DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft First Round Trade Scenario

I like the premise, but you get your 3rd choice QB at 3 instead of your 1st choice. Not worth it.

the ONLY way I do this is if the Jets TELL us they are taking Rosen and we are involved in the preliminary contract talks ... AND we have an equal grade on two of Darnold/Allen/Mayfield

Browns fans do love their Draft picks

Browns fans do love their Draft picks. Lets keep trading down, that always works.

Recent history says they do love draft picks, but we aren't being run by the same people so that may change. We may actually use them to take good players. What a novel idea..LOL

Hopefully one of these years we’ll have more wins than draft picks. Probably not if we keep trading down.

I am of the opinion, after running all kinds of trade scenarios through my head, that the only trade down I would do, if Chubb is on the board at 4, is if the Broncos want to trade from 5 to 4 for a QB. If he's there at 4, I am willing to listen for a team to just completely blow away all expectations in a trade offer, but unless it is so completely obscene, and so overwhelmingly in our favor that it has a name 30 years later, (like the Herschel Walker trade) then I am staying put.

Darnold and Chubb is a really good draft, before the rest of the draft is considered. I would not be wiling to jeopardize the 1st part of it.

I trade down with the Bills. If we can get both of their firsts and a 2nd, I'd consider that a good haul.

I'd only trade with the bills if they find a 2nd partner such as the bucs, which Brandon Beane has already said no team wants to drop to 12 inside the top 5. I'd hate to lose out on that 1st tier of positional players.

My thoughts are...

The #1 pick is not available.

The #4 pick I can work with, but with the understanding that the Browns will very likely be in position to take the first non-QB of the draft. It's a deep QB draft, and anybody moving up is likely to be doing so to grab a QB, and there may well be multiple teams competing for the pick.

Because of the above factors, the #4 pick is more valuable than it would be in a typical draft. Make an offer we can't refuse, or somebody else will, or we'll just take the best player in the draft.

The Jets do not have a 2nd round pick next year - they've already traded it.

Regardless, you're saying the Jets would trade #3, #72, a late rounder (conditional picks are future picks, not current year picks), a 2019 first rounder and a 2019 second rounder (and maybe more) for #1? This is unrealiztic. There is ZERO chance that they do this, none.

Lets look at what the Bears did last year to move from 3 to 2 as an example. To move up to the second spot, the Bears gave up #3, #67, #111 and a 2018 3rd rounder. Using the trade value chart as a guideline (I know it is far from perfect, but it is a guideline)
#2 = 2600 pts
#3 = 2200 pts
#67 = 255 pts
#111 = 72 pts
2018 3rd rounder = 240 pts (actual value)

They gave up 2767 points for 2600 pts

You're suggesting:
#1 = 3000 pts
#3= 2200 pts
#72 = 230 pts
Late Rounder (lets say 6th rounder, #179) = 19.4 pts
2019 1st rounder (lets say #16, but it will prob be higher) = 1000 pts
change the 2019 2nd rounder to 3rd rounder (again 16th pick) = 190 pts

That's 3639.4 pts for 3000 pts, and the Jets would not have a pick in the 2nd or 3rd round this year or the first, second or 3rd round next year. Again, zero possiblity of that happening.

The only trade I would consider for #1 is if the Giants wanted to move up a spot to take someone that we didn't want, and I'm not sure they'd do that.

I like the thinking, but the Jets just don't have the ammo to move anywhere.

To play Devil's Advocate - why in the world would they trade up one spot when they know we're not taking a second QB?

I guess the only scenario would be if we convince them we might draft and trade their QB, but then why wouldn't we just trade with the team that wanted that QB? I can see a draft day scenario where we push them into believing that hype with the 10 minute clock ticking though, the bs would have to be carefully crafted, evil genius style lol...

Edited to say - I'm speaking strictly of the Broncos scenario...

We'll just do a Ricky Williams/Mike Ditka situation.

"Give us EVERYTHING you got!!!"

(For the original post, I did absolutely no research on if it could work. Just throwing the thought out there)

Jets are not taking Rosen...Woody is even more conservative than Haslam.

I noted it is far from perfect, and was a guideline. Also, most trades are somewhat close, and there's certainly a premium for the team moving up for a QB...but not 20+%

Regardless, no team that is in that much of a need of talent will trade away 2 years of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders. The GM would know he is signing his own pink slip.

Yeah, they'll only draft conservatives. lmao

We are talking about Franchise QB's here... the face of the franchise is many times decided by the owners. Why we took Manziel and not Teddy...

That's why neither us nor the Jets signed Kap, nor will we sign Reid..

You're grasping at straws here. Kap maybe, but it has nothing to do with JFF vs Manziel.

