DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum College Football

Notre dame is getting schooled...

I told everyone 3 weeks ago ... no way we win out cause our QB is way to innacurate ...

1st series he could have thrown 3 picks and missed a guy WIDE OPEN for 6 ....

2nd series the pick fest begins ....

What upset me wasn’t that .. i expected that at some point .... didn’t know when .. but i knew it’d happen ....

Its his crap talking before the game ... this kid can’t throw worth a damm ... he SUCKS when he has to throw ... he is one hell of a runner though ..

Anyhow ... his punk ass ... GAURANTEED a DOMINANT VICTORY ....

His punk ass was out of the game before half time ..*L* ...

U said on the OSU thread that U didn’t rub things in my face ... and thats not what your doing here ... I know that ... when i read it .. i *LOL* .... u can’t rub it in my face ... I know who ND is and have zero expectations for them ... we’ll win 9 games a year once every decade or so .. other than that about the best we can hope for is 8 wins and a decent bowl game ... were also going to mix in 4 or 5 win seasons ...

8 wins is about as good as we can achieve .. we simply can’t recruit the elite atheletes ... it been that way since the mid 90’s .... thats clearly evident tonight ... we simply don’t have the atheletes to compete with schools like Miami and the SEC schools and the OSU’s of the worlds ...

We can’t recruit the elite guys for a few factors ...

- a big portion of the elite guys don’t have the grades to get in ...

- our kids will go to class and they will be real classes ... our kids won’t be pampered .... ND is very challenging academically for a football player ... kids today don’t want to work that hard ...

When Meyer chose Florida over ND (his dream job)when he left Utah ... one of the keys was Lou Holtz (no one loves ND more than him) ..

Lou told Meyer if u want to win go to Fla. ... its almost impossible to win at ND anymore ... that mad me very very sad but i also knew it was true ...

My g/f asked me tonight before kick off if i was excited ... i said ... no, not really anything to get excited about ... if we win i’ll be happy as hell and excited then ... when your an ND and Browns fan u best not get your hopes up to high ...

Its been a rough 20 years for me ... *L* ...

My guess is we win next week then get beat by the trees .... we’ll be 8 -3 and go to a decent bowl ... thats a very good season for us ... about as good as any realistic ND fan can expect ....

I won't deny that I was paying you back. But bro, I haven't rubbed it your face for years and I could have. We lose a big game and you absolutely trashed us. You can't say you didn't deserve this.

*L* .... sometimes your really incredible ... seriously ....

I knew we’d get beat at some point ...

U can’t rub it in my face .... i know who we are ...

This has been and will end up a very good year for us ..

Let me guess .. i was lying when i said that ... ...

Sometimes u can be so arrogant ...

I’m out ... no need for me to post since u know how i feel better than i do ... *L* ...

What? You trashed Ohio State after years of me not trashing ND.

Is that a lie?

And then when ND loses big, you don't expect me to trash ND? Seriously?

And what is up w/the arrogant comment?

I think that argument was pretty much settled today.

Seriously, I knew some teams would lose (some had to) before the final polls... and the conversation between 1 and 2 loss teams would need to be had. The really bizarre part isn't that teams lost, it's the way OSU, Notre Dame, Georgia... didn't just all lose, they all got their butts handed to them... Really makes things a little harder to figure out.

As of now, if it ended today... I think it's Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin/Clemson... but I have such a lack of conviction to that. There are a lot of 2 loss teams that can now see the light at the end of the tunnel..

well, ND, TCU and Washington are DONE ... Georgia might be too

it's shaping up like Alabama, Clemson, Miami, Oklahoma .. then Wisconsin and Auburn

OSU has a legit shot now ... albeit small:

- beat Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship
- have Oklahoma win convincingly in the Big 12 Championship
- have Miami beat Clemson in the ACC Championship
- have Alabama win the SEC Championship

1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Miami
4. Ohio State

What do you think the committee would do if Wisconsin goes into the Big Ten Championship game undefeated and plays a 2 loss Ohio State or 2 loss Penn State and loses in a close game.

