DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Kizer rnd. 4

You could say that about almost every game we lost this season.

Kizer is a spoiled version of Brandon Weeden...

The WR's have had a 'second' shot.. another year under their belt, and no significant improvement.. I'm officially done with Higgins, Louis, and Britt too.

I'm disappointed in Kizer so far. I mean he hasn't showed us in 10 games anything to look forward too. Ie Brady Quinns Detroit game where he threw for 300+ and 4 TD's. I won't close the book on Kizer yet, as he is a rookie with no above average WR to bail him out of situations, but the Browns have no choice but to draft a QB in the 1st.

tab, did you get a chance to watch Rosen against USC the other night? I think the guy is very, very impressive.

Yeah, I like him a lot!

There is a thread about him in the Tailgate forum. bonefish started it and you know that bonefish knows his qbs.

Here are some of the things I like about Rosen:

--Good size at 6'4" and strong arm.

--Very, very accurate. Throws the ball where guys can get YAC.

--Stands in there in the face of the rush and still throws accurately.

--Extremely intelligent.

--Plays in a pro-style offense, thus you can see him go through his reads and progressions. As you probably know, I have been saying for a long time that it's hard to evaluate a lot of college qbs because they play in Spread offenses and aren't asked to make a lot of reads. Well, you can see this guy look the coverage off and go through his progressions.

Yeah, he plays for UCLA and I think you should check him out. I went into that game thinking that Darnold was the superior qb, but Rosen blew me away. I'm very excited about this kid.

A couple of notes: UCLA sucks. They don't have much around him. They also just fired Mora after that game. I wonder how that will affect Rosen and the team?

The Giants won yesterday, so that's two wins. SF has 1. We really might get the number 1 pick again. I want to see more, but man, I think Rosen is the guy!

Back-to-back drafts w/Myles and Rosen sounds good. Dominant edge rusher and franchise qb!

I don't think I've ever seen you get excited about any player. This is different, lol.

I saw Rosen play against USC and was impressed by what I saw. If we get the #1 pick he's the guy IMO. I'd like the RB from Penn State too. It solves 2 big problems if we take these two. Crow is average at best IMO. In the 2nd round with our 3 picks we can draft our WR and CB positions depending on what we do in FA. Thoughts anyone?

We go against the best pass D in the league and we throw 66% of the times...

Yes,blame it on Kizer...

Non the less, We need to draft a QB with our #1, and hire a new HC in the process..

I honestly start to think that Hue is worst than Kizer

I agree. Watching Rosen & Darnold was eye opening. Rosen is the guy I want first pick in the draft, no dicking around, just do it.

I think the firing of Mora is a positive for Rosen coming out. Chip Kelly seems to be a potential replacement and I doubt Rosen will want to stick around for that offense scheme should they hire Chippy.

I think it is clear that we (The Board) have narrowed our choices.... I think it will be interesting and good to track these two over the next three months.

By the time we get done with North/South Game and Senior Bowls, I think the book should be written well enough that individual workouts and Combine stuff shouldn't matter for these two.

Gotta go with Sam, Rosen will snap like a twig in the AFC north. Sam is the Man!!!

I've pimped a few guys.

Joe Thomas was the first. We had some good debates on whether to draft him, AD, or BQ.

Teddy Bridgewater was the next. LOL...that was kinda crazy. He played in a pro-style offense and I saw him make reads and go through his progressions.

I was adamant about drafting Myles last year.

I have a hard time getting overly excited about QBs who have played in the Spread or similar offenses. It's not that I am saying they can't make post-snap reads or go through their progressions quickly enough, but it's hard for me to go ga-ga over a guy who hasn't done it.

I am pretty excited about Rosen. Kinda like I was last year w/Garopollo when I thought we had a chance to trade for him.

It's exciting just to think about having a freak edge rusher and a true franchise type qb in back-to-back drafts. These guys could really turn this franchise around. Think about that. It's tremendously exciting!!!

I'll be calling Sashi a genius if he pulls it off.

