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Originally Posted By: jfanent
Like Erik said, follow the money.


Agreed. So when a failed meteorologist from a private corporation tells you climate change isn't real; follow the money. It's funny to watch the climate change deniers make up all these facts so they can get paid and get debunked by members of NASA and highly regarded professors from Ivy League schools.

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Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
Originally Posted By: jfanent
Like Erik said, follow the money.


Agreed. So when a failed meteorologist from a private corporation tells you climate change isn't real; follow the money. It's funny to watch the climate change deniers make up all these facts so they can get paid and get debunked by members of NASA and highly regarded professors from Ivy League schools.


And thank you for yet another example of willful ignorance.

Joe Bastardi works for Weather Bell LLC, a private firm that provides long range forecasts to private businesses. He's known for the accuracy of his long range forecasts, and is paid rather well for it. (BTW, liberal sites will tell a different story, as he doesn't tout AGW) He's also not a local weather guy, but thanks for playing.


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Originally Posted By: kingodawg
Originally Posted By: jfanent
Like Erik said, follow the money. I don't know where Kingo got the 995-5 numbers,
I said very clearly that it was just an example and I had no idea of the actual numbers. I just used round numbers that were easy to figure percentages.

But how did I know someone was going to argue about the numbers I used?


I stand corrected. I didn't read it as closely as I should have.


And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir

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Did you trip sprinting to the computer to provide fake news? Dude works for a private firm that provides long range forecasts to private businesses and everyday citizens. His last job he was a weatherman for accuweather. He's still a weather man with only a BS in Meteorology from 79. He doesn't even understand the basics of climate science. He believes climatologists think that CO2 creates energy. You cannot argue with someone who is so wrong at the base level.

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Let me guess, no one gets to have an opinion unless they havery a PhD from a liberal slanted, ivy league university, right?


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Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Let me guess, no one gets to have an opinion unless they havery a PhD from a liberal slanted, ivy league university, right?


An opinion? I thought this dude was speaking #factsonly. Isn't that what you were just saying? I understand the coded switch between 'opinions' and 'facts' though. It makes arguing (being wrong) much easier. But no, everyone can have an opinion, but don't try to pass it off as a fact. Like a decade ago Bastardi posed his opinion as a fact, that we are in route to a global ice age in the next 2 decades. A decade later the facts say we have still increased in temperature. You cannot pose your opinion as a fact. That's his biggest problem. Also why are ivy league universities liberally slanted and not Penn State which is also liberally slanted? You're trying to turn this into a political argument because it's easier to argue opinions and not facts.

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Actually, the facts say there has been no increase in temps for the past 19 years.


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Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Actually, the facts say there has been no increase in temps for the past 19 years.


Yeah, when excluding the artic lmfao. Your defense that global warming isn't happening is literally always based on selective regions and not the world. This is becoming a joke.

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I still want someone to explain how the ice that covered much of the globe starting melting away centuries ago if this global warming is something new.

More ice has melted in the past then has melted now.

I still maintain that as ice fields shrink, their rate of melt becomes more rapid, or maybe I should say the visual results become more apparent.

Either way, this has been happening a long time.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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Poll for people who have questions about climate change:

Do you think rate of change matters?

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Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Let me guess, no one gets to have an opinion unless they havery a PhD from a liberal slanted, ivy league university, right?


An opinion? I thought this dude was speaking #factsonly. Isn't that what you were just saying? I understand the coded switch between 'opinions' and 'facts' though.


Let me see if I can explain this simply, in deference to you.

When someone sets up a scientific experiment, the scientific method calls for the scientist to give a hypothesis (otherwise known as an opinion) of the results. He then gathers facts and tests those facts to find the results. One should not change the facts to fit their hypothesis (opinion), but let the most honest experiment show the results of the facts at hand. From there, the scientist can then compare his findings to his original hypothesis, and present a new hypothesis if the facts showed the original was incorrect. If there is belief that all possibilities have not been explored, but a definite pattern of findings emerged in testing, the hypothesis is called a theory (also an opinion, but now a well educated one). From there, a proper scientist will continue to gather facts and retest to prove his theory.


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Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
Originally Posted By: jfanent
Like Erik said, follow the money.


Agreed. So when a failed meteorologist from a private corporation tells you climate change isn't real; follow the money. It's funny to watch the climate change deniers make up all these facts so they can get paid and get debunked by members of NASA and highly regarded professors from Ivy League schools.


And thank you for yet another example of willful ignorance.

Joe Bastardi works for Weather Bell LLC, a private firm that provides long range forecasts to private businesses. He's known for the accuracy of his long range forecasts, and is paid rather well for it. (BTW, liberal sites will tell a different story, as he doesn't tout AGW) He's also not a local weather guy, but thanks for playing.


I have known of Bastardi for probably 20 years since he was helping to start up the "personality weatherman" at Accuweather. He is a click bait hype artist who is wrong way more than he is right. And the other guy, I don't know who he is, so I bio'd him. From Wiki Marc Morano (born 1968)[1] is a former Republican political aide who founded and runs the website ClimateDepot.com.[2] ClimateDepot is a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), a non-profit organization based in Washington, D.C. that advocates for free-market solutions to environmental issues.[3].

Bad use of the web for researching your point Erik.

