DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum What did the Analytics know and when did they know it?

I've been trying to follow this the best I can to determine what and when will be next. That said, I think the FO may be playing possum. Everyone has their own opinion and I have mine about Garrett. Though thought of as the most talented player in the draft, the intangibles worry me greatly. You don't have to search very deep into scouting reports to see there's obvious questions about his lack of strength, the ability to shed blockers, and his documented issues of taking plays off. For a team that just went 1-15, should the #1 overall pick be used on such a player?

Stock piling draft picks opens many doors for draft day trades or regular trades for that fact. I think the FO is doing just that. As with last year, I expect them to be active on draft day trading up and/or down to get the players they want. I still think Haden is on the block too and the Browns are certainly looking for another second rounder next year for the oft injured Haden. I also think they are silently shopping the #1 overall to get for sure another first rounder next year and additional picks this year.

Keep in mind, the Browns were 31st against the run last year and a result we have seen yearly since the team returned. One guy, Garrett is not going to change that especially since run defense is one of his weakest areas. Now I know some will say but he's a sack machine and he might be. However, what do we do about the 47.8% of the plays teams run against us? Getting 3-4 picks for our #1 overall would certainly go a lot further in fixing our defense than 1 edge rusher with worrisome intangibles IMO.

I think the FO is looking at these analytics and a contemplating a move. The other reason for stocking these draft picks is to go after Darnold in 2018. I see two teams that will have very rough years in 2017. First, Chicago who I believe will be weak and will easily offer a #2 for Haden due to their defensive issues which will be end up being a high second rounder. Second is the Jets especially if they sign Cutler or Romo. That will turn their attention to defense and they would mortgage the house for Garrett and still only win a few games in 2017.

One final word on Garrett, he has a very similar background as former 1st round pick Vernon Gholston. Gholston was drafted by the New York Jets sixth overall in the 2008 NFL Draft. Gholston declared for the 2008 NFL Draft and was projected as a top 10 pick. He tied the highest bench press score at the NFL combine with 37 repetitions at 225 pounds (102 kg; 16.1 st). Gholston was one of two players to record a quarterback sack against two-time consensus All-American and 2008 NFL Draft number one overall selection Jake Long in Long's NCAA career. Gholston was invited to attend the 2008 NFL Draft in New York. He was expected to play outside linebacker in the Jets' 3-4 defense with the Jets citing his speed, strength and “long limbs,” believing they had found the perfect outside pass rusher and sack artist for their defense.

However, Gholston did not play much his rookie season after being expected to start. He saw time mainly on special teams, totaling 13 tackles, 5 solo. In his second year, Gholston was mostly a minor contributor under new coach Rex Ryan's defense. During the 2009 season, he tallied 17 tackles (12 solo and 2 tackles for loss). Following the 2009 season, Gholston converted from outside linebacker to his more-familiar defensive end position.

Gholston was released by New York on March 2, 2011 after three seasons with the team — a time in which he recorded zero sacks (while, according to ESPN, over 600 other players recorded at least one). He has widely been considered one of the biggest busts in the history of the draft.

Hehe...what if he studs out? Think how Houston and the FO bashers of the board are going to look and feel!

Like, he doesn't even have to be "good"

Just be "not terrible"?

He was not terrible, bordering on good, in Denver.

Figure out how to get back there.

(Also, please don't start Kessler)

j/c

You know what I find funny, if it wasn't so sad? There's not one player listed thats even close to Garrett. Not One. Yet a few on here keep pushing the same old worn out excuse about Garrett. Who's a close second? Allen? No chance, not after the combine, now he's not even top 5. I would say Thomas but on a scale of 1-10 and Garrett being ten...Thomas might make 7. So you all can keep trashing Garrett all you want. And there's no way were trading down out of the #1 pick either.