The reason I ask is last year a 1 loss non champion Ohio State got in in front of a 2 loss conference champion that beat them head to head. Same scenario here if your above scenario plays out. Might need USC to loss to either UCLA or in the PAC 10 Championship game to ensure the above scenario. Right now USC is ranked ahead of Ohio State/Penn State.

Does a 1 loss Wisconsin still get in?

Does a 2 loss Ohio State/Penn State get in?

To me, as long as there are 1 loss teams, no 2 loss team should get in.

Wisconsin has to win out and win the BIG ten title game to get in IMO

Tough game diam... My ND fan texted me basically the same things yu said before the game... He was concerned with your QBs accuracy.... I did find it interesting how his mechanics seemed to go late in the second half... I think y'all could win out... Stanford has been inconsistent this year... Similar to how I feel about OSU currently... Don't know which offense is going to show up....

yeah OSU is so bipolar, and I'm not sure why ... there seems to be no variable or explanation

If Ohio State wins out, they would almost certainly be ranked above Wisconsin in the final playoff rankings. Whether it would be enough to get in the top 4... we'll see what happens.

There's more to things than just 2 loss champion vs 1 loss non-champion from the same conference. There are many other factors that go into it such as strength of schedule, with quality victories being a key metric. This favors the Buckeyes this year and did so even more last year.

In 2016, the Buckeyes had wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which finished in the top 8 of the final CFP rankings. That is unheard of. They also had a 62-3 drubbing of Nebraska who I recall was a top 10 team at the time although kind of fell apart after that game. That's a ridiculously strong resume. Penn State had the Big Ten championship (including wins over OSU and Wisconsin), but also lost to Pittsburgh (!) and got crushed by Michigan. All of that factors in.

In this hypothetical 2017 season, where the Buckeyes win out they would have wins over Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The conference isn't as strong as last year but it would still be quite an impressive resume. Wisconsin's best wins would be over Michigan and Iowa.

Also I have to think that a head to head matchup in the conference championship will be treated with more weight than a typical regular season game, both due to the game's prominence as well as the recency bias. That is to say that games played later in the season tend to have more weight. In this way, the Buckeyes can all but keep Michigan up north for the playoffs by continuing to beat them every year. Doing it earlier in the year just wouldn't have the same effect.

They would not be able to leapfrog

Oklahoma
Alabama
Auburn
Miami
TCU
One loss ND

My thing is, even if this season is one that allows a 2-loss team into the playoff, what makes Ohio State the best of those teams? I have a hard time saying Ohio State should be that team, when they have an embarrassingly bad loss at Iowa, where they allowed one of Kirk Ferentz' teams to drop 56. They can't regularly put 50 on a MAC opponent...

People said the same of the 2014 Buckeyes and that "bad" loss against Virginia Tech. They make it like VT was a garbage team, and that the game was a blowout because they won by 2 touchdowns (nevermind that Ohio State had a chance to tie the game inside a minute)

That Virginia Tech team was pretty good, and it was also a lot of guys on that team's first home game. It was early on, and Ohio State proved to be the best team that year.

I just don't see it this year. They're talented, no doubt. I just think there are probably better 2-loss teams out there this year, who didn't get drubbed at Iowa.

ND has two losses, but there's no way OSU gets in with the way they were demolished in their 2 losses.

In this hypothetical where OSU wins out, the Buckeyes would be a two loss team with wins over Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'd also have the conference championship coming out of the Big Ten East, as well as the head to head tie-breakers over all those teams.

What other two loss team would be able to match that resume? Notre Dame just lost by 33 (albeit to Miami) and have wins over Michigan State and USC. Wins over Navy and Stanford aren't going to get it done. They're out.

Pac-12 is weak. Doubt you can make much of a case to take a 2 loss USC, Washington, or Wash St. over 2 loss Ohio State that has four good wins.

The Big 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. I can all but guarantee that. Oklahoma winning out would seem to be good for the Buckeyes as that would completely eliminate the rest of the Big 12 competition and at least make one of the Buckeyes losses palatable. That really leaves the possibility of the SEC and/or ACC sending two teams-- either of which could conceivably happen, depending on how things shake out.

