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https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-draft-who-will-be-first-overall-pickSam Darnold (QB) -300 Josh Allen (QB) +175 Saquon Barkley (RB) +400 Josh Rosen (QB) +1000 Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300 Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300 Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600 Field (Any Other Player) +3300 Seems like Vegas has us down to 3 guys in the running, but I'm really tempted to throw a little bit of coin at Mayfield. Obviously a long shot, but we know he won't get past the Jets at 3. And rumors are that he was well liked by Dorsey and had a good interview.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Why is Sam a - and everyone else a + ... what does that mean?
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have to bet 300 to win 100 on sam
bet 100 to win 175 on Allen
Vegas saying cat out of bag and its Darnold unless something major changes,
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You know my love will Not Fade Away.........
#gmSTRONG
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Betting on Sam seems awfully stupid ... i mean awfully stupid ...
U have to win that bet 3 out of 4 times just to break even .... that seems stupid ....
Am i wrong? ...
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~ Legend
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Might have to put 10 on Rosen and hope the Browns don't Browns it up.
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Betting on Sam seems awfully stupid ... i mean awfully stupid ...
U have to win that bet 3 out of 4 times just to break even .... that seems stupid ....
Am i wrong? ... You get your initial bet back, but you only get $100 more on a $300 bet.
1. #GMstrong
2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb
3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa
4. ClemenZa #1
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Dammm... u can really bet all those things? ... holy crap ....
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What im saying is ...
I put up 300 everytime i bet and if i win i make 100 ....
If i win the 1st time i get my 300 + 100 back ... so im up 100
If i win the 2nd time i get my 300 + 100 back ... now im up 200
If i win the 3rd time .... now im up 300 ...
If i lose the 4th time i lose the 300 i bet so now im back to even ...
Thats what i meant ....
Obviously im not a gambler so i have no clue what im talking about ... that just doesnt seem like a very intelligent bet to me when it comes to risk/reward ...
I’ll shut up now and just read what ya’all have to say ...
Thanks ...
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Sam Darnold (QB) -300
Josh Allen (QB) +175
Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
Field (Any Other Player) +3300
The only bet worth laying money on with any chance of happening is Mayfield.
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What im saying is ...
I put up 300 everytime i bet and if i win i make 100 ....
If i win the 1st time i get my 300 + 100 back ... so im up 100
If i win the 2nd time i get my 300 + 100 back ... now im up 200
If i win the 3rd time .... now im up 300 ...
If i lose the 4th time i lose the 300 i bet so now im back to even ...
Thats what i meant ....
Obviously im not a gambler so i have no clue what im talking about ... that just doesnt seem like a very intelligent bet to me when it comes to risk/reward ...
I’ll shut up now and just read what ya’all have to say ...
Thanks ... Your math is right. Whether or not it is an intelligent bet to make as far as risk/reward... who knows? What do you think the probability is of Darnold being drafted first overall? Is it 75% or less? Don't make the bet. If it's more than 75%... and I think it is... you could make the bet. Depends how much higher along with what your allowances are for swings, plus opportunity costs of actually placing the bet in the first place (might be illegal or inconvenient where you live, etc.)
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Yeah, I was surprised Darnold was THAT much of a favorite
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Sam Darnold (QB) -300
Josh Allen (QB) +175
Saquon Barkley (RB) +400
Josh Rosen (QB) +1000
Baker Mayfield (QB) +3300
Bradley Chubb (DE) +3300
Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB) +6600
Field (Any Other Player) +3300
The only bet worth laying money on with any chance of happening is Mayfield. I just can't see it being Mayfield.. it's not even worth it at 33:1. For entertainment purposes only: a reasonable strategy would be to put a large bet on Darnold with an (optional) small hedge on Rosen.
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I’ll shut up now and just read what ya’all have to say ...
The only thing I bet on is myself. That way I have at least some control over the outcome... 
Last edited by bbrowns32; 04/15/18 12:46 PM.
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
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Why is Sam a - and everyone else a + ... what does that mean? HEAVY Favorite. Yeah Baby!!!!!!!!
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Hell I live in Reno and don't give a crap about gambling.
