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My daughter is studying history, and is actually learning about what happened to the Whig party back in the 1800's. I found the situation really similar to what we're seeing today with the Republican party, and I'm wondering if this could be the impetus to a new party forming from the disparaged members of the party.

I found a relative article about it in Politco, but it's a bit long. I've copied it below, but the "TL:DR" of it boils down to: Zachary Taylor won the Whig nomination in 1848 because he was considered an "outsider". He wasn't really well liked though by a lot in the Whig party because he wasn't exactly conservative and was also a bit of an a-hole. He ended up winning the election anyway because Democrats put up an equally appalling nominee. (All this sound familiar?) Four years later, Taylor had one of the worst Presidencies ever, Democrats won the next election in a landslide, and most Whigs ran off to start a new party (The Republicans) to distance themselves from the sinking ship that was the Whig party.


Quote:
It was summer, and a major U.S. political party had just chosen an inexperienced, unqualified, loutish, wealthy outsider with ambiguous party loyalties to be its presidential nominee. Some party luminaries thought he would help them win the general election. But many of the faithful were furious and mystified: How could their party compromise its ideals to such a degree?

Sound like 2016? This happened a century and a half ago.

Many have called Donald Trump’s unexpected takeover of a major political party unprecedented; but it’s not. A similar scenario unfolded in 1848, when General Zachary Taylor, a roughhewn career soldier who had never even voted in a presidential election, conquered the Whig Party.

A look back at what happened that year is eye-opening—and offers warnings for those on both sides of the aisle. Democrats quick to dismiss Trump should beware: Taylor parlayed his outsider appeal to defeat Lewis Cass, an experienced former Cabinet secretary and senator. But Republicans should beware, too: Taylor is often ranked as one of the worst presidents in U.S. history—and, more seriously, the Whig Party never recovered from his victory. In fact, just a few years after Taylor was elected under the Whig banner, the party dissolved—undermined by the divisions that caused Taylor’s nomination in the first place, and also by the loss of faith that followed it.

***

Born in 1784 into a prominent Southern slaveholding family, Taylor was commissioned as an army officer at age 23. He first distinguished himself as a captain in the War of 1812 and gained even greater fame in the Second Seminole War, for which he earned the nickname “Old Rough and Ready” by bravely crossing a treacherous swamp with his men during the Battle of Okeechobee. The moniker suited this stocky, stern, undisciplined slob, who shared his men’s battlefield hardships and rarely dressed in military finery. With his signature straw hat, “he looks more like an old farmer going to market with eggs to sell,” one officer muttered.

It wasn’t until the Mexican-American War that Taylor, by then a major general, became a beloved national hero. Just days before Congress officially declared war on Mexico in May 1846, Taylor led U.S. troops to two victories over much larger Mexican forces at Palo Alto and Resaca de la Palma. And in February 1847, Taylor’s force defeated Mexican troops despite being outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1 at the Battle of Buena Vista. After the victory, Taylor was toasted from Maine to Georgia. Americans sang, “Zachary Taylor was a brave old feller, Brigadier General, A, Number One/ He fought twenty thousand Mexicanoes;/ Four thousand he killed, the rest they ‘cut and run.’”

Members of both major political parties at the time—the Democrats and the Whigs—started holding public celebrations lauding Taylor with elaborate toasts to George Washington, the republic and their new hero. They often culminated with formal resolutions amid loud “huzzahs” endorsing Taylor’s nomination for president in 1848. As the booze-fueled, red, white and blue political excitement grew, one Kentuckian exclaimed, shortly after Taylor’s Buena Vista victory, “I tell ye, General Taylor is going to be elected by spontaneous combustion.”

As an active soldier, Taylor demurred at first. All his life, Taylor had proudly refused to enroll in a political party, boasting that he never voted. As late as 1846, Taylor insisted the idea of becoming president “never entered my head … nor is it likely to enter the head of any sane person.” His wife was ill and he felt unqualified. And he preferred to tend to his vast landholdings and slaveholdings in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi—an inherited fortune augmented thanks to goodies showered on him after his war victories that made him one of the wealthiest Americans of his day.

