox Sports and show them your math.
"There was no desire to look at the total failures, such as 2nd rd picks Brian Brohm, John Beck, Marques Tuiasosopo" Look, they intentionally skewd the numbers. The took out a group of "total failures" because of it. Hence the name "total failures". Including any of these probably dip the the numbers towards starting a QB early. I also see that they put Drew Brees into Group A (QB's who didn't play during their rookie season), but he did play in a game, and had a 97 passer rating that game. They also mentioned Chad Pennington in this group, he also played during his rookie year (127 passer rating). These incidents seems to violate their requirements... Possibly in an another attempt to skew numbers, but maybe a clerical error. It's hard to know with people who have such an overt agenda. But hey, cool "Analytics" You found me out. Back in May, 2015, I anticipated that we would be having this argument. I have a lot of pull with Fox Sports and I asked them to skew the numbers so I could use them to my advantage against you in this argument. I didn't give them a lot of instruction, but I made sure that they got Marques Tuiasosopo the heck out of the equation. I knew Marques Tuiasosopo was the key to holding my fragile argument together. I then teamed up with homeland security and we have secretly been wiping Marques Tuiasosopo information off of the internet. It's amazing what those guys can do and only they and I really know that he really won 4 Superbowls. The rest of the world just thinks he is some nobody. This is what you see on his wikipedia page after homeland security was done with it. Oakland Raiders[edit] Tuiasosopo was selected by the Raiders in the second round of the 2001 NFL Draft, the 59th overall pick and the fourth quarterback selected (behind Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and Quincy Carter). In the NFL, Tuiasosopo was primarily a reserve quarterback, the Raiders' backup to Rich Gannon and Kerry Collins. He was on the sidelines for Super Bowl XXXVII at the conclusion of the 2002 season, but did not appear in the game as his team lost 48-21. His first significant playing time came during a Monday Night Football game during the 2003 season, throwing for 224 yards, all in the second half. Marques played well enough to earn his first career NFL start the following week, but struggled, throwing for just 65 yards along with an interception before leaving the game with an injury late in the first half. He did not start another game until late in the 2005 season, where he again struggled losing 26-10. He was promptly demoted back to the sidelines the next week. The team finished just 4-12 in the 2005 season with primarily Collins as the starting quarterback, paving the way for the younger Tuiasosopo to receive more consideration for the job. No mentions of the rings, all the records broken and the candy bar named after him. As for Chad Pennington : That 127 passer rating is 2 completions on 5 attempts. If you don't believe me check out Pro Football reference for yourself. Now you might think that those 5 attempts would be statistically relevant, but those are exactly the things that skew the numbers that analytics tries to weed out. Same with those unknown QB's that you are worried about. Other than Marques Tuiasosopo, we totally conspired against you on that one. That reminds me, I gotta mail these guys their weekly "hush money" checks.
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