President Donald Trump believes the market wouldn’t react well if he were to be impeached.
“If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash,” Trump told Fox News. “I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”
On Tuesday, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on charges of tax evasion and bank fraud. Also on Tuesday, Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to 8 counts of illegal campaign contributions made “at the direction of a candidate for federal office.” These campaign violations involve payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal, women who claim to have had affairs with Trump.
As a result, some see the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment increasing. On political prediction site PredictIt, the odds of a Trump impeachment hit a three-month high, with the current odds of it happening by the end of 2019 sitting at 37% and the probability of it happening sometime within his first term at 45%.
Volatility is far from a sure thing
But Wall Street experts like JPMorgan’s John Normand aren’t convinced that a bumpy presidency would mean trouble for markets, saying that to think a Trump impeachment would derail the markets seems “hasty.”
“Fiscal stimulus, which has been the most-material driver of this year’s step up in US growth and corporate earnings, would not be reversed if the mid-term elections delivered a Democratic Congress, an impeachment process or eventually a guilty verdict,” Normand wrote in a note to clients. “Neither has the Trump Administration been proposing a deregulatory agenda comparable to Reagan and Clinton’s that requires legislation to deliver transformational change. The agenda is advancing more through personnel, priorities, rules and executive orders, which are important at the sectoral level (Financials, Energy) but not at the macroeconomic one. Thus, rethinking the direction of the economy or financial markets on the prospects for less deregulation under a preoccupied or a different President seems hasty.”
Certainly, there’s a case to be made that markets would nevertheless experience volatility in the near-term. However, there are bigger things out there driving the market in the long run.
“Perhaps there is a tactical case for reducing overweights in Equities versus Bonds this Fall, on a view that a high P/E market is typically vulnerable to drawdown before an event risk,” Normand added. “But the case for strategically underweighting stocks or shifting to long duration is poor unless one believes that prospects for US growth, earnings and the Fed in 2019 rest on this aspect of domestic politics.”
What about Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton?
In the note, Normand emphasized that impeachment “is a process rather than an event, involving several judicial and institutional phases.” And while there have been past examples of disgraced presidencies, they need to be examined individually.
Normand noted that Nixon’s impeachment process began shortly after the First Oil Shock in late 1973 that resulted in recession and rising inflation. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Elsewhere, Clinton’s impeachment in December 1998 was “almost a non-event for the markets” as stocks and credit had already experienced the Asian Crisis, the Russian default, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management that summer.
The “wildcard,” according to Normand, is trade. Trump has authorized tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
“If, at some point, Trump’s Presidency ends prematurely like Nixon’s, the lingering question for EM – or at least the China complex – will be whether the new boss Vice President Pence will be the same as the old boss.”
________
Did anybody watch parts of the interview? Boy oh boy.....
So there’s a lot to unpack here, but I’ll start with the two obvious points.
1. He’s obviously wrong. The economy was rolling before he came into the fold, and didn’t have any sort of impact on the economy until damn near a full year into his term, when the GOP finally passed major legislation in tax cuts.
And a 12billion dollar loan we just gave the farmers says I dunno if trump being impeached will really make anything worse.
2. Clearly trump is shook. This is the hardest he’s ever gone with talking about impeachment. He’s now tweeting about the “rigged witch hunt” on a daily basis, sometimes multiple times though the day. Typically, especially with rich people, if you didn’t do anything wrong, you have nothing to fear.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
Let's see: Coal miners? No not really. Auto Workers? No, not really?
Investment Bankers? Oh yeah.. Corporate giants? You bet.
Minorities? You've got to be kidding?
Women? Again, you've got to be kidding?
The Wealthy? For sure he's loved there.
What's that tell you? It tells me that those he's helped most are people like himself.. They pretty much control the markets.
So yeah, The markets would probably be negatively impacted...
Think about this as well.
What was the Dow at when Trump took over? 19742.. What was it when Obama took over: 7949.
So you can see, the Dow for instance, was on a steady incline. So regardless of what republicans want to tell you, the economy was sound, but it just wasn't putting enough money into the wealthy pockets.
And people bought that hook line and sinker..
So yeah, they'll tank the market, then it will do what it always does, rebound.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe." Damanshot
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
You know what would help bridge the racial divide?
Omarosa teaming up with Sessions to take down trump.
Good reality tv, and would cause a ton of confusion.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
President Donald Trump believes the market wouldn’t react well if he were to be impeached.
“If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash,” Trump told Fox News. “I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”
On Tuesday, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on charges of tax evasion and bank fraud. Also on Tuesday, Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to 8 counts of illegal campaign contributions made “at the direction of a candidate for federal office.” These campaign violations involve payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal, women who claim to have had affairs with Trump.
