DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season NFL Post Season 2018 NFL Conference Championship Analysis & Predictions

The Conference Championship match-ups are set. The four remaining teams are the number 1 and 2 seeds in their respective conferences. I'll be back later to analyze the match-ups, but I figured I would put this up for you guys to get a head start on analyzing the games or to simply offer predictions.

NFC: (2) Los Angeles Rams at (1) New Orleans Saints

3:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Mercedes-Benz Superdome


AFC: (2) New England Patriots at (1) Kansas City Chiefs

6:40 p.m. ET | CBS | Arrowhead Stadium

Saints vs Chiefs..

Not going to give a big analysis.. but if defense wins championships, why are the 4 teams left the 4 highest scoring teams in the NFL? Both games could come down to which defense can have at least moderate success at stopping the other.

Patriots vs Saints

Pretty much. This is why, when discussing team needs/direction, I've noted that I want a (good pass blocking) left tackle and a legit #1 receiver. Surround Baker with great talent and let's be one of those highest scoring teams in the NFL.

This isn't to say neglect the defense. There are plenty of draft picks and a lot of cap space to make upgrades in all phases, I'm just looking for a little more blue chip talent to round out the offense.

By the way, your observation is also partly behind my stubborn insistence about being more aggressive on 4th downs.

Take a typical 4th and 1 that comes up in some generic game situation (from our own 30, first quarter, tie game). In such a scenario-- 4th and 1 from far away from the opponent's end zone, in a non-desperate game situation, teams will convert about 2 out of 3 times. With a high powered offense, great running back, etc. it may well be higher, but let's with about 2 out of 3.

Now let's fast forward a year, and it's Browns vs Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. It's a shootout with Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes leading their teams down the field, trading touchdowns and field goals. The above situation comes up... 4th and 1 from our own 30. We decide to go for it!

2 out of 3 times, we just pick up the first down and continue to roll.

1 out of 3 times, we fail to convert and the Chiefs get better field position.

How is it not obvious to do this? I hammer this point because this is part of the solution to this NFL offense craze. Just do what all the analytics nerds have been saying for years and just grab the extra possessions for ourselves. It may well be the difference between a playoff win and whimpering out. Trust me.. Andy Reid is great at many things but this is not one of them. It would be a clear edge for the Browns against what could be our most formidable AFC competition for a long time going forward.

j/c:

Can we please keep the thread focused on the topic? The other discussion deserves a thread of its own.

Thanks.

I think the Saints will win in the NFC.

Patriots vs Chiefs is a little tougher. The Pats are playing their best football now, and Belichick/Brady always come on strong in the playoffs. That said, the Pats aren't great outside Foxborough. I'm going to go against my gut instinct and pick the Chiefs here.

Saints over Chiefs in the Super Bowl

Saints 31
Rams 27

Chiefs 34
Patriots 28

With the way New England absolutely smashed the Chargers up front, I can't see any team beating them if they play like that. Been a while since I've seen an O-line just annihilate a good defense like that. I just cannot see the Chiefs stopping that either.

If New England runs the ball like that, no one is beating them.


The Chiefs have so many weapons, if they get up 14-0 it's going to be tough on Tom because they aren't a big play offense. The Chiefs defense will be exposed, Andrew Luck looks like Chad Pennington, he was holding the ball, not letting it rip. That won't happen to Tom. Side note: how does a 6'5 QB consistently get his passes swatted?


The only chance the Chiefs have is getting up 2 scores early. If NE scored first, they will control the clock and keep Mahommnes off the field. Belicheck has seen this before with Manning, they will bump and harass and annoy Kelce and Hill. They literally made the 5 yard rule FOR Manning after Ty Law mugged his receivers. Get under their skin, bump them well after the whistle on "accident", take the big shots even if it borders on cheap. From what I saw, the Refs swallowed the whistles this week, so Belicheck will see that too and tell them to press the envelope.



I picked the Saints to go to the Superbowl and I think they get that done. Home field is real and they survived a bum rush from the champs and it was teetering on getting away from them. I think Goff's inexperience comes into play in this game. Lattimore is playing out of his mind, his first INT yesterday was poetry in motion. That young man is dominant.

Saints 38
Rams 24

Chiefs 31
Patriots 34

Losing Rankins really hurts the Saints. Atmosphere will help them, though.

