DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Rookie QB's Mid Season Review

so, we're mid way through the season, I wanted to take a look at how the 1st round rookie QB's were looking in multiple categories. especially with this draft class, there were tons of heated convo's about who we should and shouldn't take in the 1st round.

So far, while only one hasn't started, all 5 of the 1st rounders have played significant time this season. only 1 has missed some time due to injury in Allen. also, i will include rushing stats since we are in the era of mobile QB's, and picking up 1st downs with their legs has become game changers around the league.

lets dig in:

Baker Mayfield:

7 games played, 1768 passing yards, 60% accuracy, 6.67 yards per pass, 10 TDs, 7 Int, 2 fumbles, 81.5 QB rating, 40.9 QBR.

91 yards rushing, 6.1 per rush, 4 1st downs, 2 Fumbles.

Lamar Jackson:

9 games played, 87 passing yards, 58.3% accuracy, 7.25 yards per pass, 1 TD, 0 Int,108.7 QB rating, 48.8 QBR

139 yards rushing, 5.0 per rush, 1 TD, 12 1st downs, 2 fumbles.

Josh Allen:

6 games played, 832 passing yards, 54% accuracy, 5.99 per pass, 2 TDs, 5 Int, 1 fumble, 61.8 QB rating, 28.9 QBR.

155 yards rushing, 4.4 per rush, 3 TDs, 12 1st downs, 3 fumbles,

Sam Darnold:

9 games played, 1934 passing yards, 55% accuracy, 6.69 per pass, 11 TDs, 14 Int, 68.3 QB rating, 31.4 QBR

61 yards rushing, 2 yards per rush, 1 TD, 10 1st downs, 4 Fumbles

Josh Rosen:

6 games played, 1072 passing yards, 55.6% accuracy, 6.34 per pass, 5 TDs, 6 Int, 3 fumbles, 69.9 QB rating, 37.1 QBR

48 yards rushing, 5.3 per rush, 4 1st downs

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so those are the stats for the 5 QB's taken in the 1st round. just to get the discussion going.

obviously, Darnold has the most experience, as he started week 1. that being said, he's pulling a Kizer in which he is leading ALL QB's in picks with 14. Darnold
vs baker was THE most discussed prospects on this board. Darnold, as many predicted, wasn't just gonna magically stop being a turnover machine. Darnold has certainly flashed his potential, but unfortunately is too raw at the moment. and sunday's game was just flat out bad for him. of the QB's who are starting/played full games, he has arguable the best talent to work with of the rookies.

Baker mayfield has the highest completion %, best TD-int ratio, best QBR, and best QB rating of all starting rookies. he plays on IMO the 2nd best talented offense for rookies. he has done more than flashed potential, but he's still holding on to the ball too long, sometimes bails out the pocket for no reason, and looks inaccurate at times.

basically, like a rookie. but he's already beaten Darnold head to head, and beat the ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the league.

Josh Rosen's numbers are surprising, especially since after watching 2 games he's played in, its clear he has the worst offense to work with. i mean....he's got a david johnson who's facing stacked boxes, an old fitzgerald and thats it. and yet he already has a comeback win on his resume just like Baker. Its actually scaring to think about what he's gonna do when he actually gets some talent to work with. cause he's making things happen that just shouldn't be happening.

Josh Allen is.....crazy lol. he has made a ton of "what the hell is he thinking" throws, but then that game against the Vikings where he just did whatever he damn well pleased against them was one for the bills culture. unfortunately an elbow injury has sidelined him, but right now he certainly shown the ability to be the next Cam Newton, as his ability to run with his size is crazy. he has Shady and thats it.

Last, but certainly not least, is Lamar jackson. he's been playing spot duty since week 1, coming in on special packages and mostly running the ball. he has already shown the electricity that he had at Louisville, and has had huge 1st down plays for the Ravens. even when he doesn't actually touch the ball, it has opened up the field for guys like Collins because defenses have no choice but to account for him. also, while he hasn't thrown much at all, he certainly flashed an nfl arm. the ravens have lost 3 of their last 4 since losing to us, and if the downward slide continues, we could see Lamar starting the rest of the games if the ravens grow impatient with Flacco.

overall, this rookie class could very well be one for the ages. obviously these QB's still need atleast another 2 seasons to truly get an idea of what and who they will be, but as of now, Darnold clearly looks the worst of the 5.

Nick Mullens?

Rookie QBs often don't succeed because their teams are terrible. As we see above that is the case this year. Given that all these guys are on crappy teams, our QB has performed the best (I believe PFF has him first by a wide margin).

