DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Josh Rosen

I didn't say you said Mayfield was inaccurate.

You insinuated that those saying Mayfield is more accurate are solely looking at the statistics. I'm replying to that remark and simply saying that's not the case.

All the talk on Rosen's concussion collection, none on his throwing arm shoulder surgery...

https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Article/UCLA-QB-Josh-Rosen-Undergoes-Shoulder-Surgery-74949067

Didn't look like a MAJOR issue, but he still missed half the season because of it.

A shoulder injury for a QB. That seals it. Guys always suck afterwards.

Many, Jimmy G was horrible this year. Drew Brees? LOL...the guy never threw another good pass after he hurt his shoulder in Sand Diego. Romo? He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn after hurting his shoulder. Jameis Winston is done now that he hurt his shoulder. And I heard the Packers were cutting Aaron Rodgers because he injured his shoulder last year. Andrew Luck is also getting cut because he hurt his shoulder. And man, did you see Rosen's pro day? He couldn't throw the ball more than 10 yards because his shoulder is so bad.

Goodness..............I think anyone who has actually watched football know that QBs suffer shoulder injuries all the time. Here is a quote from an article about shoulder injuries in the NFL:


https://www.drdavidgeier.com/ac-joint-shoulder-injuries-nfl-football/

Has everyone noticed QB preferences seem to be like politics and religion? Almost impossible to change someones mind. Like Michael Douglas said about what it means to be an american in the movie "The American President"
'You want free speech? Let's see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, and who's standing center stage and advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours.'

Nothing like being overly dramatic. He said he didn't think it was a major deal, just a concern. His concussions scare me more.

LOL on the overly dramatic comment. Have you read this board?

Get lost.

Vers you are exactly right! The shoulder injury history is not even on my mind when it comes to Rosen. It shouldn't be. If the surgery was happening now, it could be discussed, but the fact that it was in the past, and he has proven it to not factor in, it is gone.

Injuries happen to all players. How they come back is always the question. The fact that he came back and proved to be just as good as he was before makes it a non issue for me. Just like a situation like Nick Chubb's knee injury isn't a concern for me. He came back and proved he can play on it.

That's exactly what your post was. He said nothing even remotely close to the comments you made. Rosen had a shoulder injury that caused him to miss significant time. It isn't the end of the world, and it probably won't matter in the long run, but it is a concern, as well as his concussion history.

The injuries may never matter, but they may come back to haunt a team as well. That's what the team doctors have to decide, and luck will factor in as well, as it will with every player.

You misread his post, but that's okay. I get where you are coming from and it's why I usually have you on ignore. Time to do so again.

What did I misread? He pointed out the shoulder issue and said he didn't think it was a "MAJOR" deal. Please enlighten me.

What he said and what you said were 2 completely different things.

I'm honestly not trying to argue, but just pointing out that what he said is true in the sense that Rosen has more injury concern than the other QBs and the team doctors will never to weigh them.

Vers there is nothing all that dramatic in this post he made. It's just a offhand comment. Like he said it doesn't look like a major issue but it's still an issue when combined with his concussion history. I mean at some point when the injuries start to stack up it becomes a worry that he is a bit fragile.

That doesn't mean he is fragile but that it's something that is worrisome. That's all and nothing more. If the Browns don't draft him at #1 it will be because of his injury history and nothing else IMHO.

Well we know he SHOULD be taken early but who knows with all the smoke that gets blown around this time of year.

There are some who think Kaepernick is not playing in the NFL because he used the NFL as leverage for his protests and became a distraction. If true, do you think some teams have the same reservations about Rosen? Afterall he's been vocal about President Trump and paying college athletes.

Everyone seems to think his combine interviews answered any questions he has about his love for the game. Afterall, that seemed to be the question with Rosen. But has his response really answer the question? Actions speak louder than words.

To me when Dorsey says he wants football players, he wants players who LOVE football. Even though he says he loves football, Rosen is a guy who could use his fame for some political movement he believes strongly in and become a distraction. A player like Mayfield LOVES football. Football is #1 to him and he isn't going to use his football fame to express his political views, it's so far from his mind. Baker is more worried about how he is going to beat his opponent this week than whether or not Trump is good President. Whereas Rosen has already shown he's not afraid to speak up.

I think for this reason alone is why Baker could be the pick over Rosen...and why Rosen could fall. Rosen may be fine, yes, but there's an inherent risk in drafting him. I think this could be why Dorsey allegedly said he wouldn't draft Rosen back before he had a job. He said this before he met the kid all the while we know Rosen has "perfect" mechanics... We did know about his political stances, however, when Dorsey allegedly said this.

And there was nothing "dramatic" in my reply. Sheesh.

