DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Baltimore Residents Blame Record-High Murder Rate On Lower Police Presence

on top of that, whats the crime rate of AA's based on income? whats the crime rate of AA's who live in upper middle class area?

i can do what you're doing right now, take a city thats predominately white, and then show the crime rate, then use it to be like "see, white people are violent".

you don't take into consideration income level, neighborhood, job outlook, education standards and rankings, etc.

but you do this crap over and over again, then act surprised when people call you alt-right

I'm saying that blacks have the highest crime rates for most categories and all majority black areas of significant population have high crime rates. That nobody can provide a single counterexample should tell you all that you need to know.

Of course, it is only fair to say that the large majority of blacks do not commit crimes! I do not understand why the racial crime data is such a sensitive topic. The data says what it says. I'm not using it against you, Swish. People should be judged on their own character.

Do you think that black people are inherently prone to violence and crime?

The large majority are not, and in my experience, are just honest, decent people trying to make the best of this crazy world we live in.

So would you agree that crime and violence are tied to poverty and a lack of education?

Racial differences in homicide rates are poorly explained by economics

There are large racial differences in the homicide rates in the United States. The FBI and other government organizations are not always forthcoming with detailed data, but you can quite readily estimate it (approximately) with the victimization/mortality data from the CDC and other sources (most crimes being committed intra-racially)

The black homicide rate is about 10 times higher than the white rate. It has been this way for quite some time (i.e., even as the rates have changed the differences themselves have remained fairly stable).

....

At the same time that articles on age and gender abound, criminologists are loath to speak openly on race and crime for fear of being misunderstood or labeled racist. This situation is not unique, for until recently scholars of urban poverty also consciously avoided discussion of race and social dislocations in the inner city lest theybe accused of blaming the victim (see W. J. Wilson 1987). And when the topic is broached, criminologists have reduced the race-crime debate to simplistic arguments about culture versus social structure.

....



[more data]

Analysis of the combined data
Race is a strong predictor of homicide rates at a county level.

It predicts better than the poverty rate, median household income, racial segregation, income segregation, education rates, and so on and so forth.

The single-motherhood rate is a close second though.

....

Curiously a 1 SD increase in the Theil racial segregation index is associated with a ~0.18 SD increase in the homicide rate, which is non-trivial, though perhaps less than some might expect. I am not convinced that segregation itself actually causes increased violence because it’s likely that increased violence and crime actually spurs further racial segregation, i.e., the arrow of causation likely runs substantially in the other direction (though I wouldn’t necessarily deny the potential for co-causality/feedback loops here). You might also note this (standardized) coefficient is roughly of the same scale as the coefficients for single-motherhood and poverty segregation. It’s also appreciably less than the association with poverty.

....

Even in modestly racially segregated counties percent black remains a very strong predictor of homicide rates.

Below are the regression results with and without controls keeping the dependent variable and race/ethnicity unscaled to make comparison across groups easier.

[more and more data]

....

In model 1 transitioning from a 100% white to 100% black county increases the expected homicide rate by ~28 homicides per 100,000 people per year whereas the change in the expected outcome is “only” ~18.5 in model 2 with extensive controls (keep in mind that the average homicide rate in N/W Europe is 1.0-1.5 per 100,000). This implies that controlling for an extensive set of covariates (in a linear model) only reduces the expected homicide rate differential by ~35%.

Race remains an exceptionally strong predictor and this cannot be explained plausibly by racism/bias in reporting, prosecution, etc because this measure (which is derived from coroner reports) removes that sort of thing from the equation entirely.

Poverty rates seem to be a strong predictor and was traditionally, in popular imagination, the go-to explanation for crime rate differences, so let’s take a brief look at that.

....

Although it’s clear that poverty predicts homicide quite independently of black, it’s also clear that black predicts independently of the poverty. Moreover, if you look closely at the distribution and other analysis I present here it’ll be clear that poverty doesn’t come close to closing these racial differences.

Single-motherhood is also a strong predictor.

....

[some more data arguing for single motherhood as a very important contributor to homicide rates as well]

Counties with much higher than expected rates of single-motherhood (negative on x-axis) given the poverty rate, have much higher than expected homicide rates (negative on y-axis).]

....

By now I think it should be pretty clear that the economic conditions of each group are not particularly strong predictors of their victimization rates and that they certainly don’t come close to closing the white-black gap. Even poor “white” counties have homicide rates quite a bit lower than affluent “black” counties with low poverty rates.

....

One could play around with this forever, but I very much doubt that anyone can find a realistic economic-driven model that explains this. I do not dispute that there may be important ecological differences in these communities or that these differences might have some non-trivial influence, but the homicide differences are too vast to be explained by objective differences in the economic characteristics of the communities. Even with the composites above, some of which are influenced substantially by behavioral differences, which are not purely economic, and which are sensitive to things like crime rates (e.g., more crime tends to drive down housing and rental prices, encourage more “white flight”, etc), do not come close to closing these large gaps.

....