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This semantics game of yours is boring and your nomenclature makes you appear that you have a passing knowledge of the scientific method. Your post gains irony as Bastardi has never partook in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

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Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
This semantics game of yours is boring and your nomenclature makes you appear that you have a passing knowledge of the scientific method. Your post gains irony as Bastardi has never partook in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.


Oh yeah. Peer reviews are the highest standard of acedemia.

This one passed peer review too.
https://www.sciencealert.com/two-scienti...-edna-krabappel

And yes, I used to use scientific methodology daily when I was studying astrophysics about 25 years ago. Haven't used it in a classroom setting in quite some time, but that's the general gyst of it.


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Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
This semantics game of yours is boring and your nomenclature makes you appear that you have a passing knowledge of the scientific method. Your post gains irony as Bastardi has never partook in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.


Oh yeah. Peer reviews are the highest standard of acedemia.

This one passed peer review too.
https://www.sciencealert.com/two-scienti...-edna-krabappel


Yep. Bastardi can't even get his nonsense published in the fake journals. ctfu.

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Thanks for the links ...

Just curious ...

What makes a weatherman good or bad? ... whats the difference between a good and bad weatherman .. don't they just rely on their radar? ..




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Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Originally Posted By: CHSDawg
This semantics game of yours is boring and your nomenclature makes you appear that you have a passing knowledge of the scientific method. Your post gains irony as Bastardi has never partook in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.


Oh yeah. Peer reviews are the highest standard of acedemia.

This one passed peer review too.
https://www.sciencealert.com/two-scienti...-edna-krabappel


Yep. Bastardi can't even get his nonsense published in the fake journals. ctfu.


And it could possiby have anything to do with liberal acedemia refusing to peer review denier papers, or rubber stamping climate change papers.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/24/the_fix_is_in_99280.html


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j/c:

As someone who taught math and science for years, this topic interests me. I would love to respond and debunk some of the facts on global warming [especially how and why the studies are done] and the interpretation of the Scientific Method, but I better not.

LOL...........I'd probably get suspended again for telling the truth.

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Thats to bad ... I'd like to learn about how the studies are done and exactly what they take into account ...




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I'm not really an expert, but I'll say that while Math comes amazingly easy for me, I had to work a lot harder [research] at Science in order not to be a dope in the classroom. LOL

I'll only say that the issue is extremely political and scientists are hired by both sides to "prove" what is the "real truth" concerning climate change.

And that is a damn shame.

Heck, I researched the heck out of it and I still don't know the real truth. Both sides are excellent at writing convincing articles and discrediting the other side.

I will just say this: to ignore the issue would almost certainly be unwise and perhaps devastating.

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Hopefully, you won't find this article "boring" because I think it addresses some of the issues we are facing in regards to politics, science, and the public's perception ow what is going on. It is rather long, but it's an interesting read that the layman can understand.

Quote:

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Sorry Vers.....nobody read that....at least I didn't.



I could read it in a newpaper or book, but not on the computer on a football board.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

GM Strong




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http://communication.oxfordre.com/view/1...190228613-e-107

that should help. I had to find the original to read it. Kinda hate the orange font for wots.

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Didn't really help, but thanks for the effort.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

GM Strong




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Thanks .. I'll read it later ...

I was in the middle of reading the initial article by OCD and then al the articles that were linked ...

Its not easy reading for me ... i don't understand a lot of it ...

I wrote down quite a bit of what i read ... its the best way for me to learn ... i have some questions I'll get to later ...

Thanks again ..




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It's long and I figured most wouldn't read it. I did figure CHS would. He is an intellectual. I thought you would try because you like to learn.

I posted it because we have to consider that funding is very important to those who are doing the research. Both sides have their "scientists."

The thing that the essay suggests is that politics and science should never, ever be in bed together. Unfortunately, that is all too often the case.

If you really wanna learn...........go to USC and talk to some of the Science profs. Dr. Doug is a guy I used a lot to help me w/areas that I was weak on. I forget his last name, but just ask for Dr. Doug. He does a lot of work w/schools in the area.

Depending on articles that were written by guys who were funded by one side or the other is tricky. You really have to be good at comprehending because let's face it........those guys are way smarter than guys like you and me. They can talk BS and make it sound convincing as heck.

It's best to talk to scientists who are NOT being paid for their opinion. Does that make sense?

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It makes perfect sense ... I've always been a follow the money guy ... always ...

This is hard for me .. but i don't give up .. i hate failing and in my world i haven't failed until i give up ..

So far with what i read from this thread and the links in it and the little I've been able to slog through over the last couple years .. MY HEAD HURTS ... *L* ...

I'm not well educated in this area and these folks all have there agendas ... I'll read this tomorrow .. I've read to much today ... then I'll ask my questions ..

Thanks for the lead at USC ... i may very well do that .. may even take a course on it ...




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Are you 60 yet? You can take academic courses for free in SC if you are retired and 60+. I started taking some in Web Design and SEO's. Helps keep the mind young. Education is wonderful.

One word of advice as you try and educate yourself on this topic. Beware of those who act like they know for a fact which side is right. It's not even close to being that simple.

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Thanks for the info on free courses .. good to know ..

I'll ask a ton of questions and verify with others ... depending on how far i go down this rabbit hole ... I'll find one or two people on each side and present the other sides stuff to them ...




