DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Lamar Jackson

The white board assesses football knowledge specifically about their offense and their knowledge of NFL concepts. I think Lamar will do better then most people think is because most people don't realize or recognize that although he plays in a "spread" offense they're passing game uses NFL concepts.

If you are saying that Lamar doesn't keep his eyes downfield when he runs I disagree. Some of the best scramble run stop and pops this year have come from his arms and legs. Some in the draft media community said the same thing about Watson last year. I remember having a similar discussion w/ Razorthorns about Watson last year.

Here is an example:

But without charting through the games for oneself this is just a random play without context of frequency

Jackson is like any other QB prospect when it comes to landing in the right spot. Any QBs failure/success is inextricably linked to the team and situation they are drafted into see: 2016 vs 2017 Jared Goff.

If you have the time you should join CHSdawg and myself and some other folks in charting some games of the prospects? We're currently working on this game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=USz9fADURlA
Of Lamar vs Florida State.

I think taking a closer look can expand/alter opinions established from a general impression formed from casual watching. Razorthorns said this last year:
https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1225606/re-film-breakdown-deshaun-watson

I haven't watched and researched him enough yet to have an opinion. Just being honest there.

I do worry about any QB that is known for quicking deciding to just run the ball. Running QBs always end up getting hurt. My concern regarding that about Watson certainly came true as he didn't finish the year. Watson was showing some great improvements technique wise too compared to his college style. I hope he recovers and learns to rely lesson on running the ball and putting his body at risk.

I'm looking forward to catching up on this kid later on.

The issue though is whether or not the thing a QB becomes 'known' for through the draft media is actually true. Often times the draft media gets it wrong and the only way to know is to look through the film.

Well truth be told all QBs get hurt. There is the impression that QBs get hurt more often when they're running but no one actually knows if that theory is valid. Every year QBs go down...from pocket passers to "runners".

And Watson suffered a fluke injury in practice, he didn't get hurt because of his "running".

The flip side of that coin is that maybe some underestimated or wrongly evaluated him as prospect and therefore attribute his success to vast improvement from the college prospect. And again Watson didn't get hurt running the ball.

Sure all Qbs have a chance to get injured but a betting man will place that bet all day that a QB who runs the ball a lot has a higher chance to get injured. That's just plain simple truth. If need be think of it as a pushing your luck factor and eventually your luck runs out.

Watson was clearly having issues with ball placement in college. He clearly got better at it from what I have seen in his limited NFL action. That to me is clearly getting coached up. I'm hoping he continues to improve and doesn't revert back while being injured.

I'm looking forward to looking at Lamar in a few weeks since lots of people like him.

I wish I did have the time.... but my daughter takes up a lot of it, and I’m glad to give it to her, plus I work third shift. I get enough time to watch some game tape on the prospects I like but not enough to actually chart the plays. Really though, I’d much rather watch the defensive players then offense but that’s just my personal preference, I don’t like doing the QBs but we’ve needed one for so long it’s hard to ignore them.

Looks like he actually may have initially injured his knee in the game vs Seahawks (not running mind you, but while throwing in the pocket). Seems that may have been a pre-cursor to what happened in practice.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/desha...t-the-seahawks/

But you said Watson injury confirmed your concern yet he wasn't injured running. It happened in practice apparently exacerbated from an injury he sustained in the pocket.

In your opinion Watson clearly had accuracy issues, but I posted the actual accuracy charting earlier in the thread. And the charting clearly does not support your opinion of Watson having accuracy issues unless you also think Mitch has accuracy issues. But I don't mean to rehash that discussion, lol. Suffice it to say that 'accuracy' is becoming a very subjective designation/observation.

But, I think we can agree that Watson played better then many of the evaluations projected.

Anyhow...i look forward to your contributions in the QB film breakdowns.
I always appreciation reading/discussing different viewpoints during film breakdowns.

Well to me ball placement is different than plain accuracy. I mean they are tangled up together, sure, but any pass that is caught is an accurate one statistically speaking. I got no problems with that.

Ball placement is at a higher level than just accuracy in my opinion and the way I watch video. My grief against Watson was that he seldom hit WR in stride and that they always had to come back to the ball. He got bailed out of a lot of bad passes that way. They were accurate passes because they got completed but they showed poor ball placement.

Optimal ball placement is when they WR can easily keep running after the catch by leading them in the direction they are running. It takes a lot of mental processing to make those kind of throws and is reliable towards anticipating when a college QB will have a good chance to adjust to NFL speed. Plus it just means they are a far more accurate passer than one who just gets the ball somewhere in the area.

Rosen for example has awesome ball placement on passes that travel less than 20 yards in the air so he will make a great WCO QB in my humble opinion. His basic accuracy drops off a great deal though once passes go beyond that range so he won't do well on a team that emphasises a vertical passing game like Hue likes or say a Norv Turner's Air Coryell System.

