Next on my list is Josh Adams. He played at ND. He is 6'2" and 225 lbs.
I wanted to post his video against Georgia, but could not find it. I had to watch the entire game against Georgia an Miami to get any video on him from those two games. Took awhile. I watched a few highlight vids and all the full-game videos I could find. I will post the game against USC for a point of reference, but again, I watched more than this game. I will add commentary after the video.
Here is what I saw:
Strengths:
--Big and strong --Shows some patience --Would do better in a power run scheme rather than a ZBS. --Has a little bit of a jump cut. --Good blocker --Decent hands --Has better top-end speed than one would expect --Good short-yardage runner.
Concerns:
--Very tall and has a big target on his chest --Lack of lateral quickness --Inconsistent performances [more on this later] --Doesn't create anything. He's a system back who follows his blockers and ND had a very good OL. Nelson is unreal.
Some other information:
Adams had some huge games including 191 yds on 19 carries against USC. However, check out these totals against some other good to decent D's:
Alright, thus far I have studied Barkley, Guice, R. Jones, K. Johnson, R. Penny, R. Freeman, and J. Adams. I still have to get to the two Georgia backs, Webber, Scott, Wadley, Jackson, Itto Smith, and Harris.
Here are my new rankings. I have 3 guys that have separated themselves from the others and then two guys are in a cluster and then two more in the final group.
1. Barkley--Penn St 2. Rashaad Penny--SD State 3. Kerryon Johnson--Auburn
These three are significantly better than the others in my opinion. I will say that I am a bit torn on the 2 and 3 spots, but I think Johnson might be more prone to getting hurt due to his running style.
Next group:
4. Derrius Guice--LSU 5. Ronald Jones--USC
These two are very close and it's hard to rank one over the other.
I like Guice as a tough, between the tackles runner and believe THATS what you need in the division! Chubb is that way too IMO. Love Barkley but man he bounces outside alot for his big runs. Bigger, faster D ends can hawk him down in this league.
1. Barkley, speaks for itself. The dude's a freak and is super young. I'm not really big into workout warrior backs, because it doesn't test the needed shiftiness of the position (Hey TRich), but Barkley is a workout warrior. He might put up 40 on the bench press and run a 4.4. His physical tools are unrivaled except by Fournette and Zeke. I would not be surprised if his combine numbers put him in the top 1% of players. Enough about that though. He's a great and forceful runner with very good agility. He does break a lot more runs to the outside than you would want and that might cause him trouble in the NFL. He is a fantastic receiver though. Penn State found a gem in him.
2. Derrius Guice, Guise had a Myles Garret year this year. He did not look like the player he was in 16. However, bad o-line play, no passing game and facing 8 men boxes will do that to you. One thing that stands out to me the most is his ability to get skinny in a hole then accelerate out of it. Another characteristic that sticks out to me is how quickly he tries to go north after any cut. Some RBs will try to make all 11 guys miss before they really get headed north, Guice will put his head down and give you 3 yards. He's a natural runner up there with Saquon, but his inability as a receiver and blocker knocks him down a little bit. Of course he's very young and it's one minor aspect to his overall game, so I'm positive that will get better, but never Barkley good. He's also a workout warrior.
3. RoJo, He's the smallest out of these three backs at 5'11 200, but that's still ample size to play as a 3 down back in the NFL. Especially with his acceleration. I think he might get from gears 1-5 faster than every other back in the class. His forceful north running style, his ability to stay low and his acceleration make for a dynamic run style. I think he'll become a great back in the NFL. I also believe he's the youngest back in the class.
4. Sony Michel, if I were to pick what stands out about him the most it's his vision. Combined with his top end speed and his cutting ability, Sony is always one cut away from a touchdown. He's a very good receiver out of the backfield as well. My biggest concern is his fumbling problems. I'm not sure how much fumbling can be fixed, especially from people who are as prone to it as he is.
Next Group:
5. Mark Walton, as a Hurricane fan I've watched him over the past three years and every time I see him play I'm reminded of a former Hurricane player, Duke Johnson. Like Duke Johnson he thrives in space, is a tremendous receiver and is a surprisingly good pass blocker. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the best out of this group. Unfortunately we already have Duke Johnson.
6. Rashaad Penny, He really polarizes me as a prospect. I see him as a two down back, who won't provide much as a receiver and will be an adequate blocker. I really like him as a runner though. I think his vision matches that of Michel. But his speed really limits him as a runner. He isn't great at breaking tackles either because of his speed and his penchant to raise his chest while running. If he can develop another gear, I think he'll be an amazing shotgun back.
