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quote above by 'peen: You do know that lines are set for betting? The lines are set to create equal betting on both sides of the line. If the betting starts to get heavy on one side, the line is changed. What's the problem? This statement assumes bettors are idiots. (well yeah, some are - for a while. Then they're still idiots. Just not bettors anymore.) You do know that betting lines are the best possible prediction of how much a team will win or lose a game by, right? And there are thousands of well-financed professional gamblers with lots of money who "bet with their heads". Their job is to make money "beating the point spreads". It's extremely hard to do. Impossible to consistently do in the short run. And given the final point spreads of every professional NFL game that's ever been played, the outcome is virtually 50/50. (Underdog + points wins bet 50% of the time) Also, it is a statistical fact of the universe that a 3 point NFL regular season underdog will win that game 40% of the time. In other words, if you take every 3-point NFL regular season game that's every been played or ever will be played, the underdog wins 40% of them. The actual formula, which is accurate up to 10 point spreads, is: X = chance of winning % X = 50% + (3 1/3% * points favored by) If a team is favored by 3 points: X = 50% + (3 1/3% * 3) X = 50% + 10% X = 60% This formula is based on historical empirical data. (what's really happened) Trust me. I know what I'm talking about. 
Last edited by rockyhilldawg; 06/11/18 08:40 AM.
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I agree .... the house isn’t losing money ...
Just curious ... what was the Vegas line on the Jags # of wins last year ... how much would i have made if i took the niners with no points every week after JG took over ....
There very very good and make tons of money setting and manipulating lines so they make the vig ... but there not infallible ...
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to our line ....
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j/c
There are a lot of varying opinions when it comes to Hue. Mine has remained fairly consistent. I look at what Dorsey said when he got here and it seems the powers that be agree with my opinion. ( refer to my sig. )
A game plan looks great any time your players execute. Every game plan looks terrible when your players don't execute. It's really that simple. All coaches make mistakes and when you win games, those mistakes are overlooked because the end result is a good one. When you lose games, those mistakes get magnified.
Once again, referring to my sig., it's obvious Dorsey thought this team was pretty devoid of talent when he got here. There would be no other reason to keep a coach who is 1-31 unless you seriously believe he hasn't been given competitive talent. Dorsey has done a lot to correct that situation. To me, at this point, Hue is on a one year deal, and rightfully so. The talent has been assembled to compete and win some games.
I agree with those who say that injuries on the part of both us and our opponents will play into the equation and the assessment of Hue will be done on a game to game basis. I've never believed in giving Hue some long term loyalty. I have however believed in giving him a roster that has enough talent to win and see what he can do with it before he's kicked to the curb like we have seen done over and over again. This is that year. Your post there pretty-much sums it up for me as well at this point. However, if I authored that post...there is a defensive Hue-supporter on this board who would NOT like the content. I actually think most Browns fans I know (personally) would agree with your post as well...even those (like me) who no longer care for Hue to be here. However, we are all giving him the benefit of the doubt (as if we have a choice) that he can be the right HC with the right cast around him. One can hope...and time will tell.
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Question, how does this current team compare to the 1994 team?
Offensive:
QB Vinny Testaverde
RB Eric Metcalf / Earnest Byner
FB Leroy Hoard / Tommy Vardell
WR Michael Jackson
WR Mark Carrier
WR Keenan McCardell
WR Derrick Alexander
TE Brian Kinchen
LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones
LG Doug Dawson
C Steve Everitt
RG Bob Dahl
RT Gene Williams / Orlando Brown
Defensive:
LDE Rob Burnett
LDT Bill Johnson
RDT Michael Dean Perry
RDE Anthony Pleasant / Dan Footman
LLB Carl Banks / Gerald Dixon
MLB Pepper Johnson
RLB Frank Stams / Mike Caldwell
LCB Antonio Langham
RCB Don Griffin
SS Stevon Moore
FS Eric Turner
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Question, how does this current team compare to the 1994 team?
