DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum End of the Season Rookie QB Stats/Comparisons

ok, so i made the mid season review comparing the first round rookie QB's, and now that the season is over with, not much has changed.

Baker Mayfield is by far the best of the class overall, and stat-wise, it isn't close. Lamar jackson is the only rookie QB in the playoffs, and based on success, is the best of the class.

Like last time, because of the modern era of QB's being mobile and picking up more yards rushing, i will include rushing stats, which includes first downs made from rushes. lets begin:


Baker Mayfield

Games played: 14. games started: 13. W-L: 7-7 (im including the jets win), 3rd AFC North

63.8%, 3725 yards passing, 7.67 average, 27 TDs, 14 int, 4 fumbles, 93.7 passer rating, 55.7 QBR

131 rushing yards, 3.4 per rush, 0 TDs, 3 fumbles, 1 lost, 8 first downs
_______________________

Lamar Jackson

games played: 16. games started: 7. W-L: 6-1, 1st AFC North

58.2%, 1201 yards passing, 7.07 average, 6 TDs, 3 int, 2 fumbles, 84.5 passer rating, 48.7 QBR

695 rushing yards, 4.7 per rush, 5 TDs, 10 fumbles, 2 lost, 45 first downs

___________________

Sam Darnold

games played: 13. games started: 13. W-L: 4-9, 4th AFC East

57.7%, 2865 yards passing, 6.92 average, 17 TDs, 15 int, 1 fumbles, 77.6 passer rating, 47.9 QBR

138 rushing yards, 3.1 per rush, 1 TDs, 4 fumbles, 1 lost, 16 first downs
____________________

Josh Rosen

games played: 14. games started: 13. W-L: 3-10, 4th NFC West

55.2%, 2278 yards passing, 5.8 average, 11 TDs, 14 int, 7 fumbles, 66.7 passer rating, 26.6 QBR

138 rushing yards, 6.0 per rush, 0 TDs, 3 fumbles, 0 lost, 8 first downs
_______________________

Josh Allen

games played: 12. games started: 11. W-L: 5-6, 3rd AFC East

52.8%, 2074 yards passing, 6.48 average, 10 TDs, 12 int, 3 fumbles, 67.9 passer rating, 52.3 QBR

631 rushing yards, 7.1 per rush, 8 TDs, 5 fumbles, 1 lost, 41 first downs
_______________________

So, based on individual play, my ranking would be:

Mayfield
Jackson
Darnold
Allen
Rosen

based on success:

Jackson
Mayfield
Allen
Darnold
Rosen

based on offensive talent around the QB:

Mayfield
Jackson
Darnold
Allen
Rosen

Rosen easily had the worst talent to work with. Allen had crap talent and an injured McCoy, Darnold had a lack of talent everywhere but average players, Jackson has a run heavy based team, and Mayfield had the best overall talent to work with.

Baker mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen flashed the most talent this season. Hopefully Baker and Lamar gave us a 10 year preview of things to come when those two go head 2 head, because that last game was something glorious to watch. Darnold....look imma refrain from being to hard on him, but i wasn't impressed. he showed some ability, but overall just...eh.

Rosen i felt the worst for, because he basically had nothing. worst o line in the league, worst receiving core in the league, least coaching stability.

anyways, we already know its gonna take another 2-3 years to properly evaluate the QB class, but this is just to talk about how they did this season, and what the future possibly holds.

Not much changed in my mind this year ... EACH SITUATION is so different .... its so hard to compare ... my thoughts ... based off what i’ve seen nothing has changed in who i think has a shot andwho doesn’t ...

Pre-draft i wanted Darnold but was fine with either Bake or Rosen .. they ALL had questions ... Bake grew on me as his questions were height and things he couldn’t control .. like we knew he was accurate throwing to wide open guys ... could he do it in fla windows ...

By draft day i still favored Darnold but Bake had moved slightly ahead of Rosen ... and Darnold was just slightly ahead of Bake ...

This year CHANGED NOTHING IN MY MIND ...

Allen and Jackson cant hit the broad side of a barn .. there not QB’s IMO ... i still see no long term future on either of them ...

Darnold’s play improved dramiticallly from week 1 to week 17 ... thats what u want from a rookie ... his team was depleted with injuries and he still improved ... that’s what u wanna see in your rookie QB’s ...

Rosen looked like a rookie on a really bad team ... hope he learned a lot as opposed to getttin shell shocked ... NO CLUE how to gauge his rookie year ...

Bake STUDDED out for a rookie ... it was the best rookie performance I may have ever seen ...

HE HAS FLAWS and plenty to learn .... but with his work ethic combined with the bag of chips on his shoulder and his talent ... SKY IS VIRTUALLY THE LIMIT HERE ...

I think all five of these QBs are going to end up being pretty good. They all flashed at times. I worry about Rosen the most because he took an inordinate amount of big-time hits and that is not good for such a young qb. He might end up becoming damaged goods.

