DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Next Up-Irma

Unfortunately,
a tropical wave off the coast of Africa quickly made it to tropical depression and within a day and a half has made it to Hurricane Irma and probably by tonight will make it to major hurricane status and it will still grow stronger from there. There is model divergence as to whether this will go up the backside of high pressure in the middle Atlantic and ride up the east coast/slightly out to sea or stay south and track across the islands into Florida and then the gulf.
I see no reason that by mid next week this is not a Cat 4/Cat 5


000
WTNT31 KNHC 311448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward
motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by
tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Yikes ... sure hope that hurricane doesn't get into the Gulf Of Mexico.

It has already made it to major hurricane status.
And while we are still about 10 days out from any solution, most of the outcomes are not good.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-30769-1504210233_thumb.jpg

If we come out of this holiday weekend and the forecast models look like they have the last couple days, there is going to be widespread panic along the east coast. A sub 900 mb storm off of Florida hitting middle eastern seaboard a around 910 mb cat 5 (Andrew was 922) and moving into Philly DC area as a cat 3.
Still time

Right turn, Irma!!!

There's at least one model that shows Irma going all the way to Chicago.

Why is UTulsa (as in Oklahoma) the Golden Hurricanes?

GOLDEN HURRICANE NICKNAME

The only time a Hurricane ever hits Tulsa is when the Tulsa Golden Hurricane plays in a sports event.

So how did the name come about?

The school that had started out as Henry Kendall College in Muskogee in 1894, moved to Tulsa in 1907 but kept the name until 1920.

Nicknames for the college included Kendallites, Presbyterians, Tigers, Orange and Black, and the Yellow Jackets.

But the new football coach in 1922, Howard Acher, wanted a distinctive name, according to Robert Rutland’s 1952 book, “The Golden Hurricane: Fifty Years of Football at the University of Tulsa.”

Upon hearing someone comment that Tulsa had roared through opponents like a tornado, Acher wanted the nickname to be Golden Tornadoes. The Golden part came from the color of the new team jerseys.

But Acher found out that Georgia Tech was using the nickname Golden Tornado at the time, so with Acher wanting something unique, he turned to the weather-linked nickname Golden Hurricane.

LINK

hey thx d66 very interesting

Fightin' Presbyterians



I wonder if they ever played Notre Dame.



It would be a jihad on the football field. (holy war)

still early to tell, but hopefully it avoids much landfall in USA

Waves of remnants of Harvey have been passing through Connecticut all day today.

Heavy, heavy downpours for 10 minutes then nothing for an hour. Then repeat.

It's amazing to think what this was like a week ago and 1,500 miles away.

right now looking like it will be high end cat 4 or cat 5 by Wednesday and aiming towards Miami.
And soon to be Jose also looks like it will be growing stronger out in the Atlantic.


000
WTNT41 KNHC 041449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

The satellite presentation of Irma has improved markedly over the
past 24 hours, with the eye becoming larger and much more distinct.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported peak 700-mb flight
level winds of 117 kt, SFMR winds of 107 kt, and dropsonde data
that support a minimum pressure of around 944 mb. These data
support an initial intensity of 105 kt. The aircraft also reported
concentric eyewalls and a double wind maximum during the last couple
of passes through the center, indicating that an eyewall
replacement cycle has likely begun.

Irma is expected to remain within a very favorable environment for
strengthening during the next several days and additional
intensification appears likely. However, eyewall replacement cycles
are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time.
The NHC forecast brings the hurricane to category 4 strength within
the next 24 hours, and then maintains Irma as a powerful hurricane
during the next 5 days, assuming that the core of the cyclone does
not move over any of the Greater Antilles.

Irma has been moving west-southwestward or 255/11 kt to the south of
a strong mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The hurricane
should turn westward later today or tonight, then west-northwestward
Tuesday as it reaches the southwestern portion of the ridge. As
mentioned in the previous NHC discussion, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to amplify over the eastern United States during
the next few days. The global models are unanimous in lifting the
trough out to the northeast by late in the week, allowing the
Atlantic ridge to build westward on days 3 through 5. The track
guidance has again shifted westward and southwestward at days 4 and
5, but the models remain in very good agreement through the forecast
period. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
southwestward late in the period, and lies very near the consensus
of the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models.

Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the
environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data
will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as a
dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip
currents. Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the
Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as
tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the
hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Hurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions
will begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.
Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts
Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone
in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 53.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 17.3N 59.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 18.2N 62.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.9N 68.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 21.2N 73.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA

Looks like this storm is likely headed to Florida. Then possibly to Georgia.