Eventually, however, the political fervor swept up Taylor, too. In various letters that were quickly (and intentionally) publicized by the recipients, Taylor began explaining how “a sense of duty to the country” forced him to overcome his “repugnance” and permit people to advance his name. He might defer to the “spontaneous move of the people” but “without pledges” to stay true to any specific platform plank. He would only accept a nomination to be “president of the nation and not of a party.” A genuine nationalist who recognized how much Americans disliked professional politicians, Taylor placed himself above the “trading politicians … on both sides.”

Despite all this talk of staying away from one party or another, Taylor began inching toward the Whig Party, and the Whigs inched closer to him. At first glance, a general seemed to be a strange choice for the Whigs. Founded in the 1830s as a strained coalition of Southern states’ rights conservatives and Northern industrialists united mostly by disgust at Andrew Jackson’s expansion of presidential power, the Whig Party considered the war a disastrous result of presidential overreach. In fact, the popular backlash they stirred against Democratic President James K. Polk was so great that the Whigs seized control of Congress during the 1846 midterm election. But once America’s victory over Mexico triggered such enthusiasm, some Whigs calculated that running an extremely popular war hero like Taylor would prove to voters that the Whigs were patriotic, despite their anti-war stance.

Taylor also appealed to the Whigs’ founding fear of presidential power. In the letters he wrote, he invoked Whig doctrine, justifying a passive president who deferred to the people and the Congress.

And then, there was the slavery issue: Taylor’s ambiguous status as a slaveholder who dodged questions about the escalating slavery debate seemed to be a clever choice for a party increasingly divided over the South’s mass enslavement of blacks. The territory the U.S. acquired during the Mexican-American War only escalated the feud, sparking a major political debate over whether slavery would be allowed in the new territories. Both parties (each awkwardly uniting Northerners who disliked slavery with Southern slaveholders) had reason to seek safe candidates that year.

Still, many Whig loyalists mistrusted Taylor. He was crude, nonpartisan, unpresidential. Ohio Senator Thomas Corwin wondered how “sleeping 40 years in the woods and cultivating moss on the calves of his legs” qualified Taylor for the presidency. The great senator and former Secretary of State Daniel Webster called Taylor “an illiterate frontier colonel who hasn’t voted for 40 years.” Webster was so contemptuous he refused backroom deals to become Taylor’s running mate (unknowingly missing a chance to become president when Taylor died during his first term). Indeed, the biographer Holman Hamilton would pronounce Taylor “one of the strangest presidential candidates in all our annals … the first serious White House contender in history without the slightest experience in any sort of civil government.”

By the spring of 1848, now hungering for the nomination, Taylor tried mollifying these partisans. He professed his party loyalty in a ghostwritten letter that his brother-in-law John Allison knew to leak to the public. Still wary of making “pledges,” and boasting of his ignorance of political “details,” Taylor declared, “I am a Whig, but not an ultra Whig” in his first “Allison Letter” of April 22, 1848.

Taylor’s dithering annoyed the legendary ultra-Whig Henry Clay, who had lost a heartbreaking contest in 1844 to Polk and expected the 1848 nomination. “I wish I could slay a Mexican,” Clay grumbled, mocking celebrity soldiers not Hispanics. “The Whig party has been overthrown by a mere personal party,” he complained in June, vowing not to campaign if the party nominated this outsider. “Can I say that in [Taylor’s] hands Whig measures will be safe and secure, when he refused to pledge himself to their support?”

With Polk respecting his promise to serve only one term, at their convention in May the divided Democrats settled on General Lewis Cass, a former congressman, secretary of war and senator. The lumbering Michigander was considered a “doughface,” too malleable, a Northern man with Southern principles. His support for “popular sovereignty,” letting each new territory decide for itself on whether it would permit slavery, pleased the Democratic Party’s pro-slavery majority but infuriated abolitionists.

That June, during their convention at the Chinese Museum Building in Philadelphia the Whigs were torn over Taylor. On the first ballot, Taylor won 76 percent of the Southern vote, but 85 percent of the Northern delegates opposed him. A rival Mexican War hero, the Virginia-born General Winfield Scott, appealed to antislavery Whigs who hated Clay and Taylor because they were both slaveholders. On the fourth ballot, Taylor secured the nomination, beating Clay, Scott and Webster.

