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Alabama is not a lock to make the playoffs, especially if they lose today. It's just hard to say what the committee would do. The 2016 Buckeyes made the playoffs as a 1 loss team that didn't play in the conference title game due to a tiebreaker, but the 2015 Buckeyes didn't in a similar situation-- 1 loss team that didn't play in the conference title game due to tiebreaker.

The 2015 Buckeyes, no matter how stacked they were, just didn't have the quality of wins. The 2016 Buckeyes did-- wins over 3 teams that finished in the top 8 of the final playoff ranking.

The 2017 Crimson Tide has the wins over currently #14 Miss. State and #18 LSU-- not quite a stellar resume to send a team to the playoffs that didn't play in the conference title game, but then again, they also wouldn't have two losses including getting blown out at Iowa (and an otherwise very impressive resume for OSU). How would that shake out? Well it would be a tough and controversial decision for the committee either way.

Worse for the Buckeyes would be Alabama beating Auburn and then losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Especially if the game vs Auburn is a blowout and the SEC Championship game is close.

TCU Big 12 Champion would not keep the Buckeyes out. Just look at the differences in the strength of schedule or quality of wins or whatever. Buckeyes (if they win out) would clearly be in over them, IMO. Or look at the playoff rankings right now: Ohio State is #9 and can add wins over Michigan and Wisconsin, and pick up a Big Ten title. TCU is #12 and can add a win over Oklahoma along with the Big 12 title. How would TCU jump OSU?

The only one of these that I'd consider a true need is for OSU to beat ichigan.

Alabama losing would complicate things but would by no means be the end of Ohio State's chances.

Wisconsin losing would take some of the luster off a potential Ohio State win in the Big Ten championship game but overall wouldn't greatly affect the Buckeyes chances, IMO-- only at the margins.

Things look favorable to the Buckeyes due to the number of games still to be played among teams ranked above Ohio State, and due to the past behavior of the committee in favoring teams that win major conference championships as well as those that rack up a number strong wins (on top of overall record, of course.) Put it all together and only 3-4 teams could conceivably beat or match what OSU would have if they win out.

There is still a game between Alabama and Auburn, and then the winner of that against Georgia.

Clemson and Miami play each other, as do TCU and Oklahoma.

Ohio State can effectively knock out Wisconsin by beating Michigan and then Wisconsin.

Notre Dame can only add a win against Stanford and can surely be jumped (it already happened weeks ago in the AP and coaches polls.)

The committee isn't going to send a 2 loss non-champion over Ohio State if they win out. The only possible exception might be Oklahoma, due to the head to head matchup between those teams. Other than that, I don't consider it as a reasonable possibility.

The Pac-12 champion could factor in but the metrics the committee has strongly factored in the past to resolve such differences among teams with the same number of losses (strength of victory, strength of schedule, analytics) would favor Ohio State.

They have consistently shown that they look at the entire body of work, with an emphasis on the plus side of things, rather than harping on a particularly bad loss. That is to say that a loss obviously factors in largely-- it is a loss after all, but they do not seem to put as much weight into those beyond simply being a loss. Certainly style and quality matter (as in Ohio State vs Iowa and Clemson vs Syracuse) but the style and quality do not matter as much as they do on the plus side of things, where high-quality wins and conference championships are a large boost.

I'm not sure how much this matters but it is worth mentioning:

In the past the committee has mentioned using analytics to compare the strength of teams with similar records and achievements. The college football selection show is hosted by ESPN, and ESPN coincidentally has its own brand of analytics known as Football Power Index.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

1. Alabama 28.9
2. Ohio State 26.1
3. Clemson 23.6
4. Auburn 22.7
5. Penn State 22.6
6. Georgia 22.3
7. Washington 21.4
8. Oklahoma 21.3
9. Wisconsin 20.6
10. Notre Dame 19.6

Chip Kelly to UCLA. That should make things very interesting in LA.

You know what they say about rivalry week. All that analysis above means squat if Ohio State keeps playing like they are.

Should be interesting. Say what you will about Chip's time in the NFL, but he turned Oregon into a powerhouse.

oklahoma's game right now.

The stadium is as loud as a seahawks game right now.

auburn has bama on the ropes

OU 52 - WV 17 10 minutes left in the 3rd.

you know its bad when the best thing the commentators are talking about is someones head coaching job status.

Looks to me like OSU will be out now ...

What did I just watch in the Bama game? I only caught the end of it. It looked like Auburn wasn't ready, but neither was Alabama's quarterback. Snap went by him, turnover on downs

Not necessarily.

The Big 12 could still be left out entirely, if TCU wins next week.

Alternatively, OSU could get in over Alabama. It would be nice if Auburn could run up the score here a little bit...

Oh wow, 4th and 4, Alabama's receiver catches a 3 yard pass with room to turn up field and run. Instead he cuts back toward the LOS and comes up short.