As a result, some see the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment increasing. On political prediction site PredictIt, the odds of a Trump impeachment hit a three-month high, with the current odds of it happening by the end of 2019 sitting at 37% and the probability of it happening sometime within his first term at 45%.
Volatility is far from a sure thing
But Wall Street experts like JPMorgan’s John Normand aren’t convinced that a bumpy presidency would mean trouble for markets, saying that to think a Trump impeachment would derail the markets seems “hasty.”
“Fiscal stimulus, which has been the most-material driver of this year’s step up in US growth and corporate earnings, would not be reversed if the mid-term elections delivered a Democratic Congress, an impeachment process or eventually a guilty verdict,” Normand wrote in a note to clients. “Neither has the Trump Administration been proposing a deregulatory agenda comparable to Reagan and Clinton’s that requires legislation to deliver transformational change. The agenda is advancing more through personnel, priorities, rules and executive orders, which are important at the sectoral level (Financials, Energy) but not at the macroeconomic one. Thus, rethinking the direction of the economy or financial markets on the prospects for less deregulation under a preoccupied or a different President seems hasty.”
Certainly, there’s a case to be made that markets would nevertheless experience volatility in the near-term. However, there are bigger things out there driving the market in the long run.
“Perhaps there is a tactical case for reducing overweights in Equities versus Bonds this Fall, on a view that a high P/E market is typically vulnerable to drawdown before an event risk,” Normand added. “But the case for strategically underweighting stocks or shifting to long duration is poor unless one believes that prospects for US growth, earnings and the Fed in 2019 rest on this aspect of domestic politics.”
What about Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton?
In the note, Normand emphasized that impeachment “is a process rather than an event, involving several judicial and institutional phases.” And while there have been past examples of disgraced presidencies, they need to be examined individually.
Normand noted that Nixon’s impeachment process began shortly after the First Oil Shock in late 1973 that resulted in recession and rising inflation. Nixon resigned in August 1974. Elsewhere, Clinton’s impeachment in December 1998 was “almost a non-event for the markets” as stocks and credit had already experienced the Asian Crisis, the Russian default, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management that summer.
The “wildcard,” according to Normand, is trade. Trump has authorized tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
“If, at some point, Trump’s Presidency ends prematurely like Nixon’s, the lingering question for EM – or at least the China complex – will be whether the new boss Vice President Pence will be the same as the old boss.”
________
Did anybody watch parts of the interview? Boy oh boy.....
So there’s a lot to unpack here, but I’ll start with the two obvious points.
1. He’s obviously wrong. The economy was rolling before he came into the fold, and didn’t have any sort of impact on the economy until damn near a full year into his term, when the GOP finally passed major legislation in tax cuts.
And a 12billion dollar loan we just gave the farmers says I dunno if trump being impeached will really make anything worse.
2. Clearly trump is shook. This is the hardest he’s ever gone with talking about impeachment. He’s now tweeting about the “rigged witch hunt” on a daily basis, sometimes multiple times though the day. Typically, especially with rich people, if you didn’t do anything wrong, you have nothing to fear.
Maybe, but that doesn't mean if it is proven he did something wrong, you don't take measures because you are worried about the market.
I had back in the market for a while, but I went mostly to cash about 3 hours before Manafort and Cohen news came out. Partly because I didn't think Manafort would go good, but mostly because the Dow and Nasdaq are near their highs and even with all of the corps buying back stock, the last 3 times the market reached this level, it pulled back a bit
it was rolling. lets not have revisionist history now.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
If Session has his way nobody will be rolling anything, or smoking, or vaping, or eating gummy bears, cookies, cakes, chocolate bars, and nobody will be using Oils, Sprays, and Tinctures.
Hey trump supporters, can you guys explain to me why so many people surrounding trump are flipping on him?
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
Hey trump supporters, can you guys explain to me why so many people surrounding trump are flipping on him?
Most of them got into politics as a fallback. Now, they are 'not throwin' away their shots' since it was announced that Cirque du Soleil is holding open auditions. I wish them well.
Because without this thinking you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”
The funniest part about this is that after he said "this thinking", he pointed to his head, to imply that he's smart.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
You guys are silly for wanting Trump impeached. Everyone in the world has realized Trump's a paper tiger besides the American media. When Pence has you tasing your gay neighbors in an effort to turn them straight, you're going to miss this orange hindenburg.
