DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Browns 2017 Statistical Expectations Offense and Defense

Just wondering what people expectations are from a production/statistical standpoint?

I'm going to post year end snapshot metrics from 2016:

2016

Football Outsiders: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

28th Overall Offense
29th Passing Offense
13th Rushing Offense

Pass Protection: 32nd 66 sacks allowed (10.6%)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Stuffed Rank: 27th (22%)

31st Overall Defense
30th Passing Defense
27th Rushing Defense

nfl.com: http://www.nfl.com/teams/clevelandbrowns/profile?team=CLE

Defense:
30th Points Allowed (28.2)
31st Yards Allowed (392.4)
21st Passing Yards (249.8)
31sr Rush Yards (142.7)

Offense:
31st Points For (16.5)
30th Yards For (311.0)

28th Pass Yards (204)

Terrelle Pryor-77-1007-13.1ypc-4 tds
Gary Barnidge--55--612-11.1ypc-2 tds
Duke Johnson--53--514--9.7ypc
Isaiah Crowell--40--319-8.0ypc
Corey Coleman --33--413--12.5ypc-3 tds
Andrew Hawkins--3--324-9.8ypc-3 tds
Ricardo Louis--18--200--11.4ypc
Seth DeValve--10--127--12.7ypc

19th Rush Yards (107)

Isaiah Crowell-952-4.8ypc-7 TDs
Duke Johnson-358-4.9ypc-1 TD



Expectations?

Prediction...

24th Overall Offense
26th Passing Offense
10th Rushing Offense

Pass Protection: 22nd 40 sacks allowed


23rd Overall Defense
25th Passing Defense
21st Rushing Defense

Defense:
22nd Points Allowed (24)
25th Yards Allowed (320)
19th Passing Yards (225)
26th Rush Yards (95)

Offense:[/b]
24th Points For (20)
26th Yards For (360)

25th Pass Yards (229)

15th Rush Yards (130)


I look for modest improvement. With an improvement in record. There were several games last year that we should/could have won, except for rookie mistakes and injuries. A year in the system and a better offensive line and better Defensive Front 7 should lead to improvements and wins. So I expect a 5 -11 record, and a more competitive team. I know.. 5 - 11 still sucks, but it is a 4 game improvement over last year.

Hard for me to predict what we'll do on offense bc I don't know who will be starting day 1.

I think our run game will do better, as well as our pass protection. I'm not certain our passing yards will just explode though.

Defensively, I'd like to think we go from bottom rankings to at least the middle of the pack.

Also, I think there is a typo there on Ricardo Louis. It says 18 catches, 20 yards, and 11.4 ypc. Should be 205 yards.

Considering the projected strength of the Browns defensive front 7 and the projected weakness
of the secondary, I think it’s reasonable to project middle-of-the-pack run defense statistics.

I’m going with a 15th rank for - Total Yards Run Defense.

Maybe better.

Total Yards Pass Defense rank - 29th.

Total Yards Defense - 20th.

Offense? No reasonable guess.

'Browns offensive line is one of NFL's top units, says Pro Football Focus'

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The Browns put money into the offensive line following last season. The result is the NFL's highest-paid unit in 2017, according to Spotrac.com, which keeps track of such things. Now, Pro Football Focus has the Browns' offensive line as the second best in the league.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ss...art_river_index

Something seems wrong. They have Philly first, Browns second, and Steelers 3rd.

No mention of Dallas and Oakland.

The Steelers do have a good OL, but Philly's stunk last year. I don't think the Brown's OL was as bad as many claim it was last year, but no way do I see them as a top 5 unit.

We'll find out what's real or not when the season finally starts & progresses.

You think THIS was not as bad as some people claim:

C - Erving; likely to never to play C again in the NFL
RG - Bailey; no longer on the team
RT - Pasztor; no longer on the team or any NFL team at the moment

With a rookie 5th Rd pick at LG

That OL was worse than bad.

In fairness, the original pegged in starter for RG was Greco, who's very good when healthy.

Let's hope our O-line stays healthy this year. That will give them a fair opportunity to PROVE how good they really are.