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More on the story about Miami...This is a two part article

Part one


Miami Beach’s battle to stem rising tides




Highlights
The city’s effort, so far a success, is test of engineering solutions to sea rise

‘Street of the future’ has two tiers and is very expensive

If climate projections hold true, entire region will face flood-control overhaul

Pedestrians in the Sunset Harbour neighborhood of Miami Beach navigate the newly elevated sidewalks that were built above the original sidewalks. The city of Miami Beach is working on a project to raise the roads and sidewalks in Sunset Harbour as part of its plan to safeguard the city from sea-level rise.


Miami Beach Engineer Bruce Mowry stands on 20th Street between Purdy Avenue and Bay Road next to a higher elevation sidewalk. The city is working on raising the street and sidewalks to safeguard it from sea-level rise.


BEFORE: City Engineer Bruce Mowry stands on the steps of Publix at 1920 West Ave. in Miami Beach in July.


AFTER: City Engineer Bruce Mowry stands on the same step of Publix at 1920 West Ave. in Miami Beach in September.


Oakley and Casey Jones, tourists from Idaho Falls, navigate the flooded streets of Miami Beach as they try to make their way to their hotel on Collins Avenue and 30th Street during a king tide in September.


People navigate the flooded streets of Miami Beach during a king tide on Sept. 28, 2015.


A worker tries to keep his feet dry as he hops through flooded streets in front of a Hop On - Hop Off tourist bus during high tide in Miami Beach on Sept. 28, 2015.


A man walks the flooded sidewalk along Indian Creek Drive and 30th Street in Miami Beach during a king tide in September.


A Miami Beach worker sloshes through Indian Creek Drive near 30th Street following a king tide on Sept. 28, 2015.


Florida International University hydrologist Henry Briceño and FIU field manager Jeff Absten test the water quality of Biscayne Bay near one of the city's pumping stations. The scientists are testing to see if the new pumps that the city has installed to help prevent flooding are causing any damage to the waters of the bay.


Florida International University field manager Jeff Absten, left, and FIU hydrologist Henry Briceño test the water quality of Biscayne Bay near one of the city's pumping stations.


Florida International University researchers test the water quality of Biscayne Bay near one of the city's pumping stations.


Florida International University researchers are testing the water quality of Biscayne Bay near the new pumps that the city is installing to help prevent flooding.


The September king tide flooded a Key Largo neighborhood with more than a foot of water that last two weeks.


More than two weeks after a September king tide, a heavy rain flooded streets in this Miami neighborhood near Coral Way and Southwest 23rd Street on Tuesday.


After a September high tide, water in this Fort Lauderdale canal washed over docks and into yards.

The control panel for a pump station now rises out of the ground at 20th Street and West Avenue in Sunset Harbour.


This rendering shows the the elevated roadway at 20th Street and Purdy Avenue, in front of Pubbelly restaurant. To the right, the patio in front of Pubbelly is about two feet lower than the street. Floor drains down there feed into the same pipes that connect to the curb drains on the road, which routes water to the pump station.


Miami Beach has put into action an aggressive and expensive plan to combat the effects of sea level rise. As some streets keep flooding from recent king tide events, the city continues rolling out its plan of attack and will spend between $400-$500 million over the next five years doing so. Emily Michot - emichot@miamiherald.com




Story by Joey Flechas and Jenny Staletovich


jflechas@miamiherald.com



Video and Images by Emily Michot



emichot@miamiherald.com



The sea started boiling up into the street. A major Miami Beach road was under water. Tourists sloshed to hotels through saltwater up to their shins, pants rolled up, suitcases in one hand, shoes in the other.



But one corner of Miami Beach stayed perfectly dry. In Sunset Harbour, which has historically flooded during seasonal high tides, the water was held at bay last month by a radically re-engineered streetscape that will be put to the test again this week with another king tide.

The design — featuring a street and sidewalk perched on an upper tier, 2 ½ feet above the front doors of roadside businesses, and backed by a hulking nearby pump house — represents what one city engineer called "the street of tomorrow."

This foundation for Miami Beach’s future is actually a complicated and expensive experiment: As much as $500 million to install 80 pumps and raise roads and seawalls across the city. A first phase appears to be working, at least for now. But just one year into a massive public works project that could take six more, it’s way too soon to say whether and for how long it can keep the staggeringly valuable real estate of an international tourist mecca dry — especially in the face of sea level rise projections that seem to only get scarier with every new analysis.

"We don’t have a playbook for this," said Betsy Wheaton, assistant building director for environment and sustainability in Miami Beach.

But in many ways, Miami Beach is writing just that — the first engineering manual for adapting South Florida’s urban landscape to rising seas. The entire southern tip of the peninsula tops climate change risk lists but Beach leaders have acted with the most urgency, waiving competitive bidding and approving contracts on an emergency basis to fast-track the work. Tidal flooding lapping at posh shops and the yards of pricey homes makes a persuasive argument that climate change isn’t only real, but a clear and present threat.

Read more about Miami Beach fast-tracking sea level rise projects without competitive bids

The vulnerability of the low-lying western edge of the "billion dollar sandbar’’ — real estate that pioneering developer Carl Fisher literally dredged up from Biscayne Bay —is topped only by the Florida Keys, where even a half-foot more ocean will inundate large chunks of some islands like Big Pine. That’s sobering when a conservative projection from a regional climate change compact predicts at least two feet by 2060. A study released this month, factoring in new data on unchecked greenhouse gas emissions, predicts a potential five-foot rise.

