DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Who should we draft in 2017? v2.0

This draft value chart might be a little more useful:



https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

It was created by Kevin Meers when was writing for The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective. Kevin Meers is now the Director of Research and Strategy for the Cleveland Browns.

That assumes they take QB, which is a good bet. What we don't know is if they take the QB we want. It's also possible we have 2 on the board and don't really care which one is there.

That things insane.

Move from 12-4 for a high 4th? No way.

Is there anything else with that chart? Like premiums or something.

My guess is that this chart has changed quite a bit now that Meers has access to data inside the league (and with the financial backing of an NFL franchise).

Still, it is a good look at how someone inside our front office valued draft picks at one point.

I mentioned this in the Terrelle Pryor thread. If we are the team to reach for Watson then retaining Pryor is a priority, and some other tall, big WR need to be on our shopping list. Looks like Watson likes to throw it up for grabs. His receivers are top flight, NFL caliber guys and you can get away it in college a lot more than you can in the NFL. In the NFL, all defenses have NFL caliber guys.

According to that chart, the Browns gave 503 points for 766 points of value in the Philly trade if you drop a round of value for each future year for a pick.

If you go off of the traditional value chart, and devalue future year picks one round for each future year, the Browns gave up 2634 points of value for 2195 points of value (3125 if you don't devalue to the future picks.)

If it means anything, it means the Browns won't trade up. Ever. More likely it doesn't mean much of anything IMO.

And this is probably something they don't do.

Exactly that chart basically means we aren't likely to trade. I'm sure we craft a score similar to this for the prospects so we can see if that prospects value is over what we value the picks needEd to trade though.

Am I missing something here?

According to the chart, even with a one round degredation, I'd still move up. In almost EVERY round.

I'm dumb. I gotta be missing something here. Please tell me I'm missing something here.

The draft value chart I posted values mid round picks more than normal. That means you are more likely to trade down because other teams don't value those picks as much you.

That, of course, simply won't happen. But on principle, I agree. What we need are not another batch of 14 rookies, but 5 or 6 quality players with 2 studs mixed in...

That would be ideal but stats suggest the more picks you have the more likely it is to get said stud or quality player as opposed to just higher picks. Not sticking up for the FO its just that there isn't as much correlation to elite production based on pick when you factor in the selections value itself. They may fail at the selections which is easily possible but the premise of more picks and not trading up can not be denied it's mathematical fact.

I recognize that in general. I believe it more applicable outside the first round and much less so in the top half of the first round although I'm not certain if there is sufficient data to support that...,

I've been thinking that the Myles Garrett astronomical grade story has to have a reason. I think it likely we're trying to drive up his price. I've also seen a lot of mocks where both Hooker and Adams are gone before #12. With Gregg Williams aggressive defense, I think we really need an eraser on the backend. Been playing around on first-pick trying different things out. Sometimes the trade offers for 1 are terrible. If the Ed Reed comp is accurate would Hooker be worth 1-1?

Round 1 Pick 1: Malik Hooker, FS, Ohio State (A)
Round 1 Pick 12: Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson (B-)
Round 2 Pick 1: Garett Bolles, OT, Utah (B+)
Round 2 Pick 20: DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State (A)
Round 3 Pick 1: Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech (B-)
Round 4 Pick 1: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma (A-)
Round 5 Pick 32: Jay Guillermo, C, Clemson (D-)
Round 6 Pick 1: Tedric Thompson, SS, Colorado (C-)

Link

Round 1 Pick 5 (TENN): Malik Hooker, FS, Ohio State (A+)
Round 1 Pick 12: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee (A)
Round 2 Pick 1: Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson (B+)
Round 2 Pick 20: Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy (B)
Round 3 Pick 1: Forrest Lamp, OG, Western Kentucky (B+)
Round 3 Pick 5 (TENN): Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech (B)
Round 4 Pick 1: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma (A-)
Round 5 Pick 32: Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, Arkansas (A)
Round 6 Pick 1: Marquel Lee, ILB, Wake Forest (C+)

Link

Actually there is. Not sure how successful I'd be looking it up but if you trust me last year I learned there is a very steep decline from after about the top 12 to 14 picks in production over a career per start, length of career and overall value. There are slight ups and downs but I think of it like a ski Hill. You start pretty even only slightly moving downwards until you crest then it's all down hill at about the same angle until the end where there's no risk. It wasnt exponential.

