NFL predictions: SportsLine's Power Rankings for all 32 teams and best value plays for 2018
Super Bowl rematch? SportsLine says the Patriots and Eagles are the two best teams in 2018
Jared Dubin mugshot by Jared Dubin @jadubin5 Aug 31, 2018 • 4 min read
The start of the 2018 NFL season is less than a week away. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons will kick off the year at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Eagles will begin their title defense. Nobody knows exactly how the season will play out, but that's why we here at CBSSports.com have SportsLine.
SportsLine runs season simulations based on how each team would perform against all 31 other teams in the league on a neutral field, then power ranks the teams in order of how they perform in those simulations. That data informs SportsLine's season-long win predictions, playoff odds, division odds, and Super Bowl odds.
Below, you'll find SportsLine's preseason power rankings for the 2018 season, which see the defending champion Eagles check in at No. 2 behind the team they defeated in Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots.
Team Power Rank Sim % New England Patriots 1 71.8% Philadelphia Eagles 2 63.9% Pittsburgh Steelers 3 61.7% Minnesota Vikings 4 60.7% New Orleans Saints 5 58.6% Green Bay Packers 6 58.5% Dallas Cowboys 7 57.8% Atlanta Falcons 8 57.2% Jacksonville Jaguars 9 56.6% Los Angeles Rams 10 56.5% Baltimore Ravens 11 56.0% Carolina Panthers 12 53.9% Los Angeles Chargers 13 52.5% Seattle Seahawks 14 52.1% Tennessee Titans 15 51.6% Kansas City Chiefs 16 51.0% Detroit Lions 17 50.2% San Francisco 49ers 18 46.9% Houston Texans 19 46.4% Arizona Cardinals 20 46.2% Oakland Raiders 21 45.6% Washington 22 44.6% Chicago Bears 23 44.2% New York Giants 24 43.0% Buffalo Bills 25 42.0% Indianapolis Colts 26 41.6% Cincinnati Bengals 27 41.2% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 40.3% Denver Broncos 29 39.6% Cleveland Browns 30 37.3% New York Jets 31 36.3% Miami Dolphins 32 34.1%
The Patriots, Steelers, and Jaguars are the only AFC teams that rank in the top 10 of SportsLine's power rankings. They're joined by seven teams from the NFC, including two each from the NFC East (Eagles, Cowboys), North (Vikings, Packers), and South (Saints, Falcons). Conversely, the bottom 10 group of teams includes seven teams from the AFC -- including each of the bottom four -- and just three from the NFC.
Think you're a football expert? It's time to prove it. Compete against friends, family and co-workers or put your football knowledge to the test against the NFL Today cast. Play 2018 Football Pick 'Em now!
SportsLine's win projections provide a slightly different picture than do the power rankings. The schedules for each team obviously affect their actual winning percentages in the simulations, and you'll see several changes in the projected standings below.
AFC Wins NFC Wins New England Patriots 11.5 Philadelphia Eagles 10.9 Jacksonville Jaguars 9.9 Los Angeles Rams 9.8 Pittsburgh Steelers 9.9 Minnesota Vikings 9.6 Los Angeles Chargers 9.2 New Orleans Saints 9.3 Baltimore Ravens 9.8 Green Bay Packers 9.1 Kansas City Chiefs 8.6 Atlanta Falcons 8.7
This simulation gives us two new playoff teams in the AFC, with the Chargers and Ravens replacing the Titans and Bills, and one team in the NFC, with the Packers replacing the Panthers. The teams that jump in the standings here include the Jaguars, who move past the Steelers due to their easier schedule; and the Rams, who had a 59 percent chance to win their division and thus leap to the No. 2 seed in the East. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Falcons jump over the Titans and Cowboys, respectively, to grab the No. 6 seed in their conferences.
The simulations give the top five teams in the AFC each a 65 percent chance or better to make the playoffs, while another five teams (Chiefs, Titans, Texans, Broncos and Colts) have between a 25 and 50 percent chance of getting into the postseason. The NFC is a bit more well-balanced. The Eagles and Rams are over 70 percent, but the Vikings, Saints, Packers, Falcons, Cowboys, Panthers, Lions, 49ers and Seahawks all have playoff odds somewhere between 30 and 65 percent.
On the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Raiders (6.3 wins, 12.5 percent chance at the playoffs), Bears (5.9 wins, 5.3 percent), and Giants (6.2 wins, 7.2 percent) are predicted to disappoint despite a lot of offseason buzz, while the Browns are projected for an incredible 5.5-win improvement but still finish last in the AFC in the simulations.
The simulations have five teams beating their Las Vegas over/under by more than 0.5 wins, making them strong value plays on the positive side: Patriots, Lions, Jaguars, Cardinals and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Steelers, Buccaneers, Bears, Giants, Falcons, Texans, Bengals, Packers and Raiders each fall short of their over/under by at least half a win, making some of them potentially strong negative plays.
Of course, you're likely curious about Super Bowl odds. There are seven teams SportsLine gives a 5 percent chance or better of winning Super Bowl LIII. In order, that's the Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Jaguars, Vikings, Rams and Saints. Here, the Pats and Eagles look like the best plays given their respective Super Bowl odds at sports books.
I don't bet much (and won't this week) ... but I'd be heavy on Pittsburgh and the over.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
You're "out" because you are full of crap on this one.
If you are so much smarter than the boys in Vegas, why aren't you a millionaire? They aren't infallible and there are outliers, but they make money every single day on schmucks who think they know more than they do.