There are machines in the grocery stores for crying out loud.
The only guy who doesn't get mentioned with the Browns is Rosen. Which I find very odd. Because he is a excellent quarterback prospect.
There has been all kinds of buzz around Mayfield, Allen,
and Darnold.
Honestly I have no idea who is their choice.
When you look at all the analytics and then factor in winning, film study, personal info, leadership, etc.
Then look at our decision makers.
I believe it is between Darnold and Mayfield.
Logic, and analytics really hurt Allen.
And for whatever reason I don't have a clue on why Rosen doesn't seem a fit. Maybe injury. Maybe they want more mobility.
So it looks to me like Darnold or Mayfield.
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Hell I live in Reno and don't give a crap about gambling.
There are machines in the grocery stores for crying out loud.
The only guy who doesn't get mentioned with the Browns is Rosen. Which I find very odd. Because he is a excellent quarterback prospect.
There has been all kinds of buzz around Mayfield, Allen,
and Darnold.
Honestly I have no idea who is their choice.
When you look at all the analytics and then factor in winning, film study, personal info, leadership, etc.
Then look at our decision makers.
I believe it is between Darnold and Mayfield.
Logic, and analytics really hurt Allen.
And for whatever reason I don't have a clue on why Rosen doesn't seem a fit. Maybe injury. Maybe they want more mobility.
So it looks to me like Darnold or Mayfield. I'd agree with your final two Based on rumors I've read/heard, Rosen's neurological results red flagged him for our FO. They LOVE his mechanics and everything, but is deemed a risk due to concussions. Allen is wildly raw. And wasn't overly impressive on the white board. Mayfield is the best personality and most accurate, but the lowest ceiling. Darnold has as high of upside as the others, and a higher floor. THe safest pick.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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That is how it lays out.
I was watching the whole "Building the Browns " series.
These guys will leave no stone unturned.
There are plenty of educated eyes looking at this.
I am confident they will come to a logical conclusion.
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I just can't see it being Mayfield.. it's not even worth it at 33:1.
I'm not sure how anyone can rule out Mayfield when we have Mccloughan and Highsmith in the building...
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Mayfield is the best personality and most accurate, but the lowest ceiling.
How so I wonder...? Or should I assume this is a play on his height?
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The draft can't get here soon enough. Subjects get more and more mundane...
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Seems an overwhelming favorite in Vegas. I was surprised. Just so ready for the Draft and get this nonsense behind us and the roster spots out in the open. How will we fill the seven spots we just opened up? Are those UFAs or FA spots? Making room obviously.
Go, Browns!
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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I think that if we keep the pick, Allen is still the second most likely pick.
Darnold 65%
Allen 23%
Mayfield 9%
Barkley 3%
Rosen 0%
Cleveland Browns, Space Browns ![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/iVP5Po2.png)
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Here's MY odds..
Sam Darnold - 50%
Josh Rosen - 50%
Baker Mayfield - 0%
Josh Allen - 0%
The Rest - 0%
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Here's MY odds..
Sam Darnold - 50%
Josh Rosen - 50%
Baker Mayfield - 0%
Josh Allen - 0%
The Rest - 0% I'd agree, but we aren't privy to the medical reports either
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I think It's 50/50 Darnold/Allen ...
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
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Here's MY odds..
Sam Darnold - 50%
Josh Rosen - 50%
Baker Mayfield - 0%
Josh Allen - 0%
The Rest - 0% Here's MY odds....... Darnold----95% The Rest---5%
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If we are going to play this game I'll say...
Baker Mayfield - 90%
Sam Darnold - 6%
Field - 4%
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I wonder if Dorsey’s most trusted and closest friend will be placing a bet on the #1 pick.
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Percentages? This would be a great spot for a Yogi-ism...
Last edited by bbrowns32; 04/15/18 06:31 PM.
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
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Legend
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no Diam...
You bet $300...you win you will get $100 PROFIT...so that you get the $300 you bet but your WINNINGS are just $100. You still win $100
Its a (-) cause you don't WIN what you Risked.
If you bet $300 and get back your $300 and win $300 that is the BREAK even point on odds. Like betting on Black or Red on the roulette table 50 50 odds.
