one can not assume that you automatically win the game if you convert the 4th and 1.
Actually, it's not an assumption, it's a statement of absolute irrefutable fact. If we converted - as you state in your scenario, it's 1st & 10 inside the 2:00 warning and they're out of time outs. That's Game Over right there.
Two knees and done. Guaranteed.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
I think that's where some of the fun/controversy happens- football's like a game of chess... a hundred little things go into wins and losses. That call was not the only one that contributed to the final score.
In theory, the Browns could have fumbled one of the snaps in the victory formation and the Broncos could have recovered.
I don't remember a team ever losing like that though. The Browns wouldn't invent creative new ways to lose a game. Nope, that wouldn't ever happen to the Browns, no way.
Another article about Williams and his possible future with the team. It's nothing ground-breaking so feel free to skip over it, although I find the part in bold to be fascinating and a great example of how important coaching is. It can easily swing close losses into close wins.
Gregg Williams' chances, on the other hand, have improved.
Since being elevated to Cleveland's interim coach when Hue Jackson was fired on Oct. 29, Williams, the team's in-your-grill defensive coordinator, has guided the Browns to four wins - two on the road - and has a team that didn't win once last season playing meaningful December games, believing anything is possible.
Seven weeks ago, Williams was a long-shot candidate. He now looks like a serious one.
''He deserves credit for a lot of stuff that's going on now, just the fire and the energy that he's bringing to this team has been incredible,'' Browns wide receiver Breshad Perriman said Monday, two days after a 17-16 win in Denver. ''I feel like you can't put a limit for the amount of credit you give him.''
Williams has won over his players, who feel his attention to detail and demand for accountability has brought out the best in them. He's also endeared himself to a segment of battle-scarred Cleveland fans, who would hate to see Williams leave and prosper elsewhere after his successful substitute stint.
General manager John Dorsey, who is heading the team's coaching search, will interview Williams for the full-time job once the season ends. Until then, the 60-year-old Williams won't discuss his future.
The gregarious coach loves to talk - about anything. But with two games to go, Williams is not going to address his interest in coaching the Browns (6-7-1) in 2019 and beyond.
''I appreciate to answer that, and all honesty, I do not think it is fair to the players or to anybody here,'' he said. ''The most important thing is making sure that these guys understand how we continue to win and how we get ready for the Bengals (on Sunday). Really. When they see the mindset is that way - that is the way that my mindset has always been. We will talk about that at the end.''
There is no denying Williams' impact in less than two months.
The Browns were in shambles when he took over, headed toward further disgrace. But Williams has helped salvage this season - Cleveland is technically still alive for a wild-card spot - while providing a glimpse of a future that hasn't looked nearly this promising in years.
Williams has more wins in six weeks than Jackson got in 40. He has demanded, and the Browns have responded.
''I just think it was just more attention to detail, and just us in the locker room just not letting all the outside elements affect us and affect how we play,'' said safety Jabrill Peppers. ''It would have been easy to crumble and blame everything else that was going on, but we stuck together, fought it out and we're on the cusp of having our first winning season around here in a long time, so everything falls how it may.''
Peppers said he didn't have any ''ill will'' toward Jackson, but indicated the Browns have been better prepared by Williams, who stresses competition at all times.
''We just practice real-game situations competitively now instead of having the game be the first time that situation arises,'' Peppers said. ''Let's say it's a two-minute drive, instead of the game being that first time our offense goes into two-minute mode, we do it in practice - competitive. We're the ultimate competitors, so we all want to win that period, both offensively and defensively. I think that's been the main thing that he's brought that helps us win.''
It's possible that Dorsey, who recently celebrated his one-year anniversary with the Browns, already has his next coach in mind - his wish list may include former Packers coach Mike McCarthy and Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley - and there may be nothing Williams can do to dissuade him from selecting another coach.
However, if Cleveland wins its last two games and finishes with a winning record for the first time since 2007, Williams could make it very difficult for Dorsey not to hire him.
That once seemed a far-fetched scenario. Turns out, it may not be far off.
