DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Things are going to get weirder

This is a post I've occasionally thought about making for about the last two years. The idea has been in my head for a lot longer than that.

The way I'm using the term 'weird' here is in the sense that things happen which would have been difficult to predict it to happen based on past experiences. It is not meant to have a positive or negative correlation. It's just-- more like different, unusual, and surprising.

Take a look around you. Self-driving cars (currently in limited use), deep learning/neural networks, far-left and far-right battling it out in the streets, people oblivious to society as they are glued to their smartphones, the bitter hostilization of politics, a new cold war, everything is getting weirder, and this process is accelerating.

On that last point-- it is accelerating exponentially. I remember RocketOptimist talking about trans rights probably sometime back in 2015 or 2016. I forget the specifics. He made a comment that as a society, we were not ready to talk about all that. How quickly that changed! That revolution (for lack of a better term) took all of what, 1 or 2 years?

The 'simulation hypothesis' has been mentioned on here a few times. The idea here is that as technological progress grows at an exponential rate, at a certain point it will be possible to create a conscious AI, couple that with a powerful enough supercomputer and you may be able to simulate an entire universe. If this is possible to do in the future, it stands to reason that we may be in such a simulation right now.

The idea is not so much to discuss how likely that is, but rather an acknowledgement that things are speeding up. What is often missed is this exponential increase in rate of progress means pretty much everything else speeds up along with it. Society has been, and will continue to evolve ever more rapidly.

Things are going to change faster and faster. Meaning things will get weirder and weirder. Arguably, the best skills to have in such an environment will be to be able to learn and quickly adapt to new things. Critical thinking will be paramount, and you will have to figure out things without a guide to follow.

Back when Obama was elected, who could have predicted that Donald Trump would be the next President? It's not only that it was essentially unpredictable, but the political climate that has allowed Donald Trump's election (along with Brexit and many other things) would have been similarly difficult to predict. There may have been some with exceptional foresight who could have predicted it, but they were very few and far between.

Just keep this in mind the next time something seemingly unexpected happens-- from land grabs and gun grabs, to self-driving cars and blockchain technology. It's going to be a wild ride.

however the more things change they stay the same.

uhhh...it's been like this since recorded history. it's always been survival of the fitted. those who can't change are left behind, those who can adapt will excel.

for example, for better or worse, Trump ticked off a lot of old politicians simply because he was able to use new school technology and strategies to market his campaign, while politicians were stuck on the old ways of doing things.

he excelled, while the rest died off to oblivion. and when it comes to marketing and such, he's always adapted. he has always understood that there is no one way to market, one way to do business, one way to campaign.

the best business men/women are the same way. you see Tesla always creating new ideas, even minor traits in their cars, while Ford and GM are struggling to reinvent themselves and appeal to the new generation and markets.

and i called Brexit, so i dunno what you're talking about.

I do think there's some truth to this but it's a bit too general for my liking.

The topic I referenced is as fascinating as it is broad. What do we do as a society when robotics and AI replace the jobs of millions (billions?) of people? Surely society will have to change to some degree to accommodate that?

What will make this different is the rate at which things will change. Go back in time a few hundred years. How much was technology and society different between 1718 and 1728? I'm sure there were some differences, and I may be showing my ignorance of history but I very much doubt that a whole lot of innovations that radically changed society happened between 1718 and 1728.

Yet, exactly that will happen between 2018 and 2028. Things will be much different, and it will be hard to appreciate just how fast things are moving because we'll be in the middle of it.

i think the biggest factor is that we have the internet. so everybody in their momma is connected. i mean, you can go to some Argentine message boards right now and get a general pulse of the country and its people. you couldn't do that in the 80's.

if you're looking at it from a 10 year time frame, it might not seem like much as far as tech goes.

but society and beliefs certainly has rapid changes then. so if we're only looking at it from a tech standpoint, sure.

but you brought up trans and how Rocket was talking about it beforehand. and those are societal changes....which happens all the time.

You might like "The Singularity Is Near" then:

https://singularityhub.com/2016/03/22/te...upput19jrrwcy6a

Interesting piece. I did read some of Kurzweil's work a long time ago but then forgot about it. I may even have "The Singularity is Near" but not sure if I ever actually got around to reading it.