Offensive:
QB Vinny Testaverde
RB Eric Metcalf / Earnest Byner
FB Leroy Hoard / Tommy Vardell
WR Michael Jackson
WR Mark Carrier
WR Keenan McCardell
WR Derrick Alexander
TE Brian Kinchen
LT Tony (T-Bone) Jones
LG Doug Dawson
C Steve Everitt
RG Bob Dahl
RT Gene Williams / Orlando Brown
Defensive:
LDE Rob Burnett
LDT Bill Johnson
RDT Michael Dean Perry
RDE Anthony Pleasant / Dan Footman
LLB Carl Banks / Gerald Dixon
MLB Pepper Johnson
RLB Frank Stams / Mike Caldwell
LCB Antonio Langham
RCB Don Griffin
SS Stevon Moore
FS Eric Turner The only way to compare them in my mind. 1994 Browns were 11-5 and legit SuperBowl contenders with proven high level NFL talent on both sides of the ball. 2018 Browns are 0-0, fairly young and totally unproven. Looking at both rosters I’m not sure any of our current players could push out the starters on the 1994 team. Josh Gordon probably could. Maybe Bitonio at a guard position. That’s about all I see. Some will argue Garrett but he’s not proven himself yet in my mind. Mingo had decent sack numbers his rookie year too. (I’m not calling Garret equal to Mingo! I’m just stating Garrett hasn’t proven anything over enough time to warrant starting ahead of MDPerry or A Pleasant.)
Last edited by PortlandDawg; 06/11/18 10:27 AM.
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j/c
There are a lot of varying opinions when it comes to Hue. Mine has remained fairly consistent. I look at what Dorsey said when he got here and it seems the powers that be agree with my opinion. ( refer to my sig. )
A game plan looks great any time your players execute. Every game plan looks terrible when your players don't execute. It's really that simple. All coaches make mistakes and when you win games, those mistakes are overlooked because the end result is a good one. When you lose games, those mistakes get magnified.
Once again, referring to my sig., it's obvious Dorsey thought this team was pretty devoid of talent when he got here. There would be no other reason to keep a coach who is 1-31 unless you seriously believe he hasn't been given competitive talent. Dorsey has done a lot to correct that situation. To me, at this point, Hue is on a one year deal, and rightfully so. The talent has been assembled to compete and win some games.
I agree with those who say that injuries on the part of both us and our opponents will play into the equation and the assessment of Hue will be done on a game to game basis. I've never believed in giving Hue some long term loyalty. I have however believed in giving him a roster that has enough talent to win and see what he can do with it before he's kicked to the curb like we have seen done over and over again. This is that year. Your post there pretty-much sums it up for me as well at this point. However, if I authored that post...there is a defensive Hue-supporter on this board who would NOT like the content. I actually think most Browns fans I know (personally) would agree with your post as well...even those (like me) who no longer care for Hue to be here. However, we are all giving him the benefit of the doubt (as if we have a choice) that he can be the right HC with the right cast around him. One can hope...and time will tell. I don't disagree for the most part. I do disagree in that Dorsey had no choice to keep Hue. All that said, Hue is the head coach. The slate is clean. He has a good staff and a good group of players. We should see drastic improvements for any number of reasons. Let the winning begin.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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I thought it would be interesting to look back at the betting odds last year. Here are some interesting ones:
Buffalo: 6.0 Wound up 9-7
Browns: 4.5 Obviously we went winless
Jax: 6.0 wound up 10-6
Indy 9.0 Won 4
Houston 8.5 Won 4
Oakland 10.0 Won 6
Denver 8.5 Won 5
Philly 8.0 Won 13
Giants 9.0 Won 3
Vikings 8.5 Won 13
Green Bay 10.0 Won 7
New Orleans 6.0 Won 11
Tampa 8.5 Won 5
Rams 5.5 Won 11
Many of these were the result of adding key players, or losing key players. Others were the result of unexpected development of young players, or a free agent having a bigger impact than expected. Still other were helped by a new head coach.
