DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum A Closer Look at the Passing Game-Hue/2016

Similar to the previous thread, a discussion of the passing game for those so inclined...


Where to start? A look at the 2015 season.....

Passing Offense

Football Outsiders Pass ranking: 27th

NFL Raw Stats:
Yard Per Attempt: 6.8 --26th
Passing Yards: 3,782 --21st

2015 Top Receivers
Gary Barnidge---REC--79--TAR--124--YDS--1043--AVG--13.2-9 TDs

Travis Benjamin-REC--68--TAR--124--YDS---966--AVG--14.2-5 TDs

Brian Hartline--REC--46--TAR---74---YDS---523--AVG--11.4-2 TDs

Duke Johnson----REC--61--TAR---74--YDS---534--AVG--8.8-2 TDs

Andrew Hawkins--REC--27--TAR---44--YDS--276--AVG--10.2

Taylor Gabriel--REC--28--TAR---48---YDS---241--AVG--8.6


-------------------------------------------

Where to next?

I'm actually interested in projection for Corey Coleman's rookie season.....

Last year's personnel vs current personnel?

Possible roles in Hue Jackson passing game?

I thought it strange that Duke had 61 receptions on 74 targeted attempts. IMO, that seems low as most, if not all, were very short passes. I would have expected a somewhat higher completion percentage...

64 out of 71 is a 90 % completion avg.... I don't think you can expect more than that out of anyone.

I am not sure why you think that's low or why you would expect a higher comp%?

Due to the nature of the passes - very short and relatively "soft"...

Just spit-balling, but if the QB sees the defense has it covered, and intentionally throws it away, does that count as a target?

Or perhaps screens that have been diagnosed by the defence and the QB throws it in the dirt in the area.

That's what I meant, you just said it better.

Because these stats are from Football Outsiders, my guess is that the throwaways are not included in the targets.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/nfl-stats-not-always-target

I find it really hard to determine where we will be offensively, because we will have a largely brand new offense.

We will have a new QB, C, RT, and maybe WR1, WR2, and even WR3. I think that both of our primary RBs have a lot of room for improvement in the run game.

Offense this year is really anyone's guess.

Okay...but have you looked at where he stacks up against other RBs?

Imo if you look at any stat in a vacuum w/o comps then making judging whether a catch rate is low or high is kinda baseless *shrugs*

Targets are catchable passes thrown to a specific player. They don't include throw aways.

First major change from 2015 is the loss of 2 of the top 3 receivers.

Those subtractions creates a surplus of possible targets...124 for Benjamin and 74 for Hartline.

Those 198 targets could be further compared against league average pass attempts or Hue's history.

But whichever way it gets hacked up the end state is that there is a lot of opportunity for Coleman and some other receivers in this passing game.

My next thought is...what kind of targets make sense for Coleman? What role would he have in the passing game? For me the answers come from a combo of several factors...his skillset, Hue/Al previous history, transition of similar college receivers (i.e. spread), QB play, OL protection etc.

Of course there tons of unknowns, so on my end I'm not going to focus on them but rather concentrate on the knowns.

http://www.scout.com/nfl/browns/story/1649361-josh-gordon-s-fit-in-hue-jackson-s-pass-game






9 route/Go/Fly -A route Coleman runs very well:





Slant- Another route Coleman excelled running





Drive/Shallow crosser:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fanc...8&tid=ss_tw



In depth breakdown of Corey^^

I really appreciate you finding and posting all of these videos and articles. Thanks!

99% certain that his career is over, so it doesn't matter if he fits or not.


Although, things in the media about Gordon did get super quiet in a big hurry. So, there's likely a chance that they're clearing the news of him in the hopes that people's opinions are changed by fall when they'd announce a decision.

I really dislike when reporters make comments like the above one. Say it w/enough conviction and arrogance and the readers believe it.

Asking because I don't know - how often does a receiver really need to know all the routes? If a guy is primarily the 'X', does that limit what he needs to know, or is it common for a receiver to be running any of the routes from within his role?

Quite right. But their breakdown of the role and routes of the X receiver in Hue's passing game fits.

Colemen the burner add Gordon the utter freak of nature would be dangerous and scary for defenses. Relying on Gordon and entrusting in him though, even more scary and dangerous.

