DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum Indians: Home Stretch

Kluber hot at right time, taking 2 of 3 vs twins is huge,tigers lose 2 of 3

good day tribe

Yogi said I'm smarter than the av-er-age bear

Mike Napoli (statistically better in just about everything) and he costs $7M.

They are out there.

As if batting average is an accurate to evaluate a hitter.

Oh wait, you are the same guy that is still using fielding percentage. Nevermind, proceed.

(The team option is for $12M, which is nothing.)

Todd Frazier has a .297 OBP. That is horrible. He is also under contract in 2017. Carlos Santana is a more valuable player even without playing defense.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2396&position=C/1B
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=785&position=3B

Salazar out 3-4 weeks with a forearm strain; could return for playoffs. Or not.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17532434/danny-salazar-cleveland-indians-3-4-weeks-forearm-injury

you never have been very good at reading/comprehension..and most of your posts are you trying to make someone feel foolish when in fact, they are usually so off base its hilarious..but proceed and tell me how a .240 hitter, has a 1.9 WAR, hits into top 5 of league in DP, doesn't drive in alot of runs..isn't replaceable at 12m a year, I also prefaced it by saying they will probably pick up his option over paying napoli because they have no competition, but he's not irreplaceable at that kind of money as some people believe

and as far as the fielding percentage...yeah what a dumb stat...when it doesn't match up to your agenda...sorry kipnis is very average in the field

with the way Cookie and Bauer have struggled, this doesn't look good. Hopefully we call someone up and not have 2 bullpen games a week. Struggling against a very bad chicago team. Really would like to see some consistency down the stretch. From my eyes, we don't look like a team that's going to make a deep push. Detroit won today as well.

I appreciate his posts. He comes at it with analytics that are used by major league front offices.

Would be nice if the pitching could keep the Sox from touching home plate each and every inning. Only one more inning to go.

Fielding percentage.

He doesn't drive in many runs.

Agenda.

You are the best.

Whoooohoooo! Eight straight innings with runs against!

And Detroit won.

Poo.

BLAH

detroit is like a lingering bad smell

If any out-of town-Indians' fans (or any team's fans) are interested, MLB-TV is offering the final 3 weeks of the regular season - 293 games - for $9.99.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/200776546/mlbtv-price-lowered-to-999/

DAVE!!!

Thanks so much for the MLB.com info and link.

I can swing the $9.99.

I’m signed up and will now get to watch the Indians for the remainder of the season.

Thanks again.

P.S. For the rest of you Indians fans, I apologize for the jinx that follows me like a black storm cloud.

The local games I got to see this year:

Vs. Yankees ... 2-5
Vs. Red Sox ....2-4
Vs. Mets …...….1-2
……….....………..____
My total……..….5-11

That’s uncanny for a team 20+ games over .500.

If we lose tonight, please call for a refund, Rocky!!!

WV: I bet I had enough pierogi leftovers this season to feed a ship.



Granted, a Zumwalt Class Guided Missile Destroyer ship.

What kind of pierogi? Our church growing up used to make cottage cheese ones that were to die for. They also made a lecvar (prune jam filled) that I still love to this day. It's what my Baba would make my Pap when I would stay at their house on occasion. I like them more for sentimental reasons than anything else.

yep. and seven games yet to play against them.

we have alot more questions than answers as we back into the playoffs, our luck the O's will get the wildcard, we didn't look good against them at all. Getting to the playoffs isn't good enough, we need to be playing well by then, beating teams in the cellar consistent, which we aren't doing..Pitching is a god awful mess right now, this will be a test for Tito, so far i'm not impressed how he's handled pitching, but we have a couple weeks to figure out, im not sure Salazar will be good to get back into the rotation this year, maybe a couple innings in relief or something. We really need Tomlin to remember how to keep the ball in the park, then we can move clevinger into Danny's spot. Say you reduce the rotation down to 3 come playoffs...Kluber and who do you pick out of the rest because they all have struggled, probably Bauer..,murky at best now

Go Tribe! (Potato and Cheese)

I've seen this stated a few times before and its not realistic. You can't do it - you'll need a 4 man rotation. That means we have to go with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, and either Salazar, Tomlin, or Clevinger as your #4. Here's the ALDS schedule, assuming we are either 2nd or 3rd AL Divisional winner:

10/6 - Game 1
10/7 - Game 2
10/9 - Game 3
10/10 - Game 4
10/12 - Game 5

ALCS and World Series follow a similar schedule. In other words, this isn't the NBA, you're going to play 5 games every 7 days. That means no 3 man rotations; its not the 50's and 60's anymore, these guys aren't built that way. We need 4 starters for the post season.

You can't go three man rotation until you get to the World Series.

Not even then. 7 games in 9 days. Here's the schedule for the WS:

Tuesday, October 25

TBD WS Gm 1 NL Champion @ AL Champion

Wednesday, October 26

TBD WS Gm 2 NL Champion @ AL Champion

Friday, October 28

TBD WS Gm 3 AL Champion @ NL Champion

Saturday, October 29

TBD WS Gm 4 AL Champion @ NL Champion

Sunday, October 30

TBD WS Gm 5* AL Champion @ NL Champion

* if necessary

Tuesday, November 1

TBD WS Gm 6* NL Champion @ AL Champion

* if necessary

Wednesday, November 2

TBD WS Gm 7* NL Champion @ AL Champion

* if necessary

(The "TBD" refers to the teams, not the date.)