I have to watch more film on all the QB's, but I'll try to share my thoughts about the QB's in the tailgate forum.

Do you have the link to the site that has all the QB throws? I can't find it.

I am for Darnold, I can't get the Penn State Bowl game out of my mind.

I think Darnold has less uncertainty, and will be able to better handle the rough start that will be Cleveland.

Only thing I heard or read was that Rosen is very outspoken and can ruffle feathers ... he doesn't tow the line and that certainly might be a problem in a situation like the Browns.

I'm still of the mind you offer the world to Cousins or a little less to Alex Smith.

Maybe, maybe not. I'd have to look at the play again. You see much the same reaction out of players when the QB misses them, or doesn't throw in his way at all when wide open.


I seem to recall that might have been a catchable pass.....just saying.

That game was amazing. He looked like he had all the tools and would be unstoppable. He hasn't looked that way when I've watched him this year. Don't know if it's the loss of personnel or something else, but he hasn't looked the same.

I don't. I normally just youtube the qbs name and their opponent and start there.

Draft Breakdown.

http://draftbreakdown.com/

there is a $2 a month charge but you can't beat seeing only the snaps from the prospects you want to check out.

I'm not going to go out on a limb yet and pick a favorite QB until I start watching more film in the offseason.

I will say that if all the Qb's actually come out this year, there are as many as 6 that should be in the conversation and that is unusual for any draft.

The last time I remember that many good QB prospects in a draft was back when we drafted Couch.

Thanks, bonefish

After rewatching Deshone's reps on GamePass, I don't feel nearly as down on him as I did during and immediately following the game. I still don't feel great, but he didn't get much help.

Our receivers are not very good at coming back and attacking the ball with their hands nor good at uncovering during "scramble drills." For as good as Duke is catching the ball down the field, he doesn't seem to have a great feel in the screen game (at least in this game, had one stumble/trip that made the screen impossible and another where the DL read it well and DeShone tried to lead him back inside but Duke kept running along with the defender)

I'd like to see more of Njoku out wide, as we don't really have any other 50/50 ball type receivers, and I think that would mitigate his protection scheme issues. (Though I think missing one CB blitz pickup on a play designed to have him running a route is a bit overblown, doubt he'd seen that look combined with that play call before)

I wonder about the playcalling as well. The quick passing game seemed much more effective, but we seemed to run a lot more deep patterns/slow developing plays that never worked due to either too much pressure or simply no one getting open. Kizer did have the pretty bad pick to 50, but at this point I think trying to get him to learn from it would have worked better than largely avoiding those playcalls when the defense seemed to be scheming to take away the big plays down the field.

The chemistry between Kizer and the WRs still doesn't look good. The "low" pass to Higgins looked upon review that Kizer was trying to avoid leading him into Myles Jack who was waiting to thump him. Coleman and Kizer just looked a little out of sync on some plays (mainly to the left?). Louis just looked bad.

I'm still not sure about the forward progress on the Britt catch (i,e. where he actually controlled it), but it looked like the DB should have been flagged for getting there early regardless.

I don't want to make excuses for Kizer - but that's the leagues best pass D and our WR's are junk and it was the worst conditions to be playing in. . . . There are 6 more games to evaluate him on and with Coleman coming back it helps. If JG comes back it may help.... I'm not giving up on Kizer yet. But he sure does have to prove something and take some big steps forward.

I don't want to make excuses for Kizer either.

We all know that the QB probably gets more credit overall for the wins and way to much hate for the losses. That's kind of a given.

I've done this comparison before and it was met with boos. LOL (wish it was Booze, but you take what you get)

Different teams, I think better talent around him but, in the end, Elways first year wasn't a harbinger of the future at all.

Elway:
Started 10 games
47.5 Completion %
7 TD's
14 INT's

Record: 4/6


Kizer:
Started 9 games
52.5 Completion %
1551 yards passing
5 TD's
14 INT's

Record, really, please don't make me write it down.

IS that all Kizer? I think not. Too many drops. Seriously, outside of Coleman (when he's not hurt) and Duke Johnson who's really been reliable.