Critical thinking has always been paramount.. but I agree with you in that the human brain is going to have to learn to process information much faster..

The scary part is that human nature has not, and will not, change. No matter the advancements in technology, there will always be a segment of the population who wants to use them for good to help and defend people.. and a segment of the population who wants to use them for evil to manipulate, control, and destroy others for self-gain...

Both segments will find themselves with the most current technology and both will try to put it to use.. and most of us will just remain caught in the middle.

I'm afraid that you're right.

The thing is, the same processes that give us great technology and such also give us greater weaponry and destructive potential. The terrorist of today uses guns and crude homemade bombs. The terrorist of tomorrow may use some horrifying futuristic weaponry. The black hat hacker of today targets computers and servers. The black hat hacker of tomorrow may target the human genome.

It's a pretty sobering thought. Technology brings us some fantastic new things, but also some bad things.

i am sorry but I asked a lot of people and got the same answer from all of them. I can not get any weirder

I think you're pretty normal. Not sure what that says about me though.

I just think you're Pretty.

The book is called Future Shock, published decades ago. The increase, in the RATE, of change, is constantly increasing. It is a geometric progression.

Can we change and adapt? Well, we either do, or die out. Human beings are extremely adaptable, but, so are the cockroach and the rat.

My great grandmother was born before the Civil War ended. I don't think she lived till Apollo 11, but she saw men put into space.

Alvin Toffler.

That book sat around our house for almost a year before I picked it up.
Mind=blown.

A real eye-opener for me. Imagine a 15 year-old kid diving into those waters.

Good call.

Jc , I read somewhere recently that with the the advances in medicine and science that anyone 40 and below has a very good chance at beating death , that is if they can afford the treatment . Who wants to live forever ?

I don't. 200 (healthy) years seems like a good length, however.

I've loved my career, and I've done it for almost 40 years. At the same time, I had a couple other interests I was tempted to explore. It would be kind of nice to have 30-40 years with each of them, as well.

Even at twice the normal life span, I'd still need a deadline or 'expiration date' to give meaning/importance to my daily time.

"Time's up.
Did you do well with what you were given?"

The idea I proposed here is nothing new. It has been written about by many before me, and could more or less be considered mainstream now.

My somewhat novel contribution or interpretation is applying it far beyond technology. Though the technology is a key driver behind that change.

Victimhood is the root of most all things that are rotting this once great country...it worked so well that the drivecis for everyone to find their niche as a under represented minority to deflect from responsibility and blame everyone for everything and seek approval and security from in-natural entities.

There is a pretty easy and good way to take a look at this..

Do a YouTube search for the Future Shock movie. Orsen Wells put it together.

I remember seeing in 1972 or about then. It is fascinating, and I have shown it to a number of people when technology and lifestyle issues become a discussion point.

I have to say that Tofler nailed the concept.

This isn't what I had in mind when I made this thread. That said, I do think there is some truth to this. In fact, victimhood mentality has become so ingrained in our culture that a return to strict responsibility might actually seem... a little weird.

It’s unlikely the 21st century will come anywhere near the technological advancements of the 20thy century.

In 1900 no one in the complete history of mankind had ever come close to controlled flight through the air. It was unforeseeable. Not even 100 feet.

No one in their wildest dreams could have imagined a man walking on the moon less than 70 years later.

That was a completely unforeseeable new technology in 1900.

It would be like - I don’t know - man traveling at faster than the speed of light this century.

(For instance, going to Mars has been a foreseeable technology since well before the year 2000)

Architectural and civil engineering advancements were mind blowing in the 20th century.

From Wikipedia:



In the 1900s, "things got pretty weird." Imagine a well-informed person in 1900 seeing this.

lol just wait until quantum computing. You haven't seen crap.

Oh I have seen lots of crap in my day.

Fascinating post. I enjoy your pictorial narratives.

The 20th century is a good example of the concept, on a larger timescale than what has been discussed here. That is to say, more technological advancements happened in the 20th century than any century before it, and it's not even close.

Your mistake is thinking this process will slow when it will only increase, and increase exponentially at that.

Exponential growth-- it is that concept where you can start with a penny, double it every day and at the end of the month, you have millions of dollars. That's where we are heading with technology, but we still only have a few bucks.