DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 24 Ravens 26 Browns vs. Ravens Betting Preview

Bet on Baker

So I'm assuming, Cleveland is an underdog, No way are the Browns favored by 5.5 and this guy is picking the Browns, or advising the reader to.

Crazy I says.

The only pick (betting wise) is the Ravens or no pick.

Actually NO pick is about about 4 times better in my mind, meaning,

If I were betting to make/not lose money, I'd stay away from this game 4 times in a row before If forced with no other choice I'd pick Baltimore if I had to.

It's a division game, (afc north vs afc north = same division),
Almost never bet division games, they go wrong way too often,
Just look at the Patriots vs Dolphins, final play win, 3 weeks ago,

Division games, the teams know each other so well, you can almost never predict them well enough to make a bet safe.

2nd, The playoff experience factor, in no way favors the Browns, and the Ravens have twice this year looked like an unstoppable force, (the Browns are still growing in dominant performances, don't really have the template down yet, so to speak)

The coaching favors the Ravens
The quarterback favors the Browns, but the Ravens Qb is too unknown to know if << that is even true, or by how much.

The Ravens offense: Tight ends, running game, and a running Qb, are pretty much "not" what the Browns defense seems set up to be best against.

The Browns defense "seems" to be built to stop deep passing plays, short passing plays, and to get pressure on the qb.
tight ends give the Browns trouble, "seems" to be a conclusion of Dt'ers board
Mis-direction/disguised running plays, giving the Browns trouble, "seems" to be a conclusion of Dt'ers board and
Running Qb's giving the Browns trouble "seems" to be a conclusion of Dt'ers board,

This type of game would favor whichever team can dominate the line of scrimmage, and dominate the middle of the field, in most situations,
("this type" meaning, a game to decide the playoffs)

There is a different level, to playoff games, ... like there is a different level, regular season vs pre-season.

Finally, there is the quick thought: Ask yourself quickly which team is more likely to win the game by 30-nothing or something like that.

Much easier to see the Ravens win 30-nothing than to see Browns win 30-nothing, if you asked which is more believeable, or likely to happen
.. not necessarily long term, but 4 days from now.


For most of these reasons, I'd say, don't bet the Browns as 5.5 underdogs.

This game isn't even in Cleveland, it's in Baltimore.

(What's the probababiliby the line you are looking at looks "so obvious" that it might be a fixed game and people are being baited to put money on one team?) < doesn't look like it,

Ask myself, "if this game were in Baltimore, what would a normal "line" be, ... and then if this game were in Cleveland, what would a normal "line" be, and then if it's on a neutral field, does it seem to "fit" ... if not, if it's way off, maybe stay away because I think the game is fixed. < none of this applies,

Baltimore by 5.5 in Baltimore doesn't seem far off, they are playing to get into the playoffs,
if the game were in Cleveland, Baltimore might still be favored by near 3 pts, so a 5.5 favorite in Baltimore isn't a wacky far off line.


if Cle, were favored by 5.5, for instance, I'd be asking myself, why are people trying to get people to place money on Baltimore?

I don't bet on football games, and even if I did, there'd only be about 3 or 4 percent of games that I'd consider betting on anyways.

I certainly hope I'm wrong but I'm gonna guess the Ravens will win this game as we always have problems when a QB runs and Lamar Jackson runs a lot.

To win this game? We gotta focus on keeping Lamar contained.

-GO BROWNS!

Cleveland has moved to +6.

Strange.

While I understand the Ravens defense is great, they dont have an offense to really blow a team out.

+6 is easy money, IMO.

I agree. I had already decided to bet the Browns at +5.5. I was even going to sprinkle a little on the moneyline.

This is a big game for Baker. If he rises to the challenge, I don't see how the Browns don't win. I can't see him not rising to the challenge either.

It will be interesting to see where the sharp money comes in as we get closer to game time.

Well, lines are set to split the betting public. To the average gambler, pat the Browns on the head - they had a decent season. Ravens are actually playing for a playoff berth. Makes sense on paper but that narrative doesn't adjust for the fact that the Browns are hungry and this means a lot to our team... and our team has a leader that will take the field like he's playing for the playoffs. Take the Brownies with the points or don't bet at all, this game comes down to a late FG.

That should be bettable if the first half goes our way. Just concerned about blind luck and late ref calls against us.

Make Harbaugh cry out loud. Break their hearts.

I did the same thing. Took the Browns with the points and on the ML.

Got hosed on the Browns last week when Njoku didn't score and they decides to kneel it down. Had the Browns +9.5 and the over. Ah well.

I stayed away from last weeks game. That spread made me uncomfortable.

But it looks like the Browns would have ended up covering easily had they not gotten lackadaisical.

j/c

O.S.U. broke one Harbaugh's heart. It would be nice to see the Browns break the other Harbaugh's heart.

Is it wrong of me to hope to have the Browns beat the Ravens ..... and the Steelers see this in the final minutes of their game .... a game in which they have the lead ..... only to blow that lead on the final play of their game?

No, it's not wrong. Personally, I would prefer the Steelers in the playoffs over the Ravens. I will never forgive that franchise for abandoning Cleveland.

To be clear, it's not something I think about anymore, except for when we play them and/or a situation like this comes up. At least the Rooney's supported the city of Cleveland when Model and the boys bolted for Baltimore.

And let's not forget RavenKiller (RIP). Let's knock those turds out of the playoffs for him.

I like our chances as well.

We may not win the game, but it is a good chance and I'll take the 6.

We win or lose on a late fieldgoal, be it a good kick or a miss.