I'm not sure what to root for. Auburn is up 26-14. It would be ideal if Alabama came back to win, but if Auburn is going to win, it would be good if they win big. The oddities of the College Football Playoffs.

Something strange just happened to that Auburn RB. It was like he fainted in the middle of the play.

Wow, now their 3rd running back just dropped.

Can coaches on the sidelines please not pick their noses on national tv?

my prediction:

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama

I love me some losing Saban.

Always nice to see an Alabama loss.

Auburn beat undefeated #1 teams in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Very impressive.

Alabama is really not in all that great of a spot now. They are going to drop and they can't add anything after this because they won't play in their conference championship game.

Their best wins are vs Mississippi State (4 losses) and LSU (3 losses and still has to play tonight.)

Alabama's predicament reminds me a lot of the 2015 Buckeyes. That was an unbelievably talented bunch, but was also a 1 loss team that missed out on the conference championship game due to the tiebreaker, and they only had the one good win vs Michigan. They finished 7th in the final ranking (behind 2 loss Stanford I might add, which finished 5th.)

Alabama is the only team that had 0 losses, and now only 1 loss,

Why aren't they in the conference championship game vs. maybe Georgia?

Actually

who are the top teams and who got helped by the Alabama loss, and what are the likely cases to put teams in or out at this point.

Definitely in:

Clemson/Miami winner

Georgia/Auburn winner

Oklahoma with a win in the Big 12 title game

Wisconsin with a win in the Big 10 title game

The outside teams if one of the previous two doesn't win:

Alabama, who does not have much of a resume, but does only have 1 loss.

TCU, with a win over Oklahoma in the Big 12.

Ohio State, with a Big Ten title win.

Notre Dame (if they are able to beat Stanford)

Will be the toughest job of the committee yet.

I think Alabama gets the spot, but I also think it's crappy because they haven't beaten anybody this year.

The Iowa loss for Ohio State will haunt this group for a long time.

Auburn and Alabama both have 7-1 SEC records. Auburn will represent the SEC West in the conference championship game due to the head to head tiebreaker they earned today.

Nobody really benefits from Alabama's loss, unless you count Auburn (of course) who just won and maybe Georgia and other future opponents if they wanted to avoid Alabama.

The issue is that Alabama has a stellar reputation and are a one loss team. They could still make the playoffs as the second SEC team, which could crowd out another team on the margins. That depends on what happens over the next week and what the committee decides.

Agree on all of the above


I think that loss isn't as big of a factor as some think. The explanation for that is above but it's basically that beyond counting losses as a big factor for being a loss, the committee has shown to focus more on the plus side of things.

If I had to order those above teams, I would make it

- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Who cares

It would be very close between Alabama and a potential 2 loss, Big Ten champion Ohio State. If I had to put money on it, I would put it on Ohio State making it due to the difference in resumes. Ohio State would simply have better quality wins to go along with the Big Ten championship. That said, it would not at all surprise me if the committee chose 1 loss Alabama over 2 loss Ohio State.

I would be very shocked, however, if the committee sent 2 loss TCU over 2 loss Ohio State. Ditto with Notre Dame.

Anyone have any predictions for next week, and what the top 4 will look like?

Oklahoma wins the Big 12. I believe they will be the top seeded team.

Clemson beats Miami, who has not been playing well the last few weeks. I could really see a blowout in this one. Clemson is the second seed.

I think Georgia beats Auburn in the SEC title game. I know Auburn handled them earlier in the season, but I think it's not often that a team gets a second crack at opponent in college football, and I think that makes for one interesting matchup. Georgia is your 3rd seed.

If these all happen it really does come down to 2-loss OSU versus 1-loss Alabama.

I mean there is Notre Dame, but they still play tonight, but I don't know if anyone on the committee can say with a straight face that they think ND is better than Ohio State or Alabama.

I think Ohio State does win next week against Wisconsin, but it won't be 59-0. I think it will be a pretty clean, well played game, especially if JT Barrett is not able to play, or is at least not close to 100%

Like I said in the earlier post, I think Alabama is the 4 seed. I think a precedent was set last year with Ohio State having 1 less loss than Penn State. I understand that this is not the same situation, because Alabama does not have 3 wins over current top 10 teams, like Ohio State did last year, but that Iowa loss can not sit well with anyone on the committee.

With the craziness of the last few days, it really does come down to Ohio State vs Alabama.

Maybe a play-in game?

To be honest, I think if you lined these two teams up right now, Ohio State would beat them, but that's not really the point of deciding who gets in (as we saw last year with OSU getting in over a team that beat them during the season)

I like looking through scenarios rather than specific seeds. A lot of info can only be reflected in the final seeding. For example, we all know the winner of the ACC will be in the final four. What seed that is depends on which team wins and what happens elsewhere.