"We’re looking at fairly substantial, very hard decisions," said Rhonda Haag, Monroe County’s chief of sustainability. "All is not lost. We’re good for the next 15 years but we’re doing as much as we can to prepare in advance.”

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, along with Monroe, are part of a landmark 2009 compact that acknowledged the reality of climate change — a major achievement on a politically divisive issue. But on the mainland, where it may take a few more decades to see the inland thrust of tidal flooding already happening in the Keys and on the Beach, there has been a lot more talking than doing.

That’s largely because — as the Beach’s ambitious endeavor underlines — rebuilding South Florida to survive rising seas will come at considerable cost. Each Beach pumps runs $2 to $3 million, a relative pittance. Overhauling major flood canal gates and pumps along the Miami-Dade coast could be hundreds of times more costly. In the long term looms the daunting, big-dollars prospect of raising homes, roads, buildings. It will all add up to billions.




Then there are the ripple effects of years of construction, traffic jams and potential environmental damage — the still undetermined consequences of pumping runoff tainted by fertilizer, dog poop and road spills into Biscayne Bay or deep underground beneath a fresh water aquifer that will also shrink as the ocean encroaches. Just trying to coordinate such a massive effort between governments can be hugely complex.

“You look around and say show me a project and we still have a hard time,” said Jennifer Jurado, director of Broward County’s division of Natural Resources Planning and Management. “Part of the problem is it’s not uniform or comprehensive in the approach.”

For now, the effort on the Beach is the best test of the potential for pumps, pipes and asphalt to keep the rest of South Florida dry into the next century.



Old problem getting worse

Any Beach old-timer will tell you the city has flooded for decades during king tides — the same thing happens in much of low-lying Florida. But all the data and tide gauges confirm it’s getting worse.

"The king tides have gotten higher in recent years," said Colin Polsky, director of the center for environmental studies at Florida Atlantic University. "And the king tides we’re seeing more recently have been higher than they were predicted to be."

On the Beach, damage to cars, businesses and homes from flooding — both from high tides and rains — had steadily mounted. "During a flash flood in June 2009, we lost 47 vehicles in our garage," said Ron Wolff, who lives at the Mirador 1200 condo tower on West Avenue.

With flooding growing from occasional annoyance to economic concern, in 2012 the city crafted a bold blueprint for overhauling an antiquated stormwater system that relied on gravity to drain into the bay. Higher tides increasingly backed up the drain pipes and even reversed the flow, turning the system into a conduit to pump seawater up through sewer grates onto heavily traveled arteries like Alton Road.

A new commission and mayor in 2013 has pushed to replumb the city even faster, dropping an initial idea to drill underground injection wells with fewer environmental risks. The new system collects flood waters, screens out large debris like plastic bottles and pumps it back out into Biscayne Bay through one-way valves known as backflow preventers that keep rising Biscayne Bay waters from flooding drainage pipes. The plan also calls for raising seawalls, most of which are on private property, and raising some roads.

The first new pumps, powerful enough to constantly slurp the flooding tide and spit it back out into Biscayne Bay, were installed last year in some of the city’s worst hot spots: Alton Road, West Avenue, Sunset Harbour and Crespi Boulevard in North Beach. They’ve kept roads dry through a first round of fall tides.






But even Mayor Philip Levine, the biggest cheerleader of efforts to "rise above” sea level rise, would acknowledge that pumps alone represent a temporary fix – a 30- to 40-year buffer. If future projections hold true, more roads will have to be raised — along with buildings — as the rising sea pushes up through the porous limestone sponge underlying much of South Florida. First floors might have to be vacated, rusting infrastructure replaced, codes and building elevations dramatically beefed up.

Flooding in other neighborhoods during high tides also makes it clear there’s a long way to go beyond the $100 million first phase.

"We haven’t solved anything yet," said Miami Beach Public Works Director Eric Carpenter. "We’re getting there, and we’re trying to deal with as many neighborhoods as we can."

The scope of work needed even for a relatively small city like Miami Beach, home to about 90,000 permanent residents but far more visitors, is huge, requiring tearing up streets and disrupting traffic across the barrier island.


West Avenue will be raised next. Upcoming drainage work: Lower North Bay Road, Normandy Isle, La Gorce, and Palm, Hibiscus & Venetian Islands

The seawall along Indian Creek Drive — the city’s new ground zero for what Levine calls "sunny-day flooding" — also needs to be replaced. Property owners across the street are responsible for most of the wall, so owners will have to work with the city to make the upgrades. Indian Creek Drive and Collins Avenue are maintained by the state, so the Florida Department of Transportation has to step in. DOT spokeswoman Ivette Ruiz-Paz said in an email that five pump stations are currently under analysis but the agency hasn’t produced cost estimates yet or said when its analysis will be done.

The daunting cost of resiliency

So far, despite the mounting science and the flooding scenes playing out in South Florida, Tallahassee has largely ignored resiliency planning and projects, particularly the costs. Just this year, Gov. Rick Scott — who has largely dodged the climate change issue throughout his tenure — vetoed $750,000 for the Beach’s pump program.

The reason? The project "does not provide a clear return on investment."

Scott might be well served by talking to Beach hotel and business owners. During one of the tidal floods last month, a supervisor at the Alden Hotel on Indian Creek Drive handed out plastic trash bags for guests to wrap around their legs as they stepped down into floodwaters in front of the hotel. The higher-than predicted floods hurt profits.

