DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Josh Allen #2

I agree with most of your post except I can see the case for taking him at #1 if he's "the guy". The accuracy issue isn't much of an issue for me personally because I think there are correctable mechanical issues that will greatly improve that aspect of his game, and I think pre & post snap coaching, time in system, and NFL calibre WRs will also improve that aspect. The one shortcoming that concerns me most is his propensity to see/throw instead of relying on timing and anticipation. He does have the gun to make it work but it is another factor that affects accuracy and may consistently get him into trouble when faced with the speedy DBs and tight windows in the NFL. Having the ability to see/throw/complete is a great asset, one that will factor into the decision to take him, but relying on it soley would be detrimental.

We can agree to disagree on whether or not a QB with Allen's resume warrants the #1 overall selection. If the Browns did it, I would understand and wouldn't have a meltdown. I would expect the cleanest prospect to go #1 overall and although Allen has the most potential I don't think he's the cleanest prospect.

Although accuracy and comp % are linked I separate them. Allen like all prospects is gonna have to become a much better player in the NFL then he was in college. I think Allen enters the league as the with the a much higher propensity to miss throws then the other QB prospects in this draft class. I don't have an issue with his accuracy; I just think it needs to be judged and compared in the right context and for me that part of his grade is low.

I am certain his comp% will increase because Wyoming passing game featured some ridiculous throws as staples of their offense eg. 15+ yards deep outs thrown from the opposite hash to the far sideline.

I'm not sure you'll can coach anticipation into a QB. I'm not sure if/how much Jay Cutler, Cam Newton and Joe Flacco have improved their ability to throw with anticipation. The offense you built around Allen will have to account for that.

Well stated, Edromeo.

I posted this in the other thread its a good listen:

https://player.fm/series/nfl-move-the-sticks-with-daniel-jeremiah-bucky-brooks/ep-281-josh-allen-360



This is the shorter version:

http://www.giants.com/videos/videos/MTS-Best-of-Josh-Allen-360/08e64643-d310-4fec-a9b9-f64954c6599c

Yeah, I don't know that we really disagree. You're saying he shouldn't be taken at #1 but could be and I'm saying I can understand why he would be. Lol. I appreciate your takes.

Excellent posts. I agree with both of your assessments.

Thanks for posting, fun listen. Good stuff from Palmer and the other trainer. Love hearing about the improved mechanics, and the point about the lack of talent around him is very valid. Great kid too. He has so much to offer in terms of physical gifts, smarts & upside potential it makes me want to draft him.

Should the Jets be afraid of Josh Allen's low completion percentage?

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/p...tion-percentage

The weekly New York Jets mailbag focuses on a couple of hot-button issues surrounding the team:


Matt_Woodrum
@MattWoodrum3
@RichCimini why are so many people scared of J. Allen heading to the jets? Completion % means nothing. Look at Favre and Montana’s completion % in college. Absolutely comparable! I think he would be a great fit for the jets. #jetsmail

12:43 PM - Mar 29, 2018
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@RichCimini: Matt, you sound like Mel Kiper Jr., who recently said "stats are for losers" when referring to Josh Allen's 56.2 career completion percentage at Wyoming. Mel is a huge Allen supporter, as you probably know.

For the record, Brett Favre was 52.4 in college, Joe Montana 52.0, but the game has changed a lot since then. The game is made for passing, and completion percentages should be higher nowadays. So, yes, I disagree with your comparison. By the way, neither Favre nor Montana was a top draft pick. Favre was a second-rounder, Montana a third. When you're picking as high as the Jets (No. 3), every blemish becomes magnified and deserves intense scrutiny.

Allen's percentage is concerning. Mel believes it's due, in part, to not having as many "layups" (short passes) as the other top prospects. I did the research via ESPN Stats & Information, and that is not true. In fact, Allen had more short passes than the others. Consider: 30 percent of his attempts traveled zero to five air yards, more than UCLA's Josh Rosen (29 percent), USC's Sam Darnold (28 percent) and Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield (18 percent).

