DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum HOW THE CLEVELAND BROWNS CAN COMPETE IN 2017

It’s the start of Week 12 in the NFL, and the Cleveland Browns are officially eliminated from playoff contention—as if we needed the mathematical certainty. The NFL’s lone winless team, Cleveland is having a rough go in 2016, to say the least. While a big zero in the win column will bring out a lot of negativity around the franchise, and rightfully so, not all is bad at Browns headquarter.

Much of the blame for the season has been placed on the front-office decision-makers, including Executive VP Sashi Brown and Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta. While those two are the main decision-makers on how the roster looks, gutting a team that went 3-13 and rebuilding through the draft is why the Browns are winless thus far—but not the reason to waiver in faith in the plan the front office has set in motion. They understood where this roster was after years of failed drafts, first-round busts, and patchwork free-agent signings—all factors behind the team’s consistent mediocracy. No NFL team has ever sustained success by keeping old players past their prime, signing free agents to big-money deals based on past production, and trading away draft picks for the shot at a franchise player.

The first major decision by the front office was to sign Robert Griffin III and trade back in the draft for a haul of future picks, passing on Carson Wentz. The move was instantly criticized and continues to get receive heat based on how this season has played out. Meanwhile, second-overall pick Carson Wentz started the season on fire with the Philadelphia Eagles, earning the NFL’s highest grade among QBs through his first five games of the season, sporting an impressive 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio.

This made the decision to pass on Wentz look really bad, but if you consider that NFL defensive coordinators typically need four games of film on a quarterback to learn his weaknesses, Wentz was ripe for regression, and regress he did. In his last five games, the Philadelphia QB has graded as the sixth-worst QB in the league, with a four-to-six TD-to-INT ratio, and a passer rating worse than that of Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At this point, we don’t know if Wentz will be a top-tier QB in the NFL, but to immediately write off the Cleveland front office based on a quarter of a season’s work from a player they passed on is short-sighted.

This team clearly intends to build through the draft, and has stockpiled picks for that purpose, but they aren’t afraid to use some of that collateral to secure a proven star if one is available. A third-round pick for a versatile linebacker like former Patriot Jamie Collins is a steal; even if they are unable to sign Collins to a long-term deal, or decide not to place the franchise tag on him, Cleveland will still get a third-round compensatory pick in 2018, receiving exactly what they traded for him.

Offseason to-do list
Looking at the offseason to-do list for the Browns, keeping both Collins and WR Terrelle Pryor is essential. Pryor has made an incredible transition from failed backup quarterback to legitimate receiving threat out wide; opposing defenses often roll coverage to his side to limit the damage the former Ohio State Buckeye can do. Currently owning the league’s 14th-highest overall grade among WRs, there is no telling what a stable QB situation could do for Pryor’s production.

Equally important to retaining Collins and Pryor is nailing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. The Browns are obviously on the path to receiving the top pick, something they haven’t had since 2000 when they whiffed, taking DE Courtney Brown and passing on stars such as Chris Samuels and Brian Urlacher. While the Browns traded back twice in the 2016 draft and set themselves up for future drafts, they have a golden opportunity to land a generational talent in Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett or Alabama DE Jonathan Allen. Don’t overthink it—just take Garrett or Allen and build a defense around him.

While we at Pro Football Focus loved what the Browns did in the 2016 draft, expecting that haul of picks all to succeed at the same time is unrealistic. Injuries have forced rookies into action much sooner than expected, and the results have not been good. 10 rookies have seen multiple starts and have over 200 snaps apiece. Patience is needed when viewing this draft class.

While the on-field production has been poor this year, not everything is as bad as it might seem. The offensive line is actually a strength—when healthy. Critics will point to quarterback injuries and blame them on poor O-line play, but that isn’t the case here, as the unit ranks 19th in pass-blocking efficiency this season, at 76.8. While the sack (19) and QB hit (24) numbers are high, so is the number of passing snaps (456)—third-most in the NFL this season.

Heading into Week 11, PFF ranked Cleveland’s offensive line as ninth-best in the NFL; most Browns fans will immediately roll their eyes at that. Go watch the Vikings, Seahawks, Colts, and 49ers offensive lines, and see what really bad O-line play looks like. Outside of Cam Erving, the Browns’ unit is average-to-elite in its makeup.

