DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus The incredible U.S.-to-China soybean nosedive, in one chart

Here's where I think it's skewed.

I don't believe anyone ever claimed that tariffs would help decrease the deficit. I believe everyone was well aware that during the tariffs the trade deficit would increase or at best stay fairly stable.

The proposal as I understood it, was that once a resolution was reached on the tariffs it would improve the trade deficit. That by reaching agreements on new trade deals it would work out in our favor.

Now I doubt it actually works out that way. I've said several times that nations like China are controlled firmly by their government. They can hold out without paying a political price. Their leaders can stand firm on tariffs and still stay in power. Americans have a desire for immediate gratification. When prices rise, which is exactly what tariffs cause, they will become impatient. They will not deal with it over the long haul. There will be a political price to pay.

Whether I'm right or wrong is yet to be determined. But trying to draw any conclusion as to how this will work out "during the Tariffs" doesn't come close to addressing what or how this was ever supposed to work.

So is it accurate in what it does say? Yes. Yet what it does say varies greatly from what was proposed in the first place.

U.S. confirms China soybean sale, but size disappoints

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/usda-confirms-u-soybean-sales-155407964.html

So basically, China bought the soybeans just to buy it. This isn’t sustainable. And I’m worried that we’re gonna have to give the farmers another bailout package.

Eh, don't sweat it.

Yes, prices for soy beans are at a 10 year low.

Yes, China only bought 1.13 million tons. In your article, the guy is quoted as saying "there is talk of another 5 million tons in the next few days."

And also this: "But there needs to be a lot more as well, especially if you consider it in a normal, typical year, we'll be selling 30 to 35 million metric tonnes to China."


From a different article I read recently, China is buying much more from Russia than they have in the past.

However, the u.s. has been selling soy beans to Brazil, Brazil processes the beans, and sells them to China as well.

yes, as I stated, beans are at a 10 year low right now. Not good.

But lets face it - someone is buying soy beans. The rest of the world can't make up our production overnight. And, China needs them to feed their people, and their animals.


I know an awful lot of farmers, and SO FAR, none of them are panicking. They aren't happy with the price, of course.

Simple solution....dont plant so many acres of soybeans...farmers control production....over producing lowers price....cut production to 80% of demand while ensuring US demand is met first...that drives soybean prices higher and forces countries to re value the importance of American farm products...ain't our fault you cant grow food...force these countries to be at our whim

Simple solutions to complex problems.

How conservative. No wonder y’all policies never work.

Are you a farmer?

World wide production hasn't changed much, really. It's just that now, China isn't buying as much from the u.s. They've changed, and are buying from Russia, AND buying u.s. soybeans from Brazil.

Now, if RUssia is shipping of soybeans to China now, what are previous buyers of Russian soybeans doing for feed?

The grain market is one of the biggest guessing games there is. Sell at today's price? Go for futures?

I know the price for u.s. soybeans is currently at a 10 year low. Like I said, I know of no farmers around here that are panicking. Not selling directly to China? Other places are buying. Price isn't great.

But trust that the soybeans are needed.

Local farmers grow what is needed locally and it changes from year to year.

It's really only corporate farms that produce on a scale large enough for export and quite frankly I don't care about them because they are the ones most likely to grow things in ways that are bad for the environment, use illegal immigrants, and try to muscle out local farmers by flooding markets with excess goods until they go bankrupt so they can buy their land dirt cheap.

It's the small farmer that needs protection. Not corporate farms.

In a world with ZERO competition that 'might' work. But here is a list of the top ten soybean producing countries, and I have a feeling somebody else would fill the void happily.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/world-leaders-in-soya-soybean-production-by-country.html

Like Swish said, there are no simple solutions. Creative thinking and complex problem solving are not GOPer strong suits. They are best at lying and being scared of everything. True conservatism no longer exists because you can't live in the past and compete. Now you just have corporatists and elitists posing as conservatives.

I get nostalgic all the time, because there used to be so much more opportunity for the working class and small businesses. I miss the mom and pop businesses I grew up with but I'm not giving up Amazon, Walmart, or major grocery stores to bring back the trading posts, five and dimes, or the general store.

That makes China pretty smart. We sell the beans to Brazil with no tariff. China buys the beans from Brazil with no tariff. China just totally avoided our tariffs by using a third party go between.