Yes, so far by the way of starters, we’ve made the right choice.

Darnold appears to be going backwards right now.

We dont deserve the credit Dorsey does. I wanted Darnold.

Nick Mullens isn't a rookie. He was an UDFA in 2017, so he's a 2nd year player.

Yeah but still. . .

He played a Raiders team that completely gave up. They laid down, and just gave up.

If you want to see what a team looks like when they just give up on their coach, that was a textbook example.

It's way too early to evaluate all of these guys.

Most on here assume Baker is a franchise qb, but I don't think that is a given.

I think he has a shot, but it's too early to say he is a franchise guy, just as it is too early to say he won't be.

For all the guys that liked Darnold, I'm not sure what you saw that made you like him.

I thought Rosen was the best by far. Thought he showed a lot in college that would translate plus he was accurate.

I thought the worst was Allen. Somewhere in the middle was Baker, Darnold, Jackson...probably in that order.

I'm not trained to know what to look for so this is just naked eye test stuff, but I am curious what people saw in Darnold. He may end up being good, maybe the best of the bunch. I just don't know how you tell that from his college tape.

I question Baker's long ball. But it could be the receivers.

I think that is actually one of his strengths.

His biggest issue are his pre and post-snap reads.

He is missing some receivers by throwing high, but that is probably due to his lack of height.

He's missing high even after rolling out and no one in front of him.

I think he's just playing too fast. Getting too excited, not relying on fundamentals. Williams commented on it in his presser today.

This could be revisionist history but if memory serves me right, he didn’t miss with a lot of high throws those first couple games. Then he started to feel a lot of pressure from the rush forba couple games. Once that happened , it seemed like he started to hurry his throws. With that he feet stopped being set and that has led to the high over throws.

Again that’s just from memory about the earlier games

When he came in for the Jets game he had the benefit of not really thinking about the game. He was just winging it. In the weeks since he's had his coaches in his ear and now he's way over thinking things.

The biggest disservice the coaches did to Baker was the complete overreaction to the Chargers game where they tried to turn him into a check down Charlie the following week. Prior to that Baker was converting 3rd and long (10+) like he was DA. And he was converting them at an excellent clip making plus level throws by throwing guys open. Anyone remember the 3rd and long conversion to Higgins on the sideline in the Bait game? Higgins wasn't really open but Baker dropped, set, trusted what he saw, and made a super plus level throw that showed those flashes you are hoping to see from a rookie QB.

Now, we are lucky if Baker even throws it to the sticks on 3rd down. Since that overreaction his accuracy has gone down as well.

j/c:

Yep, I think blaming the OL for his woes is very unfair. All qbs face pressure. It's part of the job. He is not facing an inordinate amount of pressure. Watch a Seattle game, a Detroit game, an Arizona game, etc...

You mentioned earlier issues with pre and post snap reads. I think this touches on both. If a defense blitzes a lot early the qb needs to recognize where the pressure will be coming from to exploit the hole in the D. Baker came into last Sunday being sacked 16 or 17 times in the last four games. As the D sees that the early pressure is getting to the qb they can give the same pressure look, but dial it back adding a presence underneath and in the flat where the rookie would usually look to checkdown to, creating a mistrust of his pre and post snap assessment?

I'm not quite sure I understand the question. I think I do, but I'm not sure. Will you clarify the part after "the qb needs to recognize where the pressure will be coming from to exploit the hole in the D?"

I guess I'm looking for an outline of the process of how a play works through the pre snap assessment through postsnap. I've noticed defenses seem to bring a lot of pressure early in games (just my opinion no stats to back it up). So as the qb comes to the line part of his pre snap assessment is recognizing where the potential pressure is coming from. Then he and the C? make the necessary adjustments so all blockers know who to account for. The qb and receivers need to be on the same page as to where the hot read lies, as every blitz leaves an opening in the defense that can be exploited.

Thanks for clarifying.

I think you have a good understanding of the pre-snap read thing. I'll try an be brief.

The QB comes to the LOS, looks over the defense and considers what play is called. Understand, that nowadays, most guys have two calls and they can check into the second play. You'll hear the "kill, kill, kill" thing at times.

The qb has worked w/his coaches all week on the tendencies of the the opponent based on formations, down and distance, game clock, where they are at on the field, etc. QBs can make a lot of progress in this area as they become more experienced.