On offense, the obvious question mark is still at quarterback, but even Cody Kessler, a rookie who wasn’t expected to play any snaps this season, has exceeded expectations. Through Week 11, Kessler has been one of the more accurate passers in the league, ranking sixth in adjusted completion percentage, first in adjusted completion percentage under pressure, and fourth in passer rating under pressure. It’s worth noting, however, that Kessler brings a good amount of pressure on himself by holding onto the ball too long in many situations (also making the O-line look much worse than it is). Overall, Kessler is still an unknown quantity at this point, but we have seen positives in his first season.

On defense, second-year defensive tackle Danny Shelton has flourished after a shaky rookie season. His development should be a lesson for Cleveland fans that rookies and young players need time to learn and develop in the NFL. Shelton has graded out as one of the better interior defenders in the NFL this season, excelling in run defense, where he ranks second with 32 run stops.

The Browns will absolutely be better in 2017, as they’ve already held fourth-quarter leads in several games this season. Another year of experience goes a long way towards learning to finish games. Several rookies have shown flashes of great play, and they need to build upon that with the help of head coach Hue Jackson and his staff. Remember that the coaches are also learning what their players do—and don’t do—well.

With a young nucleus of front-seven defenders playing well in Shelton, Emmanuel Ogbah (playing well as a pass-rusher), Collins, and Chris Kirksey and a defensive backfield with the likes of CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun—who leads all NFL rookies in total pass disruptions (two interceptions, four passes breakups)—and CB Jamar Taylor, grading as the 15th best CB since Week 3, the Browns’ defense has some of the pieces in place to be successful once they start gelling together as a unit.

It may look bleak for Cleveland fans now, and yes, the front office has to hit on their draft picks they’ve stockpiled, but there are clear reasons for optimism for the future. While the team could have as many as four wins at this point in the season, winning games in 2016 means nothing in 2017 and beyond when the team hopes to compete in the AFC North—and beyond. With the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals all regressing because of relatively poor recent drafts, the Browns are setting themselves up for long-term success, not one-year feel good stories.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-how-the-cleveland-browns-can-compete-in-2017/

now I don't know about anybody else, but reading something that doesn't just say how bad we are is refreshing. 2017 4 wins, 2018 8 wins, 2019...well ya know

Nice read, and I agree, it is refreshing to read something positive. I've been telling friends, this is the most confident I've felt in a long, long time that we might be heading in the right direction.

We just need to nail the draft next year.

yes nailing the draft is going to be hyper critical...Garrett or Allen should be a no brainer.

It would take elephant guns for us to be more competitive maybe, but the NFL probably frowns on that too.

Maybe if we could have like 14 on defense.

Kidding. This draft better be major good.

As always, it seems....



...waiting for next year (sighs).

That article didn't make very much sense to me. The part about signing RGIII and not taking Wentz was weird. They diss Wentz and ignore what happened w/RGIII.

I have strong concerns w/the plan. Losing a ton of games is not good for a football team. Fans are already calling for guys to get fired. What will happen next year when we lose double digit games again?

We did not acquire any impact players. We got guys.

not sure I follow you on the weird part. We did sign RGIII and then passed on Wentz when we traded back...kinda sounds like what we did.

Building through the draft is the stated plan. We'll see next off season if they truly mean that or not.

no impact players? not so sure....hell I was saying that about Shelton this off season...glad he made strides this year. and hoping some of our rooks do the same next year...time will tell.

So keep our players that are good and draft good players?

Crazy.

it's looney I know, but it just might work.

By weird ............I meant that they criticized how much Wentz has done for Philly while not mentioning what RGIII has given to Cleveland.

I don't care how biased you are, you can't tell me that RGIII has out-performed Wentz this year and that he has the brighter future.

Yeah, like Mack, Schwartz, Gipson, and Benji.

not even close. RGIII cant stay on the field and I was sorta high on him coming here.

lol touche' my friend.

As bad as the Browns are this year with big needs in Oline, DBs, Pass rush and QB; the layout of talent in this next draft almost demands that you take the BPA with no focus on need to hit in this draft.

With all of our draft picks, I wonder how many college kids are afraid they will get drafted by the Browns.

Hard to be optimistic when the team can't win a single game.

I think this is a very good point.

I was reading some of the draft posts and who to draft. In our case, I think the Browns should go w/their top-rated guy on their Vertical board and ignore the Horizontal board w/that pick. After that, they can use both. But, w/pick 1-1, choose the BPA.