I'm actually inclined to say that if the Buckeyes win out, they have about a 50/50 shot at cracking the top four. Hard to believe but it's just not a very top heavy year...

1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State

... or similar is realistic.

Ten years ago, 2 loss LSU got into the BCS championship game (against Ohio State) and that was a top two scenario.

One loss ND is actually two loss ND and is effectively already out.

One of Oklahoma and TCU will eliminate each other. Big 12 could conceivably be shut out altogether if Oklahoma loses another game.

One of Auburn and Alabama will likely eliminate each other. Auburn obviously can't lose. If Auburn beats Alabama before the SEC championship game, Alabama will be in a similar situation as the 2015 Buckeyes where everybody knew they were one of the best teams, but didn't have much of a resume and couldn't make up for it in the conference championship game, which they missed out on playing due to the head to head tiebreaker.

Alabama with only 1 loss will not get passed by a two loss team. They have got credit all year for beating Florida State when Florida State had their Heisman trophy candidate QB healthy and playing. No other team that beat Florida State had to face that QB. I agree if there were four 1 loss champions then an Alabama that lost before the SEC Championship game would be left out. But, that is not the case this year.

Watching the games yesterday their trip to Auburn in two weeks will be no picnic.

As far as the SEC goes, the best thing for Ohio State would be for Alabama to just win out. Well it would be the best thing to the extent of getting into the playoffs anyway.

Let's say that Ohio State, Alabama, and Oklahoma all win out. That's a lot of ifs, and things probably won't be so clear cut as there's usually some chaos but I don't think it's all that unlikely either. Alabama and Oklahoma would obviously be in in this scenario, as will the ACC champion.

Who is the 4th team?

It probably has a lot to do with what happens in the ACC. Would the Buckeyes get in over the ACC runner up? Hard to say, but probably yes if it's 2 loss Clemson but maybe not if it's 1 loss Miami.

Who else could you fit in the 4th slot? Given the parameters, I don't think it would be any of the following:

- Wisconsin
- Pac 12 champ
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- UCF

Who's left?

Also, it's not even clear that Oklahoma winning out would be good for Ohio State's chances. If nothing else, it simplifies things. If Oklahoma loses at some point, we may be left comparing the merits of a 2 loss conference non-champion that convincingly beat a 2 loss champion from a stronger conference with varying pros and cons depending on what you focus on. How do you sort that out? Well for most, I'm sure it will come down to which team we root for.

No, and No... right now the bigger question is.. does a 0 loss Wisconsin team get in...

For me personally, I could not exclude an undefeated power 5 conference championship team from the final 4... but with the way these things work, I could see 1 loss teams being ahead of Wisconsin because of strength of schedule.

This would spark outrage, cue the "this is why need 8 teams" debate... even though if we had 8 teams, a lot of this fun speculation wouldn't be happening right now.. the whole conversation would be about which 2 loss teams deserved to be in... which is why I'm opposed to an 8 team playoff.

I expect tomorrow to look like:

1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Clemson

5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. Ohio State
9. Oklahoma State
10. Penn State

So between 1 Alabama and 5 Auburn, they could potentially knock one out of the race in the Iron Bowl (I get that Alabama could be like Ohio State last year and make it without playing in conf title game, but do they really have the wins that OSU did last year?)

2 Miami and 4 Clemson, one will cancel the other out.

If Wisconsin loses the B1G title game, they're out.

I mean I guess it's reasonable if you're Ohio State, I just don't see it, but they could really make it interesting.

I think it's safe to say that the SEC and ACC winners are near locks to have a representative in the title game.

Independent Notre Dame is likely out of this thing.

The Big Ten and Big Twelve are the most interesting situations.

I think Wisconsin is in if they finish out their schedule and beat Ohio State, Penn State, or even Michigan in the title game. I know they don't have a ton of quality wins, but unblemished in a power 5 conference, with a quality win in the title game? They committee won't leave them out.