I said on another thread [we were talking about RBs] that this rookie class is one of the best I have ever seen. In fact, I can't think of a class where there were so many good rookies.

I see the order like this...

Mayfield
Darnold
Jackson
Allen
Rosen

I would order them the exact same for long-term projections. Can't get past Allen's lack of accuracy.

Darnold is a bit of an enigma to me. I didn't think he was all that impressive in college. I actually thought he was more impressive in the pros. He strikes me as a slightly better Tannehill, but I can see why others think the ceiling is much higher.

There's a chance Mayfield and Darnold could own the AFC for the next 10 years.

Too early to tell how it will shake out because of all the variability in each teams situation and talent. I love what Baker brings to the team and am glad he is our QB ...

The one thing in these stats that jumps off the page at me is Josh Allen's 52.8% completion %. I didn't want the Browns to pick him because you just don't see QB's become more accurate in the NFL than they were in college - and while the kids arm and athleticism are incredible and while he has some highlight reel throws, that accuracy is a major red flag.

Going to be an interesting few years in the NFL with this draft class of QBs and seeing how they all progress.

Difference between Lamar and Cam ...

Cam can throw ...

Teams will stop the rats ... Lamar is COMPLETELY ONE DIMENSIONAL in my eyes ...

I’m with u on that i am soooo disspaointed in our Defensive game plan for them ... its really not that hard to shut them down ... i honestly think we were the better football on the field on sunday ...

- bad D game planning
- quick td signal by one of the side judges witch led to the quick whistle IMO
- ball hits vice grips in the face mask on a TD ...
- bake missing Landry on the out on the last series .. unfortunate time to be iinnacurate ...

Will be interesting to see how affective he is against the bolts this time around ...

Also cant wait to see him have to bring his team back .... that’ll be real interesting to say the least .. *L* ...

Just to piggyback on your post .... we'll see how good a QB Lamar is the 1st time he gets hurt and can't run.

He made a couple of solid throws against us, but also some that were absolute gimmes that he just butchered. The day when he is banged up to the point that he can't take off and run, then we'll see what he has as a passer.

I don't think Baker missed Landry. The pass was a little behind him but he tried to one hand it. All these WR try to be Odell Beckham and get on ESPN. If he made that catch we are in field goal range.

RE-watch if u haven’t all ready ....

It was behind him ... he got his hand on it but it wasnt a drop IMO ... no way ..

IF Bake could have one throw back all year ... that one may the winner ...

It was a BAD THROW ...

If u think it was a drop ... we’ll just have to gree to disagree .....

LETS GOOOOOOOOooooooooooo ...

That pass off the face mask was on the money.

I’m talking about the out at the end of the game not the one off his face mask .... that was just bad luck IMO .. any and all blame goes to VICE GRIPS on that one ... ...

I realize that, I was making an observation of another Baker/Landry play.

No, it wasn't. Landry was wide open and all Baker had to do was lead him towards the middle of the field. Instead, he dropped right on top of his head. Landry should have caught it, but it was an inaccurate throw considering the circumstances.

I get that Baker never, ever makes a mistake to most on this board, but that was a poor throw.

If that was Landry's best effort at catching a ball, I'll have to re-evaluate what I think of him as a receiver. Perfect pass? No. Clearly behind him. If you can get one hand on it, you have to catch it. Especially when it's painfully obvious that he could have had two hands on it if he wanted to make the catch. QBs don't throw perfect passes every time. All-world receivers make that catch all day long... when they truly want to.

Not you, too?!?!

I clearly said:



I'm arguing that it was not a great throw. It was an inaccurate throw because the middle of the field was wide open. Just throw it out in front of him.

I agree with both you and Vers.

Good God!

The pass was a bad one. If Baker had led him even just 1 more yard, and it's a TD.

I did not think he tracked the ball properly.

Mayfield threw it out there and Jarvis needed to adjust properly to the ball - he did not, in my estimation.

Nice post.

I think that the class as a whole is going to be good going forward, with Baker leading the pack.

http://pfref.com/tiny/XLG6S

The list of QBs who completed 53% of passes and below since 1999 (when football started) is not great. If Josh Allen was just a passer we'd be talking about him as one of the worst picks ever. Luckily for the Bills, and Josh Allen, he's basically Cam Newton while running the ball. I don't know if Allen will be good, but he at least has a chance. Before the season I didn't think he had a chance.

Josh Rosen might be screwed. The situation in Arizona is real bad. They need a total rebuild, which means subjecting him to an awful supporting cast for at least one more year. That's not great.

All of the other three are in pretty good spots and I'd expect them to excel as long as they stay healthy.

10 fumbles and only lost 2 for Lamar, that seems a little lucky tbh.

When I see Lamar Jackson play, I think of Micheal Vick in one way, Speed.. But really he reminds me more of RG3.

I hope what happened to RG won't happen to Jackson.. Miles Garrett eluded to it in his end of season interview on Monday. he mentioned that Jacksons long term success might depend on how well he takes care of his body.