Did Allen take more downfield shots than the others, lowering his completion percentage? Not really. The breakdown of attempts that went 25 or more air yards: Darnold (12 percent), Mayfield (12 percent), Allen (11 percent) and Rosen (5 percent).

Was Allen victimized by a lot of drops? Not really. Wyoming's drop percentage was 4.2 percent, a fraction higher than the national average (4.1). The guy who really got burned by drops was Rosen; UCLA's drop percentage was 6.3. Oklahoma was 3.6 and USC was 3.0.

I will say this about Allen: His accuracy was sharper in the postseason, meaning the Potato Bowl, the Senior Bowl and his scouting combine/pro days workouts. He has been working with quarterback guru Jordan Palmer, and scouts believe he has cleaned up his mechanical issues. That is encouraging for the Jets, who absolutely love his arm talent.

________________

and we've seen the theories around these boards as well.

so, to recap, he had more short throws than others, didn't suffer from as many drops as others, and didn't throw the ball downfield more than others.

why is he being considered as a top 5 prospect, again?

potential? odd because when i mentioned lamar's potential, guys like bone said i couldnt do that.

Rosen
Lamar
Darnold
Baker
Rudolph
some other dudes
Allen

He also threw a significantly less number of passes than any of the other QBs.

Allen - 270
Rosen - 452
Darnold - 480
Mayfield - 404
Jackson - 430
Rudolph - 489

Interesting.

Happy Egg Day.

The closer we get, the more I think that Allen is the pick.

I'm starting to feel the same.

It would be the Browns thing to do. To have the #1 overall pick and then draft the worst QB in the draft.

Is it just a feeling or is there a reason you think this?

IMO the 2 biggest assets I look for are accuracy and anticipation.

Package all that with size and you got your franchise guy. You can add in leadership, speed, pocket presence, and arm strength but without accuracy as the #1 attribute I pass.

Bud Shaw's Sports Spin

Wyoming QB Josh Allen is a small town guy with a big-time arm -- Bud Shaw

April 2, 2018

By Bud Shaw, cleveland.com


CLEVELAND, Ohio - The farmland near Josh Allen's hometown is known as the Cantaloupe Capital of the World.

In that part of California's Central Valley more recognized for bountiful crops than for cultivating NFL quarterbacks, the town of Firebaugh, population 8,311, is located 20 miles from the nearest freeway.

Its claim to fame is subjective, for now. The sandlot scene from Kenny Rogers' music video "The Greatest" was filmed in Firebaugh. That's not a claim to fame as much as it is Wikipedia notoriety.

The town is also known for the Farmer's Daughter restaurant, once owned and operated by Allen's mother and semi-famous for its Godzilla burger. LaVonne Allen sold off the restaurant when the family began traveling to watch University of Wyoming football games.

The high school gym is named after Allen's grandfather, Buzz. Josh's sister is the leading scorer for the Firebaugh girls basketball team. "A scoring machine," a former Firebaugh High coach calls Makenna Allen. The school opened in 1976. Its colors are appropriately patriotic. The mascot is an eagle. School enrollment is predominantly Hispanic.

"California is a monster, recruiting-wise," said Wyoming offensive coordinator Brent Vigen, one of the few talent evaluators to find his way to town to meet the Allen family after watching Josh on tape.


"There is a long long list of typical places for a recruiter to stop. Firebaugh is not one of them. The college recruiters who knew where Firebaugh was before Josh was a pretty small (group)."

Many of the young people in Firebaugh have experience working what Bill Magnusson, Allen's high school football coach, calls "the most productive farmland on Planet Earth."

If the 6-5, 235-pound Allen looks like the classic American farm boy, the casting call is not that much of a stretch. But it wasn't always the case. A delayed growth spurt helped keep him below the recruiting radar in a outpost town.

All sports were Allen's passion

"(We had) a 2,000-acre operation, my dad owned a thousand acres of it," Allen said at the NFL combine. "Strictly row crops of cotton, cantaloupe and wheat. During the summers, (my chores were) helping my dad move irrigation pipe, picking cotton, picking weeds in the cotton field, driving disc tractors, whatever the case may be.