I know this would make most of the Browns fandom's heads explode but I'd love this scenario. In a draft class this deep, the more picks the better and adding to next year's round 1 would be genius. I just don't thik that there's anyone that's going to be that sold on Garrett to pay that sort of price. I'm content if they draft him, but there's something in the back of my mind that says he's not going to succeed at the next level. That is a total WAG but it just a feeling I have.

If they even consider trading the #1 pick (don't)

There are only two offers I would except.

Tennessee: #5, #18, 2018 1st, 2017 2nd, 2018 2nd

Or

New England: Jimmy Garrapolo and all their picks for the next 2 drafts.

Well, I went out on a limb and stated my opinion and I see your another know-it-all draft knick . We'll see how this works out. We don't need more picks, we need Impact picks. Were not gonna keep all we draft this year either.

To me the fact that Bill wants Garrett is reason enough to keep him.

The league approved the trade right away. I don't think that they had any problem with it at all.

A new way of doing business has entered the league, and we lead the way.

I think you will see more trades like this and I think you will see more teams start pulling offers if the player walks from the table.

Peen.. that's exactly why I made this post. I'm glad to see the exchanges that it's had. I felt it was important that we begin to adjust our thinking. I'm actually pretty impressed w PastorMarcs post, I think he stands a fair chance being spot on...

This is interesting to witness. We all know what we've done the last year plus.

In FA we were responsibly aggressive. Inking Bitonio. Hitting on Zeitler and Britt. And finding our new starting Center.

Excellent moves knowing this is a weak OL draft. Going hard after Jefferson means the weakest parts of this team were identified.

Now. We missed on Jefferson. Still a serious hole. The draft is solid at Safety and CB.

Is it time to make moves for Quality over Quantity?

I think that's exactly what we are thinking. And we're NOT thinking about loading up even more for 2018 picks and one of the QBs that we don't even know if they will come out.

We're taking GARRETT at 1.

I'm watching the Jets at 6. They're going full bore rebuild. I'd bet anything they move down. Accumulation of picks. They need it like we did last year.

Watch if we don't make the move to 6 and snag Hooker ahead of San Diego. Because we have the ammo to do it.

It has been published (I'll find it if people want me to) that he had a basic offense in Denver that allowed him to succeeed; and that he had a very complex offense in Houston that he didn't grasp onto as well, and thus didn't succeed. The offensive staff would just need to dumb down our offense if it is complex like Houstons.

I hope you're right Tab.

I really don't take much away from last year. Depodesta had only been here a short time and it was reported he didn't have a lot of input into the draft.

For better or worse I believe we will see what will more closely resemble the pattern we will follow. I also like your comment about how their strategy may change depending on the quality of individual drafts. It's always nice to have the hope that they are willing to change their strategy depending on the circumstances.

In theory they should not be predictable. They hired a strategist who they paid big dollars.

I cannot wait until the day where time between the super bowl and training camp means absolutely nothing! Baseball actually becomes fun!

I hope analytics is not the biggest thing this group is known. Drafting many players over a few drafts is not a new concept. Maybe they discover what New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh learned long ago stay focus on a concept and build around it.

If anything, I like seeing the Browns become very efficiently run. Coach and player changes do not disrupt the order. Organization ahead of the curve adapting to changes and trends.

I'm definitely more a "know-it-some". I completely respect your opinion I'm just looking at it as 2 A level players, for this team, is greater than 1 A+ player. That won't always be true, but I think it is right now. As for the player himself, I have nothing against Garrett other than a feeling, and I wholeheartedly admit that, that's no way to run a program.

He is, and i see it that way. Add in the offset language with Brock signing a deal for say 5 mil, and we got a haul for $3 mil.

With this crew, you can't think the old.

There is a new Sheriff in town, turning pages never turned.


But hey, to some they are just the Harvard "boys" who don't know what they are doing.

I like to play chess. A great game.

If you go in with a plan and aren't willing or able to change as the board changes, you aren't going to win. You have to think 3-4-5 moves ahead. The really good players, they are calculating moves 10 moves down the road.


