DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Medicare/Social Security Set to run out 8 and 16 years

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I will have to read your link later.. I will just say that social security has been set to run out since I was 12....

agreed. I have heard this for 20+ years, well for at least as long as I knew what it was

But the problem is, we KEEP saying it, they KEEP "borrowing" from it, thinking the same thing. Sooner or later, it is going to run out.

This I've never understood.

Why are we allowing the Government to Borrow from Social Security?

I'm pretty liberal in a lot of my beliefs, but I'm a very strict person with money. I guess you'd call it fiscal. And I'd like the Government to be that way as well. That and how I think the government's priorities are so screwed up. How can we afford to send all that money to Israel/Pakistan, yet leave Puerto Rico after that Hurricane the way we did. Straight up awful. But anyway, that's a pipe dream.



One solution I always figured for Social Security, at least, is to remove the cap on how much people can pay into it per year. Just keep the tax on the income all the way up, instead of removing the tax after a set amount of money has been put in per year (by an individual).

As someone who is above the cap salary-wise, I agree. I don't think it'd happen though, too many businesses would have to pay their share as well.

I'm not sure what the laws are on suing the government, but I can see that there will be a LOT of people in 16 years (if this happens) pretty ticked off - and I can imagine someone filing a class action law suit, if it can be done (regardless of whether there is legal merit to it or not).

edit: I just looked up how much I've paid into SS, so far 119k, with employers paying 126k. So $245k paid into SS so far. My benefits are expected to be a little less than 3k. Extrapolating the numbers, they are a little baffling that it will go insolvent...I know I'm only one person and I've paid more than many, but still.

so 245K at 3K a month. Help me if my math is correct, that's just under 7 years of collecting. A big issue, is people are living a lot longer than anticipated, thus collecting a lot longer than they would have been when this was instituted.

Don't get me wrong, the government is 90% to blame for it, with the money they STOLE yes STOLE from it. Not borrowed, not used, STOLE.

Beats me. I don't think we LET them do anything. They STOLE the money in the middle of the night with a vote while American slept taking it as a stab in the back.

This is money WE pay into. 1. Its not a TAX, its money we pay that goes into an account for US. 2. They had to have a secret vote on it in the middle of the night like thieves because they knew the backlash. 3. I fully agree, there should be a lawsuit against the government for this. 4. We should be able to OPT out, and put that money into our funds if we choose.

Social security also has an insurance element that is overlooked. It has an upper limit on benefits that you can receive. There is a cap on the amount because it has those limits. I suspect that the next iteration will have some tax above the upper limit. But then it is a pure tax, not a paid into benefit program.

I don’t like that the goverment uses Social Security to fund current spending. Ideally that money should be accruing interest to be paid out later.

This won't be perfect math because it makes too many assumptions, but at 3% interest that 245k would be worth 336k right now.

Lets say I make the 100k for the next 18 years (a pay cut for me) the total, including 3% interest every year until Jan 2037 would be an estimated 682k (thank goodness for MS Excel). At 36k/year starting at age 67 (Jan 2037), and assuming the 3% continues on the amount still in the "bank", the money would run out in 2065, a couple months after my 95th birthday.

2% interest reduces this 12 years, and at a little less than 4.4% interest it is a perpetuity, as the interest will be greater than the annual payout. This is all based on annually compounded interest, but it likely compounds monthly. I'm not doing those calcs, but the numbers I have above would be lower than the monthly compounding.

Again, I know I make and have "donated" more than many, but the math should be similar because benefits will be lower. The two problems with the system are (1) those that are disabled or otherwise unable to earn but are able to withdraw before retirement age and (2) the government taking the money for other things...I'm guessing #2 is significantly larger than #1

we weren't talking about 18 years from now I was assuming you meant starting collecting today. so I used the easy way out lol.

idk. I work in banking, and I see a great deal of people that come in with SSI direct deposits, that frankly - should not be getting those deposits.

But I agree, those are both ISSUES. #1 should be a different fund, IMO. If you never worked, or don't work, you should not be able to collect more than you ever put in for IMO.

Why do you think they shouldnt be getting them ?

I agree with everything but the last statement, but I understand why feel the way you do.

I have seen people collecting that work full time under the table...that were disabled doing landscaping...etc. fraud cases galore. happens all the time.

OK, I think you mean SSD then, thats disability

Is SSD different funding, or does it come from the SS taxes we pay?

Correct, I was under the impression it comes from the same fund.

dat democratic socialism tho

Same here. Been hearing it since I was a little guy.

Just curious, were they stealing a trillion dollars from it when you were a little guy?

Not real sure exactly where things are funded from, but you can get SSI if you have never worked a day in your life and it caps out at like $731 dollars. SSD is based on what they call your work credits. The more you worked and the more you made the more you get in SSD if you become disabled.

I had a former customer that both her Husband and herself where on SSD. They were pulling in between the both of them about 2800-3200 a month. Its really not much, however both of them were working under the table - she was bartending, and he was working as a landscaper under the table making 500 a week (his disability was due to having a bad back). We are not talking about just cutting grass either, he was doing full landscaping, concrete, etc. Hard stuff, especially for someone with a bad back.

This was not a one time case thing in my career. It wasn't the norm or the majority, however it was much more prevalent that some may think. I would say about twice a month I had to fill out a SAR (suspicious activity report) and notify the state of possible fraud.

This was in a town of about 3 or 4K people, mind you as well. So 2x a month doesn't seem like much, but multiply that by thousands in a big a city.......

It definitely happens, probably even more so with people who are receiving it for non physical disabilities.

I have known a few people who were getting what we called "crazy checks" who did physical work under the table too

It definitely happens.. the problem is that the alternative to keep it from happening is adding thousands of additional people to the government payroll to look for it, follow-up, investigate, etc.. I'm pretty sure they have just decided that it's cheaper to let it happen than it is to add all of those people to keep it from happening..

Heck I have a friend who got out of the Marines on a medical.. I think he was only in for 6 months following boot camp and was never out of VA/NC area.. he's 44 now and runs 5Ks, he scuba dives, he competes in cycling races, he works in construction as a superintendent who is always on his feet and moving around.. yet from his "disability" he has a handicap parking tag.. I've told him in no uncertain terms what a piece of crap I think he is for using it.

Why do we allow it? because we will not allow any thing in the budget to be cut and we wont accept raising taxes to pay for the things were refuse to cut. So the only option is to use money that is supposedly "earmarked" for other uses

That $245K is being used to the benefits of 5 people (actually 2.9 workers pay per recipient..i was just exaggerating)...however if we just look at it in terms of funding you at $3000 a month.... in 6.8 years you will "draw out what you put in"...so where does the money come from in year 10, 15 and 20 if you live that long.

It really should not baffle anyone that the program is insolvent

SS does not really have the ability to draw interest...what is paid in today is used to pay current benefits. Since it is in and out it can't take advantage of compounding interest

We can't use today's numbers for something that will happen 19 years from now. I followed up that post with the estimated numbers at the time of retirement (assuming that is 67) - it'll be closer to 700k with assumptions (the government is getting 3% interest, and that I can earn about 65% of my current salary for the remainder of my career) - I also threw some numbers in there for 2% and perpetuity as well.

The 2.9 per person is disturbing. Any idea why?

The 2.9 person is easy....lots of baby boomers drawing with a work force that did not grow to match the number of users