Now if Ohio State were to win, or what if they demolished them like 2014?

You could have spots 1-3 taken up by the SEC champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma. With the final spot between a potential Ohio State B1G champ, potential 1-loss Alabama. It really isn't that crazy if you think about it, but deep down, I still have that Iowa loss in my head. I made similar arguments last year about Penn State, having 2 losses, and in one of those, they were humiliated at Michigan (with a fluke win over Ohio State, pretty funny how both PSU last year, and OSU this year have very similar situations)

This is easily going to be the committee's toughest job in the four seasons they've had to pick these teams.

And there are still two weeks of potential craziness coming.

The only thing I would add to that is a 1-loss Miami team.. If Clemson beats Miami in the ACC championship game in a close game... Clemson gets in for sure, then Miami with very convincing wins over VaTech (13) and ND (3) late in the season.. What would really hurt Miami this year is how bad Florida State was, they could have used one more quality win to try to make that case.

But I think you are right, the way it is shaping up, 3 of the spots are likely to be no-brainers.. then 2 or 3 teams trying to lay claim to that 4th spot.

Of course I had all my predictions lined out last week and ... well then they played football.. and it turned out I was wrong.

You're not wrong, they would easily be in the mix.

Ohio State fans may want to root for Alabama and Miami to just win out.

That would bring Clemson back in to contention with the other 2-loss teams, and would knock Auburn out of it completely. Little more wiggle room arguing against 2 loss Clemson, than a 1-loss Miami especially if like you said, the ACC title game is a close one.

So if those two scenarios play out, Alabama going undefeated, as well as Miami...

you have a clear 1 and 2 seed, no arguments needed there. You can flip flop them, or whatever, but nobody is arguing those aren't the two most deserving teams.

3 is probably decided on Oklahoma and if they win the Big 12. Let's say they do.

The 4th spot would be coveted by:

Clemson (2 losses)
Georgia (2 losses)
Ohio State (2 losses)
USC (2 losses)
Notre Dame (2 losses)
Wisconsin (1 loss)

All hypothetical, obviously. But man, good look committee! LOL

I just don't see it. None of the other 2 loss teams were absolutely throttled by a team that has a losing conference record...especially this late in the season. I'm an OSU homer, but I'd be embarassed if we were selected for the playoff this year.

I don't think there is any way we get in, but I would not be embarrassed if we did. LOL

I agree. I don't see how OSU get a title bid. Not sure how the bids go.....OSU if they win the 10 title gets a Sugar Bowl bid against probably Georgia, the SEC runner-up. If they lose, maybe Outback Bowl against Auburn?


Again, I don't know the bowl pecking order this year.



But, Wisconsin can still lose a game this year. So can any team. In a way, it's why I don't like these championship games. Opens it up for too much BS.

If we win B1G we'll play the Pac 12 winner.

I would definitely bank on a USC/Ohio State Rose Bowl if there is no playoff for the Bucks.

If Wisconsin wins out then they will obviously be in the playoffs.

I still say that if Ohio State wins out (which necessarily means that Wisconsin would have at least one loss, and without the strength of victory of the 2016 Buckeyes, or this season's Buckeyes for that matter), Ohio State will most likely be in-- somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3 chance if I had to attach a probability to it. The general format would go something like this:

1. SEC Champion
2. ACC Champion
3. Big 12 Champion
4. Big Ten Champion (in this case, Ohio State)

Ohio State would have a better resume than any Pac-12 team could possibly have. Ohio State is ahead of Notre Dame in the AP and coaches polls right now, and has the opportunity to add two more quality wins as well as a Big Ten championship along the way. Other competition would be various two loss non-champions (not going to happen) or one loss non-champions (if it ends up being Alabama or Miami, that would not be good for the Buckeyes.)

You could flip this around and say that none of the other 2 loss teams would have a power 5 conference championship (with the Big Ten East being a particularly respected division) along with victories over potentially four teams that finish the season ranked.

Being a two loss team with a terrible loss to Iowa does not look good, but then we're speculating that the Buckeyes would lose their spot to two loss teams who were non-champions with weaker schedules. That won't happen.