The single-motherhood rate is still very much significant, likewise for differences in the racial coefficients. I feel this is important to show because there appears to be fairly strong association between the county-wide racial segregation index and homicide rates for blacks, in particular, in simple bivariate regressions. Though you might also note that even in perfectly racially integrated counties (according to the index) the black homicide rate is still much higher than average and that most blacks are not in these heavily segregated counties.

....

t’s also worth noting that the hispanic poverty concentration is pretty similar to blacks and yet their homicide rates are much lower (even controlling for poverty rates).

Other things being equal (e.g., earnings levels, employment, etc) higher rates of single-motherhood will tend to have a direct mechanistic effect on poverty rates (fewer earners and lower average female earnings) which, itself, will tend to increase the “concentration” metric too. (Which does not mean that single-motherhood is simply measuring poverty, because poverty rates don’t explain differences in single-motherhood that well, especially not between groups…. even though aggregating the data together implies it’s a near-linear inverse relationship, see table below).

This figure implies that there is very little overlap in neighborhood context, which may actually be sort of true, but this methodology obviously leans heavily on single-motherhood rates and racial segregation to find racial differences this vast, i.e. it’s not simply a measure of concentration of poverty.

whats the crime rate for AA's in a specific income bracket comparable to the income bracket of whites?

You just posted something that only proves my point.

There’s so many factors that goes into the murder and crime rate.

So do us all favor and stop trying to imply that AA’s are inherently racist. You want to base it off of one stat to support whatever racist agenda you have going on, but the more you post, the more you prove that their are other factors that contribute to the crime/murder rates.

I mean damn, single motherhood? Posting stats on poverty, then tries to argue that poverty isn’t that much of a factor?

Only you would post something like that as evidence.

Sure i can say that, cause it’s crap.

If I took a predominately white area, looked at the crime rate and saw that whites were responsible for most of the murders there, I would get blasted on the board for implying that whites are violent based on ethnicity.

That’s exactly what you’re doing.

Then, you tried some nonsense about being looked at dirty in black neighborhoods, something completely irrelevant and based on nothing more than feelings.

At this point, I’m left with no other conclusion than the one of you only posting this article to trash black people, like you do so many times.

84% of whites kill other whites, yet you post nothing on that. The opioid epidemic, which affects mostly whites and leads to crime, is something you never mention.

Baltimore cops planting evidence to arrest people is something you never mention.

So yea, cool we like crown, but I’d never drink with you cause the evidence would suggest you’d call the cops on me for some stupid reason, making me a statistic, and then using that to further your agenda in why blacks are violent.

So if you do not believe that blacks are inherently prone to violence and crime, but think poverty and lack of education aren't tied to crime rates, what factor do you think is responsible for blacks being arrested/prosecuted at levels far higher than other races?

poverty explains most of the problems, though.

and it's funny how you'll bounce back in forth from raw numbers to per capita rates.

we use terms like black on black violence, but you never bring up the fact that white people kill other whites 84% of the time.

how come that's never viewed as a problem, though?

https://tcf.org/content/report/architecture-of-segregation/

look at the poverty rates broken down by the 3 main ethnicities in this country. its pathetic.

and all the statistics in other sources show the same.

1 in 4 AA's live in poverty, compared to 1 in 13 whites?

but thats what ticks me off the most when discussing these things with you. i found those stats right on the first page of google, yet you'll either claim you didn't see them, or simply ignored it because it doesn't fit whatever narrative you're trying to present.

there's a reason why impoverished white neighborhoods have way higher crime rates than non-impoverished ones. actually, when taken into account poor white neighborhoods with poor blacks, the numbers aren't all that off, and depending on the source, such as the link i provided, it's quite similar:

Poor white Americans experience violent crimes at rates virtually equal that of poor black Americans, as Massie points out in a 2014 Department of Justice study. Black and white Americans kill members of their own races at similar rates, too.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati...crime/87609692/

and there's a ton of other links that support that, but then thats when i realized why you decided to focus more on the murder rate than overall crime;

cause it fits your narrative that blacks are inherently violent. because at the end of the day, everything you're saying is leading up to that.

especially with your "the way i experienced this neighborhood" crap fest paragraph.

honestly, that paragraph definitely belong in the top 3 dumbest nonsense you've ever tried to push on here. dirty looks is so subjective and based purely on assumption and nothing more, but the fact that you're using it as evidence to whatever bigoted view you have of us AA's isn't surprising whatsoever.

And when did that trend start happening?

Thanks obama!

And when did that trend start happening?

Thanks obama!

You might want to look at the facts.

The trend didn’t happen in 2017. Please stop spreading misinformation.

According to the latest BLS report released Friday, the black unemployment rate has been in decline since at least October 2017. In March, the unemployment rate for African-Americans 16 or older was above 8 percent, but by September, it fell to 7 percent. In December 2017, the rate hit the new low of 6.8 percent.

It's hard to fix a problem if you are in denial about the related facts. There is a lot of delusion out there when it comes to crime. Those who have a pretty good idea often do not say anything. It's a horrible combination. The result is the bodies continues to pile up, there's a whole bunch of arguing and mudslinging, but nothing ever really changes. It is a tragedy. Things don't have to be like this.

LOCK THEM UP ... LOCK THEM UP ... LOCK THEM UP ...