100% correct.

Except it might not mean exactly what you think it means.

While our selling price IS lower, it doesn't necessarily mean China's price is cheaper over all.

Think about it: Shipping to Brazil costs money. Then the processing costs money. Then shipping to China costs money.

I don't know that the price is really any cheaper. But what China does accomplish by doing this is refusing to do business with the U.S.

While in the end it doesn't really mean much because the amount we sold is the same amount. But on paper it increases the trade deficit by them not buying directly from us. See, I think the Chinese are pretty smart.

They know Individual 1 has concentrated his message on the trade deficit and how he's going to fix it. Firstly, when your consumers but five times as many Chinese goods as Chinese buy American goods, there's going to be a huge trade deficit. It's just in the math.

As of now, our trade deficit with China is higher than it's ever been. And as long as that trend continues, Individual 1's message is falling flat. I think China is well aware of that. So for them, buying through a third party accomplishes two things.

1. They still get the grain they need and want.

2. By buying it via a third party, it doesn't show up as trade with the U.S. and help equalize the trade deficit.

Look, I'm not trying to argue here.

My point in this whole thread has been "China needs our beans to feed their people"

You say China is smart. They are buying our beans, but paying (probably) more by having to do it from a third party.

Russia has also upped their shipments of beans to China.

Now, unless there is a glut in the market, other countries are going to be/and or are picking up the deficiency - very possibly by buying from the u.s.

This is simply a matter of supply and demand.

The price, as I have stated, is at a 10 year low. (u.s. beans) But, China is still buying them - just paying to have them and the products shipped somewhere else first.

Your comment about the u.s. buying 5 times as much from China as they buy from us is excellent.

And, it goes to what I've been trying to say for years!

Americans want to be paid more, get more benefits, more paid time off, etc. That's all well and good. I (emphasized) want to earn more.

But, Americans want to earn more in their jobs so they can buy Chinese made products cheaper.


Just watch on here. When t.v's, or electronics come up, so, so many talk about how cheap they bought there X. Made in China, or some Asian country.

Yet, everyone wants to be paid more by the American Company that employs them.

I get it. It's a global market, right?

Check out the people on here: there's a ton of IT guys, and code writers. That's where the money is now, right? (unless you're in insurance, banking, or the health care field)

Those jobs are so easily shipped off, at little cost compared to manufacturing jobs.

Anyway, I'm rambling, I know.

China needs our beans, and they get beans from somewhere else, that creates a need somewhere else. Maybe, and obviously now, at a reduced rate.

But I promise, it will come back.

(and the grain market in general is so complicated it blows my mind, with futures contracts, etc)

Lol. They’d feed their people rice until U.S. farmers revolted and trump knows it. China and n Korea are masters at starving their own. trump lost the trade war already. he backed down like a whinny little ..well you know.

See y’all in the wall wars next. Another loss for trump. Mexico will pay for the wall.

I didn't think my tone was argumentative at all.

Well arch, this has been a trend for some time in respect to buying Chinese products. Part of the problem, as I see it, is due to wages of the average American.

Let's use GM as an example. Delco was once a subsidiary of GM. Wages were on par with GM contracts. That was old off and became Delphi. As such, wages and benefits were all cut. There has been a lot more outsourcing of parts to non union companies as concessions have risen among unions. Tens of thousands of jobs are now producing American auto parts at a fraction of what those same parts were being manufactured at under union wages. The minimum wage has been stagnant and not kept up with inflation for so long the buying power of many Americans has decreased significantly.

Now we both know that unions abused their power. The original purpose of unions was good but over time was misused and abused. So that's not even a subject we need to travel down.

The average median household income in the U.S. is $61,372 projected for 2018. Now we both know that there are a lot of families that earn much less than that. Let's say a family of four living on $50,000 with three kids.

At that income, between housing, taxes, insurance, food costs and other average expenses, could you afford to buy all American products living with that income?

Now I realize that greed and simply wanting to hoard money is a big part of the problem as well. But it's hard to expect people to "buy American" when our economy as a whole doesn't provide the income to allow a family to afford those products.