Outside of one game, we've had an insignificant running game and frankly, Sammy Winder for Denver that year wasn't much better.

Steve Watson, WR for Denver that year had 1133 years receiving. We'll have nobody near that for the whole year let alone 10 games in. Pretty much a bright spot.

I'm NOT saying that Kizer is the next Elway. That would be idiotic. Thems big shoes to fill.

But improvement could happen. Kizer has the physical tools. Needs lots of work.

So, no, i'm not ready to throw him to the wolves. But I'm in no way ready to name him the second coming of Otto Graham or Bernie Kosar.

Just thought I'd throw that out there to give things a little perspective.

Again, I know it doesn't really mean a thing.

I don't know how that breaks down in yards receiving, but dang, I bet it's a lot.

Time Warp from Rocky Horror Picture Show just popped into my head.

Does DeShone Kizer Give Cleveland the Best Chance at Avoiding a Winless Season?

Error loading player: No playable sources found
After benching DeShone Kizer during a game earlier this season as well as being demoting him to third string for another, Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson has decided to let his rookie quarterback remain as his starter for the rest of 2017.

Jackson was firm in his call to keep wheeling out Kizer "as long as he's healthy" for what remains of another lost season for the Browns, meaning that backups Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler will have to wait for the 2018 training camp to compete against Kizer and any quarterback the team may draft in the early rounds.

But does this move give the team the best chance to win a game in 2017?

A Rocky Start

Kizer's nine NFL games have so far brought him 1,555 passing yards for just 5 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, with the latter figure leading the NFL. But these numbers don't tell the full story.

To do that, we'll use Net Expected Points (NEP). This is our metric that tracks the expected points added on each play throughout the season for both teams and players -- with the team totals being adjusted for strength of opponent. NEP gives us the context to know that a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 is much more valuable than that same completion on 3rd and 4. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

While the acquisitions the team made in the offseason indicated the Browns wanted to becoming a running team -- or at least an offense built around a good offensive line -- the constant negative game scripts that have confronted them during their 0-10 start has meant that they have had to lean heavily on the passing game. As a result, the Browns are passing on 63.33% of their plays, the fifth-highest mark in the league.

That's put a lot of burden on Kizer, and he hasn't held up to it.

Among the 23 quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 300 times in 2017, Kizer ranks dead last in Passing NEP per drop back with a clip of -0.24. That means Kizer is costing Cleveland -0.24 expected points every time he drops back to pass. Not good.

For reference, the league average this season is 0.11, and the league average in 2016 was 0.12. In fact, among quarterbacks with at least 300 drop backs in a campaign, Kizer's -0.24 Passing NEP per drop back is on pace to be the seventh-worst single-season mark in our database, which goes back to 2000.

"Ah yes, but he's just a rookie," you may be thinking.

Well, a study done a few years back by our JJ Zachariason showed that a quarterback's first season mattered a great deal when trying to predict how the rest of his career would go, and Kizer's Passing NEP per drop back places him in a tier with other first-year passers such as David Carr, Jimmy Clausen and Andrew Walter. That's not a good place to be, although, to be fair, Kyle Orton's and Jared Goff's rookie-year numbers put them in that bad tier, as well.

In concert with Passing NEP per drop back, we can also to take into account a quarterback's Passing Success Rate, or the percentage of drop backs which positively impact NEP. Kizer's 34.98% Success Rate is again last among all quarterbacks with at least 300 drop backs in 2017 (the league average last year was 47.02%). Among passers with at least 300 drop backs in a year since 2000, Kizer's Success Rate is tracking as the fourth-worst.

All that was a very numbers-driven way to say Kizer has been really, really bad this season, and his future -- based on the history of first-year quarterback performance -- looks bleak.

How About His Competition?

Kizer has been nothing short of a historic flop for the Browns so far. But are the other options at Cleveland's disposal -- Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler -- any better?