You guys are silly for wanting Trump impeached. Everyone in the world has realized Trump's a paper tiger besides the American media. When Pence has you tasing your gay neighbors in an effort to turn them straight, you're going to miss this orange hindenburg.
It’s not a fact of wanting him impeached. It’s more of a need to impeach to save a democracy in decline. Pence may get wrapped up in legal issues as well if he had any knowledge of any of this crap.
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." Thomas Jefferson.
You guys are silly for wanting Trump impeached. Everyone in the world has realized Trump's a paper tiger besides the American media. When Pence has you tasing your gay neighbors in an effort to turn them straight, you're going to miss this orange hindenburg.
It’s not a fact of wanting him impeached. It’s more of a need to impeach to save a democracy in decline. Pence may get wrapped up in legal issues as well if he had any knowledge of any of this crap.
I don't need Trump to be impeached... I haven't been driving for that ... but there needs to be accountability and transparency. If Trump was communicating with the Russians then it needs to be exposed- regardless of how it affects the political landscape or the freaking market. Am I deeply invested in the market? Yes - but my personal finances are secondary. If Trump is a thug who has routinely and systematically ignored the laws of the nation for years and also did so to get into power - we need to know.
Someone with the idea that Cohen and anyone else who flips is doing so to save themselves and Trump is innocent - is on the wrong planet. Heck they are in the wrong solar system.
Last edited by mgh888; 08/24/1810:24 AM.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
I couldn't disagree more. Pence might be puritanic but Trump is dangerous to democracy because of his dictator wannabe strongman beliefs. I think he's sell us out in a heartbeat for a wink and a nod from Putin or Xi.
I can't stand Pence but his type of devil is survivable.
Trump is a clown, period. When he pointed to his head and said that our economy would basically be doomed without his "thinking", I laughed so hard I thought I'd bust a gut. This moron has convinced himself that he is intelligent!
He's out prepping his base for the inevitable at this point. He's a crook, and with Cohen telling all and all the others flipping on him I finally get to tell all the GOPers that have been slamming me for the last 2 years for calling him a crook that it looks like time IS TELLING afterall.
I also don't recall the economy 'rolling' before he took office either.
If Trump got impeached, I doubt Mike Pence would do anything so differently that anything would tank though.
The day Obama took office in 2009, the Dow was 7949.09. on the day Trump took office Jan 20, 2017, the market declined 5 straight days and was still just below 20,000.
That is a pretty good run for 8 years and I made above average returns every one of those 8 years.
Basiclly Rudy G. saying there would be a revolt if Trump is indicted or impeached, is actually inciting violence and rioting.
The American people will be in the streets, when Trump is impeached. They're dancing in Chicago, Down in New Orleans, In New York City. All we need is music, sweet music. There'll be music everywhere. There'll be swinging and swaying and records playing, Dancing in the street!
If Session has his way nobody will be rolling anything, or smoking, or vaping, or eating gummy bears, cookies, cakes, chocolate bars, and nobody will be using Oils, Sprays, and Tinctures.
Sessions is a moron...completely out of touch.....the fact that we have spent billions and billions of dollars going back half a century, actually closing in on a century, and despite all that time, all that money, all the lives destroyed on both sides, and yet drugs are stronger, widely available in every city, county, village, and township in the country, and showing no signs of slowing down.....
not trying to hijack.....just pointing out how much time and money we've totally wasted trying to jam the same square peg in a round hole.....and Sessions still thinks that this is a viable policy, enough so that he wants to double down on the same failed ideas.....why is it so difficult to concede that after 60+ years, our approach to the drugs issue needs to change.....
The only one we need to change is marijuana, all other chemically based drugs need to continue to be illegal.
Weed cures cancer, legal cigarettes cause cancer. Heroin, crack and all that, forget it. Those ought not be legal.
Weed would go a long way towards ending the opioid crisis as it's a better natural pain killer, rather than the stuff the doctors prescribe.
Cocaine and heroin are not chemical based drugs...
I definitely agree marijuana should be legal. I'm also on the bubble that all drugs should be legal. These issues would then tend to sort themselves. If somebody decides to buy a legal drug and kill themselves knowing full well that is possible, then they made that decision. It would also reel in drug companies from pushing opiates as non-addictive drugs, because easy access would make them less expensive and remove the profit motive.
EDIT: And off topic but we could reduce healthcare costs a good bit if pharmacist were allowed to prescribe meds, administer shots, and handle the minor medical issues like colds and flus.
Having universal medical record access between patient, doctors, emergency medical personnel, and pharmacists would go a long way toward making this a real costs and life saver. Doctors would then be able to treat more people with more serious issues that might require testing and more in depth diagnosis.