"Let's see if I can pull him here?"

You talk a lot of smack when the guys you are championing just came off of a 1 and 15 season.

I have no problem w/you liking them, but making fun of those who question them is pretty freaking lame.

edited by me.

Go make another Trump sucks post.

The MORE times I keep hearing comments like this, the MORE SURE I get That he's going to bust like a size 2 shirt on a Hawaiian tropic super model!

There hasn't been a sure thing, and there surely ain't no sure thing that everybody keeps telling you is the only sure thing.
Tell me I'm wrong in 20 months, hope I am.

Sure things....death and taxes....hope we take THE EDGE RUSHER and he works out....ie, not C. Brown....GO Browns!!!

When you have the #1 pick, and there is a "sure thing"

You take him. It doesn't matter if he busts.

It's still the right choice.

JMHO, talking about sure things...Andrew Luck, he's been good, but got hurt, team around him hasn't remained good....he was sure thing and it's just middle of road....build team, we need great players AND good players...hope our OL stays healthy, because if they do our O should be lots better...including ANY QB we start....GO Browns!!!!

Maybe we draft Garrett with the intent of trading him to Tennessee if the player we want is still on the board at #5, using Garrett as insurance.

If the player is there we do the trade and gain an extra first round pick this year, else Garrett remains a Brown.

You never, know.....

We need a top QB no doubt but there doesn't seem to be one, at least on paper, in this draft. I would hate to take a QB at #12 when there may be a higher rated player still on the board. We've passed on talent too many other times for more picks and it hasn't worked out thus far. I agree with building the team now and maybe get our QB next year when the talent looks better.

Yeah that could be huge. What receivers/runners most often convert on 3rd down. Or which players on defense make tackles on 3rd down before the first down marker.

I agree 100%. They are going to use big data to learn anything and everything they can. Then they will try to find the key parts in football that are undervalued.

Can we also still go after the key parts of football that everyone values?

Good players?

Winning?

I wasn't making fun of anybody. I think they are making good moves.

So you think the goal is to use analytics for finding average players? And losing?

Clearly.

Or.

When someone says that we are going to look into "undervalued" aspects, I question if we might focus too much on that.

Trying to do it differently is fine. As long as you still use the aspects that everyone knows work along the way.

We still have scouts, so what acpects are you talking about?

I wasn't talking just about players.

I was also being slightly sarcastic.

I just don't want the FO to get a case of "smartest guy in the room" and think they don't have to do certain things the "right" way.

Nothing specific. Just generally.

Zeitler and Tretter are signings the rest of the league would agree are good.

Yes, however it is a "Browns' signing" and like all Browns' signings there is always the "Other Shoe" factor. So you bring up an interesting question.

Will Tretter, for example, be able to remain on the field? (Bentley and Brown were good signings too.) Like any signing, we'll have to wait and see whether these ultimately work out or not. For us fans, the "Phycology of Willful Blindness" comes into play. Because of that, we have "hope" luck in in our favor. That's always a reach. For the past almost two decades, we've not been able to put enough "smart decisions" together to override the occasional run of bad luck that hits every team. Instead, poor decisions (draft & FA) augmented by bad luck usually combine to decimate the team and the season. This year will be a crucial step in overcoming that pattern, IMHO. If Tretter were to go down, (for example) will we have a plan in place that will allow us to overcome that type of loss? (Like drafting a center in the later rounds, or making sure there is a viable backup in place.) We'd better, or it could just end up being SSDY.

You are no doubt correct that we have work to do...I'd add that those two signings did exactly what you were looking for on the interior of the OL. Reiter and Fabiano just became our backup Cs and Grecco just became our swing G. If 2-of-3 recover from injuries - which is expected - I'd say we are set at those 3 spots even without drafting a mid-Rd C...given that we have two of those type of guys already.