When I say a QB who runs a lot tends to get hurt more it's true. Statistically speaking it's plain and simple. It doesn't mean that ther will get hurt while running. It means if you roll the dice more often then eventually something will make you roll snake eyes. Really mobile QBs don't tend to set their feet properly as a passer because they tend to be set to run even while getting ready to pass. Not all of them do this of course but it tends to be an issue. They either never set properly of they get "happy feet" and don't keep proper feet placement long enough to be set to pass. Usually bad footwork creates a foundation for a bad throwing motion that leads to accuracy issues at the NFL level.

There always outliers/exceptions but generally speaking it holds true and tends to be a reliable indicator. First you see if they have 60% or higher general accuracy and then you analyze where those ball are placed when completed. In college Watson FORCED his WR to come back to the ball a LOT. In the NFL he is doing way better at leading his WRs. To me it's like night and day difference. Watson is getting some awesome coaching to make that kind of change. Keep a good eye on his QB coach and OC because they have a strong future in the NFL in my humble opinion.

I just watched this video on Lamar and it gave me a great impression of his moral and mental make up.



He appears to be a very humble kid with his heart on his sleeve. Just a really fine young man. He is not faking it either. I can tell by reading his body language and facial expressions. By his own admission though he has trouble dealing with being in the spotlight which send up a small red flag but he seems good at compartmentalizing the stress with an alter ego when he puts on the helmet to play so that is good to see.

He also looks to be a little bit scrawny. That makes me worried but I like how he says he tries to stay healthy by avoiding contact when he runs. That won't help him while he is passing in the pocket when he has to stand there and take the hit to make the pass. His body frame worries me a bit for the NFL level of hit taking.

He's all about his teammates.

and watching the games, you can tell his teammates will follow him through anything.

Yeah, I definately like him as a human being.

But can you like him as a quarterback?

Ultimately that’s what it comes down to.

For me it’s baker or Lamar.

Baker and Lamar are really going to solidify themselves as top 10 picks. I think people will fall in love with what Lamar knows and Baker's charm and resolve will cut through any "off the field" concerns.

I love Lamar in a lot of ways but his 57 and change career completion percentage is pretty terrifying.

Rosen;s at 61%
Darnold's at what, 65%
and Mayfield's is 68 and change I think

Then again, most people keep saying Josh Allen is a top ten QB, so what do I know...

I just prefer QB's that have 2 years at 62% or higher in college...how else are we ever suppose to expect a consistent 60+% in the pro's??

There are a couple guys who "showed out" enough in one year to merit the risk, but even they were usually high 60's in that one year...

C'mon man you really think you need to explain this to me? Especially since we've actually broken down film together?

And like I said I posted their actually accuracy charting from PFF and they charted ball placement. Apart from the examples on film of Watson displaying advanced ball placement with backshoulder/throws to body position. PFF actually charted ball placement into several quadrants. So again, i respect your opinion on Watson and his accuracy but I disagree with you and further more the actual accuracy numbers don't support your opinion.

Sure you can chalk it all up to 'improved' play and coaching...but by that token you can rationalize the projection of any prospect that exceeds your evaluation without ever having to admit that your evaluation may have been off if you attribute their "improvement" to "coaching".



Here is an example of what 'they' say being off base.... direct quote from a 'scouting' report on Watson's accuracy:

Yet the facts were:



But, look again I digress...like I said I don't intend to rehash our difference on Watson in this Lamar Jackson thread. Suffice it say we disagreed on Watson's eval and he's had more success then your evaluation expected.

--------------------------------------------------------------
If the stats are out there that support your notion I would love to see them. But I don't want to go round and round over this.
My response was about this statement you made:
And reminding you that Watson's injury does not support your concern like you stated above. Watson was injured in practice which was exacerbated from an injury he sustained while in the pocket.

Anyhow....this is the Lamar Jackson thread afterall....

Ed, I have no problem saying he played at a higher level than I thought he would in the limited time he played. I still stand by my eval though because I saw what I saw. None of my opinions come anywhere except from what I see myself. His receivers often had to come back to the ball. It's quite possible that was by design though seeing how much he improved in his NFL games. To me his NFL playstyle is a LOT better than his college playing. Good for him =)

He still didn't finish season though. Sure it didn't happen on the field but the law of probability still took hold of him. Still it was a freak accident that you can't blame him for. I agree with that. Lets see how he does next season and if he finishes it healthy. I surely hope he does because the NFL needs more quality QB's playing in it.

BTW I was fine taking him at 12 and thought that was a stupid trade down. Still it turned into pick #4 this year so ... it's hard to be over critical. Of course I also wanted Wentz over Goff too.

I can like Lamar as a QB. Just not at #1 or #4. If we traded down a little bit then sure.

I think the kid has a TON of potential to be a total stud at QB. He has great arm strength, great field vision, outstanding running ability, and he definitely has that "IT" factor. He is a bonafide winner.

He has some serious problems though. They are completely fixable but they are there though. His footwork is terrible. Flat out terrible and it causes major problems for him when it comes to throwing consistency. His throwing motion completely changes based on his feet. When they set properly he can throw an amazing pass. When he doesn't that ball can go anywhere from on target to sailing at the moon.

