DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Options at QB

Just an observation, but none of these draft day QB's have the skill set to start immediately so any investment in them prior to a late second or third round would be a complete waste of a pick (maybe then too). Rule of thumb in today's NFL, you do not draft and pay 1st round money on a player you can't get an immediate return on, especially after coming off a 1-15 season.

In a previous post I laid out the statistics about first round QB's taken in the last 10 years. Excluding the last 2 years because the jury's still out on those guys, only 7 of the other 21 can be considered successful in the NFL, a 33.3% success rate. Second, QB's drafted in the top 5 picks give teams a much improved average of a 55.5% success rate. The QB's in this years draft would be well behind every QB taken in the last 2 drafts clearly indicating that any QB drafted in the 1st round this year would be an extreme reach and have an even lower percentage of being successful. 2nd and 3rd round QB's have an even lower percentage of success in the last 10 years. Just an FYI for those so in favor of letting a QB sit and learn like Rodgers did - in 2016, there were only 2 QB's that sat for 3 or more years before they got their starting job - Rodgers from GB and Osweiler in Houston via Denver. Teams just don't do this anymore because of the cost and importance of the position. Unless you already have a franchise QB like Farve in GB or Manning in Denver - this is just a dumb move for a team that has to start winning or be fired.

Hopefully the Garoppolo talk is dead dead dead but the Browns would have to be out of their collective minds trading multiple picks for JG. The entire FO and coaching staff would be putting their collective jobs on the line if they give up the #12 and #33 for a player that was drafted 62nd three years ago, the 5th QB off the board, and with only 6 qtrs. of NFL experience and he bombs.

Now, if the Browns use their draft picks wisely and first and foremost shore up an absolutely horrible defense (especially against the run: 30th or worst each of the last 3 years) and use Kessler or Qsweiler as a bridge QB - then the Browns will be vastly improved TEAM on the field and should get at least 4-5 wins. Yes, they will probably still have a QB issue but the key here is an improved TEAM - not position. The Browns then can go all in for their QB of choice in 2018 whether from the draft or free agency and save their collective butts jobs. However, if they trade multiple picks to either move up to draft a QB or trade for JG, they had better be dang sure that the guy is the real deal because in doing so, they will not be addressing the defense and "NO" - Garrett will not fix their defense - he's only one piece.

With 3 picks in the first 33, the Browns have a huge opportunity to draft three day 1 starters in Garrett, a DT, and a CB or safety. The offense will automatically be improved from what they did in FA but they have to address the stinky defense. Then next year the Browns can get their QB, finish the defense build, and get the depth they need to win for years. A gamble on a QB, especially ones with so many unknowns, is a plan to put all their jobs on the line. Just MHO.

Good post and I very much agree. I've said it on some of my other posts keep the picks, concentrate on D and let the draft come to us. No more moving up and down and trading picks, at least in the 1st 3 rounds. Our FO has set us up with multiple picks in a talented draft. Use them and get us that much needed talent especially on D. If they see a player on O they really like then by all means take him but I would work on the D. That's where most of the talent is.

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I think we draft Dobbs in the third round and he is the only QB we pick.

If our FO feels that Dobbs can be good and they like him then take him. I don't think there is much difference between him and the top 3 rated guys anyways.

I said this before and I'll say it again, if we want Trub, they take him at #1. There is no reason to think they want him, if they do like I said it would be at #1. If they trade back up and try to draft him, then it's a major reach, and they won't do that.

I have a gut feeling, nothing more than that, that we will pick Mahomes at #12

Do you think he won't last til the 4th round?

We drafted Kessler in the third round and he was supposed to be around in the sixth or seventh.

I honestly don't have a clue this year what we are doing at 12 and it's kind of cool. It's certainly possible we take him at 12 if Trub is gone. I really hate the idea of Pat being on the steelers.

I am starting to like Mahomes and I have only watched a little film on him. But the question is --- if all the QB's are available at #12. What do they do?

Take one of the top flight safeties if still available or OJ Howard =]

If they are smart and value their jobs, they'll ignore all QB's at #12 and draft a Day 1 contributor. According to most mocks, any of these players could/should be available at #12 and would have an immediate TEAM impact and provide much much more value for the Browns:

S Adams LSU
DE Barnett TEN
CB Awuzie COL
WR Ross WAS - a sleeper pick

Exactly ... here's another reason they should do just that:

Pick a QB from the list below ...



I've taken out stats based on attempts, because it's obviously biased by guys that throw/play more and used just the percentage based things. Which player do you take? Probably Player C, right? Okay, who's the next guy you take?

I'm probably going with Player B. He's second in every category. Well, Player B is Cody Kessler. Player C is Dak Prescott. What's the biggest difference between the two? Dak played behind the best line in the NFL, had Zeke Elliot running behind him and and also had a pretty good group of receivers around him. Kessler played behind a couple of turnstyles.