Preseason ranking are like deodorant, everything smell wonderful until they've been in the pits awhile. We'll see what they really look like once the bullets start flying.

It is a veteran unit, with an unknown at RT.. but they have been tested with the bullets flying .. I think it will be a question of how they all mesh together.

I'm more on the 'meshing' issue as well. But as we saw last year, the backs need to find the holes...the WRs need to run dependable routes...and the QB needs to know what to do and actually DO IT and on time. Otherwise, there will be another off-season of trying to find a solution.

And if they can stay healthy, and if the QB can get the ball out of his hand, and if the RBs run to daylight. Not everything that determines O-line success is on the O-line... once the bullets start flying. Do I think it's been upgraded? Absolutely. Do I think the pre-season rankings are any indicator of future performance? Absolutely not. A lot of good DCs, D-lines, linebackers, and safeties will have something to say about it as well.

I don't want to guess on unit statistics by looking at the Brown's team improvements.

I want to guess by looking at how I think the Browns are going to do in their games; meaning, if I don't think the Browns are going to be 8-8 or better, then
because teams that are losing are typically going to be worse statistically,
that they cannot be believed to be going to jump in to the top 16 of a 32 team league, ... no matter how many all American players they've added.

So put me down for about 28th, across the board.
Put me down that the Pass defense is better than the run defense.

If everybody assumes the pass rush will get better, then that means it will get worse before it gets better.
Because that's usually the case in the NFL, if everything points toward one outcome, somehow it goes the other way.

I don't really want to get into numbers but I expect the run game to revert to those 1st few games last year. Meaning it should be top 10 imo. If it isn't it's a major letdown.

The pass game will likely still falter but there should be some progress from the qb. Can't get much worse than last year and I expect Kesslers experience combined with the new OL to negate our losses in mature weapons.

I think the run D will improve. We won't be more than average til we can keep teams from leading though but the depth and new formation+peppers should help here. Pass D will suffer but in close games our pressure should be decent. The lesser pass Os we face should allow us to keep the pressure dialed up

I know this upsets some of the posters here, but I firmly believe that if our running game is to see success then CK cannot be the QB. I do not know if he is unable to challenge a defense, or unwilling to, but unless we show defenses that they cannot stack the box, and that they have to be concerned about us throwing down field, then the running game will be stifled, new OL or not.

I know there are reports of CK getting stronger. But just as we need to take reports of Brock's good showing with a grain of salt, we need to take reports of CK's new arm strength with a grain of salt as well. One cannot be taken as gospel if the other is to be taken with caution.

If CK is the guy this year, then I see 1 or 2 wins as defenses can simplify their approach. And for those who would ask me if I do not expect CK to be better after another year I will give the same answer I had before. I do expect him to be better than last year, I just don't expect him to be good. I think he can be a viable backup. And 1 or 2 wins would be an improvement over his winless performance of last year.

Cal your being rough at least this line has proven it can hold.

I agree w/a lot of what you said.

I can't say the running game is going to be good because I know there is a pretty good chance that Cody will be the qb. I don't think we will be able to run the ball well if he is the qb. Teams don't respect his ability to make them pay for selling out to stop the running game.

Barring injury (speaking of that they should pick up another RB)...but barring injury the running game should be better then last year.

(1) they have invested to significantly upgraded the OL
(2) more commitment to the running game....Hue was critical of himself for getting away from the run game last year

Looking at the offense the passing game represent the biggest risk of failure.

They lost there most productive players at WR and TE. I can see the argument that Britt is as productive as Pryor but Britt is entering a new offense and new situation.

There's isn't any question (for me at least) that Njoku is more talented then Gary BUT David's a rookie learning a new offense on top of transitioning to the NFL.

The best shot I can see for improvement in the passing game is IF Coleman is a stud.

Everyone else is going to be entering into a new offense or new role or both.

28th Overall Offense------->25rd
29th Passing Offense------->26th
13th Rushing Offense-------->9th

If the Browns can't keep opposing D's honest by forcing the ball downfield, it really won't make any difference. If the opposing team can keep 8 men in the box, you will have trouble running the ball.