RG111 can't out-perform anyone because he never plays. Also, I do agree and have said it before, we do need to take BPA in next years draft. I would go BPA in both the 1st and 2nd rounds. In our case it's got to be a need somewhere.

we could compete if the nfl did a complete re-draft. were so far behind everyone we might be the first team to go 0-32

What a great shirt! So sad and true. Unfortunately, WFNY= MOTS (More of the Same).

I had hoped to see better progress. This FO has seemingly stacked the deck to oppose that thus far. I still hope to see improvement. Some have, I admit. We are seeing little variety in how we are getting beaten. Whether that is talent, game plan, calls, youth, lack of adjustment, I am not sure. I feel all of the above, just taking turns. But I would add stooped play, mental issues, and just a lack of ferocity. I will give it time, and I remain a fan. But that means more of the same. We will go down in history unless I miss my guess. Wonder what we get in exchange?

He did outperform Wentz! You should have seen him on the x-box at the hospital after game one.

Now watch as Hollywood Higgins outperforms AJ Green this week.

This team could very well compete next year with the draft picks and the cap money. Any good or even average GM could at least get enough talent with the resources we have to be very competitive. With that said, it hasn't been very promising with the Harvard Analytical Moneyballers...to say the least. We'll see. They can't afford to miss much in this next draft and they have to be willing to spend some money in FA. That's the only way. Otherwise, I think it gets blown up again for 2018.

I never rule out the possibility of our 1st round pick pulling an Eli Manning and refusing to sign. I half expect to happen at some point in time.

I think that sums it up nicely.

This thread is about the Browns competing in 2017 and beyond, none of those players will be on the team.

I'd appreciate it if you tried to stay on the thread topic.

I'd add Ward and Sheard to that list.

Wasn't sure where to put this and didn't want to start a new thread.

Refreshing article!

I think the comment on Wentz is a comment about judging the Brwons FO talent evaluation. Namely as good as Wentz looked weeks 1-5 ... when it is very easy to say the Browns whiffed on a once in decade type QB, the reality is that since then, he's played much more like a mere mortal rookie QB. If Wentz isn't the sure fire top 5 QB in the league like everyone thought he looked at one time - then maybe it's too early to give the Browns an F on the Wentz trade ... that's my take away from that. Obviously Coleman and the Philly pick this year that we have will eventually be part of that equation too. For myself I haven''t seen Wentz play since game 5 - last time I saw him (I watched 2 whole games early season) he certainly looked amazing for a Rookie QB, and I'd be stunned if he regressed over the next 2 years to anything less than a really good QB! Add to that ... if we had Wentz, regardless of his ceiling, we wouldn't be going into the next draft with a huge ? at the most important position on the field.

Agree with many - I want to see the team take the best player available. I hope we keep Collins and Pryor. Hopefully Pryor has some emotional connection to Hue who coached him in Oakland and had a hand in his move to WR and who seemingly has helped him realize some of his potential. . . . if we have to overpay for Collins - so be it. I don't care. Dude looks like he has game changing talent. I might question overpaying for players like Schwartz or Benji - Collins I wouldn't hesitate.

I don't hate the plan - tinkering with what we had might have yielded more wins but I don't think there was a core of players or attitude to get us to the Playoffs. A total rebuild from top to bottom was what many seemed to call for - it seems that maybe the taste of that is more unpleasant than some (including myself probably) thought.... but having started on the plan, let's give it a chance to succeed.

As others have pointed out - who here would have forecast Shelton's performance this year? And to my mind his job is made more difficult by the rest of the defense. Is it purely a second year improvement? Does it indicate we have coaching ability to improve young talent now (something I don't remember seeing in the last 16 years) .... So who is going to be next years players to take a big step forward? If the plan is going to work that has to happen.

At this point it is a huge "if" or a huge unknown - and I understand why some might have little or not faith - but in order to get back to 5-7 wins next year and leaving the QB out of it for a moment .... some significant improvement from 3 of these 5 guys in their second year - Corey Coleman (+ stay healthy) - Emmanuel Ogbah - Carl Nassib - Shon Coleman - Joe Schobert .... and the difference could be very noticeable. If Emmanuel, Nassib or Schobert improve and end up playing alongside a new elite DE (Garrett or Allen) then it will amp up the impact. If just one of the WR's we took ends up coming through - it'd be a bonus, but I am not hopeful of that.

Find at least one safety a CB and a new center. . . . we have a chance to be playing some decent football in year 2 of the rebuild. It's not an impossible task imo.