And I agree with you in terms of supply and demand, but you never seemed to address my points. As long as China can buy soybeans from a third party, on paper they didn't do anything to help our trade deficit. Their government doesn't have elections. Their government doesn't pay for hardships their people endure. That isn't how it works here. If the Chinese government can cause Trump to lose the trade war temporarily, let's say until 2020, it could help create a situation that costs a political price here.

They can play the long game. Their people have no say. The American people don't have the patience for that. And they do have a say.

Your tone wasn't argumentative. We were talking.

We have a trade deficit with China. Correct.


Mainly because u.s. companies ship manufacturing jobs over seas where 'some' quality of work is done, and 1/3? 1/5: the wage/benefits here?

And the u.s. citizens are suckers for cheap products to BUY, and they spend money buying products made somewhere else, while at the same time wanting to be paid MORE for what they do.

Anyway, beans will come back. And if they don't, farmers will plant wheat and corn. The world needs our food supply.

Sometimes you need short term pain, for long term gain. But, the bigger issue is, the u.s. isn't up for that.

jc

state of the union speech is gonna be so lit.

You know a ship leaving for Brazil can easily do so by way of China right? The Chinese might pay more, but they are still paying less than the tariffs.

All it does is give us better relations with Brazil. China just ends up spending more to get the same thing. They might not be paying a tariff to us on those but they are not collecting one from us either. Goods are using taxed on leaving and on arriving depending on the goods. By us not shipping to China it cuts them out of even more income. I'm sure Brazil is loving it though =)

You do realize that China has been doing the reverse to dump cheap steel on us and Canada for decades right? There is only one way to beat China at this game and that is to outlaw chinese made goods with a complete BAN in the US until both sides drop all tariffs and extra fees.

That will never happen because we are addicted to cheap chinese products. That is why we have a trade deficit and why they can lend us our own money back... There is absolutely no positives in Trump's handling of trade agreements thus far, other than creating a tool to pump up his base. He basically relabeled Nafta and packaged it with some things from the TPP... the things he balked at when he backed out of it because 'Obama'... smh

This is certainly a point we agree on. But at that juncture, is it really a trade war with China or is it something more to do with American companies sending their jobs overseas? See, often times people invent a Trojan Horse. They wish to paint a bad guy that isn't really the bad guy. If the companies that move these jobs to China had certain tax breaks taken from them and tariffs on their products based on how many jobs they move offshore, then we could have stopped a lot of this long ago.

But you see, from a political standpoint, that would be what many would call "waging war on business" and labeled as anti- business and harm a lot of politicians that receive millions in lobby money and contributions form those very corporations.

So what sounds better? Make China the Trojan Horse for what American businesses are doing.



I agree to a point. It's also hard for people to buy American products at a much higher cost when they're raising kids making 15 bucks an hour. When the jobs in their community used to pay much higher wages. You can't go backwards and pay much more money for your goods. So for those who can afford to do so and don't, we agree. But there's more to it than that in many, many cases.



For those who can make it through. Many aren't sure they'll make it past this year. A couple of people have brought up that most grain farmers are corporate farms. And that may be true, I'm not sure. But that's not how it was where I grew up. They were certainly very large farms, but farms owned by generations of families working together. Certainly not corporate conglomerates. It's amazing just how low profit margins are in grain farming and how much they have to hang on from year to year. Corn and wheat prices fell in August but I don't know if they bounced back.



I agree with what you said in principal. But how many can't afford it and will lose everything they have if it continues? Some don't have the fortitude to see it through. Some don't have the economic affordability to see it through.

What concerns me is America as a whole. When their cars, appliances and electronics rise, when the tariffs hit them in the face with their buying power, it won't take long for the political impact of that to be felt by whoever is in power.

This brings up back full circle to what I said earlier. We have elections. We have choices. Politicians have a hard time doing what they think is best because if Americans feel any negative impacts by those decisions, be them right or wrong, that politician won't be in office for long.

I think it should be the companies that move those jobs to China that pay the price as I said earlier. They are the ones who stole American jobs from the U.S., not China. But as I said before, that wouldn't be popular so instead our government has to invest a boogeyman in the nation China, and not those who decided to move those jobs to China.

It’s obvious that selling arms to wage war is more important to trump than feeding the world and opening more trade opportunities between the USA and China.

Maybe China should kill a reporter...

True, that’s an automatic in to trumps inner circle.