The point is that there is a reason that so many teams miss the playoffs the year after making them. Too many unexpected things happen in the NFL.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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So much is riding on that first game...really it is.
1. We win and it sets a tone that we are contending for the Division title and actually should put us on a team high we should kick butt all year.
2. We lose and not the end of the season but the 0-17 muttering will be there and in the back of the players mind which will only put on stress to get that first win a big thing don't wish us to try TOO hard and tighten up...this team needs to be loose.
3. So I will state this, we win that first game and I think we are well on our way to the playoffs this year. Lose and we got to start winning one fast and each game we don't the pressure will mount.
4. 2-6 I don't think Hue will survive. And I like Hue as our HC...just the history of losing will make it difficult.
Why he is adamnite on naming and sticking with TT as the starter. He gives us the best chance to win up front. BM will have to really show something to turn that decision around and that would be very difficult for a rookie. Although BM is about as competitive as it gets - I think he is going into this by working hard on the things that he needs to learn and not concerning himself about wowing anyone, just learning the little things to perfection.
jmho
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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yea I do agree. This team has to get off to a quick start or the negative starts swallowing the team. We win a couple early and that momentum could really roll.
Team is starting to take shape and potential of Chubb and Hyde behind this monster run blocking line is scary to think about. Thats not even considering the receiving options.
I am not a tyrod fan personally I think his refusal to throw to the open guy cost the Bills more games than his legs ever won them. I dont know if Baker is an NFL QB. I love his arm and accuracy. Kid is a sniper.
Anyway Hue has a solid staff and he has weapons on both sides of the ball. I dont know if he can survive a brutal early schedule but if he does, this team is built for a December games.
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I agree with your assessment.
In keeping with the spirit of this thread, sometimes some simple reflection can put things like this into its proper perspective.
This team has a lot to prove to me, before I can start to think of them in the same light as the core of the team from 94, that became the Ravens and won the SB.
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I don't disagree for the most part. I do disagree in that Dorsey had no choice to keep Hue.
All that said, Hue is the head coach. The slate is clean. He has a good staff and a good group of players. We should see drastic improvements for any number of reasons.
Let the winning begin.
I agree. Memphis posted a summary of a slew of potential reasons why Hue was retained. Could be all of them...could be none of them. It really matters not. Maybe it's just to save money? Don't know...don't care. Results are all that matters at this point. I think saying we are "legit" wildcard contenders would be better if it said "potential"...because right now, potential is all we've got/shown.
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2nd String
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I agree with your assessment.
In keeping with the spirit of this thread, sometimes some simple reflection can put things like this into its proper perspective.
This team has a lot to prove to me, before I can start to think of them in the same light as the core of the team from 94, that became the Ravens and won the SB.
That '94 team was not the core of the Ravens Super Bowl team...the only Browns on the SB team were Rob Burnett, Matt Stover, and Larry Webster. This team needs an identity, once established it can be built upon. Right now their identity is 1-31. Until that first win of 2018 comes, we they won't begin changing that identity. That said, I DO expect them to begin that transition. I agree with the earlier poster, the sooner that win comes, the better chance they have of REALLY turning the corner. If they can beat Pittsburgh week 1, look out...
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I agree that the home opener is a critical game. After that we travel to the Big Easy, then back home on Thursday Night against the Jets.
We almost beat the Steelers last year in the opener. I think we get the deal done this year.
Face it, we have to start winning at home. Those are games where you have an advantage and the fan base needs to see some wins.
We have 8 home games. We need to win 5-6 of those. Away games, even win 2 of those and it is a good first offering and keeps Hue employed in Cleveland..
If we crap the bed at home, the crap will stick to us on the road.