I dont care if it comes here. Just don't knock down my trees. I have some funky trees.

yeah, looks like FLA is a direct target right now. Saturday afternoon was what I saw

Yea, it's going to mess with college and the NFL this weekend

11 am update Irma was 931 mb with 180 mph sustained winds.

And within the last half hour the hurricane hunters recon has officially just marked a 927mb pressure reading on the map....Should continue to drop....

Also picked up a 923.6mb reading.........

Florida has nothing to worry about.

Rush Limbaugh thinks Irma is a liberal hoax in order to push the climate change agenda.

so everyone who lives in Florida, make sure to hit the beach this weekend.

185 MPH winds? You kiddin' me?

That's 185 mph SUSTAINED winds.

That'll mess up your hair.

Here's something you can try at home.

1) Rent a Maserati (for one hour ~ $500)
2) Take it up to 185 mph on an interstate during off hours, and
3) Stick your head out the window.

So my Dad lives in Tampa. On the water. His seawall is maybe 5 feet tall.

This needs to not go that way.

Still stronger-916 mb
Buoy had 193 mph winds.
They has a storm surge/wave map for Miami if it took a hit just to its south. Wave height at landfall were calculated at something like 48.1 feet

Crazy... Praying it turned east...

The visitors to the keys are being told to get out.. Scary. Gas and food already in short supply. Already reports of Gas Stations telling people, We are out of regular, you gotta buy premium.

In Orlando I already have a good amount of water but I went to buy another case of it because I might have family coming here too. Couldn't find any. Stores were just about cleared out.

I believe at 7 tonight all resident of the keys have to go. they don't believe they can withstand the storm surge and waves coming.
I just checked as I was eating lunch and this storm if it doesn't rub across any high land in Cuba or Puerto Rico is still supposed to deepen another 20+ mille bars before it turns north.
It is trending east a small bit. For ever little bit it goes east, people around Savannah and Hilton Head need to start thinking about what ifs

I am listening to 610 out of Miami and they said that Walmart has a special warehouse for storm supplies and that they were bringing essentials like water to Florida. I know demand has been great for a couple days now for water, gas, and other storm supplies.

You can fill empty containers with tap water for now.
When the storm is closing in, fill the bathtub with water in case you lose power and the toilets won't flush due to pumps going down. Bucket flushing will work.

You also have 50 gallons or so in your hot water heater.

I am a casual prepper, so I have water, but I hadnt thought of that. Good idea!

Didnt we used to have a poster from Key West? Key West Bow Wow, or something like that?

Yes, but you should not drink that as it is always warm/hot and may contain bacteria. Boil it before drinking it.
It is great for flushing the toilets tho.

Cook up some food ahead of time so you don't need to be messing with fire during the storm. If electric goes out you may lose use of the stove too.

Freeze a couple of half jugs of water in your freezer.
Half jugs allow for expansion when the water freezes.
Then if you lose power, the fridge will work like an old timey Ice Box because of those frozen jugs.

I remember that name!. Hope everyone down there stays safe, and I'm glad I live in a part of the world without extreme weather: no earthquakes, bad hurricanes, tornados or that sort of thing.

I saw a cool picture from the flood in Houston, a guy/gal took half a dozen of those real heavy lawn/leaf trash bags and filled them with storm water and tied them off... then stacked them in the doorway to the house.... since it's a liquid it molded itself and blocked the doorway 100%. Using flood water to keep out the flood water... pretty cool idea.

Where's Florida?

I'm hungry.

In the 40 years I've been in New England, there's been ~ 3-4 hurricanes that made it up here.

Maybe 2-3 significant tornadoes.

But the worst, most damaging storm I recall was the Halloween blizzard of 2011.

Much of Rocky Hill was without power for a week.

The leaves were still on the trees and all came off at once causing Widespread power line damage on almost every street.

Same with a lot of the state.

My apartment complex was without power for 4-5 days. (that's ~ 1,000 apartment units).

No lights, no heat, cell phone was dead after 2-3 days.

I actually stayed in my apartment for 3 days thinking any second power would be restored. Boy did that suck.

Laying by the glass deck doors to read. Eating cold cans of Clam Chowder. No garbage disposal (for dishes). Obviously no TV or PC.



The bathroom is an inner room - no windows, no light.

Showers and toilet trips were an adventure. And cold (no hot water).

Just listen to how powerful the hurricane is, it's actually frightening:

Feel so bad for those in the path of this monster.