Taylor claimed he won on his own nonpartisan terms, without any promises. This victory signaled “confidence in my honesty, truthfulness and integrity never surpassed and rarely equaled [since George Washington],” Taylor boasted, 98 years before the originator of Trump-speak was born.

But the sectional animosity this outsider stirred was discouraging, especially since he was supposed to be capable of uniting the party and the nation. In the end, 62 percent of Taylor’s votes still came from Southern Whigs, who calculated that Taylor’s nomination would kill the abolitionist movement: “The political advantages which have been secured by Taylor’s nomination, are impossible to overestimate,” cheered one Southerner.

The nomination left many other Whigs dissatisfied. Even though the convention nominated the loyalist Millard Fillmore as vice president, many lamented that Taylor’s popularity had trumped party loyalty and principles. The party had not even drafted a platform for this undefined, unqualified leader. Horace Greeley of the New York Tribune pronounced the convention “a slaughterhouse of Whig principles.” The Jonesborough Whig did not know “which most to dispise, the vanity and insolence of Gen. Taylor, or the creeping servility” of the Whig Convention that nominated him.

Resisting pressure to run as an independent, but refusing to stump for Taylor, Henry Clay exclaimed, “I fear that the Whig party is dissolved and that no longer are there Whig principles to excite zeal and simulate exertion.” A New York Whig, claiming the convention “committed the double crime of suicide and paricide,” mourned, “The Whig party as such is dead. The very name will be abandoned, should Taylor be elected, for ‘the Taylor party.’”

And the party did indeed begin to dissolve. Almost immediately after the nomination, the self-proclaimed “Conscience Whigs” (anti-slavery Whigs) bolted, refusing to support a slaveholding candidate. Joining various other anti-slavery factions, including those that defected from the Democratic Party, the rebels formed The Free Soil Party and nominated former President Martin Van Buren.

Heading into the general election campaign, things didn’t look so good for Taylor. He started writing more and more letters crowing about his independence, disdaining party discipline, even saying he would have accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination too in his quest to be “president of the whole people.” His vanity and recklessness further dampened Whig enthusiasm.

But Fillmore’s desperate pleas to mollify alienated Whigs compelled Taylor to release a “Second Allison Letter” on September 4. In this missive, Taylor insisted he was following “good Whig doctrine” by saying “I would not be a partisan president and hence should not be a party candidate.” Taylor again hid behind his Army service, saying a soldier had to be nonpartisan, but also insisting everyone knew of his Whig inclinations. The letter “is precisely what we wanted,” Fillmore rejoiced. More important than Taylor’s words, the timing gave some Whigs an excuse to declare themselves satisfied. Even the New York Tribune’s Greeley eventually endorsed Taylor.

Meanwhile, in critical states like Ohio, Whig bosses and officeholders stressed “state matters” to stir local loyalties. And when it came to the divisive slavery issue, what the Democrats called the Whigs’ “two-faced” campaign worked: The Whigs in the South insisted that no slaveholder would abandon slavery, as Northern Whigs whispered that the passive Taylor would never veto a bill banning slavery in the new territories if it passed.

Blessed by an even more unpopular Democratic opponent whose party suffered more from the antislavery defections than the Whigs did, Taylor won—barely. He attracted only 47 percent of the popular vote, merely 60,000 more popular votes than Clay had in 1844, despite a population increase of 2 million. Turnout dropped from 78.9 percent in 1844 to 72.7 percent in 1848, reflecting public disgust with both candidates. Cass won 43 percent of the vote, and Van Buren won 10 percent. Taylor’s Electoral College margin of 36 was the slimmest in more than two decades. As hacks said the results “vindicated the wisdom of General Taylor’s nomination,” purists mourned the triumph of Taylor but not “our principles.” Greeley said losing in 1844 with a statesman like Clay strengthened Whig convictions: The 1848 election “demoralized” Whigs and undermined “the masses'” faith in the party. Greeley mourned this Pyrrhic victory: Whigs were “at once triumphant and undone.”
Greeley turned out to be right. Taylor was the last Whig president. His nomination had attempted to paper over the sectional tensions that would kill the party, but ultimately exacerbated them. Running a war hero mocked the Whig’s anti-war stand just as running a slaveholder failed to calm the divisive slavery issue. And, as a nonpartisan outsider, Taylor proved particularly unsuited to manage these internal party battles once elected.