People better hope those young WR's can get some separation and whoever starts at QB has the ability to push the ball downfield to loosen up the opposition or everything else is moot.

I agree with that in a general sense. But I try to avoid general discussions.

Specifically to the Browns team. They were 13th in rushing last year.

How much 'keeping defenses honest' do you think occurred last year? How many 8-man boxes did they see last year? It's not like the passing game last year was explosive.

Let's say that the ability to keep defenses 'honest' doesn't change much...its not better nor worse then last year.

But, clearly the OL has improved? Assuming we can agree there then IF the ability to keep defenses honest is unchanged then why wouldn't an improved offense line and a commitment to run the ball more result in a better rushing offense?

People better hope those young WR's can get some separation and whoever starts at QB has the ability to push the ball downfield to loosen up the opposition or everything else is moot. [/quote]

When looking at it, we rushed the ball much better early in the season. Once our opponents realized we weren't pressing the ball downfield our rushing game suffered.

I do believe that the interior of our OL has improved talent wise. Unless or until we have some success at driving the ball downfield I expect the running game will look more like it did later in the season than it did earlier in the season.

Teams will look to stop the run and force us to beat them with the pass. Once we can accomplish that, our running attack will be much improved.

This is why I feel that Kessler starting at QB isn't a likely scenario.

Agreed.

However, you pass to establish the run, and you run to establish the pass.

We - or any team - need to be able to do both. We'll get there.

Of course you can run to set up the pass. But.... if you are limited as to where you can pass, everything becomes hampered.


I agree with the point that we need to be able to push the ball down the field, we also need to be able to throw the medium out routes, and so on. The best case scenario is one where we're really spreading hte defense out.


Back in 2007 (i think it was 2007), our offense was at its best. The big things that IMO were so helpful was the threat of Braylon Edwards and Derek Anderson. While Braylon has been all sorts of things, the one thing he was great at was taking hte top off a defense. He pretty much required over the top coverage by safeties. Derek Anderson was a threat to throw that ball that year.

It opened everything up for Jamal Lewis (and tons of underneath stuff for Winslow & Joe Jurevicius).


When we have QBs like Colt McCoy, teams aren't afraid of that. They know the ball is going to be thrown much closer to where it's snapped.


Whatever the case, if Cody is going to be successful here. I'm really hoping that he gets better at that. Successfully throwing outs and throwing the ball down the field, and keeping the defense spread out instead of up on the LOS.


Issue is, Cody really has never done that. It was the knock on him coming out of college. And like I said, I dunno if he can or can't do it, just that the fact that he hasnt done it has been a (minus) through college and the NFL


EDIT: But i'm really pulling for him to get it figured out. Doesn't mean he has to be the next Brett Favre, he just has to improve in this aspect of his game

ed, it was pretty damn obvious to anyone w/a clue that teams started game planning to stop the run and dared Cody to beat them w/longer horizontal throws and also vertical throws.

We were first in the league in rushing after 4 games. I have posted the article as to how NE decided to take away our running game and how they also bracketed Pryor. They dared Kessler to beat them. Yep, he got hurt in that game, but the game plan was set.

Other teams followed suit and our running game went to crap. It only improved again when RGIII came back into the lineup late in the year.

If Cody is our qb, I seriously doubt we are going to be good at running the ball. He's too one dimensional and too easy to figure out.

Additionally, our offense is lacking in so many areas. Other than having a good coach, I really don't see how this offense can get out of the 30s.

Alvin Bailey at RG and the 5th Rd rookie at LG contributed to that slide as well...not to mention Erving at C.

Good convo. I hope you will take the time to read and respond to my comments. Personally I consider it good etiquette to at least attempt to answer question (non-rhetorical) questions during a conversation.

I'm going to try to get specific as opposed to general in this discussion since you didn't answer the question from my last post I hope you take this post as I intend it....as an effort to try and understand our your disagreement.

Let's define improvement.
I'm saying that per Football Outsiders I think the run game will go from 13th into the top 10.

In more conventional counting stats nfl.com ranked the Browns 19th in rush yards per game. I think the rushing game will improve from 19th to 15th or higher.