He at times chooses to run to quickly instead of following his reads. I will gamble that is by coach's design though since they like him to run. I think he has a certain set of reads where he just hauls butt. I can't prove that but it is what I suspect. He will need to be more patient in the NFL.

I think if he goes to the right team, sits and polishes his footwork and throwing technique that he will become a top 10 QB. If he is rushed into playing and not given proper coaching then he will flounder and have a rough NFL life in the same way RG3 did. The difference is that this kid could develop into a true pocket passer with great mobility to boot.

He actually reminds me a bit of Steve Young who in my opinion greatly benefited from sitting behind Joe Montana. I could really see him going at #2 with the giants and sitting behind Eli. I think it's a perfect marriage in fact. If I were the giants I would do it in a heartbeat.

Burning through some YouTube cut-ups today

but running QB's can't make plays in the pocket.

Generally speaking your right. I think Lamar has the potential to be a pocket passer who also runs great. He just needs some meat on his bones. He is too scrawny to stay healthy in the NFL I think.

Still I love this kid and I am rooting for him bigtime!

People really sleep on how he's a better pocket passer than Mayfield.

No way, no how.

Why not?

As I’ve mentioned before, if you watched Louisville this year, you’d see how bad their O line was.

Lamar has made plenty of throws in the pocket when he actually has a pocket. Obviously there’s times he takes off too quickly, but that applies to a bunch of QBs in college, including mayfield.

He'll sit in the pocket longer than most QBs will. He only has this perception because normally when he breaks the pocket, he's made a decision to run up field. Which is a good decision, when it will automatically get you 5 yards easy. The perfect run play is 4+ yards and Lamar is getting at least 5 yards every time. I get the want to have him look for the pass longer, but a 5 yard gain is a great play in most occasions and those are his worst plays.

Lamar has star potential. If he came out in a different year when the Browns weren’t drafting #1 I’d be all over him. Kind of an RG3 type but with even better touch accuracy. Just too much of an injury risk to take at 1 Overall.

I don't think Lamar Jackson is an injury risk anymore than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen are injury risks. I wish we could have Lamar Jackson on our team as QB, but I can't see him going #1.

I love this kid the more I watch him. Flat out love him.

Did you love the 4 picks he through against Mississippi St in the bowl game?

He will make a good WR at the next level.

Or darnold 4 turnovers in his bowl game against Ohio state, or Rosen who couldn’t even play because he still didn’t recover from a concussion.

Darnold had 3 turnovers (2 fumbles and 1 awful pick) and OSU's defense so much better than MSU's defense.

Rosen did not play because he did not want to risk injury and draft status, in my opinion. He suffered concussion 1 month prior - used as an excuse to bypass the game - same as Peppers and others. Another ding against him in my book.

We talking longer than Kizer? That is even longer than Flipper!

Not enthralled with this kid. Solid potential, but solid concerns as viability in NFL for me. He will need time and serious attention. Don't "Kizer" this one.

Every QB has a bad game here and there. You have to look at many games to get any real feel for a player. I always throw out the worst 3 and the best three and watch the rest as time allows.

Lol, what kind of post is this?

Pretty evident. I do not think Lamar will be a starting QB in the NFL - did i spell that out clearly enough for you?

Lamar is exciting and athletic but a team that desparetly needs a starting QB like the Browns can't afford to take a chance on a wild card like Jackson. If he slides to round 2 I would be interested and only then if we have a veteran starter in place. He may wind up being a great NFL QB but the risk is too big to take when the Browns need so much.

Yeah, rushing three linemen and dropping 8 into coverage won't generate a lot of pressure. But how else would you gameplan against Lamar Jackson? If you're saying he's more of an athlete than a QB, then why would you bring heavy blitzes and not drop more into coverage?

When people scout QBs, do you guys notice how teams scheme against them? Or possibly, imagining yourself as the DC and building an imaginary game plan against them? Not like a full game plan, but maybe just some points of emphasis?

Calmly stepped up in the pocket. Defense flooded the zones dropping 8. He went through his progressions. Starting on the Left side, throws with anticipation and accuracy and zipped a ball past the middle zone defender hitting his receiver in stride.

That's a high level throw on 3rd & 8 against a flood zone. The patience to stay in the pocket and deliver is nice to see from a QB like Lamar that has dynamic playmaking ability with is legs.

I watched a little more tape on this guy and I’ll take back what I said about him looking to run all the time, he runs but the kid actually shows tremendous poise in that offense. He runs but runs at the right time more often then not.

If Josh Allen had the poise and better decision making Lamar does he’d easily be top pick in this draft. Plus, while he does have a very narrow stance when throwing, his feet are pretty quiet when he’s in the pocket, onlybmoving enough to avoid the pressure. Again Allen needs to learn this still. He is the one looking to run when he doesn’t need to, just slide up or sideways in the pocket. Lamar is ahead of him here.