J/c

I view QB evaluation as a process of evaluating/researching gathering information and comparing it against a baseline and/or the other prospects.
Its something I enjoy doing and look forward to discussing the prospects. All of them. I don't think it necessary to knock one prospect because you prefer one prospect. Liking one prospect doesn't automatically make another prospect a bust.

Also, i don't give much thought to aspects of the evaluation that i consider unknowable. So i leave the off the field unverified media opinion of the prospects personality etc.

I view the QBs in terms of categories I have about 11: accuracy, arm strength, production, playmaking, injury(durability), size etc. And rank them on a 1-5 scale.

The conversations going on in this thread that i'm replying to are the accuracy and injury questions.

My question to the thread is where would you rank Rosen and the other prospects in these 2 categories?

Accuracy:

Allen-2.5
Darnold-3
Jackson-3
Mayfield-4
Rosen-5

Injury:

Allen-2
Broken collar bone freshmen year forced medical redshirt
Injured shoulder misses 2? games junior year

Darnold-5
No injuries that I've seen (if someone knows different please let me know)

Jackson-5
No injuries that I've seen (if someone knows different please let me know)

Mayfield-5
No injuries that I've seen (if someone knows different please let me know)

Rosen-2
Sophmore played 6 games before missing the rest of season
2 concussion Junior year

Vers,
I've got a question for you regarding Rosen's concussion history. I haven't heard you specifically weigh in on that, and I apologize if I've just missed it. I'm only specifically asking you because I know you're very vocal about how he's your guy. And that's cool. I like him too, but would appreciate your opinion on the concussions as they give me pause about drafting him. I want some opinions specifically on his concussions because that is the only "flaw" I see in him. And do we think it's a concern for NFL doctors? Anyone else can weigh in on this too.

FYI, I know none of you know me as I just registered, but I've been reading this board for a long long time, and am familiar with you all, so I'm not really new.

Another question, for the thread:

What do you view as Rosen's weaknesses?

I think he has a good but not great arm. I believe he plays with tremendous balance with his footwork in the pocket. I saw him hold the ball to long which is why he took some of those big hits. Easy dump downs were available but he held it waiting for more and got himself clobbered. I thought early on he struggled mightly with accuracy on the deep throws but came a long way with deep throws and he is the deadly accurate in that 8-20 yard range.

He actually reminds me a lot of Peyton Manning. He just has to learn that time count in his head. at 4 the ball needs to be checked down or heading out of bounds.

His flaws? He is definitely not the mobile athlete that Darnold is. He has been dinged up from time to time. I fear that he is limited in his upside. He reminds me a little bit of Teddy Bridgewater in that sense, who I really liked but I always felt like Teddy was limited physically.

The reason you hear so much about the “personality” issues with Rosen is because if you’re trying to pick apart his game you’re going to have a hard time.

I'll reply in depth later...but i mentioned my thoughts on his flaws earlier.

Good posts and good discussion. I hope its okay to discuss Rosen's flaws here, lol. **I actually plan on asking about the other QB prospects flaws in their threads as well.**

I think having two concussions is a valid concern. I've stated that several times, but I understand how you could have missed it because I talk so damn much. LOL

I think he has another area of concern and it doesn't involve some of the crap that posters keep bringing up. I might as well talk about it here because I see ed asked about Rosen's weaknesses.

I think he tries to force the ball into tight windows more than I would like. I would classify that under making questionable decisions at times. The NFL is a lot faster and that could lead to too many picks.

You want a guy who trusts his arm and is willing to take a chance to make big plays, but you can't take too many chances. That can be coached out of him.

I do think Josh will do better w/an offensive minded HC rather than defensive minded one, because you can't suffocate his play-making ability w/a too conservative nature.

Btw------I had the same feeling about Jimmy G when he came out. In fact, those two guys remind me of one another in a few important areas. Different qbs, but both possess a few important characteristics.


Edit: I forgot to welcome you to the posting world. I look forward to reading more of your thoughts.

Thanks. I think come draft day I'm going to celebrate the QB we take no matter who it is. And I'll probably convince myself that it was the best one to take after reading all the fluff articles and Draft grades LOL.

But here's my thoughts, which also fits a bit into weaknesses:

Rosen - If it wasn't for his concussions, he'd be everyone's #1 QB, certainly mine. I get that he tries to force some throws and I actually just read that somewhere recently, but he also didn't have much to work with in terms of talent around him. So I'll give him a pass.

Darnold - I just don't know. His turnovers bother me. He was severely over matched against Ohio State and he wasn't safe with the football. He will most likely be over matched against other teams as a member of the Browns, and I don't want to see him making similar mistakes.