NOTES: Rookie CB Denzel Ward has not yet cleared concussion protocol. He has missed the past two games. ... Peppers and his teammates were motivated by meeting former NBA superstar Kobe Bryant, who spoke to the team on Friday in Denver. ''That was probably one of the dopest moments since I've been in the league,'' Peppers said. ''It was just a good experience, man, and his message really hit home. It gave me that extra little oomph that I needed for prime time.'' Peppers had an interception, and his first NFL sack in the closing minutes clinched Cleveland's win.
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky was on a local show called Bull and Fox today, and he said that he "guarantees" that Freddie Kitchens will be interviewed for a head coaching position somewhere. He thought it should be here. Orlovsky said that he has heard from NFL insiders that when the Rams hired Sean McVay they had been told that he was a year away from being ready for a HC job, but decided that they liked him enough to hire him a year early. Orlovsky felt that might be the case with Kitchens too and that he would be a good HC pick for the Browns. The Kitchens talk starts around 5:15 on this recording:
[quote=Mourgrym] One more win and I think it's a done deal. Two wins? Don't even interview anyone else.
Kitchens for me had already locked up the OC position.
At this point, I'm certainly leaning that way. Both guys have exceeded my expectations so far...
MGH888's post made me wonder, do they have to still interview candidates under the Rooney Rule if decide on Williams? Just wondering, I really don't know
The NFL on Wednesday moved to strengthen the Rooney Rule, requiring that teams interview a minority candidate from outside their organizations or candidates from a league-approved list.
In place since 2003 for head coaches and expanded in 2009 to include general manager jobs and equivalent front-office positions, the rule -- named after former Pittsburgh Steelers chairman Dan Rooney, the onetime head of the league's diversity committee -- mandates that an NFL team must interview at least one minority candidate for these jobs.
Under the revised Rooney Rule, owners seeking to interview candidates from outside their organizations will be able to pick from the NFL's career development advisory panel list as well as a list of black assistant coaches who should be considered to move up each hiring cycle that is compiled by the Fritz Pollard Alliance, which helps oversee compliance of the rule.
Question about the verbiage of the Rooney Rule. Does it say teams need to interview a minority candidate or a black candidate? It seems like the two terms get used interchangeably but they don't mean the same thing.
Hypothetical questions: If black is the term used then why are they singled out? If minority, then what defines a minority? Would a white woman be considered a minority? What about someone who was Jewish? What if the person is 1/16th Native American?
So you are asking if Elizabeth Warren is on the list right?
[quote=Mourgrym] One more win and I think it's a done deal. Two wins? Don't even interview anyone else.
Kitchens for me had already locked up the OC position.
At this point, I'm certainly leaning that way. Both guys have exceeded my expectations so far...
MGH888's post made me wonder, do they have to still interview candidates under the Rooney Rule if decide on Williams? Just wondering, I really don't know
The NFL on Wednesday moved to strengthen the Rooney Rule, requiring that teams interview a minority candidate from outside their organizations or candidates from a league-approved list.
In place since 2003 for head coaches and expanded in 2009 to include general manager jobs and equivalent front-office positions, the rule -- named after former Pittsburgh Steelers chairman Dan Rooney, the onetime head of the league's diversity committee -- mandates that an NFL team must interview at least one minority candidate for these jobs.
Under the revised Rooney Rule, owners seeking to interview candidates from outside their organizations will be able to pick from the NFL's career development advisory panel list as well as a list of black assistant coaches who should be considered to move up each hiring cycle that is compiled by the Fritz Pollard Alliance, which helps oversee compliance of the rule.
Question about the verbiage of the Rooney Rule. Does it say teams need to interview a minority candidate or a black candidate? It seems like the two terms get used interchangeably but they don't mean the same thing.
Hypothetical questions: If black is the term used then why are they singled out? If minority, then what defines a minority? Would a white woman be considered a minority? What about someone who was Jewish? What if the person is 1/16th Native American?
So you are asking if Elizabeth Warren is on the list right?
I am not worried about losing Kitchens. Is there talk of him getting a HC offer?
How many openings are we looking at this offseason?