7. John Kelly (Tennessee), Him and Mark Walton would be day 1 picks if they were 5'11+, especially John Kelly. Kelly will measure in at 5'9 ~200 lbs, but plays with the aggressiveness of a 6'2 230lb bruising back. His ability to stay balanced through contact might be the best in the class. He has a very strong stiff arm as well. He's a very good receiver out of the back field as well.
8. Kerryon Johnson (Auburn), He's a solid running back who can do everything well, but nothing is really great. He does have good patience and attacks soft spots in a defense, but his lack of burst and top end speed holds him back as a runner. He is a decent receiver and blocker in the backfield. He could be a solid contributor.
9. Nick Chubb (Georgia), He's a decent enough runner like Kerryon. His vision is fine and he's not as patient as other backs. His top end speed won't get him far in the NFL. However, his ability to stay up through contact really stood out to me.
10. Royce Freeman (Oregon), Might be dependent on zone blocking schemes. He does a good job at keeping his feet moving and varying his stride lengths. I don't think he's as big as his weight is recorded, which is why I don't think he plays as physical as one would think. He really can't make a guy miss or break many tackles so he can't create on his own.
11. Josh Adams - Decent receiver, pitiful blocker. He has problems breaking arm tackles. His go to move is a jump cut, but he doesn't explode out of the cut or jump quickly enough to make it an NFL move.
I still need to watch Ito Smith, Roc Thomas, Bo Scarborough, Nyheim Hines and Akrum Woodley.
I’m starting to like Sony Michadl to a point, his vision is great, he’s serviceable as a receiver but not special. I wish he had a little better ball security, but I think that can be helped.
If I had to fathom a guess who Dorsey will like, I’d have to say posibly Penny or Johnson. They seem most like the type he’s looked at in past drafts. I know he’ likes explosion as a quality in his RBs so maybe after the combine we’ll get a slightly better idea who he may like.
Here is a video of Penny vs Stanford. I chose this one because it is against good competition. Some of my observations are:
--Good pad level --Good vision --Follows blockers well --Stays low and hidden --Runs square most of the time --Decent hands --Willing, but inadequate blocker --Nice forward lean --Dishes out some punishment, but also takes a lot.
Interesting back and certainly one we should keep an eye on.
Thanks for the vid, I watched his "highlights" but a Stanford defense gives you more of a clue of what to expect.
Good assessment. I would like him to lower the pads a tad and bend the knees a little more. Great one cut, down hill runner, reminds me of DeMarco Murray. Not world-class speed but great quickness for a big thick back. Not easy to tackle but I would like to see him anticipate and initiate contact more - lower the shoulders big man! Adequate blocker is being kind, needs some serious work there, which shouldn't be a problem with NFL coaches - like you said - "willing".
To me, his inside vision is among the best (if not the) in the draft. Next level, and not something you can easily teach to those who don't possess it. Also, as it pertains to the Browns, I think he and Duke can be one hell of a duo and he could be a great RB in the AFC North.
If we pass on Barcley, I would love to snag this guy with one of our 2nd round picks.
I really like Penny, he does need to work on his pass pro, and I’m not sure he’s a natural catcher of the ball, I think he can be serviceable but but maybe not great at it. But we do already have Duke for that. He could be a good pick up. Because of those two issues, while I think he’s got a chance to go in round 2, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him slip to round three.
Yes he would, he’s one of my favorites in this draft, and it really wouldn’t surprise me if he fell that far, those GMs seem to devalue the RBs when they don’t block well and are perceived to be not great in the pass game. Plus I look for posibly 1-2 to go in the first and maybe 2-3 more in the second, which by rankings would be about where Penny would fall, according to most sites.......
Barkley Guice Jones Johnson Michael Chubb Penny
That’s kinda how most sites have them ranked right now. I like Penny better then some of those guys but that’s how they seem to be ranked on the draft sites.
Late round or UDFA type who, to me might be better then where he’s ranked......
Lavon Coleman....... 5’11” 235lbs 374 attempts 2000 yds 5.3 per attempt 12 TDs 31 receptions 252 yards 3tds Power type runner, good blocker, didn’t catch a lot of balls but didn’t look bad when he did
I think he could be a better pro then he was in college
Someone nobody is talking about is Bo Scarborough. He was pretty dominant in the 2016 national championship game until he got hurt. I didn't get to watch much this year. How did he recover? Thoughts on him?