Most dispiriting, Taylor, who made no pledges and had no principles, gave rank-and-file Whig voters nothing to champion, while alienating many of the most committed loyalists. In The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party, the historian Michael Holt notes that Taylor’s victory triggered an “internal struggle for the soul of the Whig party”: was it more committed to seizing power or upholding principle? Underlying that debate was also a deeper question, still pressing today, about the role of fame, popularity, celebrity, in presidential campaigning—and American political leadership.

Unfortunately for the wobbling Whigs, Southerners then felt betrayed when Taylor took a nationalist approach brokering what became the Compromise of 1850. As a result, Holt writes, “Within a year of Taylor’s victory, hopes raised by Whigs’ performance in 1848 would be dashed. Within four years, they would be routed by” the Democrats. “Within eight, the Whig party would totally disappear as a functioning political organization.”

Neither destiny nor sorcery, history offers warning signs to avoid and points of light for inspiration. America’s modern two-party system is remarkably resilient. Republicans have recently enjoyed a surge in gubernatorial, congressional and state legislative wins. Still, Trump and the Republicans might want to study 1848 to see the damage even a winning insurgent can both signal and cause. And many Republicans might want to consider what is worse: the institutional problems mass defections by “Conscience Republicans” could bring about—or the moral ruin that could come from the ones who stay behind, choosing to pursue party power over principles.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2...al-party-213935

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The Whig party failed because they were basically the same as the democrats, which is almost what we have now. We have democrat and democrat lite. Both are leading this country to ruin.

If Trump is able to turn around the economy, the republican party will survive. If he tanks it like obama, the party will fail. A lot of republicans have been ticked off at the party for a long time. They are no longer a group of fiscal conservatives. They are a group of slightly conservative progressives with some true conservatives sprinkled in. I think the people are looking for something different.

If it fails, it fails. Don't forget Jefferson's quote, "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." I just hope there is no blood spilt this time.


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The economy is going to tank for the next president. Neither one will be reelected. I wish people were more active during the primaries and off year elections for governors and senators. The next president is not going to fix this mess.

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I agree.
The next President will have a boat load of stupid to fix, inherited from Obama.

Obama came into office and the Nation was a glass half empty.
He is leaving office, having spent $10 Trillion dollars, and the Nation is now a glass half full.

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I know this is a TV show, but I feel it's pretty accurate on ISIS.

https://youtu.be/Ct3BsyF64gM

We don't really have a strategy and ISIS has had a "strategy" for centuries. Either we keep troops in the Middle East forever and try to "westernize" them or just nuke them and be done. This war is worse than Vietnam. Back then it was fighting against communism. Now it's fighting against Islamic extremism.

Where I disagree with Trump is that he thinks scaring them by hurting their families will fix it. These people do not care what happens to them or their families. They will see their families as just being casualties of a cause. Hillarys strategy of taking out their leaders is idiotic. It's like trying to kill a Hydra. Cut off one head, you'll have several more pop up.

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ISIS and Putin will be old news as we will be using a weapon on them which they have not faced in nearly a decade...

Leadership.

Trump! thumbsup

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These people aren't afraid to die. They don't cower in fear of us. We are just a sign of the end times and they're willing to die for it.

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Originally Posted By: candyman92
These people aren't afraid to die. They don't cower in fear of us. We are just a sign of the end times and they're willing to die for it.


You couldn't be more wrong. Most of the stuff these people pulled would not have happened if we had strong leadership instead of a weak President and a Secretary of State who sold out her office with favors to International Donors. They were emboldened by our weakness.

When Reagan drew a line, no one dared cross it because it would have cost them everything.

Just the fact Reagan was elected was enough to make Iran release our hostages after years of laughing at Carter.

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And you don't realize what we are actually fighting against. You believe that these people think the same way you do. As if they use rationale line of logic and thinking. These people are prepared to run at a charging tank with a bomb strapped to their vest. They've managed to brainwash freaking kids to do this stuff.

Yet you think they'll be scared because of a few soldiers firing missles and some bombs at them? They truly believe that when they die, they go to heaven and will be with their families. This is their blaze of glory.