Mayfield - If he were 6'4" he would be everyone's #1 QB. He seems to be accurate and a leader. I especially liked a quote from a teammate of his that said "I'd follow that guy anywhere." He also beat Ohio State, and did not have the same issues Darnold did. I know this is not a great measuring tool, how well a QB plays against my buckeyes, but it's something I can see and is tangible to my evaluation.

So I'm at a loss on who my favorite is between these 3. I just don't know. I see everyone else has their favorite and I'm sitting here perplexed. I want one, but am terrified we'll get it wrong. Losers mentality me thinks.

How would you rate/compare his arm to the other prospects?

Some related info:


Passer rating top 5 QBs on passes 20+ yards

Gp.

How would you rate/compare his mobility to the other prospects? How would you likewise rate his injury/durability?

He is in line with Goff and Winston to speak in terms of recently drafted QB’s. He may be somewhere between Paxton Lynch and Winston/ Goff athletically. He performed better than I thought he would at the combine but sometimes that can be deceiving, a lot of the numbers would suggest he is close to Deshaun Watson but anyone watching the games knows that isn’t true.

His limited athleticism is decent but certainly not something he’s going to want to showcase.


Durability is hard to comment on. His offensive line was trash, I mean really terrible. He has had some injuries but nothing major. Both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson tore their ACL’s last year and I don’t think anyone is anything but excited about those guys. Injuries are like Facilities Maintenance, you can plan all you want but thing break when they break, or they don’t. Impossible to predict.

I agree on those 2 points.

For the me the biggest flaw I have of Rosen is his ability to make plays when pressure forces him out of the pocket. Most of the other QBs prospects in this group have a superior ability to handle quick pressure by avoiding a rusher and extending plays the play out of the pocket away from pressure and either making a throw or running. Allen, Baker, Darnold and Jackson are all levels ahead of Rosen in this area.

NFL defenses are bigger, faster, stronger and all the prospects will face more pressure then they did in college.
Bill Walsh said [estimated] that 1 in 5 dropbacks ends up in a scramble...while i'm not sure its that high but suffice it say that QBs face a lot of pressure and have the skill to turn pressure that could result in sack or incompletion or worse turns into a positive play.

Like you the injury/durability area is one where Rosen wouldn't rate as highly as some of the other prospects.
And just to be clear, i'm not projecting or predicting. I'm merely evaluating/ranking and compared based on college.
I'm a numbers guy and if I had to quantify those aspects numerically:

Mourgrym, here's how I would comp the arm strength of the top prospects:

Arm strength:
Allen=5
Darnold=3
Mayfield=3
Jackson=4.5
Rosen=4

BpG I track the mobility in 2 areas Athleticism/Escapability and Playmaking:

Ath/Esc:
Allen=4
Darnold=4
Mayfield=4
Jackson=5
Rosen=2

Playmaking:
Allen=4
Darnold=4
Mayfield=4
Jackson=5
Rosen=1

I completely understand why creating would be so low for Rosen. It's a matter of philosophy when it comes down to it, I don't want my QB's running, I want them to stay in the pocket and orchestrate the offense.

His "Creativity" so to speak is definitely the lower if not the lowest of the top 5-6 guys in this class. Can't really be argued tbh.

Daniel Jeremiah states what I believe concisely:





But he isn't going to get on the edge and beat DE's for the sticks.

When I say escaping/playmaking i'm not talking about running though. I'm talking about turning plays that would be sacks or incompletions to worse into positive plays.

Vers,
How much of the 'taking too many chances' issue do you think will be rectified just by putting some talent and playmakers around him? I get the feeling that he took a lot of chances because he felt the whole team on his shoulders.

I really don't know the answer to that, oober. It's a good question, but it's hard for me to predict things that I haven't seen.

The same goes for me endorsing a qb to be able to read coverages and to go through full progressions. Hard to predict when they have never been asked to. Rosen is the one guy who has done it. The others have not.

I don't want to start another fight, but I want to caution posters when a certain poster is setting the criteria and ignoring an essential aspect of what makes a successful NFL qb.

I mean............arm strength, playmaking, and athleticism are the set criteria from one poster. However, accuracy, reading coverages, pocket presence, mechanics, intelligence, being able to play under center, being a true pocket passer, etc are being ignored.

I also have to say that giving Rosen a "1" for playmaking is a joke. Yeah, he might not run for 60 yards, but he makes all kinds of plays from the pocket. You know, just like the top qbs in the NFL do.

It's all about what type of qb you like. Some guys like qbs like Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Jimmy G, etc and some guys like qbs like RGIII, Tyrod Taylor, Kizer, Kap, etc.

I won't say who is right or wrong. I will just say that we all have our opinions.

