DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 21 Steelers 21 The Betting Line

I would post the odds of winning the Super Bowl, but then I would be shouted down that those guys are dumb and don't know as much about the NFL as the guys on this board who live in the Isle of Optimism.

While this is true, the Steelers have been very bad against the line on the road in recent years.

Again, this isnt to say that the Browns win outright. Just that the Line moving and how the Steelers usually perform on the road is indicators that bettors have dwindling faith in Pitt.

I didn't know that. Thanks.

Current Line is CLE +4 .... so the game is getting closer in the view of the odds makers.

I would guess that's a reaction to Bell not being in camp - I know I checked at the weekend and the line was 5 1/2

I think it's going to be a fun game.

My guess is the money is favoring the Steelers enough that the books want to bring in more money on the Browns side of the line.

It could be the other way as well. Maybe more money was being bet on the Browns +7 and the books need more Steeler money.

Betting lines are all about bringing in fairly equal bets on both side of the line. That is how the house doesn't lose.

I think sharp money is going to go with the Steelers as this line keeps coming down.

In your scenario, bookies and odds makers would make Browns more attractive and give them more points .... The line is moving in the exact opposite of what you suggest. I found nd it hard to think the hot money is for the Browns which is why I think it's the Bell news that is driving the change.

The odds makers set the initial line. They try to accurately gauge the number in order to get half the bettors to bet on one team and the other half to wager on the second team. The bookies make their money off of the "juice" and want the betting as close to 50% as possible.

After that, the line moves up or down by where the money is going. In this case, more money has been bet on Cleveland than Pittsburgh, thus the line has moved down.

I never place any importance on what the bettors think, but I do think that the guys who set the odds know what they are doing.

Never take division games in survival leagues, especially week 1.

I agree. If I can pick from only Home Non-divisional games, I will. However, I'm sharing 4 entries with a couple coworkers in a national pool. We're going Packers over Bears AND Saints over Bucs in 2/4. I'm not happy about it, but with early season being so hard to know who teams really are, I didn't veto. I was leaning Lions over Jets, and to double-up on Ravens over Bills, which we did all agree on. Just crossing my fingers at this poin

"Vegas" is neither right nor wrong. They set an initial spread and then adjust based on where the money is going.. if millions of dollars started flowing into taking the Browns and the points, the spread would drop to 6.. then 5.... then 4... and so on... and it would find an equilibrium when the same amount of money started taking the Steelers.. it would have absolutely NOTHING to do with some genius in Vegas suddenly thinking the Browns got better.

Thank you DC. That needed said.

Could of swore I said the same thing earlier? LOL

I see now that a few people made the point just above. Earlier in the thread there were lots of posts on “Vegas” opinion, as if it was an entity making football judgement. Glad everyone is all clear on it.

Geniuses do set the point spreads.

Because extremely well-paid geniuses that study the NFL know more about the likely outcomes of NFL games.

And immense betting resources are controlled by people who employ geniuses.

And it's rare that NFL pointspreads change once set by "Vegas" let alone go "6.. then 5.... then 4... and so on..."

Your argument that betting point spreads is strictly based on dollars ("NOTHING to do with some genius in Vegas") would result in "smart" bettors getting predictably wealthy.

And that just ain't the case.

Historically, with the points, NFL wins/loses are virtually 50/50.

And a lot of people like to gloss over things. Sure, the betting line gets adjusted according to where the money is placed. But that doesn't change the fact that the original line is set bore the first dollar is bet.

I would love to be a fly on the wall when these odds are being set. Just the thinking that goes into it, the process. How much of this is actual football based, and how much is public perception?

But yes, the line will move in the direction to get more people to bet. Right now Vegas wants bettors to put money on the Steelers. It opened in April as Pittsburgh -6.5, and that is pretty much across the board.

Sportsbooks aren't looking to make a huge chunk of money off single plays. As you mentioned, if they can even up the money, they'll profit off the juice alone, as straight spread bets tend to be -110 unless otherwise noted. You're taking 10 percent of either side, regardless of who wins? You're damn right you want that money equal on both sides.