"It wasn't an everyday thing and my dad kind of experienced that throughout his high school career. Our out was sports and that's what we did. We stayed competitive year-round to try to stay off the field as much as we can, but we did help out quite a bit."


Allen played football, baseball and basketball in high school. In some ways, his decision not to specialize may have cost him with recruiters. Firebaugh's basketball coach, Jim McCall, coached two generations of Allens over his 43 years on the job and says Josh "finally just blossomed when he got to focus on one sport."

Basketball gave way to baseball which gave way to training for football and then the football season itself. Magnusson remembers Allen climbing out of his truck with friends to lift weights after a day in the field, dirty from the work. He'd stay late, then rise at 5 a.m. and do it all over again the next summer day.

"He had his advanced degree from the FFA (Future Farmer's Association) said Magnusson. "He comes from a family of winners with a great work ethic.

"A lot of Americans don't get up as early as some of these kids get up in the summer. If I were a football coach in the NFL, I'd be looking for a guy like Josh. Especially if I'm the Cleveland Browns."

Well, funny you should say that.

Firebaugh is the kind of town where you can someday soon imagine a sign planted at the town outskirts: "Home of Josh Allen, NFL Quarterback." No tourism dollars to reap, the motivation, as is the custom across America, would be unbridled small-town pride.


Or, if the Browns agree with the early projection of draftnik Mel Kiper Jr., maybe the sign will be even more specific: "Home of Josh Allen, No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft."


From junior college to Laramie

As an overlooked player from a small farming town, Allen accepted one of the only scholarships offered him, and it required a year of junior college for him to get even that. Indiana showed interest after Allen threw for 2,055 yards and 25 TDs at Reedley J.C. (where one of the coaches was married to a cousin of Allen's). But the Hoosiers didn't offer him a scholarship.

Maybe when your breakout games are against Gavilan and Merced (470 yards, seven TDs in that one), word still travels but not so fast or so far and wide as you might like. But Wyoming and Eastern Michigan offered Allen scholarships and Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl and offensive coordinator Brent Vigen heard about this "special player" at Reedley and visited Firebaugh to find out more.

Bohl and Vigen came from North Dakota State where Carson Wentz starred. It didn't take them long to see similarities, not only in size and mobility. They saw both quarterbacks throw live for the first time on their first day of practice with their respective schools.


"(Josh's) biggest attribute is his ability to extend plays with his legs and then be able to get the ball in different places while he's moving," Bohl recently told Pro Football Talk Live.

"When a quarterback can roll to his left and then throw the ball 60-some yards on a rope, that really stresses a defense."

Vigen says Allen is a "slightly" better athlete than Wentz with a "slightly" stronger arm. He gives Wentz the edge in touch. And, of course, if Allen can make the transition to the NFL half as well as Wentz did, everyone involved would be happy.

"You knew they had special arm talent," Vigen said. "Sometime the ball just sounds different with guys who can sling it."

One NFL team looking for a franchise quarterback will make the same determination coaches have made about Allen all along. They will take him knowing he's raw but betting that his arm, competitiveness, size and instincts will trump issues with mechanics and accuracy.

Allen did not start immediately at Reedley. At Wyoming, he sat (though not for long) behind Indiana transfer Cameron Coffman. There were flashes and then setbacks. In his first start for Wyoming, Allen broke his clavicle on a 24-yard run and was finished for the season.


"It happened 13 plays into (the game)," said Vigen. "It allowed him for the first time to focus on the weight room and that's where he made his biggest gains."

As a redshirt sophomore in 2016, Allen was terrific in a season-opening overtime win against Northern Illinois but followed that with a six-turnover game in a blowout loss to Nebraska.


A final season, but with flaws

He completed 56 percent of his passes, throwing for 28 TDs and 15 interceptions. Despite that completion percentage, the days of flying under the radar were over.