The more interesting scenarios are comparing potential one-loss non champions (of which there is no guarantee there will even be any left) vs a two loss Ohio State with otherwise strong credentials-- conference championship coming out of the Big Ten East and beating Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin along the way.

A one loss non-champion will not necessarily get in over a two loss champion. That the Buckeyes did it last year does not set the precedent that some think it does, as the Buckeyes had three wins over teams that finished in the top 8 of the final college playoff rankings. For those who are more cynical, Ohio State is also an enormous television draw. In any case, both of those potential factors favored Ohio State last year and they do again this year.

Of course this assumes that the Buckeyes actually win out which obviously may well not happen. It's interesting to think about the scenarios though.

I don't care what's on the plus side, if you get your arse handed to you twice in one season like we did, you shouldn't be in the playoff. We got absolutely demolished by a less than mediocre team late in the season.

I've gotta second this.

In my wildest imagination, I can't imagine Alabama losing to a Missouri or Arkansas.

Luckily for the Buckeyes, the playoff committee cares very much about the plus side. This has even favored Ohio State in the past, from the 59-0 demolition of Wisconsin in the 2014 Big Ten championship game, to the three very high-quality wins in 2016 against teams that finished in the top 8 of the playoff rankings.

The reality is that if the Buckeyes win out, there probably won't be 4 deserving teams! Yet, the committee has to send 4 teams anyway. So they will go through and match the relative merits of each teams, and many scenarios will mean that the Buckeyes get in after all, no matter how unreasonable that may seem right now with two losses, including that really bad loss at Iowa.

All you have to do is go through the scenarios laid out above and you will see that the Buckeyes are right in the thick of things, because two loss Big Ten champion with 4 wins over ranked opponents is still a better resume than any of the other two loss non-champions with perhaps 1-2 wins over ranked opponents.

https://www.landof10.com/ohio-state/ohio...big-ten-week-12

Ohio State has chaos-free path to College Football Playoff after latest rankings

COLUMBUS, Ohio — There’s surely no such thing as too much chaos in this gloriously imperfect sport, and Ohio State isn’t going to complain if there’s a little more.

But it’s possible the Buckeyes may have already received all the outside help it needs to get back into the College Football Playoff based on the rankings released Tuesday night. And maybe what it should want now is some normalcy.

There is absolutely no guarantee at this point that Ohio State can simply win out and be assured of a spot in the four-team field. Even as it bounced back up to No. 9 after demolishing Michigan State on Saturday and moving well within striking distance of the top four slots, the blowout on the road at Iowa and the head-to-head tiebreaker it lost to Oklahoma obviously complicate matters for the Buckeyes.

But the latter is one reason why they may need chalk to prevail down the stretch. The Big 12 is likely going to claim one of those spots in the field, and it’s in Ohio State’s best interest for the Sooners to lock it up so there’s no need for a debate between those two programs.

Similarly, while Georgia losing in lopsided fashion at Auburn was important in dramatically decreasing the likelihood of the SEC getting two places on the dance card, the Buckeyes probably would be better off with Alabama finishing unbeaten to remove any possibility for good.

And, again along those same lines, the ACC is solidly in position to have another representative in the playoff this season. There may be some room to debate whether the preference should be given to Clemson or Miami, but either way, Ohio State probably would benefit from one of them rolling down the stretch and posting large margins of victory — especially in the league title game.

That would leave the coveted fourth and final spot up for grabs. And considering that there are a couple guaranteed losses by a couple teams ahead of them and the possibility of beating No. 5 Wisconsin, the Buckeyes are perhaps in even better shape than the rankings suggest. Ohio State, obviously, only needs there to be one available spot, and the overall body of work with a Big Ten Championship on the résumé is quite possibly going to be appealing enough to grab it.

In fact, it would qualify as a bigger shock if the selection committee left out the champion of the league it has evaluated to be the strongest in the country, according to its own poll, than any surprise over inviting a two-loss team. Don’t get caught up in the fact that it hasn’t happened yet with such a small sample size, because a conference champ with a couple losses earning a bid is an inevitability in the playoff era and the Buckeyes have all the relevant criteria needed for it to be them.