I think both games will be more interesting this round. More punch and counter-punch, hopefully.

and Brees retires going out on top.

What I want: any combination that doesn't include New England. My preference would be the Rams/Chiefs since it has been longer since those teams played in the SB than the other 2.

What I think: New England and New Orleans win

I'd bet Travis Kelce gets baited into a personal foul in this game.

As far as "defense wins championships," I think the team with the best defense of those 4 teams will win the championship. Offense can only carry you so far.

My simple analysis...

The Chiefs are awesome at home, where the real 12th man resides. Unless they have a complete brain fart, I believe they will win.

Rams could pull the upset but I think the Saints prevail. I just don't like Goff in this one...

Despite taking a hit on defense I believe the Saints have the best defense left. And the Saints will win it all because "defense wins championships."


I believe the Chiefs-Saints is also the sexy match-up. And while still a potential fun match-up, the Rams-Patriots could be a dud. I will watch either way, but Chiefs-Saints gives me the feeling I'll be excited for more and I don't want this to end whereas the Rams-Patriots will just have me wondering when it'll be over even before it begins. The other possible matchups fall somewhere in between. It's time for the Patriots to just die.

I agree with Goff, he's pretty pedestrian when the game is on the line. But their running game is pretty good. Chiefs/Pats. I've learned to not bet against the Pats once the weather turns cold. Especially since they have the best defense left in the playoffs. If its BB defense against Mahommes, i'm taking BB. History tells me to. Chiefs vs /Rams or Saints would be fun. Fresh blood would be better than watching the Pats

If "the best" defense holds the other team to 34 and you win 40-34, I have a hard time saying the defense won the game... the offense will have carried you, while the defense have done just enough.

I see Rankins is out, that does hurt NO's run D

Interesting comment about the weather turning cold. I agree.

It reminds me of some of the older matchups between the Colts and Patriots. There were some years where the Colts were a juggernaut in the regular season and then flamed out in the playoffs.

A few years they came out flat and got punched in the mouth.

Other years, the weather probably had something to do with it. Indy was a dome team. They'd pan over to Peyton Manning, shivering and miserable. Being cold is more than just uncomfortable; it can also increase reaction times and movement times, which are devastating for a position like QB.

Then Brady would come onto the field, and he would look absolutely fine. To me it always appeared that it was more than just acting. He was probably just better cold adapted, at the very least from practicing outdoors (something Belichick and his disciples are known for) and playing in Foxborough.

Patrick Mahomes played at Texas Tech and has had very little exposure to the cold. Last week's game had snow but it wasn't that cold. Meanwhile for Pats vs Chiefs.. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patri...ally-low-temps/



On that note, I'm actually going to change my prediction to the Patriots beating the Chiefs. It's kind of what I wanted to do to begin with, even with the Chiefs being 3 point favorites.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...nst-the-chiefs/

Patriots’ defense is better, and they’ll need it to be against the Chiefs
Posted by Michael David Smith on January 15, 2019, 9:30 AM EST

Last year the Patriots lost a Super Bowl when Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, thanks to the defense failing to stop the Eagles’ offense. That was the story of the season in New England, when the offense was great but the defense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain.

This season has been different: Tom Brady’s stats declined in 2018, but the defense was better. New England improved in defensive DVOA from 31st last season to 16th this season. By yards per play allowed, New England improved from 30th to 19th. By takeaways, New England improved from 25th to sixth.

Last year’s Patriots defense forced 19 turnovers in 19 games, counting postseason. This year’s Patriots have forced 30 turnovers in 17 games, even though turnovers league-wide were slightly down this season.

Takeaways will be particularly important on Sunday against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. When the teams met in the regular season, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a lot of big plays, but the Patriots also intercepted him twice, and New England won the game. It’s hard to picture last year’s Patriots forcing those interceptions and beating an offense as good as Kansas City’s.

The defensive improvement is a credit to linebackers coach Brian Flores, who took over many of the coordinator responsibilities when Matt Patricia became head coach of the Lions after the Super Bowl. Flores is expected to become the Dolphins’ head coach after the Patriots’ postseason run ends, and the way the Patriots’ defense has performed this season suggests that the Dolphins found themselves a good coach.

j/c...

Prediction:

Patriots
Saints

I hope the Pats do not make the Super Bowl.

Predictions, no credit to me because I waited until the final 4. Whatever.