Who are the other two? Player A is Jared Goff and Player D is Carson Wentz. The top two picks of the draft. If you project Kessler's stats to where he has the same amount of attempts as Wentz, he would of outplayed him. And again, Kessler was playing behind that same o-line.

Actually, Jared Goff himself is a good comparison, because they both played the same amount of games and had around the same number of attempts:


What's the biggest difference? Well, one was a third round pick ... and the other was a first round QB that was picked early because the team was afraid he wouldn't fall to them.

Kessler completed a 44 yard pass?

Yeah, wasn't it to Crow?

It was a trick play.

http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/media-cen...e9-c8a9d311eeb6

We were able to keep a HC more than one year, who will run the same offense and implement the same game plan.

Give Cody the keys. Draft your rookie, but let them sit for a year.

Better oline (on paper), same offense, and an offseason to focus on things other than the draft/combine/pro day should help Cody.

He's not flashy, and will NEVER be the popular QB, but the dude takes care of the ball, makes great decisions, and can read a defense.

http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland-brown...rowth-in-year-2

Nice article. I just like this kid and want him to succeed.

If we end up with Trubisky, Mahomes ... Dobbs ... I won't hate it. Be happy if Kessler gets to start the season and show his development.

He dropped it directly in Crow's bread basket right over the heads of two Dallas linebackers. Good play, great execution.

I agree, it was a beautiful throw, but it was still a trick play. It was one of those crazy plays where we lineup the offensive linemen out wide and a couple eligible receivers in near the center.

Would Weeden have completed that pass? Doubtfully. Trick play or not.

j/c

At least those of you trying to pretend that Kessler has an NFL arm managed to find one, single example.

Who said that?

Which was like a 15-20 yard throw. Meh.

Well...THAT was a good read and a good throw. Like an NFL QB should make.

j/c

I like Kessler. I don't think he is a franchise type QB, but I believe he can be a decent 'game manager' type QB. In 2014 Hoyer won 7 games (before we lost Mack to injury) with a noodle arm by managing the game. I think Kessler can be a better version of Hoyer. Until we have a franchise QB, I think he will do fine.

We still have to see how much he is improved, and we have to see what we have in Osweiler. Yes cfrs, he was terrible last year, but new system, new coach, we should at least kick the tires.

For a noodle arm, he still had more yards per attempt than the top two picks of the draft.

There's been 16 QB's drafted or projected to be drafted in the last 3 years plus this years group with first or second round projections. I just listened to a scout on the radio that rated all those QB's as if they were coming out this year. It's very interesting that this years players are so poorly rated yet rumors still abound the Browns are going to way way over reach for QB this year. Here was the rankings:

Based on College work and NFL capability
1. 2015 Winston
2. 2015 Mariota
3. 2016 Goff
4. 2014 Bortles
5. 2014 Bridgewater
6. 2014 Carr
7. 2014 Manziel
8. 2016 Wentz
9. 2014 Garoppolo
10.2016 Lynch
11.2017 Trubisky
12.2017 Watson
13.2017 Mahomes
14.2017 Kizer
15.2015 Hackenburg
16.2017 Webb

Needless to say, if the Browns use a 1st round pick on a QB it will be the end for these coaches and front office if that QB bombs like all their other 1st round QB picks over the last 15 years. A bad QB draftee has cost many a coach and front office their jobs!

Goff, Bortles and Manziel over Wentz???

How is Carr not #1 on that list?

He rated all the QBs as if they were coming out of college this year, without looking at what they have done or not done in the NFL or without outside issues. A kinda time machine rating ...

Exactly, so if you were for example rating a Tom Brady - he for sure would not be your top rated player coming out of college with his body of work. He'd still be a 6th round pick. However, for every Tom Brady there's 50 Weeden's. Does that mean all these guys are Weeden's or are they Brady's?

Percentage wise, there's about a 85% chance they are Weeden's and not a Brady. That's the point, as deep as this draft is on defense and when you have at a minimum one of the worst run defenses in the league for multiple consecutive years and coming off a 1-15 season then you do not reach for a QB that if even taken in the 2nd or 3rd round would have a possibility for success of less than 15%. Add to that fact that if you rate the QB's drafted over the last 3 years with this years players, this years players are all rated in the bottom tier based on the college body of work and transferable skills to the NFL. That said, how can anyone justify using a first round pick on any of these guys?

Now I get it - the Browns need a franchise QB. Afterall, we've been waiting for this for almost 20 years but you can't keep drafting projects year in and year out hoping to get a hit. Outside of Couch, when was the last time the Browns actually drafted a QB that was deemed as a can't miss player like Ben, Luck, Flacco, Ryan, Rivers or E. Manning?

Exactly, zero - don't waste a pick on these project QB's and fix the rest of the team especially the crappy defense.

Why won’t the Cleveland Browns draft a quarterback? Maybe they believe in Cody Kessler.