"We’ve had cancellations. Some people have left early," said Jennifer Hernandez, adding that she couldn’t blame them. "They came here on vacation, and this is what they get."


$400-$500 millionis the estimated cost of Miami Beach’s sea rise projects

Beyond the strident politics of climate change, the high cost of re-engineering and rebuilding for impacts still decades down the road represents the biggest hurdle for policy makers and planners. Most notably, Miami-Dade County decided to rebuild an aging and leak-prone sewage plant on Virginia Key — as vulnerable to sea rise as Miami Beach — because moving it would cost an additional $3 billion. It took considerable pressure from environmental groups during Miami-Dade’s recent budget process to get $300,000 earmarked for engineering work to help the county prepare its infrastructure. That’s just money for planning, not actually building anything.

On the Beach, problems were big enough that political leaders were willing to risk raising rates on residents to pay for it. What was initially projected as a $200 million overhaul is now estimated at between $400 and $500 million. The money will come from residents who pay stormwater fees, taxes and — if there is political support — from the state and federal governments.

Beach commissioners raised stormwater rates by 84 percent last year to secure $90 million worth of bonds to start work in the fall of 2014, when pumps quickly went in along the southwestern shore of the barrier island. The cost to the typical resident rose from $9.06 to $16.67 per month.

And those rates will likely keep going up in the future. Bond rating agency Moody’s gave the bond issuance a negative outlook because of anticipated debt in the future, coupled with a need for rate hikes. This could ultimately impact the city’s credit rating.

Though the Beach is far out front, most experts believe the entire region will require a massive investment. Harvey Ruvin, Miami-Dade County’s clerk of courts and chair of a county task force on sea level rise, told a room full of real estate agents at a recent conference that regional leaders need to start planning now and implementing solutions now.

People all over the world want a piece of South Florida. But will they still want it if they don’t think we can keep our heads above water?

"We have too much at stake to question whether we should embark upon this adaptation mission," he said. "We got $6 trillion worth of built environment."

A model for South Florida’s future

The rest of coastal South Florida is closely watching what works — and doesn’t — on the Beach.

Sandwiched between the ocean and the low-lying Everglades, the mainland response to climate change will be far trickier. It’s not just a matter of stopping floods. The region will also have to take steps to protect its water supply — the Biscayne aquifer is one of the most porous on the planet, highly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion. Any flood control measures will also have to factor in $10 billion in Everglades restoration work intended to fix the ailing river of grass that once supplied much of the region’s freshwater and has withered to less than half its historic flow.


South Florida sits atop the Biscayne aquifer, made of porous limestone, which is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion

On top of that, efforts need to be coordinated so that one city’s efforts don’t undo work by say, water managers. A big step will come when governments start changing building codes, something that will take a lot of political will.

“Developers have said to me, ‘We will not self regulate. We need leadership from our government,” said Miami-Dade County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava, who was elected last year and is teaming up with Commissioner Rebeca Sosa to bridge the political divide and move forward on a suite of resolutions Miami-Dade County passed earlier this year.

What’s still lacking, said Levine Cava, who was in Washington this week meeting with lawmakers and the Everglades caucus, is a sense of urgency.

“It’s not so much denial that it’s not true,” she said. “It’s denying the urgency.”

But nature seems to be increasingly making the case. This past king tide, parts of Key Largo were flooded with knee deep water for more than two weeks. One angry resident, a lawyer, is investigating a class action. A recent model by the U.S. Geological Survey shows saltwater intrusion within a half mile of the South Dade wellfields that supply freshwater to all of the Keys.

“We’re getting to the point where we can determine that there are certain areas where certain influences are stronger than others,” said Dorothy Sifuentes, a supervisory hydrologist at USGS’s Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center in Davie.

What that means is that in some areas, saltwater may sneak into the aquifer through canals. In others, it may push in from the ocean.

The South Florida Water Management District, whose pumps and flood control structures play a key role in keeping the region dry and drinking water safe, identified 20 vulnerable pumps six years ago. But with five years of budget cuts, only one pump has been fixed. The district is now in the midst of a second study to assess structures at risk.

“We need to understand what is the true level of service today with this changed condition, and when I say changed I mean land use now —not what they used at the time — and sea level rise. Perhaps the rainfall patterns have changed too,” said Jayantha Obeysekera, who oversees modeling for the district. “Before we come up with the solution. we need to understand the present vulnerabilities of the system.”

Knowing the general threat from sea level rise is one thing. But now governments find themselves trying to nail down the nitty gritty needed for specific changes.

“It is a lengthy, laborious planning process but if you don’t have those types of investments made how do you defend against projects and increasing costs so it just doesn’t seem arbitrary,” Jurado said.

The ripple effects of resiliency

So far, the work on the Beach has succeeded at keeping more streets dry. But questions and ripple effects abound.

Critics of the pumps — including residents who have seen clouds of murky bay water near the outfalls — have argued that pumping water without chemical treatment will cause problems for marine life in Biscayne Bay.

City officials say the murk is simply sediment kicked up as pumps gush water at high pressure into the bay. They also argue the drainage system is cleaner than the old one, now at least screening out gutter trash like bags and plastic bottles.

Preliminary water sampling late last year by Florida International University researchers showed nutrient levels in some parts of the bay were six times higher than before high tides kicked on the pumps, which could trigger toxic algae blooms. Scientists will be out there again on Tuesday, during the next king tide, to test pollution levels.