Oh my gosh, I thought the Patriots were down,... then they play last week, and, Oh my gosh, Bellichic was playing possum again

I think the Patriots are going to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl,

and it will be most Anti-climatic and we've seen it before, no fun indeed.


Only way to be a feel good story, in my opinion is if the Chiefs win it all and Andy Reid gets one, or gets past Bellichic,

So, Brain says, Patriots beat the Rams in a game only Patriot fans will like.


Hopes say, It'd be nice to see the Chiefs win it, because they are a new face, so to speak.

OHH! Except for Mahommes comes across as a spoiled rotten young person, and I'm no fan of that.

you do realize the league is set up to help offenses that don't move the ball very well, to look like they score a lot of points, especially this year,
well, more and more every year.

Don't touch the Qb, that's a first down,

Heck, the Browns gave up a first down on roughing the passer on a simple hug and fall on top of him to the ground,
a classic " textbook" Sack, and it got automatic 1st 15 yards

plus pass interference being a spot foul, and for years called on just about any contact.

plus, New rules to call in the grass/ grasp, when the Qb is about to fumble for a defensive score.

plus defensive holding is an automatic first down

plus, offsides on the defense is a free opportunity to throw downfield without threat of int.

plus a hard tackle can be targeting, and an automatic first down, and kick a defender out of the game.

The league,

has never been more set up for a good defensive team to be the reason a team wins a game 40-34.

I think I missed a few examples I wanted to include.

( Do you know of any automatic 4th down, penalties?)

He's 23 years old and the most gifted athlete QB in the history of the NFL. Any of us would be spoiled/bratty in a similar situation. As long as he doesn't commit any crimes I'm OK with it.

I think we have a Saints-Patriots Super Bowl and one of the two QBs wins and then rides off into the sunset, going out on top.
My prediction is Brees wins.

I wanted a Pats and Eagles rematch. Why? I just don't care to see the Saints and Rams in the Super Bowl. They don't bother me, they just don't excite me. Seeing Foles in there trying to dismantle the Pats and establish another Wentz-free championship while also seeing Bill&Tom attempt to avenge last years beatdown, that would have been "good TV" to me.

I can't pick which NFC team I want over the other. I suppose I defer to the Saints just because it would be a good finish to the career of Brees. Plus, everyone is already slobbery over McVay, him getting to the Super Bowl will just be even more annoying.

I suppose I'd want to see Pats vs. Saints. The Chiefs are new blood and exciting, but I won't ever bet against the Pats until Bill&Tom are retired. For crying out loud, this is their 13th (8th consecutive) AFC title game together. I've only witnessed 13 Browns playoff games in my life (Bill&Tom have been to 39 in total). Man, that would be nice to see in Cleveland.

Final Prediction:

Rams 33
Saints 37

Pats 27
Chiefs 21

It's Wednesday at 5pm I wonder what Bellichic is doing right now, (cept criticizing me for not capitalizing the word Wednesday... oh, auto correct fixed it.)

Bellichic, we all know he outworks everybody, and he thinks more than anyone else of what to do to win.

Bellichic is famous for taking your guy outta, your best player and neutralizing him forcing you to beat Bill Bellichic's team with some other (non-best-player-on-your-team) option.

So I'm wondering how this applies, to the ... Chiefs, ... Rams,,, and then the Saints, in that order.

Honestly, the SAINTS, are the uhh team that's most forgettable in this final 4 in my opinion, there's really not a lot to look at for N.Orleans, except maybe Alvin Kamara, and yeah, the same ole superstar quarterback they've been trotting out there for decade,
Other than that, what do the Saints have.

Bellichic, he's got Andy Reid's number, but how would the rule of taking away their best player, apply to the Chiefs?

Really thinking its going to be a Rams, and Patriots Superbowl.

Not that I want it! it's just inevitable.

It's probably the Patriots year, to win again.

The first SB after party to be sponsored by (See the Patriots stars, Brady, Gronkowski, and Edelman, are OLD by NFL stadards,)

So, the first Super Bowl after party to be sponsored by, (make up your own punchline) .

Can't wait for these games. I think they both have potential to be great. I get with the NFL you could easily get two stinkers, but you have 2 legendary QB's left, with 2 future guys.

As much as I can't stand the thought of seeing the Patriots in the Super Bowl again, I have to admit a Brady/Brees showdown would be amazing.