The alternative, of course, is that mass hysteria breaks out over the next couple weeks and what appears to be a relatively narrow path at the moment suddenly busts wide open. What if everybody ahead of Ohio State starts losing and the Buckeyes destroy Illinois, handles rival Michigan in The Game and then raises a Big Ten trophy the following week against Wisconsin? Sure, there wouldn’t be much debate about the Buckeyes heading to the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

Either way, the usual caveat for Urban Meyer’s team applies just like it has the last two weeks: None of this matters if it doesn’t win out.

But with that out of the way, the Buckeyes may have actually seen all the upsets they need just one week after their playoff hopes were dangling by a thread.

A little bit of calm settling in around the nation really might not be such a bad thing for Ohio State, after all.

So just looking ahead..

1 Alabama has a gimme this weekend (Mercer) and the Iron Bowl, and the Iron Bowl is at Auburn and I think they could easily lose that game.

2 Clemson has a gimme this weekend (Citadel), as well as their rivalry game with South Carolina, and a confirmed date with Miami in the ACC title game.

3 Miami has Virginia, at Pitt, and the aforementioned ACC title game against Clemson

4 Oklahoma has at Kansas, West Virginia, and a likely date in the Big 12 Championship game against TCU or Oklahoma State

5 Wisconsin has Michigan, at Minnesota, and a confirmed date against what could be a few teams in the Big Ten Title game.

6 Auburn has Louisiana-Monroe, Alabama

7 Georgia has Kentucky, at Georgia Tech, and a confirmed spot in the SEC title game

8 Notre Dame has Navy, and at Stanford (not having a conference title game will really hurt the Irish)

9 Ohio State has Illinois, at Michigan

10 Penn State has Nebraska and Maryland. I believe their only hope would be for a 3-way tie in the B1G East, which their overall record would send them to the Big Ten title game.

Ohio State's only chance at this thing is for Alabama and Miami to win out. Oklahoma crapping itself either on their way, or in the Big 12 Championship game could certainly help.

They also need Wisconsin to win out, and look as great as possible. Wisconsin still has Michigan and a rivalry game with Minnesota so that is no guarantee.

If Ohio State wins out, Clemson loses the ACC title game, Georgia loses the SEC title game, and Notre Dame wins out you have some interesting conversations coming.

Ohio State
Clemson
Georgia
Notre Dame

All with 2 losses. And throw in a 1-loss Wisconsin in that scenario, if they lose a close game with Ohio State in the B1G, they may as well throw their hat in that conversation.

Also, I was wrong about the B1G winner playing in the Rose Bowl game if not in the playoff. The Rose Bowl is actually one of the playoff games this year.

ESPN is projecting a Notre Dame-Ohio State Cotton bowl if neither team is involved in the playoff.

I think the easiest situation for the committee would be Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma winning out, with Miami getting the 4th spot with their only loss being to Clemson in the title game.

Disclaimer: Ohio State has to win out for this analysis to matter

With that out of the way, the worst case scenario for the Buckeyes playoff chances is for Alabama to beat Auburn and then lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Alabama would likely still be ahead of Ohio State in that scenario, and obviously Georgia would be in, probably as the 1 or 2 seed.

If Alabama loses to Auburn and doesn't even play in the SEC Championship-- well, that's too bad, and they're probably out. Or at least behind the Buckeyes and need a lot of help.

Most other scenarios where Ohio State, other than the one where Alabama loses in the SEC Championship, would involve a two loss Buckeyes team getting in the playoffs or at least having a very strong case.

To recap what some of the other teams have to do, or can afford not to do:

Auburn is, IMO, the only two loss team that controls its own destiny or at least very close. This is because if they win out, they'd have the SEC Championship as well as obscene late season strength of victory with wins over Georgia, Alabama, and Georgia again.

Oklahoma is in if they win out. If they lose a game and then win the Big 12 championship with 2 losses, things could get complicated.