"We want to know if the waters are good quality," said FIU hydrologist Henry Briceño, who is working with the city to examine the test results. "If there’s any problem, the city will have to do something."


Then there is the nightmare of seemingly unending construction.

The Beach has long had traffic issues, especially on weekends. But the storm water overhaul has made jams an everyday occurrence, particularly in South Beach. Torn up sidewalks and roaring construction equipment have turned strolls to the store into loud, dusty, unpleasant treks.

Building the "street of the future," it turns out, has made for a difficult present for many businesses.

"It was tedious, with the construction, to keep the numbers up," said Antonio Villa del Rey, manager at Azul Spirits and Wines at 1414 20th Street. The sidewalk outside his front door now lies two feet below the road. He was at first skeptical, worried the flooding would fill the lower walkway. But road and sidewalk remained dry during the most recent high tide.

"Surprisingly, the system seems to be holding up," he said.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/co...l#storylink=cpy

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Part 2...


October 25, 2015 10:19 PM

Second in a series. Read part one here.

Every fall when the king tides roll in, the most obvious sign of climate change asserts itself in South Florida: flooding everywhere, from submerged roads in Miami to waves washing across neighborhoods in the Keys to swamped docks and yards in Fort Lauderdale’s canal-side homes.

But beyond the flooding, a more insidious problem is at work. South Florida’s water is changing.

Under climate change projections, beaches and bays that draw tourists and anglers and help fuel a booming real estate industry could grow saltier and more polluted.

Underground saltwater is already spoiling the aquifer and moving closer to drinking water supplies for six million residents. If the Everglades dries up more than it already has, peat soil that provides the scaffolding for an entire ecosystem could collapse. This summer, a dangerous fog of yellow sulfur appeared in Florida Bay, triggered by a regional drought that under climate change projections would occur more often. And just this month, scientists reported that a massive coral bleaching event in the Pacific triggered by rising ocean temperatures had spread to the Caribbean.


In its simplest terms, climate change is threatening the state’s most vital resource: water.


It’s really mind boggling to witness it happening that fast, in less than a human lifetime.


Chris Bergh, South Florida conservation director for the Nature Conservancy

“It’s really mind boggling to witness it happening that fast, in less than a human lifetime,” said Chris Bergh, South Florida conservation director for the Nature Conservancy. “No question we’ll adapt. The question is when and how much it will cost.”

And whether the increasingly stressed environment can tolerate our presence.

Last year, when Miami Beach turned on four new pumps — the first of dozens planned to keep the city dry — FIU hydrologist Henry Briceno sent a team to sample water in Biscayne Bay to see whether the mass flushing had any effect. Samples revealed a sixfold increase in pollution in some parts of the bay. Phosphorus, nitrogen and other agents were being carried by groundwater pushed up through soil loaded with fertilizers and dog poop and onto dirty streets. Pumps then carried the water, filtered for debris like plastic bottles but otherwise untreated, into the bay.

“People think that when they see the city flooded by seawater, it’s water from the beach. It’s not,” he said. “Those waters are problematic. They are not good.”

Briceno’s team will be back out this week when another king tide is forecast, gathering water samples that will help clear up the still murky impacts. Miami-Dade County and the Beach are still working out a plan to monitor environmental impacts.


6 to 10 inches New sea rise projections for 2030 released this month by the four-county Southeast Florida Regional Compact

Beyond urban Miami, scientists say inshore waters are also changing. Since 1996, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has monitored water about 1,600 feet from shore around the Florida Keys for signs of waste that could pollute fragile marine areas. As expected, the level of nutrients has been high, creating what scientists call a halo zone.

In the short term, the high tides may actually help flush damaging nutrients from nearshore waters, said Billy Causey, NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuaries regional director. But that’s a temporary boon more than offset by rising ocean temperatures. With high temps increasing salinity and lowering oxygen, fewer nutrients can cause a lot more damage, particularly to coral.


Miami Beach skips public bids to move fast on sea rise projects

Miami Beach skips public bids to move fast on sea rise projects

Miami Beach’s battle to stem rising tides

Miami Beach’s battle to stem rising tides


Fred Grimm: South Florida’s rising sea delusions seem awfully wet, deep and scary

Fred Grimm: South Florida’s rising sea delusions seem awfully wet, deep and scary



“We don’t give water temperatures enough blame for what’s happening to our system,” he said. “It’s one of the real impacts on coral reef ecosystems.”

CREEPING IN

Sea rise also will increasingly challenge the region’s massive network of flood control structures that play a key role in protecting South Florida’s precious fresh water supply, much of it in the underground Biscayne Aquifer.

Since 1955, the U.S. Geological Survey has tracked the westward creep of underground saltwater. Because South Florida’s drinking water supply sits above heavier saltwater in pocked limestone — imagine a hardened sponge — water can easily flow back and forth. To keep saltwater out, South Florida water managers maintain canals higher than the ocean — creating a wall of water — to separate fresh water and sea water with a system of massive coastal gates.

As sea level inches up, keeping out that salt water will become more challenging because canals can be raised only so far without crippling their ability to control flooding. The drainage capacity of the entire system, which relies on pumps and gravity to slough storm water into the bay, is also slowly decreasing as sea levels rise.

