DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Trading the #1 pick.

No. That was simple, why all the other post

Maybe you should ask Green Bay, the Patriots, Atlanta or any team who uses the pass to set up the run. You seem to act as if it only works one way. That's simply not true. Teams with great RB's can use the run to set up the pass. Teams with great QB's can use the pass to set up the run.

As of now we don't have a running game or a passing game. Which one we fix first doesn't have to work the way you're suggesting it does. However, franchise QB's are a rare thing to find. Nobody in their right mind would draft a RB if they believe that a franchise QB is staring them in the face.

Last year we used the run and pass to set up the punt.

I believe this is about the most accurate assessment I've seen of the 2016 season. lol

You forgot we also used the run and pass to set up the red zone interception.

FYI...last year was 2017, not 2016.

It works for them because they have grizzled veterans at QB who know what they're doing and teams are forced to focus on them. What they don't have is a rookie QB that's being asked to do everything because they don't have a run game.

Some of the biggest success stories of QBs from the draft are guys that were plugged into systems with an established running game. Big Ben, Russell Wilson, etc. Teams were forced to respect the run, and therefore gave the rookie QB time to learn and grow as a QB.

Even in the video with Greg Cosell, he said that it takes a good FOUR years for a QB to get comfortable in the NFL. That blows up pretty quick when he's blitzed every down because the defense doesn't have to worry about the rush. His confidence gets shot and he never lives up to his potential.

Rushing on the other hand is pretty, plug-and-play. If you get a rookie running-back, you can start him right off the bat and give your offense some actual dimension. Of the rookie QBs that start right away, are the focus of the offense and are actually successfu ... oddly enough, many of them are RUSHING QBs. Defenses have to respect both the rush and pass out of them.

And they were darn good at it, don't forget that part.

I guess the Subject of "Trading the #1 pick" got lost somewhere along the line ...

I think our new OC will run the ball. We just have to give him someone that can do so. At the moment we don't have much of anything. If we give him a stud RB he will use him like he used Bell. He also ran the ball a lot when he as with the Cards IIRC.

When Todd Haley was with the Cardinals, in 2007 and 2008, they ranked 25th and 32nd in rushing attempts. In Kansas City, as the head coach in 2009, 2010, and 2011, he ran the ball a lot and was pretty successful. With Pittsburgh, 2012-2017, they basically were in the bottom half of the league in rushing every year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/HaleTo0.htm

If we can score points like they did through the air, I'll forgive a low run game.
Plus they could still run it when needed.

I can't read that chart at all. Is the ranking based on yards or attempts?

Do we really think that the Browns want more picks in this year's draft? Hard to bring in so many rookies.
I would think that a lot of the compensation would be in future drafts
JMO

Trading the pick to the Giants because there is a bidding war for Barkley, sure. That means we still get the QB we want at #2. Why not?

Unlikely, but might be possible.

Right, on another board they're convinced the Bills will offer 20, 21 and a future 1st for #4 so they can come up for a QB. Why would the Browns want 20 & 21?

Sure, it's more picks, but I think I'd rather get Chubb, Barkley or Fitzpatrick then whatever is sitting at 20 & 21 (although, I don't know how deep this draft is, maybe nobody truly does right now).

It would take a kings ransom for me to trade out of one. I have my franchise QB already on the card to turn in and no team would pay the price I would ask.

If you're floating it out there that you want to trade out of the pick, and if the Giants are all about Barkley... then it would be a big risk, but a big gain to trade with the Giants, but then you'd just be greedy.

#4 pick is where it gets a bit more interesting for me. Variables such as who's been picked, who wants to trade (how far down they are), and most important... what they're offering comes into play. If (more like when) we take 'our guy' at QB at 1, and 2-3 picks are Barkley and Minkah, and a team in the top 10 wants to jump up and grab a QB... I could definitely do that. I'd be most interested in a young vet at a position of need or 1st rounders subsequent drafts.

Im getting too old watching us plan for next years picks. With all the fire power we have right now this team should be able to take a HUGE leap this year. If this front office cant make it happen now then they never will. Im tired of next year already.. Kevin Costner could have fielded a better team than the past idiots.

j/c:

Sashi's gone. The Browns have a ton of picks. We don't need to be trading down again and settling for dudes like Corey Coleman.

Draft impact players.

You and I agree, but if I'm nitpicking, there are impact players to had throughout the first round. And conversely, there are busts at the top of the draft too. If there aren't any impact players below the top 10, why bother drafting anyone in the 2nd, 3rd and so on?

I understand both sides. We need impact players. No question.

I also like stocking some future picks. I'd be open to trading down out of 4 a few slots....but just a few. I don't want to go from #4 down to 20. #4 to #7-8 would be about as far as I would like to drop.

I agree Vers. Let's stay right where we are with our 1st 5 picks and draft the best players that are there. We have a golden opportunity so let's take it. Also, how do you add your name to a posting that you like? If anyone can tell me I'd appreciate it.

It’s not where you pick players, it’s who you pick. You can get impact players all up and down the first round, even in the second. Not saying we should or shouldn’t trade out of 1or 4 but I don’t agree that the only impact players can be found in the top 5. I know that’s not a popular opinion on here but I think there’s truth to it. I’ll wait and see what Dorsey does, if he trades down, fine, if he stays put, ok, if he moves up, ok again. I don’t see us constantly trading down with Dorsey, I will add that.

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I wasn’t really saying if you move completely out of the first or anything, my point was that guys drafted at the middle of round one or even bottom of round one/top of round two can be just as impactful a player as someone taken in the top five. It’s just a matter of picking the guys who will have that impact.


And yes historically our picks haven’t been impactful, but have Dorsey’s picks been impactful?

Historically the lower the pick the lesser the odds of success are. So there's that.

I strongly agree with you on this. It's one reason I am always happy to see us take and use every pick beyond the second to move back up to the second. It's usually the most reliable place to get starters on the o-line except LT.

What are the percentages between a top 5 pick or say the bottom 5 in the first round? I’m asking cause I don’t know what it is. Is it a big difference?

I did find this which is a bit interesting.....


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com...rs-irrationally


I couldn’t find anything comparing success rate between high, middle, and late first round picks.

It's almost always a better decision to trade down. . . unless you can get a QB that will be good on your team for a long time.

The bottomline is this -- when you are basically guessing as to which players will be good, it is better to have more picks than less picks.

I have a friend that's a big Jets fan. Last night I was speculating about Kirk Cousins going to the Vikings in Free Agency, and then seeing three QBs going 1-2-3 in the draft. The Browns' phone would be ringing off the hook for that 4th pick. Denver and the Jets might sell the farm, their first born and anything else just to get a QB at that point.

I was joking with him: "At the number 4 spot ... There's been a trade! With the 4th pick, the Cleveland Jets select ..."

This chart might be helpful to you:



It is included in the article written by Kevin Meers. Kevin Meers currently works in an NFL front office his title is Director, Research and Strategy.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

(I post this article basically every year.)

Fantastic article, thank you.

Although it did make the slight mistake of using Josh McCown as an example thinking he'd retire or play in the UFL, but that's a reasonable outlier.

With the moves the Browns made today I think they are going to keep the pick now and take Barkley.