Browns job is possibly open.
Green Bay job is open.
I think most believe the Jets job will be open.
Denver could be open.
There is talk of Baltimore possibly being open, but with that you'd also have a top tier candidate on the market in John Harbaugh.
I think there are a few other jobs that could be open, but I still think the Browns job is one of the better ones, considering the roster which is very good, cap space situation is good, and the Browns mortgaged no future picks in building this current team, so it's quite the draw.
I do think if we keep Kitchens around, with more success, we'd probably just lose him anyway.
I could see some teams kicking the tires on Greg Williams. Like I said, he's done a great job, you can tell his demeanor changed when he was put in charge of everything. His players trust that he will do the right thing, which is a far cry from the previous situation.
I don't really know what John Dorsey is thinking. Does he want to stick with what we have, does he want to go by the textbook of the old guard and try to lure a guy like Harbaugh or McDaniels who are NFL guys through, or does he want to maybe think outside the box, take a chance, and try for a college coach, who may have some new ideas?
When I use the term Heir apparent I'm Assuming that Dorsey has told and promised this to Kitchens making him Asst. Head Coach along with his OC title.
He is cut out of the same cloth as Arians and after building a playoff team and having Baker as his QB he possibly would want the Future HC position with the Browns. He wins a SB in 2020 then I can expect him able to write his own ticket to any opening around. By then I'd hope we groomed our next play caller within the system. Brian Braswell or Bob Saunders
jdreaming about it...lol
Promises are great, but signed contracts are better. Kitchens would be stupid to go with a promise over a contract on the table ready to be signed.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
When I use the term Heir apparent I'm Assuming that Dorsey has told and promised this to Kitchens making him Asst. Head Coach along with his OC title.
He is cut out of the same cloth as Arians and after building a playoff team and having Baker as his QB he possibly would want the Future HC position with the Browns. He wins a SB in 2020 then I can expect him able to write his own ticket to any opening around. By then I'd hope we groomed our next play caller within the system. Brian Braswell or Bob Saunders
jdreaming about it...lol
Promises are great, but signed contracts are better. Kitchens would be stupid to go with a promise over a contract on the table ready to be signed.
Agreed. I wouldn't fault Kitchens for taking a HC job. There are only 32 of them and a coach's stock can fluctuate a lot based on factors beyond their control.
I still don't think he'll get an offer this off-season though.
one can not assume that you automatically win the game if you convert the 4th and 1.
Actually, it's not an assumption, it's a statement of absolute irrefutable fact. If we converted - as you state in your scenario, it's 1st & 10 inside the 2:00 warning and they're out of time outs. That's Game Over right there.
In theory, the Browns could have fumbled one of the snaps in the victory formation and the Broncos could have recovered.
I don't remember a team ever losing like that though. The Browns wouldn't invent creative new ways to lose a game. Nope, that wouldn't ever happen to the Browns, no way.
I certainly think it was the right call to go for it on 4th and 1 and appreciate the mentality, however, I absolutely recall this anomaly....
If we’re interested in retaining Freddie then we need to peruse it regardless of what he might be offered after a (presumably) successful season because let’s face it, anyone who we have as a OC or DC will get offers after a successful season. I guess a lot depends on what and where Freddie is in his own plan. Would he feel ready to accept an offer as a HC somewhere? I get the “opportunities are rare” argument, but a good OC won’t lack for any. Does he pull the trigger and take that just job with a struggling, disfunctional organization or does he stay the course, develop Baker and his own system, show he can help lead a team to playoff relevance maybe a Super Bowl and then have the option to go to a better organization who just needs to go in a new direction?
"Hey, I'm a reasonable guy. But I've just experienced some very unreasonable things." -Jack Burton
-It looks like the Harvard Boys know what they are doing after all.
Regardless of the potential to take a knee to finish out the game..... I still maintain the higher probability to win the game was to make them have to score a TD after a FG. The situation was not at all lost on me ....
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
4th and 1 you go for it. That's the strategy that leads to a higher probability to win the game in the vast majority of situations, including this one.