Going by raw stats, Kessler actually led the Browns in passing in 2016 with 1,380 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Hogan attempted just 26 passes as a rookie and saw 2 of them intercepted, but we can't pull anything meaningful from a sample size of 28 drop backs (which also include sacks). So let's focus on Kessler, who has enough playing time to make some real observations about his numbers.

Let's see what tale NEP can tell us about his rookie season.

Player Drop Backs Passing NEP Per Drop Back Passing Success Rate
Cody Kessler 216 0.14 45.37%

Not only did Kessler put up way better numbers than what Kizer currently is, he was actually an above-average passer last year in regards to the rest of the league. Kessler's Passing NEP per drop back of 0.14 was a touch better than the league average of 0.12. His 45.37% Success Rate wasn't too far off the league average (47.02%).

Both Hogan and Kessler have seen a little action this season, and neither set the world aflame -- granted the sample size is pretty small.

Player Drop Backs Passing NEP Per Drop Back Passing Success Rate
Cody Kessler 27 -0.35 33.33%
Kevin Hogan 81 -0.15 41.98%

Given Kessler's 2016 form, he would make the most sense for the Browns for the rest of the season if their goal is to avoid going 0-16. On the other hand, if Jackson wants to give Kizer every chance to get going -- and possibly a better chance to succeed with Corey Coleman back in the fold -- there's an argument to be made for continuing to start Kizer.

Looking Forward

Only one team has gone 0-16 since the adoption of a 16-game schedule, and at 0-10, the Browns are in danger of joining the 2008 Detroit Lions in the saddest club in professional football.

We don't know what Hue Jackson's and Cleveland's goal is -- avoid 0-16 at all cost or get a full evaluation of Kizer. It's possible Jackson (and the team) believes Kizer gives him the best chance to get a victory, but our numbers point to Kessler being Cleveland's best quarterback -- by a wide margin

The Browns have a difficult run of games down the stretch. Here are their remaining opponents as well as the rank of each team's pass defense, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.

Team Rank
Bengals 21st
Chargers 6th
Packers 25th
Ravens 2nd
Bears 13th
Steelers 8th

The Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are among the elite in terms of pass defense, according to our numbers. But even the softer matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals should not be discounted as Kizer has already faced the Cleveland's state rivals once this season and was held to just 118 yards on 34 passing attempts in that defeat.

The one silver lining here is Jared Goff. The Los Angeles Rams' quarterback is having a superb season this year after putting together a truly awful rookie campaign in 2016. Goff finished last year with a Passing NEP per drop back of -0.27, the worst mark in the league that year among passers with at least 100 drop backs. That's actually worse than what Kizer has done so far.

But as we mentioned when discussing the aforementioned study on first-year quarterbacks, most guys with that horrible of a rookie season don't end up amounting to much. Sure, signal callers like Goff and Orton have bucked the trend, but they are outliers for a reason.

Maybe Kizer can follow Goff's path, or maybe the return of Corey Coleman (and possibly Josh Gordon) boost Kizer's play. But going by the numbers, if the Browns want to avoid a winless campaign, they should be starting Kessler

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1756...-winless-season

I still Hogan is better...I know, I know...but meh, it gets me through the day.

Diam should love this article lol

Who ya gonna believe, the NEP or your lying eyes?

within 15 yds he was deadly...

Does going winless really mean anything or is it just a realilzation of expections at this point?

means we are in desperate need of a legit QB.

Same song, 15th verse.

Man, it would be sweet if lose out except to tie Game 16 against Pittsburgh.

I know Kiser has turned the ball over quite a bit, is inaccurate, stares down receivers and has made some bad decisions. As Hue would say I get it.
I also know he's only a 21 year old rookie.
He has very few weapons on offense and an offensive line that has under achieved and is missing Joe Thomas.
Kiser does have the size, arm, toughness and athletic ability that you can't teach. I was hoping he would have progressed more than he has but I'm not ready to give up on him. I would definatley draft a QB high because Kiser has shown he has a lot of improving to do.
Next spring let the QB competition begin but in no way am I ready to give up on Kiser.

If that competition is even remotely fair, Kizer is going to smoke any of the 2018 rookies.