Ok given that, that makes our situation even worse because no one outside of kluber is trustworthy. Thought maybe Bauer but once again he's getting drilled as we speak by a very bad team. I don't think it's a given we win division with the way we struggle against bad teams and still have 7 against Detroit. We seem to be able to hit 1 out of every 6 or 7 games and the rest are 1-3 run varieties.

We've gone from promising over achieving team to typical Cleveland embarrassment

Good info.

Both Detroit and KC lost tonight

Yeah, thankfully they lost as well.

Man, last night the Sox killed us by bleeding us dry a little bit in every inning. Tonight it was one large inning of disaster.

Crap.

Talk about wheels comin' off.

5-5 over the last 10 games. The wheels are still attached. 18 games in the regular season left to enjoy still before the post season starts

I think it's all good as long as Detroit doesn't sweep

Yan Gomes is supposed to return this weekend. It won't help the lineup any, but it might help the pitching staff settle down.

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf...ncart_big-photo

^ Good.

The computers saw the Cleveland Indians coming

You may or may not recall that before the 2016 season began, while fans and human prognosticators were all over the place in their expectations for the Indians this season, computer projections were all quite optimistic. PECOTA, run by Baseball Prospectus, and possibly the most famous of the projected standings, had the Indians winning 92 games and taking the AL Central by ten games. At FanGraphs they had the Tribe with a more modest 87 wins, but expected that would still be enough to win the division.

The big story at the time was both sites having the Royals with a losing record, at least nine games behind Cleveland. Each of the two previous seasons the projections had been down on Kansas City, but the Royals had gone on to win the American League pennant, and many expected the computers to be badly proven wrong again. Well, with a little more than two weeks left in the season, the Royals have a winning record, but they find themselves nine games behind the Tribe. Score one for the computers.

At FanGraphs, the projected AL division winners were the Red Sox, Indians, and Astros. Two of those teams are currently in third place, and all of them are at least five games over .500. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners, and Tigers were projected to be the top Wild Card contenders, and all four of those teams are still very much in the hunt for a postseason spot.

With 18 games to play, the Indians are sitting on a six-game lead over Detroit and are on pace to win 93 games. They're almost certain to exceed FanGraphs' projected win total, and if they win more than they lose between now and the end of the regular season, they'll best the even loftier PECOTA projection too.

Their biggest miss was the Rangers, who they projected to win 79 games. Instead Texas has the AL’s best record, but it’s worth mentioning that their success has come on the shoulders of an eye-popping 33-10 record in one run games. if they were 23-20 in one-run games, they wouldn’t be in first place. (The Rangers have a staggering eight one-run wins against the Astros this season.) Now, they deserve credit for winning so many close games, but FanGraphs wasn’t as far off about them as it might seem if you just look at wins and losses.

If anything, FanGraphs' projections did an even better job in the National League. The Cubs were projected to be the best team (they are), and the five teams projected to make the postseason were the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, and Giants. If the season were over right now, those are exactly the five teams that would make it.

The projections rarely do quite as well as the FanGraphs system has done this year, but they also rarely miss as badly as they did with the Royals a year ago. Projections are about probability, not exactitude. They play out the season and postseason thousands and thousands of times, and the projects amount to an averaging out of the results from those trials. And just as you sometimes roll snake eyes, sometimes a team is going to win a dozen more (or a dozen fewer) games than a computer system projects them to.

With almost 90% of a season's worth of new data, FanGraphs now projects the Indians to have a 96.1% chance of winning the Central, and a 3.1% chance to win one of the Wildcard spots. In all, 97.8% of the simulations FanGraphs runs have the Indians playing in an American League Division Series three weeks from now. They're advancing to the ALCS 46.6% of the time, which means they lose in the ALDS simulations slightly more often than they win. This is because their most-likely opponent in the ALDS is Boston, whom the computers view as the American League's best team. They're given a 24.1% chance of winning the ALCS, which means they win in the ALCS simulations more often than they lose. This is because if they reach the ALCS, they'll likely be facing someone other than Boston, and the computers view the Indians as being better than any AL team other than Boston.

The Cubs are 36.5 games ahead of the Braves right now, with a run differential that is 379 runs better than Atlanta's, yet the last time the two teams played, the Braves won, and the two teams split their seasons series, three wins apiece. No one thinks that 3-3 record means the two teams are evenly matched, and no one who knows baseball finds that 3-3 record surprising. We know that sort of thing happens all the time in baseball. Every postseason series involves two teams who are much closer to one another in talent than this year's Cubs and Braves are, so it should never be a big surprise when any particular team wins a postseason series, or even wins three in a row to become champions. That's what people are getting at when they refer to the postseason as a crapshoot.

That said, the better a team is, the better its chances of surviving that crapshoot. The Indians are where they are despite getting next to nothing good from Michael Brantley or Yan Gomes, expected before the season to be two of their key players. They've survived shorter-term injuries to a lot of good pitchers. They've built on their lead in the second half even though All-Star Danny Salazar has been injured and/or ineffective almost the entire time. You can look at the roster and see whatever you want. The computers still see a very good team, one with a better chance of winning the pennant than almost any other team.

http://www.letsgotribe.com/2016/9/14/129...ecota-standings

Crisp! 3-run bomb.

With Detroit leading, we need this one.

Magic number down to 12.

Great job by Tomlin tonight. The Tribe really needed someone other than Kluber to step-up.

Ramirez with a clutch 2 run triple after they kept letting opportunities slip by.

Need another win tomorrow with Clevinger on the mound.