As John Dorsey has said, he remains open for business. The Broncos don't know what we will do, and if we will allow another team to jump them for a QB. Also, if a team like the Bills wants to throw a ridiculous offer on the table, I will listen. If the Donks want to trade up one spot to ensure that they get the player of their choice, then I am willing to accept a premium to do so.

Yes. It would be dumb not to trade with the Broncos is there was an offer on the table.

Yes there is. In fact, the Jets acquired the 3rd pick by paying a more than 20% premium (arguably more than a 30% premium, depending on how you value future picks.)

Jets get: No. 3 (2,200) = 2,200 points
Colts get: Nos. 6 (1,600), 37 (530), 49 (410) and 2019 2nd-rounder (~270) = 2,810

Figuring the 2019 second rounder as the last pick in the round (270, as is), that is more than a 27% overpay. Factor the pick as having middle of the second round value, (~420) then the trade is more like a 34-35% overpay.


Probably so. Either way I'm not trading that #1 pick. Now if a team makes an offer that makes the RG3 trade look like a bargain for the Redskins... well I'll think about it then. It's probably not something you should ask for so you say the pick is not available and GMs know what that means.

Good callout. I can't imagine they'd do it again in the same draft.

I believe this belongs in the fantasy and gaming forum,along with most of the other bizarre unrealistic trades.

I don't think this trade is THAT outlandish. We have been keeping our intentions very close to the vest. Many times, teams with the first pick make it very well known who they are picking. 2 years ago, I believe the Rams made it known that they were taking Goff, so the Eagles felt confident in trading up to 2 early because they knew they would get Wentz. The Colts made it well known early that Luck was their guy, so the Redskins traded early to get RG3.

Being that we haven't made it known makes me think 1 of 3 things.

1. We know who we want, and think there is still a possibility to trade out of number 1 and still ensure getting our number 1 guy (in this scenario, I feel like our guy would have to be Mayfield). We don't let it be known, to preserve our "master plan".

2. We don't have a true number 1 guy yet, and are still splitting hairs to determine which of the 4 is our guy. So you can't let it be known because it isn't yet known.

3. We know who we want, but being that we also have #4, we don't want to show our hand because we don't want to give the Giants the advantage, and let them control the draft.

So, if the answer is one of 1 or 2, then this trade is conceivable. Not likely in the least, but I see where you are going. As far as the value, the draft value chart goes out the window when you talk about quarterbacks. When Luck was going number 1, word was that we offered the Colts WAY more than the value of the pick... that is how valuable QBs are. The Redskins gave way more than the value of the pick for RG3. And it doesn't have to be just picks. Maybe instead of the 2019 1st, they offered us Leonard Williams. That sure would peak my interest.

So, in the end, I think the value you gave is about exactly right. Now, would the Jets be willing to basically have no picks this or next year to move to 1, and get the 1st choice at QB? Who knows. I think no, but sometimes teams are crazy! I would be so nervous if this happened. Draft day would be absolutely nuts and people would be running around draft rooms like chickens with their heads cut off!

This draft is so interesting!!! And we are right in the mix of it. I love it!!

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/989208574214770689

At least one of the QBs will be on the board when we pick at #4. It seems like multiple teams will be trying to trade up. If we want, we can get a ton for this pick. I'd trade it basically every time.

Is whoever we're potentially going to take a #4 worth two first round picks (and more)? How many current, non-QB, NFL players are worth that much? Not many.

Trade the pick.

Joey Bosa? Jalen Ramsey? Zeke Elliot? Khalil Mack? Julio Jones?

Yes. Yes. No. Yes. Yes.

But that point still stands. What are the chances that the player we select with the fourth pick is ever worth two first round picks (plus more)?

I'm taking the picks.

The only case I can think of is if there's a QB a team has highly rated.

Let's suppose that we take a QB, the Giants take Barkley and the Jets go QB. That means one of the top three QB's remain on the board.

With 32 teams in the NFL, I doubt they have all of the top 4 rated the same. If one of a couple of teams have one of those QB's rated in their top 2, I could see a huge ransom paid for that pick.

Imagine getting a 2019 first round pick from the Bills (whose starting QB is A.J. McCarron or a rookie) or Cardinals (Sam Bradford or a rookie). That's gold.

1. The right QB has to be available for a team that really likes him to make a move.

2. I would hope that team isn't too far down the draft order. We still need to get an absolute stud with that pick.


For those reasons, I don't think a trade will start to materialize until who is available becomes more clear (right before we pick).

Well, pretty good apparently. The guys are listed are all people we passed up to take the likes of Justin Gilbert, Corey Coleman and other "first rounders" that, most of which, aren't even on the team anymore.

If you have faith in the front office to take the right player at pick #4 then you should the faith in the front office to pick the right player if we trade down.

Studs are not just found at pick #4.

But there is a lot better chance of finding a stud at 4 than 12 & 22. This kind of thinking got us 1-31.