For what it's worth, I'm fine with your response Vers. I have been a member of this board long enough to respect the opinions of nearly everybody (since at the end of the day that's what they are and why we're here).

The counter I would have to "QBs with shoulder injuries are the norm". Luck has missed 17 games now due to one. Should he be cut? No. I think he's a phenomenal QB and hope he has no issues whatsoever and comes back just as good as he was before he left.

All the facts around Rosen's injury though, say it is/was no big deal.

The comment about my football knowledge is BS though. I may not post as much as you guys because I mostly like to read and observe (and sometimes troll...sorry), but I've WATCHED plenty of football in my lifetime. I understand many injuries happen and people persevere. I'm still an athlete (somewhat overweight and old now) but I still compete even with all the injuries and these guys are paid to overcome it, I just like competing.

How this all ties together...I don't think Rosen is a Luck (or a Brees). I may be 100% wrong and I'll be okay with that.

I think I'd have 3 categories, but they're based more on style than results.

Brady/Manning- Rosen
Rodgers/Jimmy G- Mayfield/Darnold
RGIII/Vick- Jackson

They are stylistically different, but I'm not sure the results will follow the styles as you delineated there.

I think the different styles can be effective. It's just a matter of fit and luck with health.

I do agree that there are more criteria that should be included, at the same time I don't think anyone said that the three previously mentioned were the only three. I think they were just the first three as some of the others you mentioned take longer (or are harder) to evaluate.

Hey Triple. Thanks for the cool response.

I guess I need to clarify some things.

1. I wasn't trying to insinuate that you don't have football knowledge. I promise. And I think you know me well enough that I don't back down from conflicts. I promise you that was not my intent.

2. I used your post to address a number of posters, media members, etc who have expressed similar sentiments. I did not clarify that and I can see how my post may have come across as an attack on you. Again, I promise that was not my intent.

3. I don't have a problem w/you not thinking that Rosen is a quality qb. He hasn't done squat in the NFL yet and we all have various opinions.

4. I now understand that my post wasn't received in the manner I intended, but it was intended to be a mixture of facts and humor. I thought the comments about Rodgers and Jimmy G being cut would clue people in that I was trying to be humorous, but the first guy to reply to me was Cle, who spends a ton of time trying to pick fights w/me. I will say that I do think [know] that shoulder injuries are rather common for qbs [and btw---Josh Allen's shoulder injury was far worse than Rosen's, but we don't talk about that] and I was trying to throw some humor in w/the Rodgers and Jimmy G comments. I'm sorry my intent was misconstrued.

But.....I think you are a good poster and I hope there are no hard feelings between us. I promise you that I was not belittling you.

Has anyone done a in depth review on all the top QB's as far as who they had to throw to the last 2-3 years ? And worse yet..what kind of system?

I know a few of the receivers they had but not really studied all of them in depth to see if they were scrubs or highly rated guys that are or will be in the NFL.. My point being.. Did Darnold have good hands guys compared to Rosen having me or my wife catching ? Allen.. Mayfield..? A LOT to study before we can just look at raw percentages.

No.

I will tell you that I do a ton of research. Not only for the draft prospects [QB and RB this year] but also about play calling, pass to run ratio, down and distance calls, etc...........but man, there are so many topics that you just can't find the answer to. Too freaking generic and not specific enough.

Vers- No problem at all man, thanks for the reply.

AABF just peaked my interest though...a few interesting links.


https://www.cfbfilmroom.com/2018/01/27/usc-qb-sam-darnold-2017-passing-chart/

Darnold (not his thread but relevant to your question...seemed to have an AMAZING WR corp...5% dropped passes and 30.2% contested catch rate but a super high INT rate and potential INT rate (dropped passes from the defense))


Meanwhile Rosen...

I can't find stats for UCLA, there are a few articles from the start of the 2017 season discussing how the team is working hard to improve on their drops. I'm not entirely sure that's a curable thing though if it was a team wide issue.

Found this article interesting though - https://www.dailynews.com/2017/12/25/how-will-uclas-josh-rosen-era-be-remembered/

"So far, from 2015-17, the Bruins have gone 8-5, 4-8 and 6-6 pending the Cactus Bowl result. Rosen missed six games of his sophomore year due to a shoulder injury, and currently has a 17-13 record as a starter."

If I had to choose right now....I'd be struggling with Rosen vs. Mayfield, I think the Jets are really looking at Mayfield.

Darnold scares the crap out of me, Allen seems like a reach at #1.

Allen has that epic arm it's a 10
Jackson isn't far behind but he can't give it consistently with accuracy.

Rosen is probably next with darnold and Mayfield just behind him with Rudolph bringing up the rear.

Mayfield was the one that surprised me. Stronger arm than I thought.