Ward is overpaid and looks good in a great defense, but was quite average in ours...Sheard is a backup to a young guy on a team who just traded us our best defensive player...Gipson is invisible on a (2) win team with a whopping (21) tackles and (1) pick while being ridiculously overpaid (Ed Reynolds II has (17) tackles)...Benji is being paid like a #2 but is the highest paid 4th receiver in the league and has (3) fumbles...Mack didn't want to be here anymore...Schwartz is the ONLY guy on that list who we goofed on. (I might agree on Ward if he wasn't so overpaid.)

People keep throwing out those names as if those guys would be difference-makers here or are killing it on their new teams. The ONLY guy we screwed the pooch on was Schwartz - because we had no shot at keeping Mack.

In the end, our problem is the incredible number of busts we've drafted over the past two decades...everything else pales in comparison to that. There are plenty of things that justify bashing the various regimes over, but for the most part the players listed in this thread aren't part of that justification.

I completely agree. Schwartz would have been good to retain.

I hope we can reach a deal with Collins or we tag him, although the prospect of a compensatory 3rd in 2018 may be too much (I don't see how a 3rd would be anywhere near the talent level Collins have...).

Pryor is a must sign. Pay the man. He is a superstar in making. My gosh - if Josh ever got his head on, with Coleman, we would have a seriously potent arsenal of receiving weapons.

If 4 of the rookies we drafted become good players, we are on the way. Complement that with 2, 3 or more who stick around and contribute. Our fallacy is that our draftees are often either out of the league or with other teams before their rookie deals run out. We need to start having the nice problem of trying to keep the guys who are contributing and making a difference.

I'm hopeful we will see 3 or 4 guys making the leap next year - for me, that would be Ogbah, Nassib, Coleman and Calhoun. If we can draft best available talent, like has been said, and keep improving the talent level, it will start to achieve its own momentum.

Stick to the schemes, coaches, see what continuity can do. Give the darned thing a chance to grow.

Not everyone is an All-Pro. Letting guys walk is how we end up with crappy players starting and/or playing a huge number of snaps.

I agree with that. Good teams are full of good players.

I don't know how all of this is going to end, but I am willing to see it out. What other course do I have....quit rooting for the team?

Agreed. We are 0 and 11 and people wanna diss guys we let go. Weird.

We are in no position to say of good players who left "Well, he's overpaid." Any good team is going to have some underpaid guys and some overpaid guys. We don't have a $20M quarterback. We have a ton of cap space. What are we going to do, let a guy like Bitonio go at the end of his rookie contract so we don't "overpay" him? I guess we want a playoff team and a roster of guys making only their exact market value or less.

Let who walk? Let's talk about the actual guy(s). I'm talking about specific players in this thread. That said, I agree with what you are saying, just not on EVERY guy we are debating. Paying average players way more $$$ than they are worth is basically what we've done STR. That hasn't worked out well.

Of course we will sign - or attempt to sign - the players that we want to keep. In this thread though, we are using specific guys as examples of mistakes and those examples simply don't justify the blanket statements being made.

Keeping JAGS (just a guy) like Gipson and paying him top FS money would have been stupid. Same with paying Benji like a #2.

I've acknowledged that we should have done a better job with Schwartz - regardless of who was ultimately at fault. Nothing we could do about Mack. I'd say we tried to re-sign those guys...didn't happen. The other guys? Who cares? Either overrated or overpaid.

We have a lot of guys "up" for new deals this off-season, let's see who they sign, who they try to sign, and who they don't try to sign.

Diss guys? I stated they were overrated and/or overpaid. They are...that's a fact. You learned that the last time we debated the value of Gipson.

We could have allocated big $$$ to those guys as a big "thank you" for helping deliver those awesome 4 win seasons. If those guys could have been signed for reasonable deals, we should absolutely have kept them as they are guys who can play - something we need more of. Just not for the money they could get.

Well, that, and a penchant for trading down. We will, at some point, need to cash out all the lower picks and new rookies. I don't see a bunch of salvation in that page of the plan. Just not much confidence in this process as we handle it. Still, expecting the worst while hoping for the best.

No. He's actually worth being paid like a guy near the top at his position. Unlike many guys being discussed in this thread.



We are overpaying plenty of guys...just not paying them like guys in the top tier at their positions.

Other guys we DID NOT overpay / bother-to-keep:
Dansby
Whitner
Kruger

We've basically let all of our free agents leave over the past several off-seasons. We let Ward go and used similar money to sign Whitner (who is out of the league). That is now a huge hole on our defense.

Things like that erode the talent level on the team.