Any combination of these teams would be awesome

I don't like predictions, but I kinda feel like we're going to see NE/NOR.

I think the Rams are really good, and I'm not really a home field matters kind of guy, but the Saints are just a different beast in the dome, and they got the rust off after a shaky game against Philadelphia. I think they are going to be ready to go.

The Chiefs are capable of pulling off a win against New England, but I just wonder if Andy Reid can outcoach BB. I read in all of Belichick's years with New England, his teams have only given up 40+ points 7 times, and 3 of those were from Reid coached teams.

So I think he's good at scheming up a team to prepare for New England, but I think it's just those 2nd half adjustments, and late game decisions that do him in. He's 2-6 lifetime against Bill.

I think the other thing is, for as good as Mahomes is, he's still a rookie, and the Pats seem to eat up rookies.

I just wonder realistically how long can this go on for? Will Brady have a decline, or will it just be one day he's just completely lost it all. It's just incredible the level of dominance both Brady and Belichick have maintained for so many years. Boston fans are cocky and obnoxious, but I don't think they're wrong when they say Brady and Belichick are the best quarterback and coach in the history of the game.

Saints versus Parriots.

Patriots.

If you give Tom Brady the ball with 1 minute left in the game needing a score and you stop him. Whether its 41-33 or 17-9 or 83-75, to me that counts.

7-1 so far (thanks Cody) so this is probably where it all falls apart.

NFC: (2) Los Angeles Rams at (1) New Orleans Saints - I'm taking the Saints at home. Could be a shootout, however both teams have respectable D's and very good run games. I'm going with the experienced QB at home here.


AFC: (2) New England Patriots at (1) Kansas City Chiefs - This is a tough one, it's like Mahomes can do no wrong, and he's surrounded by weapons. If there was ever a time for Chokey Reid to win a Super Bowl, it's with this QB and high powered offense.
Even so, I have to take Bill & Brady here. I have to believe Bill will out scheme Chokey, and Brady will take advantage of their D. We'll see.

Those Browns left for Baltimore,thankfully Bellichek and co.didn't go with them.

...two thumbs up!

Only because Modell fired him. I wonder what would have happened if Belichick had got his hands on Baltimore's post move roster? Thank goodness we never found out.

I think NO being at home makes the difference. Close game, saints pull away late, win by 10.

Chiefs by 7. Goodbye Tom, don't let the door hit ya on the way out.

I'm rooting for the old guys, Brady and Brees.

"Age, experience, and a little treachery will beat youth and enthusiasm every time," - Willie Nelson

jc

There are some short clips in the link that complement the text: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2019/film-room-new-englands-offense

Film Room: New England's Offense
by Derrik Klassen

It was not Patrick Mahomes who carried the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. A press-heavy Chiefs' defense posted a stunning performance by holding the Indianapolis Colts' offense to six points, with the Colts only finding the end zone late in the fourth quarter. Though Mahomes could have carried the team if need be, the defense enabled the offense to coast through the second half and toward a victory.

In short, the Colts were not equipped to present a diverse threat to the Chiefs defense. From Week 12 and on, when Jack Doyle left the lineup for the second time, the Colts ran 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) 81 percent of the time, third-highest behind Green Bay and Atlanta, according to Sharp Football. Aside from T.Y. Hilton, however, there was not enough wide receiver talent on the Colts roster to be an 11 personnel offense. In turn, the Chiefs' cornerbacks played press coverage for much of the game and bullied the Colts' poor receivers out of countless passing routes. Rookie head coach Frank Reich made precious few adjustments and stayed in 11 personnel 96 percent of the game, playing right into the hands of a mediocre Chiefs' defense.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady present a different set of problems, though. The Patriots are not an 11 personnel offense, and they will make it difficult for you to press their wide receivers, even if they only have one truly good one in Julian Edelman.

Since Week 12, the Patriots have operated out of 11 personnel just 52 percent of the time. Only the San Francisco 49ers played out of 11 personnel less often over that span, clocking in at 37 percent. In that time, the Patriots sport the second-highest rate of 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end), again only outdone by the 49ers.

The Patriots' use of running backs, particularly in the passing game, will be Kansas City's first hurdle. The Colts did not target a running back even once in 36 attempts during the divisional round against the Chiefs. By comparison, 19 of Brady's 44 attempts in the divisional round versus the Los Angeles Chargers went to running backs, and 17 of those attempts were completed. One of the only two incompletions to a running back was a blatant drop by James White on a screen.