It means 22.8% of people in survivor pools have picked Pittsburgh this week. That's a really high number because you can literally pick ANY of the 16 winners this week.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
It means 22.8% of people in survivor pools have picked Pittsburgh this week. That's a really high number because you can literally pick ANY of the 16 winners this week.
you only need to pick ONE team to win each week.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
Some would rather focus on exceptions to the rule rather than the rule itself. Like you said, if Vegas wasn't right FAR more times than they're wrong, they'd be out of business.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
I think I read somewhere, and what was said and I concur nobody is going to believe Cleveland is better until they win. After all their 1-32 over the past 2 seasons.
Having said that it still doesn't mean they will lose on Sunday, nor does an improved roster mean they will win, I think they got a chance and for that reason I will watch hope and cheer for them to do just that beating Pittsburg to start the season is a perfect place to start and we got nothing to lose.
I have always thought of myself as being a realist, I think we can win I really do in fact I think we got a shot to win every game we play this year so thats an improvement all by itself.
So here is to hope, and to beating the Steelers to start the year.
BTTB
AKA Upbeat Dawg
Can't believe I am in a group that is comprised of the best NOT just fans but people on the planet.
Count me as one who likes the Browns and the over (but only taking the Browns ATS). I think the Steelers at 22.8% of the survivor pool is insane. If I played in a survivor pool, I'm taking Baltimore to follow a long term strategy of fading the Bills.
I'm having a harder time sorting out which thoughts on the Browns are real and which are emotional this year (thanks Hard Knocks), but I think we can win week one against the Steelers. Haley against his former team that has a weaker defense, Big Ben historically struggling on the road, LeVeon still not reporting to camp...
4.5 seems low to me ... i'd take Pitt with that and run
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
I liked the UNDER a lot when it was up at 48. 45.5 I still like, but not as much.
I think that Eagles game offense is probably a good approximation of what we look like...maybe 3 scoring drives, 13-17 points. And perhaps I'm overestimating our DL and/or underestimating their OL, but I don't think they're going to explode offensively, either...4 scoring drives, 20-24 points.
I watch sports because I want it to be unpredictable.
I loved it when Buster Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson.
I hated it when the Tribe lost to the Yankee's last year after winning 22 games(one of the most incredible things I have seen in sports) and being up 2-0 in a five games series. And then in game five at home having Kluber on the mound.
I don't care what Vegas says. I don't give a damn what the "expert analysts" say or who they pick.
All I care about is competition.
Over the last two years the Browns rarely competed. They earned the record. It stunk. It was embarrassing. Truly painful. Sunday's felt like losing. Each week was self inflicted torture. After games I questioned myself. Why watch this? ==================================================
Today I feel good. Hard Knocks tonight. I wish they would cover our whole season.
I am engaged. I like this team. I like Dorsey and the staff. I want Hue to win. I want him to prove to the league he can coach.
More than anything I want the Browns to be respected. I am sick of losing.
I truly believe this team can compete. If they lose; they will go down fighting, clawing till the last whistle. And hopefully leaving the other team in pain.
Screw the analysts. Screw Vegas. Let's repeat Bud Carson's first game a 51-0 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sept. 10, 1989.
i like the idea of hard knocks through the whole season...you can see alot of the ups and downs from week to week. Follow stories through the whole season.
Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
i like the idea of hard knocks through the whole season...you can see alot of the ups and downs from week to week. Follow stories through the whole season.
Maybe eventually we'll have that for each team, at least on a smaller level
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
i like the idea of hard knocks through the whole season...you can see alot of the ups and downs from week to week. Follow stories through the whole season.
Maybe eventually we'll have that for each team, at least on a smaller level
What I'd really like is for the cameras to be rolling during the draft (and days leading up to it) ... and then show it the following week when it can be more open with information
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
yeah the NFL tries to be relevant year round and giving the fans more access to everything would be a step towards that...i really hate how during camp you barely get a 2 min video. I guess thats just how it is, but I agree, more access in offseason would be nice too
Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
I think not only the betting crowd, but just the football general crowd is becoming less confident in the steelers.
Mike Tomlin is a good coach, but he's not this once in a generation talent that people (especially browns fans) make him out to be. But, because he's in pittsburgh, he gets tons of leeway.
They're not as good defensively as they were. Ben seems like he's one hit away from the nursing home. L'Veon Bell and his absence shouldn't be overlooked.
The one thing you can hang your hat on, is Antonio Brown. I hate the Steelers, but I love that guy's game. He's an incredible player, and a guy that eats up when the Browns are on the schedule.
There is no doubt that we are probably a bit over-inflated because Hard Knocks brought to attention that this team is really talented, but it won't matter if our coach and QB can't do their part, and in the past, both have failed. Doesn't really matter how much talent you have on the rest of the roster if those two are a liability.
I think the play I like the most is under. I just really see a sloppy 17-13 type game that comes down to the final few minutes.
Week 1 lines are where the pros make a ton of money. The oddsmakers don't really have any information to create these lines, on top of the fact that they were initially released in freaking April. Beyond that, the lines get adjusted based on the money coming in, but even then, the damage is already kinda done.
Every year, Brown's fans talk about how they are in decline.
I think it might be wise to stifle talk until we actually beat them on the field.
Yes, but my comment was more about the perception from around the league.
And honestly, factor in that they've literally been handed two wins the last few years against the Browns.
They are definitely not the monster they were. None of the actual good teams in the AFC really fear them when playoff time comes.
Obviously, from our perspective, I agree with what you're saying, but there is zero doubt that the football world in general doesn't take them as serious as years' past.
...