Where do you expect the rushing game will go? Since it appears you strongly disagree with my thought that it will improve i'm curious as to your expectations.

----------------------------------------------------

Also, explaining 'why' something happened in football is rarely binary. Its rare that you can point to 1 thing and say that 1 thing is the reason that an entire team performed to yield a particular result.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion....but you must also recognize that your opinion isn't always going to shared.

So when you say that "the" reason the rushing game suffered was defenses realized the Browns weren't 'pressing' the ball downfield I disagree that it is that simple and general an explanation...and I think that if you rely on the same reasoning to explain why you believe the running game won't improve despite the upgrades to the OL and the re-newed commitment to run is skewed.

But again to get into specifics... What does it mean to you that defenses forced the Browns to beat them downfield? Does it mean that you felt the Browns rushing game faced too many 8-man boxes to have continued success and/or that the team wasn't effective rushing against 8-man fronts? I'm asking to get clarity...if we're really gonna have a football discussion.

Also, there are other factors that affected the rushing game:

-poor play from the Center position
-injury to the OGs...shuffling OL
-5 different QBs playing
-playcalling
-game situation

Your over-arching point in your response to my expectation that running game will improve appears to based in the idea that the passing game lacks the ability to 'drive the ball downfield' and that teams will look to 'stop the run and force the (browns) to beat them with the pass'.

But what defines establishing enough of a passing threat downfield that you would deem allows a team to run the ball successfully?

FYI 6 of the top 15 rushing offenses didn't have much in terms of a passing game to 'protect' their rushing game: Bills, Titans, 49ers, Panthers, Eagles and Jets.

I don't want this to turn into another Kessler or QB centric thread. It seems, and maybe i'm wrong, but this thread cold be headed in that direction...and while that is better then no conversation at all in the thread I think there are enough Kessler/QB threads and convos going on.

I know its going to be difficult to exclude the Kessler and the QBs completely I hope it doesn't become the sole focus of this thread.

Out of respect, I will stop posting on this thread if that is your wish. No problem.

However, when addressing the running game, I think it is necessary to include whether or not Kessler is our qb. I do not think our running game will be productive w/him at qb.

But again, if you would rather I not respond further on this thread.......just let me know and I'll back off.

We've had our discussion about this before and without rehashes the whole thing....clueless me knows that -there are multiple ways to 'beat' 8 man box defenses like Cover 1 man and Cover 3 zone that don't require a cannon arm
-just facing an 8 man box doesn't mean a team can't effectively run against them
-Browns faced more then just 8 man boxes during that stretch of games in question
-there are other factors outside of the QB play that affected the rushing success

30th in FBO stats or nfl stats like points or yards?

For me getting out of 30s requires growth from the team in year 2 and production from the rookies.

I think the Browns will be out of the 30s in points, yards and FBO overall offense.

No my friend, by all means please post. I would never ask anyone to stop posting and didn't intend for the previous post to be taken that way.

Just don't want this thread to turn into a Kessler thread is all...

I never said you were clueless, ed. I never even thought that. Not at all. I was just trying to have a discussion.

I think that Hue did a great job of designing plays to mask Cody's weaknesses, but eventually, the league caught up to it.

I think that we used half the field---and sometimes even less on most of Cody's plays. And I am not even talking vertically. I am talking horizontally.

I think you severely limit your offense when you can't challenge teams...whether it be deep, or intermediate passes between the hashes, or even shorter routes that call for you to throw from one hashmark to the opposite sideline.

We don't have to agree, but I think this is a real talking point, ed.

Okay thanks. I'll back off for awhile and rejoin w/out mentioning Cody. LOL..........at least I'll try. Unless, of course, someone comes on here and claims that what I am saying about challenging defenses is BS.

What you're saying about challenging defenses is BS.

Nice find.

That article has tabs to a bunch of other interesting next gen stats like:

WRs in tight coverage

No. 1 WRs

Slot receivers

No. 2 WRs

No. 3 WRs

Most aggressive QBs

Third-down QBs

http://www.nfl.com/stats/next-gen-stats

Thanks Ed. Good stuff