The qb is primarily responsible for the unblocked blitzer. The C is responsible for calling out stunts, delayed blitzes, where interior blitzers are coming from, etc. The qb and the receiver, whether it be a WR, TE, or RB have to make a hot read based on the qbs call to exploit the area where the unblocked blitzer is coming from. Baker needs to get better in this area.

Post-snap reads are another animal. You really don't coach this. You can help by identifying which coverages they typically play in certain situations, but the key is the processing speed of the qb. Most of us agree that is an innate skill. It's not based on intelligence in an academic or studying sense, but rather it is how fast one's mind can process what he sees from both his guys and the defenders. It's very hard to get better at this because it's innate.

Coaches can disguise that weakness by having the qb only seeing half the field or 2/3 of it, or by rolling the qb out, running a lot more RPO's, etc.......but, it's going to be tough for a qb to have long-term success if they can't adequately make post-snap reads. The qbs might have early success, but they typically fizzle out. Guys like RGIII, Kaep, Foles, come to mind.

Does that all make sense, or not? Ask me questions and add your own thoughts. It's a pretty good conversation and much preferable to the crap that polluting most of the threads.

My reading comprehension is whacked. Just noticed you asked for an explanation AFTER pre snap. As the game wears on and a defense sees that the pressure is giving a rookie "happy feet" they can present the same look pre snap, but drop a player into coverage based on where the rookie likes to go. Maybe they roll the coverage to one side of the field where previously they had left a corner in one in one. Maybe they man up a linebacker or strong safety on the running back to the flat and blitz him or float him if his man stays into block. Or maybe they float a man in coverage underneath.

Yeah man............teams will show a Cover 2 look and then switch to Cover 6. Or, they might show Cover 1 and then switch to Cover 3.

Thanks, more questions regarding hot reads and how the qb and receivers see the play. Need to do some homework help, but will edit this post after.

If you do the research, make sure to look up both hot reads and sight adjustments. Both are important. I'll try and answer any questions you may have.

Thanks Vers. I feel like I'm hijacking Swish's thread.To get back on topic; where do you guys think the breakdown comes within a play for a rookie qb? I think if a rookie sees the field he should be proficient at pre snap reads. However, maybe the breakdown comes with a lack of familiarity with a system or individual receiver and trusting where they will be (rounding off a route too short could result in a high throw?). Maybe the qb recognizes pressure, but gets fooled by the secondary as a safety comes up underneath or flashes to the flat. How does Mayfield compare to Rosen and Darnold regarding post snap decision making?

I have an opinion on which qb makes the best pre and post-snap reads but I don't want to get lambasted again.

I will say that it's too early to make meaningful comparisons on these qbs. We can have opinions and such, but it's very early.

I like what I see from Mayfield so far. I think not having Higgins hurt as well.

I think BM will be a good QB but to get better he will need better playmakers around him especially a #1 WR.

Nice read - thanks.

I have only seen Darnold play twice - I have not seen Rosen for more than a 1/4 and have not seen anything of Allen.

While it's way too soon to project the career any of these QB's will have - we all know there is a rush to evaluate rookies performances. Baker is doing as well or better than you would expect or hope even for the #1 pick in the draft. He's done some things really well and he's shown rookie mistakes and areas that need to be improved as well.

My biggest take away is that he has lots of arm talent and has been very accurate at times. He's always looking downfield and wanting to throw - running is a very last option. The game is not too big for him - he came in and took control of the offense ... he's obviously a hard worker and works at being the best he can be. Can't ask for much more - where his ceiling is at this point is anyone's guess. His accuracy seemed to take a dip in the last 3 games and he seemed to stagnate under Haley's play calling - I liked Kitchens working with BM and running a scheme to accentuate his early skill set.

I'm very happy we have Baker - and wouldn't swap him for any other rookie QB at this point. Not sure what percentage of drops other QB's have suffered - but I have to believe that Baker's drop rate from his receivers leads this group, which would create a little further separation between BM and others at this point. From what I saw of Darnold, he looks like there is every reason to expect him to be good (or very good). No idea about the other two - Allen was not very accurate in college and I don't expect him to be accurate in the NFL... he might be better than Kizer but he reminds me of Kizer. All the physical traits - but lacking one of the most important traits: accuracy.

I've seen Bakers height come into play more than a few times this season. Even on the Duke TD last week, he almost had to jump to be able to drive the ball down.

j/c

Baker is 1" shorter than Aaron Rodgers and 1" taller than Drew Brees.

The C gets pushed back into the pocket and the Ts allow regular pressure...Baker could be 6'4" and that'd still be a problem.