Grimm I would lose my mind if your 2nd mock happened. All of them through mahomes are great value for my board personally yet still very realistic (other than maybe Barnett at 12).

I generally agree with that, however I was referring to a probable lack of data for the top half of the 1st round. All picks in the 1-16 range or so, should be quality, high success rate picks. I think we are for the most part, on the same page...

j/c:

Y'all gave me a headache. LOL

Take two aspirin and call...

Told you I was a math nerd Vers

Peen,

I agree with you. We might almost look at former Gator Dominique Easley from LA.

Even after the National Championship, I still want to go defensively at 1 and 12. I would be more than happy with either Garrett or Allen at 1 and then somebody like Hooker at 12. That would be a great first day and if we manage to keep Collins our defense would improve two-fold over night.

The whole QB question may also be answered if they make a power play trade for a current NFL QB.

Garappollo has been discussed to death.

If we do sign Greg Roman as OC a move for Tyrod Taylor could be very interesting.

I am intrigued by both potential scenarios.

OMG, can you imagine this draft that Draftek concocted for us ? Not sure how accurate they are on how many picks we actually have so far.

1a - Garett
1b - Cam Robinson
2a - Trubisky?!
2b - Jordan Lewis - CB Michigan
3 - Marcus Maye - S Florida
4 - Tyler Orlosky - OC West Virginia
5a - Corey Clement - RB Wisconsin
5b - Jelani Hamilton - DL Miami
6 - James Quick - WR Louisville
7 - No pick

http://www.drafttek.com/2017-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp

Not a fan of that draft in the slightest.

that draft has raekwon mcmillan drafted before malik hooker. That's unconventional.

That would be a REALLY solid draft! Won't ever happen but I would sure love it!

+1 but I doubt Trubisky makes it past the top 10

hard to imagine the best OT in the draft falling that far when he dominated garrett

Ever seen how bad he was against Barnett? Garrett's just a freak with little technique. I'd highly suggest you watch Barnett make him look bad. That said I'm not trashing robinson. I like him. I just like a couple later OL more.

So I just read that Jon Allens shoulder is a concern....

To be honest I have not yet watched Barnett very much yet. I am getting more interested in him after reading posts on this forum though. Got any good links you could recommend for me?

I doubt it as well. That said, we don't need to be the team drafting him there. When you put up a Christmas tree, do you put the Star up first, or do you set the base first?

We both know the answer.



At some point, a QB will be the number one need. That time isn't now.

Barnett

Thats his breakdown page. I'd suggest the Bama tape this year for robinson obviously but watch as many as you'd like and give me your input. Myles struggled against him because robinson being such an athlete himself didn't let him get away with just turning the edge. Barnett has pro bowl level technique in college with nearly elite athleticism himself. What's nice about Barnett is most of his production came against the SEC instead of small schools like myles so his tape is more consistently dominant. All of them will showcase him for you.

Thanks I'll take a look at it!

Anytime

score is: 10041 (GRADE: B+)

Your Picks:
Round 1 Pick 1: Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M (A+)
Round 1 Pick 12: Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU (A+)
Round 2 Pick 1: DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame (B+)
Round 2 Pick 20: T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin (A)
Round 3 Pick 1: Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan (A)
Round 4 Pick 1: Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU (A+)
Round 5 Pick 32: Danny Isidora, OG, Miami (Fla.) (B)
Round 6 Pick 1: Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin (A+)

Hooker and Foster were both off the board and Fournette was sitting there. I wouldn't normally pick two RBs but Clement was sitting there so I took him. Aside from having too many running backs, I like this draft, especially if we could get Kizer in the second.

Shaquill Griffin of UCF will be a day 1 starter for somebodies secondary. He's going to be a pro bowler.

Hey Out of curiosity who do you like as later OL prospects? I had my eye on Dion Dawkins (Temple) but if the staff like how Coleman is progressing I think where he may go (2/3 round?) may be too high. Later on, maybe Avery Gennesy (A&M), Toth (Kentucky) and Guillermo (Clemson) as development OL.

Keep an eye on Forest Lamp T / G. W Kentucky.