Am I perfect? No Am I trying to be a better person? Also no
I would love to draft Bo Scarborough he is a big (6'1" 235), powerful, battering ram of a running back. Decent speed in the open field. Reliable pass protector. Shows some ability as a pass catcher. Good patience to set up his blocks. Runs behind his pads and almost always falls forwards to pick up extra yardage Surprisingly “low milage”. Fewer than 300 carries in 3 years at Alabama ...
Last edited by PastorMarc; 02/23/1811:31 AM.
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
Before we begin, let’s make one thing abundantly clear: Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the 2018 draft class. He is one of the best overall talents the position has seen in years. However, that does not mean his game is without flaws. Charting his 2017 season showed that there are some reasons to be concerned about him going forward.
Of the five running backs that were charted, Barkley saw the least number of defenders in the box on average. He saw six or fewer defenders in the box on nearly 69 percent of his runs. That’s not something that is likely to translate to the NFL, especially if he is drafted to be the focal point of a team’s offense.
A big reason as to why he saw so many light boxes was due to the fact that more than 81 percent of his runs came out of 10 or 11 personnel, as it forced defenses to be in nickel or dime. This isn’t to criticize Barkley or Penn State, because rushing out of 10 and 11 personnel should be the norm in both college and in the NFL. And to Barkley’s credit, he dominated teams out of 10 and 11 personnel, averaging an insane 6.2 yards per carry. But when he was asked to run out of any other type of personnel grouping, Barkley's yards per carry dropped all the way down to 3.01 yards per rush.
Due to the amount of time Barkley ran out of 10 and 11 personnel, he rarely faced loaded boxes at the collegiate level. Of his 151 charted runs, Barkley faced eight or more men in the box just six times, averaging two yards per carry. Even against seven-man fronts, Barkley averaged just 4.6 yards per carry on 41 carries, but those numbers are somewhat skewed due to one 65-yard run. Barkley lost yardage on nearly 22 percent of his runs when facing seven defenders in the box. His offensive line deserves quite a bit of the blame, but he isn’t faultless either, as he often bounced runs outside for losses that should have produced moderate gains. Running against loaded boxes just wasn’t something Barkley did well last season, and it’s fair to wonder if that will be a weakness of his entering the NFL.
Barkley isn’t going to be a player that you are going to want to play smash-mouth football with. He’s a high-variance runner who might lead the league in negative runs (more than 16 percent of his runs over the last two years lost yardage). However, he is a threat to score anywhere from the field from any formation.
If Barkley can find himself in a spread offense with a good quarterback, he would be a threat to put up 2,000 yards from scrimmage in his rookie season. However, if he is miscast as a work-horse back who is forced to carry the ball 20 times against crowded boxes (such as what Leonard Fournette was asked to do in Jacksonville last season), he may disappoint early.
Of the five running backs charted, LSU’s Derrius Guice saw, on average, the most defenders in the box as well as the most blockers in the box. Defenses loaded up to stop Guice, as he was the team’s best weapon and needed to be accounted for on every snap. However, LSU also played a part in creating stacked boxes for Guice, as he rarely ran out of 10 and 11 personnel. Guice played in what we would call a traditional “NFL-offense,” as LSU used a ton of 12 and 21 personnel to run the ball.
While running out of more traditional boxes may have hurt Guice’s college statistics, it prepared him more for what he is going to see in the NFL. Guice saw eight defenders in the box on nearly 24 percent of his carries, averaging more than 6.75 yards per carry. He saw eight or more defenders in the box on a staggering 31.8 percent of his total rushes, by far the most of the top backs in this class.
The most impressive stats for Guice come when you compare the number of defenders in the box versus the number of blockers in the box. When Guice saw an even box (same number of blockers as defenders) in 2017, he averaged an incredible 8.4 yards per rush on 75 carries. Assuming Guice can find himself on a team that runs a ton of inside zone out of 12 or 21 personnel, he should thrive in the NFL against six- and seven-man boxes.
Guice isn’t the receiver that Saquon Barkley is, nor is he the pass protector, but as a pure runner, you can make the case that his skill set is better suited for the NFL game. He is more likely to be a consistent runner at the next level, as he rarely loses yardage despite the extra defenders in the box.
USC’s Ronald Jones is one running back that you can expect to fly up the draft boards after the combine. Jones is a slasher who is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. With teams dying to find dynamic weapons on offense, you can expect Jones’ name to come off the board late on Day One of the NFL Draft.