The exceptions are mainly when the drive can't really lead to anything positive for the offense in and of itself. For example, if it's 4th and 1 from your own 20 with 10 seconds left in the first half, of course your would punt it. If you convert, you're still probably not getting any points, but if you fail, you give the other team an opportunity for a field goal.
4th and 1 from your own 20 in a generic situation (e.g. first quarter), you go for it. Yes, really, even if it's the full yard, and it's even more obvious when it's only inches.
4th and 1 when you can close the game out deep in your opponent's territory, you go for it. The reward is you win the game outright, and this happens the majority of the time. When you run the numbers, you end up with a higher probability to win when you go for it, unless you're very generous with the "Kick FG" numbers (as in Excl's example), and even then, it was equal probability between the two strategies.
Give it some more years and this will all be widely accepted. We'll look at the coaches of old who kicked on 4th and short in a similar way that we look at coaches in the earlier days of football who thought the forward pass was a gimmick that would never catch on. Or the NBA coaches who thought the same thing about the 3 point shot. Many similar examples.
One more reason to go for it more often, in general:
It keeps the defense fresher! Either you convert and the offensive drive keeps rolling, or you fail to convert and the defense has to defend a shorter field. Either way, you keep the defense fresher and more explosive. There's less wear and tear over the course of a game, and season.
It would be wonderful if we all realized this and demanded it from the next head coach, whether it be Williams or someone else.
I wish the attitude were less, "If it works it was a good idea, if it doesn't it was a bad idea", and more, "Coach, we've got your back, you do what's best and leads the highest chance of winning the game. We understand that the 4th down conversion will come up short a decent amount of the time, and sometimes, we'll lose a game as a result. However, we appreciate all the additional games won as a result of your forward-thinking strategy."
Chances of this happening, close to 0, but at least I can dream.
When I use the term Heir apparent I'm Assuming that Dorsey has told and promised this to Kitchens making him Asst. Head Coach along with his OC title.
He is cut out of the same cloth as Arians and after building a playoff team and having Baker as his QB he possibly would want the Future HC position with the Browns. He wins a SB in 2020 then I can expect him able to write his own ticket to any opening around. By then I'd hope we groomed our next play caller within the system. Brian Braswell or Bob Saunders
jdreaming about it...lol
Freddie was the Associate Head Coach under Hue, and I doubt that he was demoted from that position when he became Offensive Coordinator.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
You obviously haven't been paying attention. Quit trying to convince yourself you're the smartest person in the room.
The difference between us is that I know better. The smartest people in the room do agree with me though.
Who are these smartest people in the room? NFL head coaches? Don't be so sure that they're all as smart as you think they are, or that the smart ones actually agree with the status quo.
There are a lot of factors that go into all this. For example, Dirk Koetter openly acknowledged that the percentages say to go for it more on 4th downs, but if he fails he's outta there. Bill Belichick has been involved in many of the 'controversies' where he went for it when he "wasn't supposed to", something which might at least make you reconsider somewhat.
Freddie Kitchens: 'No doubt' I want to be a head coach
The Cleveland Browns are in the market for a new head coach and the search will kick off in earnest when the regular season ends.
Interim offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, however, said he won't promote himself for whatever job awaits him.
Kitchens told reporters Thursday that he prefers to focus on getting his players ready for the final two games, but ultimately conceded one of his goals is to eventually become a head coach.
"Definitely," Kitchens said, via the Browns' official website. "No doubt."
Whether the goal is realized in Cleveland remains to be seen, as the Browns are sure to command interest from other candidates hoping for an opportunity to take over a team with a franchise quarterback and talent on both sides of the football in place.
Cleveland has two legitimate candidates to fill the head coach position already in house with Kitchens and interim head coach Gregg Williams, and both coaches have compelling arguments to be serious contenders.
After a 2-5-1 start, the Browns made sweeping changes with the firings of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, then promoting Williams from defensive coordinator and Kitchens from running backs coach to their current posts.