The two following plays from split-back 21 personnel feature the outermost running back heading to the boundary to zip up the field, while the opposite running back crosses the formation.



The first example, which was New England's first play of the game, has Rex Burkhead (right) and James White (left) in the backfield. Burkhead books it up the sideline to clear out the area and White takes a deep path across the formation to catch a pass 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. With safety Derwin James (33) matching Burkhead and safety Adrian Phillips (31) backing up to the first-down marker, White is able to roam free.

In the second example, the Patriots open with the same routes from the backs, but instead of getting the ball to White on a swing route, the offensive line leaks out for a screen. A dominant Patriots offensive line is able to move the Chargers' defensive front with ease and give White enough room to bob and weave for a 25-yard gain.

Oddly enough, the Chargers favored safeties over linebackers to help deal with short, YAC-focused throws such as these, but New England's understanding of how to clear and generate space put those players in a bind. The Chiefs will not be able to press these running backs the way they did the Colts' receivers, and with a terribly unathletic linebacker corps trying to cover that space, things could get ugly on the perimeter for Kansas City.

The Patriots can also dissuade press coverage by stacking wide receivers behind or close to each other, often closer to the formation than to the sideline. Edelman, in particular, can commonly be seen motioning out of the backfield, across the formation, or from outside the numbers into the slot in order to create a look like this.



In this first-quarter play, Edelman starts in the backfield with Brady, while a running back is split far outside the numbers to the left of the formation. As Chargers defenders are scrambling to get into proper assignments versus New England's unorthodox pre-snap set up, Edelman is motioned out to the right behind Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski pushes up the field to cut off cornerback Desmond King's (20) angle on the out route that Edelman runs from the slot. Because Edelman started in the backfield and motioned to a slot position off the line of scrimmage, the Chargers never got a chance to get close to Edelman the way they wanted to, resulting in an easy completion.



This time in the red zone, the Patriots motion Edelman from out wide to a stacked position with Phillip Dorsett. The Chargers could not have pressed both receivers from this position if they wanted to, especially with Brady snapping the ball before Edelman got set. As the smash concept unfolds, both Chargers defenders over the stack key on Edelman, who runs the quick out route. Dorsett is then left free to win over the top for the score.

Belichick's calling card as a coach has always been deception. For the better part of two decades, Belichick has duped defenses into thinking one thing is coming, then beating them with another. It is a rudimentary idea on paper, but few coaches actually pull it off consistently well versus a wide range of opponents. Belichick is in a tier of his own in that regard. Some of what he cooked up against Los Angeles is just another reminder of that.



Edelman and Gronkowski are on the right side of the formation, with Dorsett and Chris Hogan (15, in the slot) to the left. Upon the snap, Edelman and Gronkowski shuffle forward as if they were blocking to help sell the play action. Edelman continues with the bluff until James (33) passes him off as a non-threat, and Edelman uses that lapse in judgement to dart into the flat and force the Chargers' deep-third defender to come down to tackle him. This play is not genius in itself, but what it allows for later, is.



On New England's second go at this concept, Cordarrelle Patterson replaces Edelman on the right side and Gronkowski is motioned from left to right. To the left of the formation, Hogan is now on the outside and Edelman is slotted inside of him. The two Patriots to the right bluff run-blocking assignments just like the last time, again with the receiver shooting back outside to the flat. This time, however, Los Angeles' deep-third defender bites on the flat receiver and the entire second level of the defense gets sucked into the play-action fake. So many Chargers defenders being tied up near the line of scrimmage gives Edelman just enough time to beat them over the top and put the Patriots in the red zone again.

For a Chiefs' defense that experienced a fluky shutout last weekend, facing a Patriots offense that is much better equipped to get around their style of play should be a concern. The makeup of the Colts offense in that game is nothing like what the Patriots will show in terms of personnel, diversity, and deception. They are a different beast.

Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will not be able to just line defensive backs up in press coverage across the board again. The Patriots' offense will demand more, both heading into the game and with in-game adjustments over the course of the action. Mahomes and the offense may grant the defense a sizeable cushion, but as we have all seen before, no lead is safe from the Patriots offense, and no one defensive plan will keep them quiet.