Allen came close to declaring for the draft after that season. Despite the Cowboys limping to the finish line with four losses in their last five games, Allen was projected as a high pick who would only become more coveted once talent evaluators saw his arm up close at the combine and workouts.

But after talking to Wentz over the phone, Allen decided to return to Laramie for one more season. He had moments in 2017 for sure. But he also suffered another injury (this one to his shoulder against Air Force), Overall, he didn't have the kind of season that dispelled concerns about his accuracy issues.

He completed 56.3 percent of his passes for 16 TDs and six interceptions. Vigen says there were mitigating factors. Dropped passes. Allen learned to throw the ball away.


"We were 7-3 when he got hurt against Air Force," Vigen said. "I thought he was playing as well as he'd played for us before the injury."

The Cowboys lost their all-time leading rusher, Brian Hall, after the 2016 season. Three top receivers declared for the draft. To his credit, Allen didn't use any of that as an excuse when asked about his poor completion percentage at the combine. He says he's improved in that area by dedicating himself to better footwork.

"(But) without live bullets and live action coming at you, we're not going to find that out until game time situations, whether that be in minicamp or any of those events leading up to the season," Allen said. "But I'm extremely confident in myself and we're working on it and there's no doubt in my mind that we'll figure it out."

Can dedication, leadership outweigh accuracy concerns?

Would the Browns bet on a strong-armed quarterback with accuracy issues one year after drafting DeShone Kizer and just one month after trading Kizer to the Green Bay Packers?

Allen's coaches point out he was responsible for helping turn programs around wherever he's been, that his teammates love him, that he keeps getting better. They point to the Senior Bowl in Mobile where he finished strong after a ragged start to the practice week.


Bill Magnusson, the Firebaugh coach who heard Allen's name for the first time when Allen was a little kid dominating swim meets, says he would be perfect for Cleveland. He brings up the movie Draft Day.

"Let's just say if Josh ever had a birthday party like in the movie, you wouldn't have to worry about teammates showing up. The offensive line would be there, the receivers would be there, the defensive guys. They'd all be there. Including the kicker."

"It's awesome," Allen said at the scouting combine in Indianapolis when asked about the support he felt growing up in such a small town. "I get texts and calls from everybody back home just wishing me luck.

"Sometimes it's a little crazy to get back to every single one of them. I can't thank them enough for everything they've done."

What the people of Firebaugh have done in addition to traveling to watch Wyoming play when geographically feasible is put the administration at Fresno State on notice for failing to recruit their favorite son.

Via the Casper Star Tribune in Wyoming comes this story: When new Fresno State head coach alum Jim Tedford was introduced in 2016 after three losing seasons, the school's athletic director wanted to put everyone at ease about Tedford as a recruiter. In a reference to Allen's status as The One Who Got Away, Tedford was introduced with the assurance that he "knows where Firebaugh is."


But it wasn't just Fresno State that didn't consider Allen a scholarship candidate. There was a consensus on that topic.

Magnusson says Allen, who was 6-3, 180 pounds, didn't target one sport while in high school. He also starred in basketball and baseball.

"We talked once his junior year and he said, "Coach do you think I should start lifting and eating like a horse?" said Magnusson. "I told him, no. Be a superstar. Do all you can do in sports you love to play."

So he did. And went unheralded. At least until now, or whenever his name is called in the NFL draft.

Allen wore a smile at the scouting combine in Indianapolis that suggested he's aware of the fantastic turn of events his football career has taken since his Firebaugh-Reedley JC days.

"I was begging teams to get me a scholarship, sending emails out and hoping to hear back from them and I got one opportunity," said Allen, beaming.

His next opportunity could come in Cleveland, which is more famous for a 0-16 Browns season than for having a franchise quarterback.

For now.


http://www.cleveland.com/budshaw/index.ssf/2018/04/wyoming_qb_josh_allen_is_a_sma.html

I am kind of thinking the same thing.

I want Rosen #1. I am OK with Darnold instead.

But I am starting to wonder if they go with Allen. If so, it strikes me as a pick to show you are the smartest guy in the room. It's a huge risk, all based on being able to coach this guy into an NFL QB. Outside of arm strength, which is not close to being the most important attribute, what about him is NFL ready, right now?