Win at home. The fans are on your side. We don't like booing our team, but what happened on the field the last couple of years made it impossible to not.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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I thought it would be interesting to look back at the betting odds last year. Here are some interesting ones:
Buffalo: 6.0 Wound up 9-7
Browns: 4.5 Obviously we went winless
Jax: 6.0 wound up 10-6
Indy 9.0 Won 4
Houston 8.5 Won 4
Oakland 10.0 Won 6
Denver 8.5 Won 5
Philly 8.0 Won 13
Giants 9.0 Won 3
Vikings 8.5 Won 13
Green Bay 10.0 Won 7
New Orleans 6.0 Won 11
Tampa 8.5 Won 5
Rams 5.5 Won 11
Many of these were the result of adding key players, or losing key players. Others were the result of unexpected development of young players, or a free agent having a bigger impact than expected. Still other were helped by a new head coach.
The point is that there is a reason that so many teams miss the playoffs the year after making them. Too many unexpected things happen in the NFL. Hmmm....looks like "Vegas" isn't as smart of some people think on the long odds. They do a pretty good job on the weekly match-ups as Rocky pointed out.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Yes, you are correct. I forget that it was six years later and after our return.
The 95 season was derailed by the awful betrayal, but I felt like that 94 team was close to knocking at the door, and even though the team would go in the tank (Murphy's law) in 95, our defense still played at a championship level all year.
The last home game win holds extra special place in the heart of this old Dawg.
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I hear you.....but I am long over that.
I think Art should be in the HOF and think we should be winning more than zero games a season.
But hey, that's just my opinion.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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You could make a case for Art in the hall as a builder, but I think he's exactly where he should be...
![[Linked Image from i28.photobucket.com]](http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c201/shadedog/mcenroe2.jpg) gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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You could make a case for Art in the hall as a builder, but I think he's exactly where he should be... That's pretty weak Lampy. You might need to pray a little harder tonight. Just saying....
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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I don't disagree for the most part. I do disagree in that Dorsey had no choice to keep Hue.
All that said, Hue is the head coach. The slate is clean. He has a good staff and a good group of players. We should see drastic improvements for any number of reasons.
Let the winning begin.
I agree. Memphis posted a summary of a slew of potential reasons why Hue was retained. Could be all of them...could be none of them. It really matters not. Maybe it's just to save money? Don't know...don't care. Results are all that matters at this point. I think saying we are "legit" wildcard contenders would be better if it said "potential"...because right now, potential is all we've got/shown. For the record, the article said sleepers, not contenders. To me, there is a difference.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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You could make a case for Art in the hall as a builder, but I think he's exactly where he should be... That's pretty weak Lampy. You might need to pray a little harder tonight. Just saying.... Maybe he meant heaven. 
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Lol, no... heaven is for good guys, so it is said. Besides, I wasn't referring to heaven or hell, I meant he should be outside the hall and in some other place. Like, the cemetery. Peen, I won't pray tonight. lol it never works for me. Sorry but I hate him. What he did to Browns fans - and the heirs of his long-ago business partner, btw, makes him dirt to me. He was a greedy pig.
gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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I've said it elsewhere, but starting against the Steelers and then at the Saints is pretty brutal. I think the week 3 game will be huge for Hue
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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We shouldn't expect to bust out of the gate as a fully-cohesive unit. This is a new offence in many ways. IMO it is easier to gel on D than on O.
Don't be shocked if we start 0-2 against those teams.
gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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Lol, no... heaven is for good guys, so it is said. Besides, I wasn't referring to heaven or hell, I meant he should be outside the hall and in some other place. Like, the cemetery. Peen, I won't pray tonight. lol it never works for me. Sorry but I hate him. What he did to Browns fans - and the heirs of his long-ago business partner, btw, makes him dirt to me. He was a greedy pig. Hence the at the end. He can rot in the ground for all I care.
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Preacher, meet choir.
Last edited by lampdogg; 06/11/18 07:41 PM.
gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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We shouldn't expect to bust out of the gate as a fully-cohesive unit. This is a new offence in many ways. IMO it is easier to gel on D than on O.
Don't be shocked if we start 0-2 against those teams.