Clemson and Georgia: Win out and they're in. Lose and they're out, barring major chaos, but a two loss non-champion is not going to get in over a two loss champion from the Big Ten, which is rated as the strongest conference in the country by the committee's own poll!

Not only that, but Ohio State plays in the stronger of the two divisions (and played the next three strongest teams of said division), had Oklahoma as an out of conference opponent, and would play Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in this scenario. That's five big games, of which Ohio State would have won four. No other two loss team can match that resume except for Auburn in the case that they pull out a late season miracle. Not Georgia, not Clemson, not Notre Dame, not MSU, PSU, UM, and not even any Pac-12 team or Big-12 teams for that matter (except possibly Oklahoma if they lose a game; they would have the head to head tiebreaker over Ohio State.)

The main complications come down to sorting out teams with the same number of losses and similar accomplishments, or two loss teams with better accomplishments vs 1 loss teams with less.

So in that spirit, here is how I see things potentially shaking out between our hypothetical two loss Big Ten champion Buckeyes, and various 1 loss teams (keeping in mind that A LOT can happen, differential of victory and style points matter, etc.)

Alabama beats Auburn, but loses to Georgia in the SEC championship: Alabama probably finishes ahead of Ohio State

Alabama loses to Auburn, doesn't play in SEC Chamionship: Alabama is probably out of luck, or at least needs some chaos along the way [edit: rereading my post, this might be one of the more debatable scenarios. I might lean toward calling this a toss-up.]

Miami loses to Clemson: toss-up between Miami and Ohio State

Wisconsin beats Michigan, Minnesota, loses to Ohio State in conference title game: Ohio State likely finishes ahead due to the league championship, head to head win in the title game, and significantly stronger schedule and strength of victory. I think that pushes them over Wisconsin, despite the protests of having only one loss and the essentially opposite performances vs Iowa.

USC or other 2 loss Pac-12 champion: Already behind Ohio State in the rankings right now, cannot add the strength of victory that Ohio State can with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin, along with the Big Ten championship (Pac 12 championship is nice but it is really them that needs Ohio State to fumble along the way and not the other way around.)

Who am I missing? The only two loss non conference champion that would have a reasonable argument over Ohio State would be Oklahoma in the case that they lose a game but then convincingly win the Big 12 championship. Like I said, there are a lot of possible scenarios.

Not really all that interesting. Well it's interesting for Ohio State fans but not for us who like to think out possible scenarios because it's actually pretty simple. What would happen in this scenario is the SEC Champion (Auburn or Alabama-- Alabama in your scenario), Miami, and Ohio State would be in (plus another team that would likely be the 3rd seed, probably Oklahoma). Clemson and Georgia as two loss non-champions with worse resumes than Ohio State would be out, as would Notre Dame.

About Notre Dame: They are 8th right now, and Ohio State is 9th (this order is reversed in the coaches and AP polls for whatever that is worth, probably not much.)

Notre Dame can add wins over Navy and #20 Stanford. Ohio State can add wins over Illinois, #19 Michigan, and #5 Wisconsin, as well as a Big Ten championship which would be considered the strongest league title based on the committee's own poll. To me, it only seems like common sense that if Ohio State wins out, they would easily jump Notre Dame, but maybe we can get somebody who is not a Buckeyes or Irish fan to weigh in on this.


I think that's actually somewhat of a nightmare scenario for the committee. It's a very difficult decision with no precedent. As I've written a few times in this thread, last year's 1 loss non-champion Buckeyes were unique because they had 3 wins against teams that finished in the top 8 of the rankings. You cannot extrapolate that to future seasons where that level of strength of victory does not exist (to the extent that it does, it would again favor Ohio State.)

Wouldn't it seem odd to you that the committee would pick two teams from the ACC, including the runner up, over the champion of the conference which the committee's own poll considers the strongest? The more I think about it, the more I think that Ohio State would barely get in if that scenario came up. It's hard to say though because we lack a large sample size and much of this is subjective-- how teams look along the way.