See, the closer we get, the more I think Darnold will be the pick.


Listening to Browns Daily and Nate Ulrich, they really don't see Allen as part of the conversation. And the guys on Browns Daily are actually inside the building. That's where they work. John Dorsey knocks on their window when he passes by and they're broadcasting

They seem to think it's Darnold or Baker Mayfield. That's what I'm thinking. I think Rosen, for whatever reason, isn't a fit.

There suffering from BBFS ... Battered Browns Fan Syndrome ... we’ve seen the same movie 20 times over the last 20 years ... BLOWN PICK after BLOWN PICK after BLOWN PICK ...

What we’ve done would seem statistically impossible ... just throwing darts at a board u would have done better than us ... seriously .... look at records since our return ... our record bares that out ...

Its what we expect ... can u blame us? ...

I have faith in these guys ... they all ready brought in TT ... best qb we’ve had since our return ... and i’m no fan of his ... he won’t hurt u with turnovers but he will have some very less than stellar overall performances ... his accuracy can be spotty ...

With that said we’ve got the best weapons by far and offensive coaches he’s ever worked with ... we can win with him this year while the rook sits and learns .... hes not the future but hes the best we’ve had since our return ... witch is more an indictment of how inept we’ve been than how good TT is ...

I trust these guys to get this pick right ... taking Allen wouldn’t be my choice and I wouldn’t be thrilled with it ... but i’ll trust them and hope like hell they got it right ...

I NO LONGER SUFFER FROM BBFS ....

It wouldn't shock me.

I don't think there is any way to know whether or not the Browns opinion of Allen has changed.

Allen is uber talented and has tons of potential.
There many flaws in his game.
I think he would be gamble to select with pick #1 or #4.

But another way to view Allen situation is through the lens of situation.
IF the Browns draft the QB based on potential think could view their current situation as an ideal place where they put on him on the shelf to sit and develop (ala Aaron Rodgers/Green Bay where a lot of the scouting department comes from) then they could do that for at least the entire season....maybe longer.

Josh Allen - QB - Player

MMQB's Peter King was told by a "friend of Cleveland GM John Dorsey" the Browns will select Wyoming QB Josh Allen with the No. 1 overall pick.

Source: MMQB

If this turns out to be true ... the honeymoon will come to a very quick end ... *LOL* .... this place would EXPLODE .... ...

Nothing to point at specifically. Just a combination of interviews, articles, and knowing Doresy likes a big arm.

Allen is the type of player that grows on GM's. He checks all the boxes. Accuracy is the only issue, and accuracy is one thing most GM's and coaches feel can be improved upon since it is mostly a mechanical issue.

I dunno. I'm pretty against Josh Allen.

I'm having trouble trusting them if this was their choice.

I mean, Jesus. This is the most important pick we've had in a long long long time.

God I hope they don't screw this up.

Josh Allen
Positives:
1) Strong Arm
2) Athletic
3) Big Hands
4) Tall
5) Good at Wonderlick Test

Negatives
1) Inconsistent Accuracy
2) Doesn't throw with anticipation
3) Questionable decision making
4) Hasn't had much success in a small conference
5) Virtually no awards in a small conference - SHOW ME A FREAKING SMALL SCHOOL QB WITH NO AWARDS!


HOW THE HELL CAN ANYONE JUSTIFY PICKING THIS GUY NUMBER ONE!



Honestly, if we select this guy, I'm gonna have a melt down. I can't take this much anymore. Losing and losing. Watching us screw up over and over. Everything failing.

Now we have the number 1 pick, three viable QBs who should be quality starters in the NFL right in front of us, and we're thinking about [censored] Josh Allen.


I just can't take it. I have to believe they aren't this stupid

Be ready. I think it could happen.

Yeah, i think i'll jump off the freakin tugboat into the middle of the Gulf Of Mexico.


It's so depressing. How can they do this kind of crap.