The flip side is that while it may be a valid description of the receiver as college prospect it doesn't mean that they can't expand their route tree when they get to the NFL.

It's one of those rote generic criticisms that gets tossed around to many WRs prospects around draft time, especially WRs from spread offenses. Imo this happens because scouts/coaches are slow to change and they have a long standing bias against spread offenses.
I guarantee its a knock that has been applied to every spread receiver. Yet, we've all watched as spread receivers transition to the NFL year after year.

And specifically to Coleman, he dominated in routes Baylor's offense required of him.

How often in a game or in a season?
Either way it depends on the offense.

For example as a Redskins fan I can tell you that DeSean never runs in breaking routes. The closest he comes is a skinny (very) skinny post. His routes consist of Hitches, Go, Deep Crossers and Screens.

Randy Moss is an HOF WR that never ran a full route tree.



Off the top of my head I can't think of any places to find that information anymore. (PFF use to make it accessible to regular customers but doesn't any longer).

But, a differet way and accessible way to look at routes is through the prism of QB targets. PFF (louses) only provides that data for NFL teams and media outlets now, but in 2013 they made it available mainstream:

The NFL average breakdown of where the 2013 QBs threw the ball:

Hitches 14%

Go 12%

Crossing 10%

Out 10%

Screens 10% (RB 4% WR/TE 6%)

Slants 8%

Quick Outs 7%

Posts 6%

In breaking 6%

Corner 2%

Comebacks 2%

If by some utterly weird freak of chance that he actually gets to come back - and doesn't screw it up the very next day - that combination is a complete nightmare for any and every DC out there, even moreso if our OLine can buy our QB time. Add in a dangerous slot type and we'd be cookin' with oil.

Actually, to take thoughts a step further, what that would do for the Run game AND how much it would magnify the running threat of a guy like RG3... every defense we face would have to prepare to be gassed by halftime of every game.

But, that's enough June-optimism...

Seems like you really haven't let go of ole #12.

oh, I've let go completely... but, he does have some fascinating talent and potential.

To entertain the outta the ballpark thought there, it probably wouldn't do anything to help the run game, as I forget the exact stat, I just remember it being shocking to me - but teams weren't loading the box on us and still destroying our run attempts.

If we got a blocking oline and some sort of established and consistent run game, the passing game of Colemen, Gordon and Hawk/Gabriel sounds lethal in terms of how the offense could be ran, and how defenses need to adjust to attempt to stop it. Deadly type of lethal.

But this is a few leagues above "fairy tale land."

I don't see any real correlation with past stats and our current situation except that they both wear/wore Orange & Brown; this would be a completely new group of players, coaches, schemes, etc... the way past players were coached and schemed has no bearing at all on the current crop.


Of course it is all "Fantasy Island", but there is potential there.... and about 100 "IF's".

No real" correlations "there, just the hunch that we are a weaker offensive line unit being minus two stars and we couldn't get it done with the full boat. We lost Mack and our" awesome" and fun to watch run game under Kyle went down the crap hole faster than a lightning strike. Now we lost Mack permanently and also Schwartz. Assumptions are evil, but some can have some sort of foundation to them.

Coaches, schemes and etc are meaningless when you don't have the players to execute it.

Except you introduced him into a thread where no one was talking about him and now the conversation is on him *shrugs* your in effect doing the opposite of what you proclaim...no problem just funny

or, we could go with what actually happened - ya know, where I responded to (even quoted) a post where he was brought up.

Whichever. Reality is fluid.



Edit:
::looks back even further to the root post::

Oh, look - it was YOU that I quoted as the one that introduced him to the thread. Huh. Man, that's WEIRD.

I hate it when that happens LOL

You're funny. Almost every single post you've made in this thread is about Gordon.

Your 1st post:


In the post you reference above I don't mention Gordon once in the entire post. Not ONCE. The only player I mention in the post is Coleman. However; the ONLY player YOU mention is Gordon; not once did you mention the player I actually wrote about in the post Coleman. I get it. You probably did a cursory drive by clicked on the link and didn't read the post. No worries.

My response to your 1st post:
Again, no mention of Gordon from me. Talking about the role of the X receiver in Hue's offense which is the point of the post you quoted initially, which understandably could have went unnoticed by you if you only clicked the link and didn't actually read the post or the thread.