I've read elsewhere an opinion that Baker's ankle is still off from stepping on the 1st down marker awhile back and he's not comfortable stepping into it. Could be a part of the problem...could be that he's shorter than ideal.

Could be but other QBs have that same tendency. Cam Newton comes to mind as a guy who, when he misses, almost always sails high.. that's where the majority of his INTs come from, hitting the safety in the chest who is 10 yards behind the play because he threw it too high.

Agree, and I maybe wrong, but for me it usually seems that guys with stronger arms when they miss its usually high. They tend to put a little too much mustard on some of those and they sail high.

Let me say this and I am not about to start arguing with Homers.

Jarvis Landry has not even been close to the Landry we saw in Miami, for whatever reason.

David Njoku is terrible, he is….dang it who was that white guy we got from Green Bay in the Mangini years…..anyway he is a slow, tall wide receiver who drops passes and doesn’t get separation. He is more liability than he is asset when he is on the field. Frankly, I want to see more Devalve and Fells at least they are well rounded. 45 catches on 75 targets?

Damion Ratley is a curse. The curse of the Browns absolute lack of any semblance of depth. Undrafted, rookie WR’s starting in the NFL? An absolute abomination and a recipe for poor QB play.

Antonio Callaway being counted on as anything more than a “stretch the play” guy….is a joke, that kid is 1 year maybe 2 away from being Travis Benjamin (who also took multiple years to develop).

This group is garbage and frankly, the best of the rookie QB groups, which makes it even harder to know. They are 2 years away.


Don’t even get me started on these tackles.



Then Baker:
He is slow on his progressions.
Multiple times a game he does not properly identify the blitz.
I’ve seen him improperly identify the Mike more than once this season.




Between his own rookie lapses and the sloppy penalties, dropped passes, lack of using Duke Johnson for 8 games, bad routes, horrible blocking…… I am pretty impresses he has stayed upright and healthy, much less produced some nice plays.

He’s short, he is going to need to work around that, but everything else he does...he does well, he has a very bright future, but the franchise needs to help him out because anyone can see he's a year away from being even ready to start and fully grasp NFL defenses.

Its too early to say if Mayfield is a franchise Qb or not. He has potential to be a good QB, but will he remains to be seen.

Everyone here knows I wasn't high on taking Mayfield in the draft. There are questions about his height and his mobility(4.84 for Mayfield vs 4.92 for Rosen, and Rosen is considered a statue in the pocket)

Now if someone would have put a gun to my head and forced me to pick a QB in the 2018 draft I would have chosen Josh Rosen for the following reasons:

1. He is 6'4 - No issues seeing over the line.
2. Has a pretty good pocket presence and is very comfortable throwing from the pocket. nothing cute here, just a typical drop back and throw QB.
3. Jim Mora was his coach in UCLA so he was already getting NFL professional level coaching in college.
4. Rosen already had many of the mechanic issues that most rookies need to work on already fixed such as plating feeting, throwing motion, etc.

I am a big believer that to be successful you MUST remove chance from the equation as much as possible and limit the variables to ones that are known and can be evaluated without chance.

Us Taking Baker Mayfield as high as we did is a risk because only ONE QB in the modern era below 6'2 has worked out and thats Drew Brees...for every 1 Drew Brees you have hundreds of failures. Doug Flutie was moderately successful late in his career, but thats really about it.

the more I watch Mayfield and Rosen, the more i think we made the wrong choice.

Now I'll make it know that I didn't want Rosen either due to injury issues and his use of braces on his legs/knee, however if i was forced to pick one, Rosen would have been the choice simply because he has the least amount of cards stacked against him to be successful.

You can overcome physical things like lack of height and lack of arm strength in high school, and even in college, but doing so in the NFL is a very tall order that not very many people have been able to achieve regardless of position played.

I am in a wait and see mode. Mayfield has done ok, but i really liked what I have seen of Rosen. The kid looks like the best Qb to come out of UCLA since Aikman in 89. My gut tells me that if we were taking a QB, he should have been the one we picked.

You take Rosen I will keep Baker

I'll keep Baker over Rosen as well. Darnold has not looked good of late. Lamar Jackson can't even throw. Allen looked below average.

Too early to tell, but maybe none of them will be great. Baker looks the best thus far, but still has holes.

Baker's got the Moxy that many great QBs have. Not all, maybe not even most, but still many.

Rosen has the intelligence that elite QBs possess.

Darnold has a good game all around, but nothing truly great. Matt Stafford/Ryan ceiling imo.