Diam if you lost the 4th time...there is no 4th time you either win or you lose. If its a loss its a loss to all of them.
All it means is that you have to RISK $300 to be able to win $100 cause of the odds. Or if you wish Risk $3...to WIN $1 dollar.
Where none of the other players you have to Risk more than what you would win.
In Vegas that means its like you are betting on Secretariat About a sure thing as there is. So this is sort of reassuring cause Vegas is probably more accurate than KIPER!
Looks very very likely that Darnold will be our first pick.
If there is a long horse in this, I would bet on Mayfield, cause as the poster stated. Dorsey was hired and reported at the time very good things on Mayfield.
The return would be around $3,000 if you bet just $100.
Vegas is stating that its a sucker's bet. But you know us Browns fans are a bunch of Suckers.
Actually if I lived in Vegas, I probably would put $100 down on us making the playoffs. No clue what odds are but probably I would make around $1,000 on that bet if we made the playoffs. 
Good year to bet on our Browns in things as it is our turn around year.
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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1st String
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no Diam...
You bet $300...you win you will get $100 PROFIT...so that you get the $300 you bet but your WINNINGS are just $100. You still win $100
Its a (-) cause you don't WIN what you Risked.
If you bet $300 and get back your $300 and win $300 that is the BREAK even point on odds. Like betting on Black or Red on the roulette table 50 50 odds.
Diam if you lost the 4th time...there is no 4th time you either win or you lose. If its a loss its a loss to all of them.
All it means is that you have to RISK $300 to be able to win $100 cause of the odds. Or if you wish Risk $3...to WIN $1 dollar.
Where none of the other players you have to Risk more than what you would win.
In Vegas that means its like you are betting on Secretariat About a sure thing as there is. So this is sort of reassuring cause Vegas is probably more accurate than KIPER!
Looks very very likely that Darnold will be our first pick.
If there is a long horse in this, I would bet on Mayfield, cause as the poster stated. Dorsey was hired and reported at the time very good things on Mayfield.
The return would be around $3,000 if you bet just $100.
Vegas is stating that its a sucker's bet. But you know us Browns fans are a bunch of Suckers.
Actually if I lived in Vegas, I probably would put $100 down on us making the playoffs. No clue what odds are but probably I would make around $1,000 on that bet if we made the playoffs.
Good year to bet on our Browns in things as it is our turn around year. No need to live in Vegas for that...  We all know people I'm sure.
"You're gonna do WHAT?!"
-Tim Robbins as Merlin in Top Gun
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j/c Tony Grossi had his thoughts on this also... Link
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j/c Tony Grossi had his thoughts on this also... Link I'm guessing that means there's a -20% chance in his mind for Rosen?
1. #GMstrong
2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb
3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa
4. ClemenZa #1
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j/c Tony Grossi had his thoughts on this also... Link Ace reporter @TonyGrossi gives his expert opinion on who the #Browns will draft:
“I’d have Darnold at 55%. Allen at 35%. Uhh, Mayfield at 30%. And then the remainder to Rosen.”
🤔
He really gave 110% 120% and change on that answer.
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j/c Tony Grossi had his thoughts on this also... Link Ace reporter @TonyGrossi gives his expert opinion on who the #Browns will draft:
“I’d have Darnold at 55%. Allen at 35%. Uhh, Mayfield at 30%. And then the remainder to Rosen.”
🤔
He really gave 110% 120% and change on that answer. 
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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grossi is a democrat...he votes more than once...lol
Now if it was Yogi Berra it would be great!
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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grossi is a democrat...he votes more than once...lol That’s funny.
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UPDATED ON 4/19
Sam Darnold (-200)
Josh Allen (+175)
Saquon Barkley (+500)
Josh Rosen (+1000)
Baker Mayfield (+1400)
Bradley Chubb (+3300)
Minkah Fitzpatrick (+10000)
So Darnold's odds went down, Allen's remained the same, Barkley's went down, Rosen's remained the same, and Mayfield's went up considerably
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Must have been a lot of movement on Mayfield. Although the odds are set, where the money goes can sway things.
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Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft 1st Pick Odds
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