I wish I could figure out how to become a Giants fan. Instead I'm obsessed with the Cleveland Browns; watching us lose over and over and over. Fail after fail after fail.


And then Josh Allen. Or should I say Jemarcus Allen. I mean, jesus christ.

I like to think these NFL Guys are smart. But really? I dunno. I wonder if I can do a better job

As Diam and others have said, you just have to trust the process. I might not like it either, but it is what it is.

Trust the process, lol.

Who was the coach that kept talking about "the process"? Eric Mangenius?

The one who traded down and netted us superstars like Kenyon Coleman and Abram Elam?



It's hard to trust anything with this team. Especially when I can see something so freaking stupid right in front of my eyes. I can't see any possible reason why we would draft this guy. Why do we keep getting linked to him?

The Giants win superbowls, i havent seen him linked to them. Dorsey needs to get a clue!

Calm down. We are linked to a few guys. Nobody links us to Mayfield. Maybe we want it that way, but with the #1 overall, it isn't as important to blow smoke with that pick.

It's just not that easy when i'm reading MMQB headlines saying Dorsey's buddy thinks we'll take Allen 1 now.


Here's a way for the Browns to gain my trust. Select Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold. Any of them. Just not Josh Allen. If they want Josh Allen, select the guy at 4. If they have to select Josh Allen at 1, then select one of the guys I mentioned at 4.

Then I'd feel better.

Because you blow a QB pick, and you set yourself back pretty far. We only have Tyrod Taylor for one year.

If that's the QB we select, Josh Allen, I'll be ready to see John Dorsey out the door.



But, I have to have faith that these reports are nothing. Maybe we're drumming up support for a trade down at the number 4 spot. Because thinking about Josh Allen at 1 isn't good for my blood pressure.

Normally, I can talk myself into decisions. Just the homer I am. This one, not happening. This is Paxton Lynch. It's Jemarcus Russell. It's a disaster. Or should I say, a continuance of a disaster.


I wish we just got Kirk Cousins at this point. Paid him whatever he wanted. I'd rather have given the 4th pick of the draft for Alex Smith than get Josh Allen.

I've seen tape of Josh Allen. I'm not impressed

Here's a clue. Find me a small school college player whose only accolade is 2nd Team (once). Find me one that's been successful. That might make me feel better. Big Ben, Derek Carr, Tony Romo, Jimmy Garapollo, Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich; they all have awards. Every single one of them.


How can we possibly justify drafting a guy at number 1 who isn't even one of the best in his own conference (that being the Mountain West Conference)

Do you think John Dorsey, savvy, proven and well respected NFL GM John Dorsey, is gonna let thee most important franchise information 'slip' this casually?

Sure hope not. I just wish this was over and done with.


But as was said earlier, being this discreet and smoke screening the number 1 pick. What's the point?



I've trusted a lot of things man. Think of how many "saviors" we've had for this franchise. Phil Savage (draft guru), Tom Heckert, whoever that guy Mangini brought in, Joe Banner/Mike Lombardi, Ray Farmer. Whoever Butch Davis had (that's when I started seriously following the team). All failed.

I've been fed this story a lot. I'm excited about John Dorsey. Seems like a good one.


But it's hard to have faith when you see something that just doesn't make any sense with your eyes.

Yeah, but I don't presume the rumor to be accurate.

The reason not to announce the pick early is for competitive advantage. The other teams have an easier time setting their board when they know who the Browns are going to pick.

There is no denying the kid is oozing with talent. I always go back to the great QB's.

Peyton Manning - No one would call him athletic
TB12 - No one would call him athletic
Drew Breese - same
Big Ben - same

The above example show you that it's how you have to win mentally in the NFL way more so than physically. Nothing in the Josh Allen tap suggests to me that he will win mentally in the NFL.

I would say Drew and Ben are athletic.


I have no idea whether or not Josh has the 'win mentality' but how would you know if he did?

Mentally, not mentality. You can see him slow to process, even in the Video Bucky said he "gets stuck". It's pretty clear he isn't at a stage where he can process post snap reads quickly.