The Browns have gone 4-2 since and enter Week 16 with a 6-7-1 record. The improved play of rookie signal-caller Baker Mayfield is attributed to Kitchens, prompting a report from Jay Glazer of FOX Sports and The Athletic last weekend that Kitchens has "locked up" the offensive coordinator position in 2019.
"Jay knows more than I know, I guess," Kitchens told reporters when asked about the report. "I am serious when I tell you I do not advertise for jobs. I don't have to and I will not ever.
"I heard the other day somebody say something about how I was not ready to be a head coach. I mean, who the hell is ready to be a head coach? Do you have a résumé that you check off a list and everything? I am not worried about head coach, coordinator -- I don't care. I am just trying to do the job that I am doing right now today and then do a good job tomorrow and then the next day, and then see where I am at the end of the year. I really truly do not put any thought into beyond this week."
Meanwhile, the responsibility of looking into the future falls on Browns owner Jimmy Haslam and general manager John Dorsey. And Kitchens deserves to be considered whether it's for the head coach position or his current position.
For his part, Kitchens admits he wouldn't mind returning to a city he has fallen in love with.
"I like it here," Kitchens said. "I like it here a lot. Everybody around here knows that I like it here. I love the town of Cleveland. Cleveland and I get along well."
And imagine in this particular situation getting 1 more yard to end the game and resting your defense so they won't have to go back out onto the field and risk injury.
That definitely seems more likely than Kitchens at head coach, Williams at DC.
Both have to realize that they are in this together. Williams gets the job as head coach, Kitchens gets the job at OC with a nice bump in pay, a contract extension, and a platform to showcase his coaching skills to the rest of the league.
They can sell wins, continuity, and camaraderie. Will it be enough? Time will tell!
I disagree. I don't believe you will ever see where the majority of 4th and 1 plays all always go for it. analytics has been around long enough if it was that simple they would be doing it now. Posters disagree, let's move on.
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
I think the patriots are a team that will go for it more times than naught. I believe their aggressiveness is one reason why they've dominated the past 15+ years.
The Eagles aggressiveness also was a factor in their super bowl winning season a year ago.
The lack of aggressiveness is also why some coaches never win a super bowl.
More than anything I would prefer an aggressive head coach. Not only does it lead to more victories, it's many times the mathematically the thing to do.
That's nice of you to get the last words in, and then say let's move on. You don't know me very well-- I'm a little too stubborn for that.
The only thing we agree with is that (some) posters disagree. I know I propose what looks like a radical strategy. I was never under the impression that I was going to get most, let alone everyone to agree. If I changed one person's mind then I'm doing something right.
The strategy will change. Society and industries adapt. Sometimes it happens at a comically slow rate. It took decades for NBA coaches to realize the power of the 3 point shot-- to build offenses around it and acquire and train players for the skill.
It took society on the order of a hundred years to understand the toxic health effect of smoking cigarettes, but adapt it did.
And sooner or later, teams are going to default to going for it on 4th and short. The 'when' is hard to predict (things are already starting to pick up), but it will happen.
It will happen because it's the smart play and will lead to more wins in the long run. Coaches will either adapt or get left behind. In fact, it will probably be the smartest and most adept coaches who move the needle on this, and if they can understand the dynamics at play here, they will be more likely to pick up and improve on other inefficiencies in the league.
So they win more games, they stay on, others copy what they do. It could all happen pretty fast. Or it may be a slower process... again, the 'when' is hard to predict.
Anyway, if you want to move on, so be it. I'm not sure what there is to talk about. The season is still going on so there can't be any interviews. We don't know who will be available, or what behind-the-scenes conversations are taking place. I guess we can talk about what Williams/Kitchens have done, with the occasional wild speculation about Lincoln Riley thrown in for another 8 pages.
Oh we can move on from both the 4th n short discussion and the HC discussion ; ... The FG was the smarter play last Sunday and GW will be the HC next year.
Next?
Hopefully you realize I'm kidding while also confirming.net opinion on both items. I'm on a tablet so typing is somewhat of a chore, but sometime I'll give you some 4th down game scenarios and you can tell me what you think the call should be.
Last edited by mgh888; 12/21/1806:43 PM.
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
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