Passes that hit receiver in head = bad pass. Got it.

If you shuffled them up to be redrafted, I think this is how other teams would view them as their QB of the future based on what we now know...

Mayfield
Darnold
Jackson/Allen
Rosen

I love sarcasm. Nice job.

With that said............Yeah, I don't know what I am talking about. I would have no idea [as a former coach, player, and scout] that a QB should throw the ball out in front and to the middle of the field when a receiver is breaking open and there is no deep help. I didn't know that you were supposed to drop a deep pass right on top of a guy's head. Got it.

I think I still take Rosen over Jackson/Allen. He has the least to work with . Easily the worst line in the last 15 years

Pssst .... i’m just some idiot off the street and i know that u oughta lead the WR to the middle of the field ... u never want to drop it directly over his head .... its all about ANGLES .... hmmm .. maybe i’m more qualified to be a coach than i think ...

U said u like sarcasm ... *L* ...

And, we all know a receiver, especially that wide open, is not allowed to make any route adjustment to the pass, right? Heck no! The receiver should run full sprint and if the ball donks off his facemask as he's looking back, it was a bad pass.

LOL......you may very well be.

Btw----------just to clarify in case things are being misconstrued. I am not criticizing Baker for that throw. It wasn't awful I simply disputed the claim that it was "on the money." I took that to mean that is where the throw should have been.

You throw that ball out in front and to the middle of the field and let your receiver run under it. The hardest catch in football is the one that drops right over your head. Dropping one on top of a dude's head is extremely hard to catch.

Baker played extremely well this year. I am not dissing him. Just trying to talk football.

With that said, I could be wrong about this but it seems like there is a tendency to give Baker all the credit and then blame others if things don't go perfectly. I am not a fan of that and I don't think that is good for a team.

I keep reading about drops and such, but I don't see posts pointing out the diving catches by Landry [that was reviewed late in the game] and the one right before that. Who was that? Higgins?

It's a team game.

Based off arch’s reply to me ... seems he needed no explanation .... he clearly nailed it ...

This sarcasm stuff is growing on me ... *LOL* ....

Baker and Lamar have played out of their minds. No one will give Lamar credit for his decision making. Rosen will be good too. Darnold and Allen never looked like they got shellshocked and played to their strengths. Like I said last year, the class was going to get at least 3 stars.

LOL..........you're a quick learner.

In all seriousness............this is for you and anyone who wants to either learn or talk rationally about the situation.

While tracking the ball is huge for receivers, I think the posters who are bringing this up are wrong in this case.

Here is why.

You track the ball when it isn't thrown directly towards you. Examples would include, but are not limited to:

--The throw I previously mentioned. The throw is beyond you and to your inside. You adjust your route while the ball is in the air and track down the ball by running at the proper speed and adjusting your route to the inside.

--Let's say you are on the right side of the formation and are running a skinny post well down the field. The throw is off and instead of being on your inside shoulder, it's on your outside shoulder. Somehow, you have to pivot and turn your body around where your face is pointing to the right sideline instead of the left sideline. It's very difficult.

--You are running a jett and the corner has pretty good coverage, so the qb throws to your back shoulder. You cut off your route and use your body as a shield to highpoint the ball in front of the corner.

There are more, but those are examples of route adjustments.

What happened to Landry is not an example of "he should have adjusted his route. He was running it. The throw was a rainbow that was aimed directly toward him and dropped in over the top of his head. What was he supposed to do? Run to the right and then dive back to the left? The opposite?

The answer is no. That is why coaches teach their qbs to throw those types of passes beyond and to the side of the receiver depending on which direction he is running. In this case, the throw should have beyond Landry and to the middle of the field.

I am going to reiterate this point and when we meet, I am going to make you run down the field and I will drop a throw right on top of your head and then throw it correctly and let you run to it. It's almost impossible to "adjust" to a ball that is dropped on to the top of your head.

With that said, Landry still should have caught it. He's a very good WR and he would tell you that he should have caught it. But, that throw was not "on the money."

Go to the 6 minute mark.

Tell me Landry couldn't have adjusted to the ball.

Could it have been a better pass? Sure. BUt a damn ball that, when you're wide open, hits you in the face mask? Excuse me, that's a bad attempt at a reception.

The original comment was "on the money." It wasn't "on the money." Y'all are turning it into something it wasn't.

Btw-----------go to the 11:50 mark and the 12:10 mark and tell me that his receivers didn't bail him out. Why aren't you guys talking about that?

Obviously, some have never been a receiver. It's okay. When you are running wide open, it would be awesome to have a perfect, leading pass.

Of course, in real life, sometimes that doesn't happen, right?

I would ask Jarvis if he thought he should've caught that pass, or if he blamed Baker for it.

Of course, I know one poster on here that feigns appreciation of Baker, and another poster that follows suit.

Blaming the no catch on Baker is getting just a little nit picky. But, you all can carry on. Perfection is out of reach. The ball was catchable.......as in I bet Jarvis could've kicked himself for missing it.