DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Drafting QBs in the first round - A historical perspective since 2000

I've made a post about this in the past, but I still see people clamoring for us to take a QB in the First Round because we really need one. I've sort of broken this down before, but I looked up some statistics to give a little backing to what I've always stated.

At any rate, here are all the QBs that topped 3500 yards this year. Statistically, I think we could all agree it would be nice to have a QB that could actually do that consistently:

1 Drew Brees 5,208
2 Matt Ryan 4,944
3 Kirk Cousins 4,917
4 Aaron Rodgers 4,428
5 Philip Rivers 4,386
6 Matthew Stafford 4,327
7 Joe Flacco 4,317
8 Andrew Luck 4,240
9 Carson Palmer 4,233
10 Russell Wilson 4,219
11 Andy Dalton 4,206
12 Jameis Winston 4,090
13 Eli Manning 4,027
14 Derek Carr 3,937
15 Blake Bortles 3,905
16 Sam Bradford 3,877
17 Ben Roethlisberger 3,819
18 Carson Wentz 3,782
19 Dak Prescott 3,667
20 Tom Brady 3,554
21 Cam Newton 3,509
22 Alex Smith 3,502


Just about every one of these guys fits into one of three categories:

THE NUMBER ONES:

These are guys that were consensus number one picks the year they came out, and in some cases the #2 pick that occurred right after another consensus #1 pick. That includes Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz (who went #2 after a #1 QB pick).

Historically, since the year 2000, that would also include: Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin, JaMarcus Russel, David Carr and Mike Vick. Outside of a couple busts here and there, these were generally pretty solid performers, if not outright stars. There aren't a whole lot of terrible "reaches" here, outside of maybe the 4 QBs taken the last two years, but the jury is still out on those guys.


THE GOOD SITUATION GUYS:

Here you have the guys that started their first year, but walked into a great situation in regards to having a stout Defense and strong run game. Here's the list of those guys with the year they were drafted with positon, and the Rankings of their Defense and Rushing Offense that year:

Matt Ryan 2008 1/3 - Def 9th, Rushing 2nd
Joe Flacco 2008 1/18- Def 2nd, Rush 4th
Russel Wilson 2012 3/12 - Def 4th, Rush 3rd
Ben Roeth, 2004 1/11 - Def 1st, Rush 2nd
Dak Prescott 2016 4/37 - Def 14th, Rush 2nd

Some of these guys have been mentioned as QBs we "should of taken, but they really walked into ideal situations as far as having a team around them. Something we can't say we've had the luxury of in quite some time.


THE BENCH WARMERS:

These are the guys that rode the pine, usually behind an established QB, while they took the time to learn the playbook and adapt to a system. Usually, provided by the same coaching staff for most of those years (Also, something we can't say we've had the luxury of). Here's those guys, with the year they were drafted and the year they started playing significant minutes:

Drew Brees, 2001 - 2005
Kirk Cousins, 2012 - 2015
Aaron Rodgers, 2005 - 2008
Phillip Rivers, 2004 - 2006
Tom Brady, 2000 - 2001

Most of these guys sat for 2+ seasons before coming onto the scene and taking over. Brady is the only one who sat for just a year, but he also walked into a pretty good situation with a Bill Belichick defense and decent run game.

Brees also get a special note, as he started his first season, but did terribly. He was eventually benched in favor of Doug Flutie and spent the better part of two seasons studying from the bench.

Tony Romo also fits here historically. He went undrafted, but sat on the bench for several years before being plugged in and taking over.


THE OUTLIERS:

Now, these are the guys that don't exactly fit into one of those categories. We have to look at these guys more individually:

Derek Carr: Drafted in the 2nd round/4th pick, but you have to wonder if his brother's name hurt his draft stock any. The Raiders' Defense and Rushing rankings are in the 20's, so they did him no favors there, but he was still able to succeed quite well despite starting straight after the draft.

Blake Bortles: Drafted in the 1st round/3rd pick. He's put up good stats, but ask any Jags fan how frustrating he is to watch. His team is also ranked in the 20's for Defense and Rushing, so maybe it's no surprise that he's struggled at times.

Any Dalton: Drafted in the 2nd round/3rd pick. He struggled quite a bit in his first few years before finally hitting his stride and becoming a competent QB. One thing to note about these three QBs is that they do have some decent receiving targets to throw to as well, so the cupboard isn't entirely bare for them.


EVERYONE ELSE:

Now, if you look at the remainder of QBS that were drafted in the first round since 2000, it's a who's-who of QB failures. The biggest thing that most of them have in common is that they went to terrible teams and were expected to be instant saviors ... something the Browns keep trying to do over and over again:


Johnny Manziel 1-22
Teddy Bridgewater 1-32
EJ Manuel 1-16
Ryan Tannehill 1-8
Brandon Weeden 1-22
Jake Locker 1-8
Blaine Gabbert 1-10
Christian Ponder 1-12
Tim Tebow 1-25
Mark Sanchez 1-5
JaMarcus Russel 1-1
Brady Quinn 1-22
Vince Young 1-3
Matt Leinart 1-10
Jay Cutler 1-11
Jason Campbell 1-25
JP Losman 1-22
Byron Leftwich 1-7
Kyle Boller 1-19
Rex Grossman 1-22
Joey Harrington 1-3
Patrick Ramsey 1-32
Chad Pennington 1-18

There are a few decent players in there, such as Bridgewater and Young, but for the most part these guys did not do well.


MORAL OF THE STORY:

Unless you have a consensus #1 pick, and elite defense/run game, or plan to bench your draft pick behind an established QB for a couple of years ... DO NOT draft a QB in the first round and expect them to turn things around. Guys like David Carr are the exception to the rule. You're more than likely going to get a Locker/Tannehill/Ponder/Sanchez/etc.

I think the more telling figure would be that of the 22 QBs that topped 3500 yds this year, 15 were first rounders. And another 2 (Dalton and Carr) were extremely early 2nd rounders.

Brees was drafted in the second round.

I take Chad Kelly at the top of the 2nd. He is the QB of this class.

He also is a total douche with a torn ACL.

Johnny Manziel thinks that Chad Kelly is a spoiled rich kid.

So does Mia Khalifa

Chad Kelly and Davis Webb are my two favorites from this year's class when given a good round.

He is playing in the Senior Bowl.

Which would make sense. Generally, you'll get better players in the first round for any position. I think the point to be made though is that if the QB isn't a genuine #1 pick, then unless you have the team built around him already or don't mind benching him for 2-3 years, don't waste your other first rounders on one and expect them to take over and do well.

Carr seems to be the only one since 2000 that's been able to do it! Just about every other non-top pick that didn't sit or come into a great situation has been a bust, and guess how many Cleveland drafted? Do we not learn?

My worry is that we take Garrett or Allen #1 like we should, but then take a QB with the 12th pick. That's not going to help us, unless we're happy to sit him for a few years.

Well when his ACL gets better, he won't be such a jerk.

No. He is not. He is attending the Senior Bowl.



http://www.oxfordeagle.com/2016/12/05/ol...bowl-wont-play/