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Originally Posted By: candyman92
And you don't realize what we are actually fighting against. These people are prepared to run at a charging tank with a bomb strapped to their vest. They've managed to brainwash freaking kids to do this stuff.



Sounds like the Japanese, North Koreans and Vietcong.

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j/c:

Are y'all talking about what Excel intended or are you just bad-mouthing the other side again?

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And you fail to realize they are Human Beings, not unlike any Humans we have faced in the past. The only difference with them is that you fear them. You are intimidated by them.

We proved with the Nazi's and the Japanese that in spite of determination, focus and fanaticism, there is no such thing as a superior human.

They can be killed, bribed, turned against each other internally and played for their own human weaknesses.

Leadership will win the day for us.

Trump! thumbsup

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
j/c:

Are y'all talking about what Excel intended or are you just bad-mouthing the other side again?


We have been waiting for you to do that.

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And we didn't have to wait long for "the sides" to ruin yet another thread.

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Then why is that they have been doing this for centuries?

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Because they have been keeping it among themselves for centuries.

Now they are involving us. We will crush them once we have the Leadership we lack.

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This was a great read, and something that I've been thinking would take place for a few months now.

I truly hope that a genuine small government party is born out of all this chaos.

Thanks for posting.


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I would love to see a true 3 party system where it's not an either or choice. I would also love to see a candidate for president who is not a lawyer or professional politician that is bought and paid for.


You can't fix stupid but you can destroy ignorance. When you destroy ignorance you remove the justifications for evil. If you want to destroy evil then educate our people. Hate is a tool of the stupid to deal with what they can't understand.
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A third Party does nothing more than steal votes from one of the major Parties.

If the third Party is Conservative it steals from the Republicans and gives victory to the Democrats.

If Liberal, it steals from the Democrats and gives the victory to the Republicans.

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Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
I agree.
The next President will have a boat load of stupid to fix, inherited from Obama.

Obama came into office and the Nation was a glass half empty.
He is leaving office, having spent $10 Trillion dollars, and the Nation is now a glass half full.


Say what you will, but you and I remember 2008 and 2009 totally differently. The US was a mess thanks to Bush and his wars. And to think, I'm one of those that voted for the loser twice..


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"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
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Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
A third Party does nothing more than steal votes from one of the major Parties.

If the third Party is Conservative it steals from the Republicans and gives victory to the Democrats.

If Liberal, it steals from the Democrats and gives the victory to the Republicans.


I got news for you 40, the Democratic Party does not reflect the values of most liberals today... that's a myth. I think it's the same for real conservatives in the Republican Party.

The Oligarchy has twisted the parties into fear mongering hate machines that only reflect the agendas of the inner-Oligarchy disputes. Real Americans have no representation in this government. It's all lies.

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Time for another Boston Tea Party of sorts


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Originally Posted By: OldColdDawg
I got news for you 40, the Democratic Party does not reflect the values of most liberals today... that's a myth. I think it's the same for real conservatives in the Republican Party.

The Oligarchy has twisted the parties into fear mongering hate machines that only reflect the agendas of the inner-Oligarchy disputes. Real Americans have no representation in this government. It's all lies.


You could be right. The Democrats could fracture just as easily as the Republicans could, especially with the leak that Hillary basically stole the election from Bernie Sanders.

I agree about the inner-oligarchy part too. And that's what could lead to the Whig-like implosion of either party. If either candidate gets elected and then proceeds to watch Rome burn, the next election is going to see the other party win in a landslide. At that point, if the other party tries to stand behind their failed candidate, rather than stick to their party principles, it could very easily trigger a mass exodus to some new party to try and distance themselves from the failure.

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Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
A third Party does nothing more than steal votes from one of the major Parties.

If the third Party is Conservative it steals from the Republicans and gives victory to the Democrats.

If Liberal, it steals from the Democrats and gives the victory to the Republicans.


....and that my friends is what the major parties have created and brainwashed us to believe. People are afraid to vote for anyone but the big 2 because they hate the opposing party so much they're willing to overlook the dastardly deeds of crooks like Hillary or Trump.


And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir

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No, this is only common sense, not fear.

I watched it here in Virginia when Terry McAuliffe ran as the Democrat and we had a Republican and a Conservative Independent run. Guess who became Gov.