There are some concerns about his game, however. In the six games that were charted of Jones, he faced eight defenders or more in the box on just nine out of 111 carries (8.1%). On those nine carries, six of them came on goal line situations. For Jones, most of his production came against light boxes in college as USC ran the ball most frequently out of 11 personnel. Out of 11 personnel, Jones averaged five yards per carry on 84 rushes. But out of 12 and 13 personnel, Jones’ yards per carry dipped down to 3.95. That number remained the same when facing seven-man boxes.
His fit will be important in the NFL, as he’s not the battering ram that Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette were coming out of school. Running him into stacked boxes isn’t likely to yield desired results. Instead, he needs to be the final piece to an offense, rather than the focal point. Jones would be at his best if he can find himself on a spread offense in which he can utilize his speed and quickness to make linebackers miss in the second level.
Like Saquon Barkley, Georgia’s Sony Michel benefited from playing on an offense that used a lot of 10 and 11 personnel to spread the defense out. He was used as Georgia’s “lightning” to Nick Chubb’s “thunder” as Michel provided explosive plays at an impressive clip. However, like Barkley, there are concerns about how he fared against more traditional NFL boxes due to lack of experience.
Michel saw eight or more defenders in the box on just 10 percent of his carries in 2017, averaging four yards per carry. Again, the average in itself is fine, but the lack of reps against loaded boxes may scare off teams from using him as full-time player inside of the tackles. Most of his work (nearly 69 percent of his runs) came against five- and six-man boxes, something he won’t see as frequently in the NFL.
Michel is going to be compared to Alvin Kamara over and over again in this draft process, but that’s OK. That is the type of player he is. Get him into space against favorable boxes and defenses and he can make explosive plays all over the field. He probably will never be the type of player to handle 20 or more carries in a game in a traditional, tight end-heavy offense. But he is going to be a dynamic weapon that any offense would love to have.
One of the more underrated backs in this class is Kerryon Johnson from Auburn. In his junior season, Johnson rushed for nearly 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns, all while averaging 4.9 yards per rush in the best conference in football. Johnson was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year and was a huge reason why the Tigers were one of the best teams in college football.
The raw numbers are impressive on their own, but the advanced data supports just how dominant Johnson was. When he faced even boxes, he averaged a stunning 5.93 yards per carry on 121 runs. Even when there was one more defender in the box than blockers, Johnson still averaged 4.75 yards per carry, which led the class in 2017. Against seven-man fronts, Johnson was unstoppable, averaging more than five yards per carry on 87 rushes regardless of how many blockers were on the field. Even against eight-man fronts, Johnson averaged 4.63 yards per carry on 38 attempts. If a defense was ever foolish enough to have fewer than seven defenders in the box, Johnson made them pay by averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
Of all the running backs on the list, Johnson was easily the most impressive, no matter what the situation or criteria is. Depending on how he measures in at the NFL Combine later this month, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Johnson go in the first round. He has everything you want in a workhorse running back and can thrive against any type of box in the NFL.
I don't think Guice will be there for us at the top of the second round, but Kerryon could be there in the 3rd, or bottom of the second assuming we go CB/WR, or possibly OT or LB top of the second. I'd be good with that.
"I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski
"Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield
I think Guice is a top 5 player in this class but I also look for him to slide big time maybe even to the 2nd. I see 6 QBS going in the first and I expect a big run on front 7 in the first. Its gonna push some talent down the board.
I like Kerryon, but I just don't see anything that he does special. He does a lot of things very well, but I don't see anything he really exceeds at. It's one of the main reasons I'm higher on other backs in this class.
He's a plug and play 'Levon Bell' type back for Haley to plug into his system. At a much cheaper cost.
The other backs are good but there are no guarantees they'll be around when the Browns are ready to pick. Heck...Barkley might not be around at pick 4.
I don't think Guice will be there for us at the top of the second round, but Kerryon could be there in the 3rd, or bottom of the second assuming we go CB/WR, or possibly OT or LB top of the second. I'd be good with that.
The Browns should look at Rb with their #4 overall 1st round pick, instead of the much talked of Db position.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
You know, I put an untold number of hours into watching game after game after game after game in the thread I started called Ranking and Evaluating RBs.
I don't start very many threads. I typically don't care about owning thread, but again..............I've put a lot of work into that thread. I have watched 3 to 5 complete games [yes complete games] for each guy I have analyzed and it really bugs me that this thread was not only started, but not moved to the existing thread, especially when this article only included 5 backs and ignored the rest.
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