Here is another post from you involving Gordon:
Kinda odd doesn't seem to match with your sentiment here, lol: "....it doesn't matter if he fits or not"

If you have gotten over Gordon like you profess and really don't think it matters, you sure don't post like.
Which is your right, but why hide from it?

I only posted all this for accuracy sake. And to be clear, I not once talked about or mention Gordon other then with after YOU started talking about him. Prior to that I had not mentioned him once.

Anyhow, cheers all the same.

For those curious about route breakdowns:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/search/?cx=partner-pub-7720048054160144%3A8761247317&cof=FORID%3A10&ie=UTF-8&q=route+breakdown&sa=Search

^^^That's a link to PFF's comprehensive route breakdown data from 2014 Outs, Hitches, Slants, Go etc are broken down in depth.

Here is an example:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/route-breakdown-slants/



The sum of there route breakdown is their Yard Per Route Run stat which is a measure of WR/(passing game efficiency):



I thought this was interesting tidbit not that it means much because of the limited sample size:

I believe the main ingredient missing in all of this is the combination that has Dalton and all his WR's have a long time chemistry. I do believe that stats can tell you some things, but not everything. We not only have a new QB, we also have new WR's.

Having a well oiled and productive passing game has a direct impact on the run. This is an ingredient that won't show up in many stats.

I would also say that while your OL comparison has some merit, how many players were new on that OL? Was there some sense of chemistry and continuity on that OL? ie.... How many of the players were new to the OL?

One other note. You broke down passing routes into categories. The thing is, there are several routes within each of those categories. It's a little more complicated that it would appear via your example.

You bring a lot to the board and I'm very glad you decided to participate in this forum.

A quick post on the receivers that were let go.
The targets (198) and production lost was already posted.

Here's a look at size/speed that left:

T.Benjamin-5'10--175---4.36

B. Hartline-6'2--200---4.58

Of course I'm spitballing here based on historical data....But the 198 targets lost mixed in with the NFL average pass attempts per season of 576 (-Gary and Duke's targets) 378ish other target will be shared between some returning receivers and these new additions:

Corey Coleman--5'11--194---4.37

Ricardo Louis--6'2--215---4.43

Seth Devalve--6'4--245---4.68

Jordan Payton--6'1--215---4.47

Rashard Higgin--6'1--196---4.64

Terelle Pryor--6'4--233---4.40 (non-official seen anywhere from 4.33 to 4.38) either way fast

So what is the number you expected? Not trying t be confrontational at all; higher percentage would be tough to do.

Where do you see the bar set? Seems he was schemed for YAC, and we wanted him to get it in space. Something to build on IMO.

quick preamble-

I'm noticing a trend that's gonna take some getting used to from a discussion stand point. I'll post stats and information as reference points, background data before I get around to discussing what I think those stats mean to me. But, before I ever get around to that part, and its perfectly fine that this happens...but people look at the stats and they form their own conclusion about the stats or what they think I think the stats are saying. Its all good in my book because I look forward to football discussion however I can get it.



On the Bengals OL? Quite a bit because they had injuries, like most OLs, and shuffled people around in 2014. But, that's typical of any OL. I do agree that chemistry and continuity help on the OL but that is exception rather then the rule.

RE: Dalton/Cinci passing game

I agree with all your points about Dalton and their passing game. Not sure where or if you got the impression that I thought otherwise or maybe that was a general comment?

Not so much as "I" broke the routes into categories, rather the people that chart routes like PFF and the folks at Reception Perception break them down into categories. Is there something specific you wanted to discuss about the routes? Net-net I agree in the sense that everything about football is more complicated then can readily broken down and quantified. But, you've got start somewhere, some data is better then none.

I'm all ears (eyes) if you know of another source with a more complete breakdown I would be happy to read it. Always up learning from a new source.

Thanks, this forum has welcomed me and has quite a good base of posters. I'm on a lot of forums (for fantasy football/gambling reasons and general love of football) Redskins, Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks, Panthers, Philly, Giants, Panthers. I was even on another Browns board (thumbsdown btw) back when Mangini/Shurmur ran the show. This is by far one of the more civilized, informed and friendly.

Cheers