I watched it when Bush-1 and Perot split enough of the vote to put in Clinton.

I have seen it time and time again.

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Quote:
I have seen it time and time again.


That makes my point more than disputes it.


And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir

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So to you, everyone is just a basket of brainwashed Deplorables.

Got it.

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Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
So to you, everyone is just a basket of brainwashed Deplorables.

Got it.


No, just the ones clamoring for change and then doing the same thing over and over.


And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir

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Jfan is just tired of his party not representing him.

If Hillary loses, you're going to see someone extremely liberal from the left in 2020. Almost borderline socialist like Bernie. That's not good for republicans, because Trump is being set up to fail the next 4 years. You even admitted it yourself. That will create the perfect storm for a person who believes in Bernies philosophies to step in.

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Originally Posted By: jfanent
Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
So to you, everyone is just a basket of brainwashed Deplorables.

Got it.


No, just the ones clamoring for change and then doing the same thing over and over.


I think that Clinton is just more and more of the same.

Trump is something different. (though he is also unacceptable to me) It's not because he is "the same" as the career politicians we have had run every 4 years. I just have a hard time believing that he will do anything he has proposed, and because he changes what he will do, and what he has done, depending on what day of the week it is.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I can see that, but there is absolutely no hope of a change of direction from Hillary.

I gotta try. I can change my mind in 4 years and put in a different boob.

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Originally Posted By: candyman92
I know this is a TV show, but I feel it's pretty accurate on ISIS.

https://youtu.be/Ct3BsyF64gM

We don't really have a strategy and ISIS has had a "strategy" for centuries. Either we keep troops in the Middle East forever and try to "westernize" them or just nuke them and be done. This war is worse than Vietnam. Back then it was fighting against communism. Now it's fighting against Islamic extremism.

Where I disagree with Trump is that he thinks scaring them by hurting their families will fix it. These people do not care what happens to them or their families. They will see their families as just being casualties of a cause. Hillarys strategy of taking out their leaders is idiotic. It's like trying to kill a Hydra. Cut off one head, you'll have several more pop up.

Scott Adams wrote about ISIS recently (I know I have posted entirely too much of his stuff already.) I'm just posting this here as an FYI, I do read his blog and I think it is an interesting take. Maybe others can elaborate on it.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151056198611/the-wall-around-isis

Quote:
The Wall Around ISIS

Turkey is almost finished building its wall to keep out Syrian refugees. That seals off the ISIS Caliphate’s Northern border. See this map to refresh your memory on the geography.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is building a “bad-ass” wall along its entire border with Iraq. Jordan has plans for its own wall, for the same reason. And we can assume that Israel and Iran will be improving their border control too, if any improvement is needed.

The United States and Russia can – if they want – seal off the coast of Syria with warships and drones and digital surveillance. Better yet, let Russia and its Syrian client (now much smaller than it was) build its own wall to keep ISIS from having ocean access.

After all of the walls are built to “keep out refugees” you will – by no coincidence whatsoever – also have a wall that “keeps in ISIS.” That’s the real story here.

The future of the ISIS Caliphate has been clear (to me) since at least 2003 when I wrote my sequel to God’s Debris, titled The Religion War. In the book, I predicted the rise of a Caliphate in that general area, endless “small” terrorist attacks in the United States, and the eventual walling-in of the Caliphate to stop the “idea” of ISIS from spreading.

Here’s how you kill an idea:

Step one: Quarantine the idea. (Build a wall around it.)

Step two: Remove all digital communications from the area.

Step three: Remove any foreign press in the zone so there are no witnesses to war crimes.

Step four: Depopulate the Caliphate over time by removing trusted women and children and killing everyone else. I don’t recommend any of this, by the way. I’m only predicting it will happen, as I have since 2003. If you have been watching my Trump-related predictions, you might recognize that I used the same filter – persuasion – to predict the rise of the caliphate and the eventual walling-off.

If you take a purely military approach to ISIS, you never kill the idea that is at its core. You might even strengthen it. Persuasion is the only weapon that can make a difference. And to persuade, first you must control the conversation. You can only do that by physically and digitally quarantining the entire Caliphate. Otherwise there will always be too much idea-leakage.