The current seeding also does not reflect future additions to a team's resume.

My predictions are basically:

- The ACC Champion will be in.
- The SEC Champion will be in.
- Oklahoma will be in if they beat TCU in the Big 12 championship game. If TCU wins, the Big 12 will probably be left out although both teams could have an outside chance (they'd split head to head, TCU would have the conference championship, Oklahoma the win over Ohio State who may well be the team that this conference is compared to.)
- Wisconsin is in with a win, of course. Ohio State, with a win, would probably have the best chance at the #4 seed if you have the ACC Champions, SEC Champions, and Oklahoma as Big 12 champions in some order above them.

Then there's Alabama. We all know they're extremely good. If this was sorted out on with the eye test and analytics, Alabama would be in for sure but unfortunately things are decided on the field and by what accomplishments a team has.

Everyone is going to compare the situation to last year, not realizing that this year's Alabama team does not have a single marquis win whereas last year's Ohio State team arguably had 3! Will the committee remain steadfast in applying that standard, or will they bow to the inevitable pressure because they "set the standard" last year that a 1 loss non-champion gets in over a 2 loss champion?

I have to think that Ohio State would probably get in over Alabama in such a scenario and that Alabama's better chance of getting in is actually TCU beating Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game-- a scenario which could see Ohio State and Alabama getting in as the 3 and 4 seeds. Those are the two biggest TV draws in college football as well. I'm not saying... I'm just saying.

As far as actual predictions in the conference championship games, I'd probably take:

Big 12: Oklahoma
ACC: Clemson
SEC: Auburn
Big Ten: Ohio State
Pac-12: Who cares

The winner of the Auburn/Georgia game gets in - I think Auburn
The winner of the Clemson/Miami game is in - I think Clemson
If Oklahoma wins they are in
If Wisconsin wins they are in.

If Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose?

My first question would be, can we have just a 3 team playoff?
Clearly the answer is no.

My second question would be, why not Central Florida?

I think we can go ahead and cross Notre Dame off the list.

my guess for this week's rankings:

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin
4. Auburn
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. TCU
9. Miami
10. Penn State

the question is: will an OSU victory over Wisconsin be enough to overtake Alabama for the 4 spot

It might. It just depends on where the Bucks end up today. I am not sure a win over Michigan is going to give them much of a boost. I don't think Michigan was ranked. Not a lot of bonus points in beating a unranked opponent.

But the one advantage they will have over Alabama, if they beat Wisconsin is a conference championship. Also, either Georgia or Auburn will be off that list with a loss in the SEC championship.

peen, who has Alabama beaten? Heck, who has Georgia beaten?

A conference championship and a pair of wins against teams that will finish in the top 10 of the college football rankings (Penn State and Wisconsin.)

Even the Michigan State and Michigan wins factor in, probably almost as much as Alabama's wins against LSU and Mississippi State. It's the marquis ones that would probably push OSU over the top though.

I still think the closest comparison here is actually not 2016 but rather 2015. The final playoff ranking went like this (top 8):

1. Clemson 13-0
2. Alabama 12-1
3. Michigan State 12-1
4. Oklahoma 12-1
5. Stanford 11-2
6. Iowa 12-1
7. Ohio State 11-1
8. Notre Dame 10-2

As I recall, 1-4 were pretty obvious that year but 5-7 is where things get interesting, if nothing else, because of the insight it gives into the committee's thinking. Notice there the 2 loss champion ranked above the 1 loss non-champions Iowa and Ohio State. And Iowa's only loss actually came in the Big Ten championship game that year! That Ohio State team was stacked (that was Ezekiel Elliott and Joey Bosa's final year at OSU, among other first rounders) but their issue was they only had 1 good win at the end of the year vs Michigan.

Yet 2 loss Stanford finished higher than both Iowa and OSU. It just shows how much the conference championship and quality wins matter. Even Stanford was really not exceptional that year though they had a win against Notre Dame and a couple other decent ones.

When comparing teams on the margin-- such as 2 loss conference champions and 1 loss non-champions, the committee weighs heavily on other factors, most notably the strength of victory but also eye test, analytics, etc.

Only the final ranking really matters. Relying on this week's ranking (where OSU may not be any better than #8) can be deceiving because it won't factor in any future games/accomplishments.

If OSU goes and soundly beats undefeated #4 Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship while Alabama watches on the couch, that will factor heavily into the ranking. I can't guarantee that it would push OSU over the top although I think it's more likely than not that it will.

Of course, all that is predicated on OSU actually beating Wisconsin (and style points do matter), but Wisconsin is a damn strong football team and that can't be overlooked. Then again, I'm just a fan on a message board, I can look at all the scenarios I want. It's the players that need to be focused on taking care of business.

I agree a conference title holds some weight.

Like I said earlier, much depends on where teams sit after today.