The last time the South Florida Water Management District assessed that risk was in 2009. According to a document provided by the district, 20 flood control structures were expected to fail with as little as a half foot rise in sea level, the levels now projected for the region in 15 years. Another nine were in danger if seas rise between a half foot and five feet.

The inland creep of saltwater has already put some wellfields in Broward County out of service. The county has stopped using two southern wellfields, said Mike Zygnerski, a hydrologist with the county’s water resources assessment section. Deerfield Beach closed its eastern wells. Hallandale no longer uses six of its eight wells and Dania moved a wellfield west. Hollywood only uses two of its three wellfields, he said.

Imagine what will happen with a higher sea level.


It’s physics. The higher the water level, the easier it is for wellfields to be compromised.


Broward County Water Resources hydrologist Mike Zygnerski

“It’s physics. The higher the water level, the easier it is for wellfields to be compromised,” Zygnerski said.

With most of its wellfields located farther west, Miami-Dade County is on safer ground, said Virginia Walsh, the county’s chief hydrogeologist. But that’s not to say officials aren’t worried. Four new wells are now being installed to monitor the salt front, Walsh said. Staff is also closely watching the south end of the county, where in just 10 years the front has moved nearly two miles closer to a wellfield that is the only source of freshwater in the Keys. A handful of county wells that use the field are being phased out, Walsh said.

When the county modeled the progress of the front last year, using old sea rise projections of nine to 24 inches by 2060, scientists found wellfields “in pretty good shape,” Walsh said. Whether that holds with new projections now being fed into the models remains to be seen.

Modeling groundwater flow through the Biscayne aquifer, one of the most porous on the planet, can be complicated and only as good as the information fed into it, said Dorothy Sifuentes, a supervisory hydrologist with USGS’s Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center in Davie. The limestone rock that forms the aquifer is filled with holes in limitless sizes. Saltwater can dissolve the limestone, which could open new conduits that allow the salt front to move even faster and farther inland. And if oceans become more acidic, the question becomes: Could limestone erode faster?

IF THE PEAT GOES

In the Everglades, scientists are just starting to understand what could happen if the freshwater marshes get saltier. At the foundation of the marsh is a boggy soil called peat, made of decomposed sawgrass and other plants held together by plant roots and very little actual soil. If salt gets into the peat, it can act like a detergent and loosen the soil to break apart the peat, said University of Florida biogeochemist Todd Osborne.

“It doesn’t dissolve, it just becomes more oozy,” he said.

Peat also forms very slowly, at about one millimeter a year. A strong storm surge could potentially wipe out a foot of peat. “That’s 250 years of soil-building lost in a matter of days,” he said.

Up until now, most peat loss — what scientists call subsidence — has been attributed to flood controls that drained large parts of the upper Everglades to make way for farming. But if enough saltwater creeps into the lower range, Florida’s marshy tip could disappear.

While loss of habitat would obviously wreak havoc on the ecosystem, scientists are considering another more ominous problem in the climate change equation. The spongy soil traps huge amounts of carbon. If seas overtake the marshes, carbon stashed in the peat would move into the atmosphere’s worsening carbon loop. The carbon also carries nutrients that could make warming oceans more vulnerable to toxic algae blooms. Early signs of an algae bloom have already been spotted in Florida Bay, where a summer drought helped kill at least 13 square miles of seagrass and left a cloud of yellow sulfur that scientists fear could spread to 75 square miles.


It’s a double bad for Florida Bay and for us and the environment


University of Florida biogeochemist Todd Osborne

“It’s a double bad for Florida Bay and for us and the environment,” Osborne said. “It’s a one-two punch.”

‘ON THE VERGE’

If it were only water on the streets and in canals that needed to be pumped, addressing climate change in South Florida might be easier. But there are more complicated problems — with trickier solutions that involve policy as much as science — that are still being understood by scientists.

At Turkey Point, cooling canals used to keep Florida Power & Light’s two nuclear reactors chugging have been getting warmer, helping fuel a massive algae bloom that makes it hard for water to cool and do its job. The canals are contributing to an underground plume of saltwater, which led Miami-Dade County, the city of Miami and environmental groups to sue to force the utility to control the plume. Biscayne National Park officials also fear the plume may be making the bay saltier. Last month, the utility proposed using injection wells to pump escaping canal water deep beneath the Biscayne aquifer.

Rising global temperatures also mean South Florida could see 20 percent less annual rainfall. Less rain means more droughts. For Florida Bay, which depends heavily on rainfall to help freshen the bay’s mini basins, that could increase the frequency of seagrass die-offs. And if grasses die, scientists fear the return of the kind of slimy algae bloom that sickened the bay for years after a 1992 event.

“I’m concerned we’re on the verge of it happening again,” Causey said.

Biscayne Bay will also face challenges. Miami-Dade County has been sampling water at 87 spots around the bay for the last 37 years. Scientists look for an array of things, but pay particular attention to the two chemicals that trigger algae blooms, nitrogen and phosphorus, and signs of fecal matter. Overall the bay is healthier than years past because of tougher regulations, said Jamie Monty, who oversees water sampling. But for several years now, an algae bloom has persisted in the central part of the bay between Dinner Key and the Coral Gables Waterway, she said.

Fecal matter also tends to increase during wet, summer months when more stormwater washes into the bay, she said. And that could spell trouble if seas rise and more streets are flooded, a likely scenario under the latest sea rise projections.