We also need persuasion tools to deter crazy loners from self-radicalizing. But that’s a separate persuasion process. The most important strategy involves blocking all communication into and out of the ISIS Caliphate. Once you brand ISIS as a loser – by totally controlling the stories coming from that zone – you can mop up the self-radicalizers over time.

That’s how you kill an idea virus as strong as ISIS. There really isn’t any other option. I believe most trained persuaders would agree.

Another key part of my prediction is that the Caliphate will start to weaponize hobby-sized drones for attacks all over the world. When that nightmare starts – and you know it will – expect to never hear another press report from the Caliphate, because that’s when the depopulating will begin.

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Step two: Remove all digital communications from the area.

Step three: Remove any foreign press in the zone so there are no witnesses to war crimes.

^^^ hands down the dumbest suggestions ever.

like...ever.


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Build a wall around it?

Yeah, that sounds familiar.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Interesting how those Nations you mention are building walls.
I know Israel has had great success with their wall to separate themselves from the Palestinians.

Walls don't stop everything but they seem to go a long way in creating control over an area.

Last edited by 40YEARSWAITING; 10/06/16 04:37 PM.
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Originally Posted By: Swish
Step two: Remove all digital communications from the area.

Step three: Remove any foreign press in the zone so there are no witnesses to war crimes.

^^^ hands down the dumbest suggestions ever.

like...ever.

This is why I rarely quote one specific part of somebody's post and usually quote the entire thing instead. Context.

Quote:
Step four: Depopulate the Caliphate over time by removing trusted women and children and killing everyone else. I don’t recommend any of this, by the way. I’m only predicting it will happen, as I have since 2003.

There is often a difference between predicting something to happen and wanting/encouraging it to happen. Clearly he does not want it to happen and neither do I. But it's an interesting prediction and one idea as to how the whole situation might unfold. I guess we'll see sometime in the future whether or not he is accurate.

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Originally Posted By: 40YEARSWAITING
Interesting how those Nations you mention are building walls.
I know Israel has had great success with their wall to separate themselves from the Palestinians.

Walls don't stop everything but they seem to go a long way in creating control over an area.

Of course. Both presidential candidates know this. Trump has doubled down.. ok quadrupled down on it.. whereas Hillary has softened her stance in order to win votes.



"Look, I voted numerous times when I was a senator to spend money to build a barrier to try to prevent illegal immigrants from coming in"

"I voted for border security, and some of it was a fence. I don't think we ever called it a wall... Maybe in some places it was a wall."

- Hillary Clinton

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i read the whole thing.

dunno why you felt the need to imply that i didn't for context.

cause your boy also said this:


"That’s how you kill an idea virus as strong as ISIS. There really isn’t any other option"

except there IS plenty of other options.

which almost invalidates the entire article.

to even suggest to turn a blind eye to war crimes is disgusting. IMO, of course.

but that's what happens when certain individuals want to dehumanize anything that isn't like them.





Last edited by Swish; 10/06/16 04:52 PM.

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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
Build a wall around it?

Yeah, that sounds familiar.

Whether or not you think it is a good idea, what he wrote *is* happening.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-turkey-...ial-says-2016-9

http://gizmodo.com/saudi-arabia-is-building-a-600-mile-wall-along-the-iraq-1685196732

The Chancellor of Germany has already expressed regret for letting so many immigrants and refugees in the country. There has been backlash from many European countries in fact, and that was one of many issues that led to the United Kingdom exiting the EU. Some Eastern European countries have steadfastly refused to accept any refugees whatsoever. So part of that writer's prediction absolutely has come true. The scarier latter part of that prediction, I hope that does not happen, but it remains to be seen.

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Originally Posted By: Swish
i read the whole thing.

dunno why you felt the need to imply that i didn't for context.

cause your boy also said this:


"That’s how you kill an idea virus as strong as ISIS. There really isn’t any other option"

except there IS plenty of other options.

which almost invalidates the entire article.

to even suggest to turn a blind eye to war crimes is disgusting. IMO, of course.

but that's what happens when certain individuals want to dehumanize anything that isn't like them.





I agree with you on the humanitarian aspect. I do not wish to see any war crimes committed.

I just put that out there for discussion. His ideas are interesting and frankly more intelligent than what our strategy has been in the Middle East for however many years.

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