Oh, I'll be shocked if we're anything but 0-2 .... problem is, there will be an awful lot of pressure on that Thursday night game. If we go to 0-3, there will be plenty of time for the "fire Hue" and "just play Baker" shouts to gather steam
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I believe that 0-3 is unacceptable and that 1-2 is what we reasonably can expect. 2-1 would be a great start...
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
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The Saints or the Jets... we must win one of them for me appreciate the start of the season in terms of the first three games since that's what been said.
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Agree that the first game is HUGE ... were gonna need at least a couple weeks to gel ... tough first two ... vet teams that have some talent and two of the top 5 or 6 QB’s in the league ... Then the Jets ... IMO thats a MUST WIN ... Then the team should be improving due to having been through some games and then it gets real interesting ... If we can beat either Pitt or NO and its not out of the question but it is a real tough task .... if we win one of those two ... oh boy ... buckle in for what will be a wild ass ride compared to what our sorry asses are used to ... 
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He did nothing for the Browns to get him in the HOF...what firing Paul Brown as one of his first big moves???
He was a TV ad man that got in the industry at the right time as TV was relatively new and because of that he helped the NFL make its move to TV as well. Just the right guy in the right place at the right time.
Football wise he was terrible for the Browns. We one Once more with Paul Browns team and then it was downhill we did make a big push with 2 AFC Championship games vs. Broncos but then Modell fired that coach also as he got too powerful.
I hate Modell he broke my heart and many others.
jmho
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off!
Go Browns!
CHRIST HAS RISEN!
GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
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0-3 certainly would be unacceptable and our worst case scenario, but honestly it's at least a possibility, if not likely.
We'll be 7-10 point underdogs in weeks 1-2 and a pickem in week 3
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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The NFL did not schedule us many favors, especially to start. Just need to be ready as we can. My idea of parity is every team has to have an O for All season. Just ready to get some wins and get the taste of losing out of my mouth. Realistically, I may have to wait on that
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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With improved corner play we are going to have improved defensive play. I really expect to see the D make good progress this season.
On O, run the ball, utilize the short passing game and TT's legs to move the chains and use the clock. When the time is right, strike deep.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Our D will be improved just with the upgrade in personnel but also because our O should be on the field longer with the upgrade there. Last year our D was on the field much too long because our O could not move the ball. Should be better this year. We could be looking at a top 10 D.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,583 Likes: 815
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,583 Likes: 815 |
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 12,843 Likes: 275
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 12,843 Likes: 275 |
There's nothing wrong with hope - I think we'll could go to the playoffs - but a lot of things will have to go right for us to even win seven games.
I do think we are finished being laughing stocks. We are turning that around, and in a hurry.
gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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Joined: May 2018
Posts: 10
Rookie
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Rookie
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 10 |
I don't think it's crazy to think that this team could contend for the division. Forget about the past and just look at the current roster; I think we stack up pretty well against the AFC North. Our team looks as good or better than Cincy and Baltimore, and I think we have made up a lot of ground on Pittsburgh. Our schedule looks a bit rough on paper, but if we can beat the Steelers at home in week 1, it'll really set the tone going forward.
I know I'm being too optimistic, but I think there's a better chance we finish above .500 than below. I haven't been comfortable saying that for about a decade now.
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Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 4,817 Likes: 19
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 4,817 Likes: 19 |
I know I'm being too optimistic, but I think there's a better chance we finish above .500 than below. I haven't been comfortable saying that for about a decade now.
I would agree with you, but there's an X factor in all of this... and the truthers will try to convince you 1-31 wasn't his fault and that he is all-world. Maybe they're right. I guess we'll find out.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,583 Likes: 815
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,583 Likes: 815 |
No need to bring Hue in to this. This is a new season. Time will tell if keeping him was a good move or a bad move.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 8,974
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 8,974 |
No need to bring Hue in to this. This is a new season. Time will tell if keeping him was a good move or a bad move. I think this year will tell us just how much talent vs. coaching means in the nfl at least.
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