By Neil Greenberg April 28 at 10:02 AM


The Cleveland Browns entered the 2017 NFL draft with 11 picks, including the No. 1 overall. There was speculation leading up to the big event that the franchise, which has seen 26 quarterbacks start games under center since its return to the league in 1999, would select quarterback Mitchell Trubisky with the top pick, but the Browns passed on the chance to take a QB. And then they passed again. And again.

After the Browns took defensive end Myles Garrett at No. 1, the Chicago Bears traded up to the No. 2 spot soon after to nab Trubisky. Meanwhile Cleveland traded down from No. 12 to No. 25 with the Houston Texans. They didn’t take a quarterback there, either, opting to select versatile defender Jabrill Peppers instead. With their third pick in the first round, the Browns selected David Njoku, a tight end, effectively leaving second-year quarterback Cody Kessler, a third-round pick in 2016, as the team’s top quarterback on the depth chart for the 2017 season.

On the surface, given the expectation Cleveland would surely select a quarterback with at least one of its picks, it was a head-scratcher. But it might not be as crazy as many people think.

Kessler took over signal-caller duties for Cleveland last season after injuries to starter Robert Griffin III and veteran reserve Josh McCown, completing 128 of his 195 attempts (65.6 percent) for 1,380 yards and six touchdowns against just two interceptions in eight starts. He was, however, sacked 21 times and suffered two concussions in the span of a month. Assuming the Cleveland line improves enough to keep him healthy, his performance under pressure was encouraging: Per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, he ranked first among passers in completion percentage under pressure after accounting for dropped passes, throwaways, spiked balls, batted passes and passes where he was hit while throwing the ball (80.6 percent), fifth in overall adjusted completion percentage (78.2 percent) and sixth in passer rating under pressure (82.4).

[img]https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp-content/uploads/sites/28/2017/04/Kessler-rtg.jpg&w=1484[/img]

And Kessler would be sure to benefit from the Browns investing heavily in the offensive line during free agency.

Cleveland’s offensive front allowed its quarterback to be sacked once out of every nine snaps after adjusting for down, distance and opponents, the worst pass protection in the NFL last season. This offseason, the front office signed guard Kevin Zeitler and center J.C. Tretter to multi-year deals.

Tretter was ranked as the No. 13 center in the NFL last season by Pro Football Focus, allowing just two sacks in 488 snaps for the Green Bay Packers in 2016. He is also a massive upgrade over Cameron Ervin, the lowest rated center per PFF. Zeitler was the sixth-highest rated guard overall and the second-best pass-protecting guard on the right side, allowing one sack, three hits and 15 hurries over 1,087 snaps.

They will join left tackle Joe Thomas, the fourth-best tackle last season, and Joel Bitonio, who was playing at a Pro Bowl level before he suffered a broken foot against the Washington Redskins in Week 5, to form what could be one of the better offensive lines in the league in 2017.

The Browns could still draft a passer with one of their seven remaining picks, but based on historical performance, it is probably best to wait until next year.

According to The Washington Post‘s draft analysis, the average five-year value of a quarterback (using Approximate Value (AV), a stat created by Pro Football Reference that measures how well a player performed overall in a season) starts at 45 AV in the first round and depreciates significantly from there, indicating Cleveland most likely has missed its opportunity to find its future franchise quarterback in the 2016 draft.

[img]https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp-content/uploads/sites/28/2017/04/AV-QB.jpg&w=1484[/img]

It remains to be seen if Kessler can be the guy for the Browns long term, however, his 2016 performance displayed the accuracy and poise under pressure you want under center, giving Cleveland an above-average stopgap until it finds a more permanent solution. And let’s not forget most talent evaluators weren’t all that high on this draft’s class of quarterback. The 2018 class, which should include USC’s Sam Darnold, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and UCLA’s Sam Rosen, is expected to produce much better NFL players.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fanc...m=.266a236cbbd3

Kesller is NOT a starting QB, I don't even think he is a backup. The numbers don't tell the story the kid was atrocious last year, and he got pulled because he was AFRAID to throw the ball downfield.

He doesn't have the arm.

the Best Qb on this roster is Brock Osweiler. He pretty much has to be the starter at this point. We have no one else. He will easily beat Kessler out in camp.

We have to pray for a miracle that Osweiler goes back to his 2015 Broncos form and plays well, else we will be in for another miserable season.

QB play will soley decide if we start the season 0-6 or 4-2 or 3-3....

Kessler is not a viable NFL QB...He is scared to throw the ball and thats the worset thing...they shoulda cut him and drafted another late rd project today...its very hard to fix someone who is scared...good luck with that...

SORRY NEIL GREENBURG, I WON'T BUY YOUR REVISIONIST ARTICLE!
Type it Before they totally flaked and missed out on whomever they wanted in a year they held the #1 overall pick.

Nobody ever wants to talk about how they have poor pass protection, because they have a loser Qb, (any year), who's the 65th best on the planet, and totally incapable of getting a lead.
Breaking News! The team with a lead on the scoreboard doesn't give up as many sacks, because they aren't playing from behind.