Just this month, the Southeast Florida Regional Compact — the four-county partnership formed to address climate change — doubled the rise of sea level expected in the next 15 years to between six and 10 inches. By 2060, that number could rise as high as 26 inches and more than double that, to 61 inches, by 2100.

Predictions are even more dire in a study that appeared earlier this month in the peer reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Princeton ecologist Benjamin Strauss. By mapping out unavoidable sea level rise — the levels already projected regardless of greenhouse gas reductions — he predicts 414 cities across the U.S. will be underwater by 2100. Of those, Florida stands to lose the most, with 40 percent of its population affected by rising seas.

“We’re already seeing changes in our weather patterns. We’re seeing some of the most massive organics on the planet — coral reefs — around the globe affected in a very predictable pattern. We can predict it two weeks out,” Causey said. “That tells you something. That makes a statement that this is real.”

MAKING A PLAN

How the region addresses these problems remains to be seen.

Miami-Dade County officials have long incorporated changes in tidal flooding into infrastructure plans, but are not ready to buy into online mapping tools that show huge swaths of the county underwater, depicting with grim effect flooding in tony parts of Coral Gables, fast-building Doral and Miami Springs.

“Any forecasts for higher tidal elevations, sea level rise if you want to call it that, but it’s just tidal elevation, is being put into the current master plan modeling,” said Marina Blanco-Pape, director of stormwater planning for the county.

Blanco-Pape said the models oversimplify and amplify problems, and she predicts most of the inundation will be confined to the coast and uninhabited southern reaches.

“The county in the developed areas is not just a big bathtub that you put water in and the level rises,” she said.

With projections shifting and sometimes uncertain, the county plans on sticking with numbers adopted by the compact and adjusting projects based on their location and their use.

“We’re constantly going to be changing what we do based on new information. And we can’t plan now for 2100,” said Nicole Hefty, chief of the county’s sustainability office. “It’s going to be a very stepwise process for the rest of our time here in the county. This is the new way we’re going to be doing things.”

In Monroe County, officials holding workshops with residents to talk about sea rise got caught off-guard by the September king tide, which triggered heavy flooding all along the island chain and left parts of Key Largo in knee-deep water for more than two weeks. Furious residents are wondering why they can’t have Miami Beach-style pumps.

“It’s not a simple matter. Remember we’re an island and when you elevate a road it doesn’t necessarily solve your problems,” said Sustainability Chief Rhonda Haag. “Are we going to have to look at different ways [for people] to get to their houses? Are they going to have to use skiffs to get to the house? We don’t know.”

That is not the answer Frank Garces was looking for.

“That’s insane,” said Garces, a Miami native, who moved into a new house with his wife four months ago with no warning about flooding risks. After being swamped for a week, Garces rented a truck for his wife to avoid damaging her 2013 Mercedes-Benz sedan, and then, tired of seeing trash cans toppled by waves and garbage tangled in mangroves, he started a petition to get the county to fix the flooding. Neighbors, he said, have considered filing a class action lawsuit against the county after years of frustration.

“They can’t reasonably turn the Keys into the United States of Venice,” he said. “I’m sure there’s no easy solution or else it would have been done by now, but certainly smarter people than me can sit down and figure things out.”

Staff writer Joey Flechas contributed to this report

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article41416653.html#storylink=cpy

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The earth is 4.7 billion years old. Geologists categorize earth's history into geological periods, called epoch's. On the scale of 600 million years at a time, traditionally labeled by mass extinction, see the KT boundary. We have a new name for this new epoch, Anthropocene.

Influenced by humans, we have to protect biodiversity on planet earth. Biodiversity is the purest thing humans know.


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Side note, climate observation from the 2007, and 2011 IPCC reports are running on the high end of projections


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Originally Posted By: BuckDawg1946
Side note, climate observation from the 2007, and 2011 IPCC reports are running on the high end of projections


What do u mean by running on the high end of projections? ... not sure what that means ...

Does it mean that were affecting climate change at a "very high rate" ..

Or does it mean those reports are saying we affect it at a faster rate in comparision to the results of other studies ..

Or is it something entirely different that i have no clue about ... *L* ...




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j/c

What I find so amusing is that some people tend to act as if the money trail only comes from one side. Don't they know that the fossil fuel and big business funnel money into the other side?

If you want to talk about following the money, maybe you should be honest and look at the money on both sides of the argument and not act as if it doesn't exist.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
j/c

What I find so amusing is that some people tend to act as if the money trail only comes from one side. Don't they know that the fossil fuel and big business funnel money into the other side?

If you want to talk about following the money, maybe you should be honest and look at the money on both sides of the argument and not act as if it doesn't exist.


Maybe you should be honest and see what side always has scandals from faking research.


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When are you and Bastardi going to be honest with the effects of CO2 in the atmosphere?

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Originally Posted By: ErikInHell
Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
j/c

What I find so amusing is that some people tend to act as if the money trail only comes from one side. Don't they know that the fossil fuel and big business funnel money into the other side?

If you want to talk about following the money, maybe you should be honest and look at the money on both sides of the argument and not act as if it doesn't exist.


Maybe you should be honest and see what side always has scandals from faking research.


Maybe you should be honest and admit that both sides have scientific studies [that they funded] that "proves" their point.

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Originally Posted By: BuckDawg1946
The earth is 4.7 billion years old.


Say Scientists and Fake news!


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