I'm not sure how oddsmaking is done nowadays, but 10-15 years ago, I believe the Stardust had the best oddsmakers in the world. They set their lines and everyone else followed suit.

For those who are talking about sharp bettors, they tend to hit lines immediately (and in some cases, they get access before the public does) and will look right around kickoff for any kind of middle possibilities.

Well said.

Good post.

Recently I was discussing this new era of sports betting with my son. States are going to set their rules individually but will we ever reach a point when any individual can bet with any sportsbook regardless of where they reside?

I would think that regional betting could mean that lines are drastically different across the country. There could be some huge opportunities in the "middling" market.

A simple software program could identify the best opportunities with just a little input by the user, especially on lines that move from one score to two scores.

Getting ready to make my millions...

?????????

If you bet $1000 and LOSE, didn't you just lose $1100?

10% ?????????

If you note, I said it could be the other way and the book wants more steeler money...and you could be right. I wasn't thinking about Bell being out.

If you're asking about "middling" it works like this...

Dallas starts the week favored by 10 over the Browns. The oddsmakers set the line too high anticipating much more action on Dallas. Remember - their only goal is to have even betting on both sides - thus 5% profit on all the action.

As people keep betting heavily on the underdog Browns - "Vegas" has to move the line to even the betting action. Line goes all the way down to 7

You identified the line being too high early and bet $1000 on the Browns +10... Now that it has moved (well, regardless of whether it has moved or not) you also bet $1000 on Dallas -7

If the line never moved you would win one, lose one, and pay the 10% "juice". In most cases you will still pay - even though it did move. That's okay - you just need your event (hitting the middle) to happen once in twenty tries. Bottom line - you can pay the juice 20 times and still break even as long as just once the final score splits the two lines.

38-30 Cowboys = you win $2000

The trick is being able to identify lines that are out of wack as soon as they come out and place an early bet.

What I was talking about above was the day and age (we're almost there now that sports gambling is legal federally) where you can monitor lines regionally and pick and choose, the best places to bet and create the largest middle for yourself. Texas will always have a larger spread for the Cowboys / Browns than Cleveland.

j/c:

I've seen -3.5

It's funny - this is the game that actually had me dig deeper into some research.

About two weeks ago a Steeler fan on my FB timeline made some joke about the Browns when he saw pics of my wife and I at the Browns game. I told him "Steelers will be favored by 4... I'll give you 3 with the Steelers"

I won't say I was shocked to see the line at 7, but knew it was too high, said out loud to my wife "that line should be 4, especially with all the hype from Hard Knocks". I have an uncanny knack for knowing the lines before they're published and a good radar for knowing when they are "off".

Going from 7 to 3.5 is a good game for a "middle" investment. Great chance for a win and a push, if not the "double whammy".

I mean, absolutely... If you're Caesar's Palace, or Mandalay Bay, MGM, etc... Why would you not create an app that could be used by anyone across the country/world, that people could place bets? I think as the country eases up on sports gambling, you could see something like this.

The federal government could also probably limit app usage to those within the state. Kind of like how you see Sports packages block out local broadcasts (forcing you to watch on your regular tv/cable package), they could limit app users to only folks within the state.

Which is where your point comes into play, more localized casinos and sportsbooks having their own app usage. I believe Vegas would start that trend, and the smaller places would follow.

I mean you can already bet online anyway with offshore online betting accounts (which are very well run).

btw, for anyone who is interested in gambling on sports, but not paying money (or at least looking to mess around before getting serious), I use a free website that gives you .50 to start with, and you go from there. You just have to watch 15-30 second ads. If you lose your money, you just watch another ad to get back to .50. It's a really cool site that has gotten better over the years. I had my account up to 85$ a few years ago after destroying the 2014 world cup.

If anyone wants an invite, just pm me. No credit cards or anything. I think you can cash out after your balance gets to 20.

Would be a good practice point for anyone who wants to learn how to bet on sports.

I think I know the site you are speaking of.